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Anthony Redd
80 Dime NC State
80 Dime NC State
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Rocketman Sports Sweet Sixteen Slaughter Friday! 63% RUN!
by Rocky Atkinson
Indiana vs Kentucky 9:45 PM EST
Play On: 3* Kentucky -9
Indiana is 27-8 overall on the season while Kentucky comes in with a 34-2 overall record this year. These two teams met earlier in the season and Indiana gave Kentucky one of their two losses winning 73-72. Kentucky shot 55.4% from the field in their last game vs Iowa State and 50% from three point land. Kentucky is scoring 77.1 points per game overall this year while allowing only 59.5 points per game overall and 59.2 points per game on the road this season. The Favorite has covered eleven of the past thirteen meetings in this series. Kentucky has covered nine of the last twelve overall between these two teams. Kentucky is the overall #1 seed in the tournament and they prove why here tonight. We'll play Kentucky for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, RockyComment
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Joe D'Amico's Slam Dunk Game of the Year
by Joe D D'Amico
Today's winner is Kentucky over Indiana. This is my Slam Dunk Game of the Year.
Can you say REVENGE? Kentucky lost to Indiana, 73-72 in their only meeting earlier this season. After that, the Wildcats won 24 straight before dropping to Vanderbilt. But returned to spank both Western Kentucky by 15 and Iowa State by 16 points. UK is just about the most athletic squad in the nation at both ends of the court. Freshmen, Davis and Kidd-Gilchrist have evolved into potential lottery picks. The Forward's are combining for 25.8 PPG and 17.6 RPG. Davis also leads the nation in blocks, averaging almost 5 BPG. Lamb, Jones, Teague, and Miller round out the six-man starting rotation. All six players are averaging just about DDs or higher each game. With Jones III out due to a knee injury, we must question the overall depth and athleticism of Indiana. As a team, the Hoosiers lack the height and the muscle to outrebound the 'Cats here. In the first meeting, IU hit 60% from beyond the arc. That won't happen again. OK, Indiana lost to such team as Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin twice. But what about their losses to such mediocre teams like Minnesota, Nebraska, Michigan, and Iowa? All of whom, Indiana was favored over. The favorite in this series is 11-2 ATS the L13 meetings. The Hoosiers are 3-9 ATS their L12 games played vs. the Wildcats, 5-13-1 ATS their L19 games played at a neutral site, and 1-5 ATS their L6 games played vs. the SEC. The Wildcats are 9-4 ATS their L13 NCAA Tournament games played as a favorite, 6-2 ATS their L8 games following an ATS win, and 5-1 ATS their L6 games played against the Big 10.
Take Kentucky.
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WUNDERDOG
Game: North Carolina + Kentucky + Kansas at Parlay (7:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: Parlay -145 (moneyline)
While upsets occur often in the NCAA tournament in early rounds, once we get to this point, big upsets are rare. The teams that are supposed to win (big favorites) rarely lose after the first round. In the later rounds, certain favorites are very good bets to win straight-up on the moneyline. I have developed a system to identify these gems and over the past eight years, this system has gone 51-3 in predicting these late-round moneyline winners. Playing these teams individually on the moneyline is expensive (you have to risk a lot to win a little). But, if we parlay them together, we can get a decent price. The three qualifiers today are the Tar Heels, Wildcats and Jayhawks. The chances that any of these teams loses today, in my opinion, is very low (under 10%). The chance that all three lose I estimate to be around 30%. The "fair" odds on a bet that has a 70% chance of winning is -235. Yet, we get -145 on a parlay of these three teams to win straight-up (moneyline parlay).
That's great value. Put these three teams in a moneyline parlay. If all three win (by any amount), we win this bet.
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Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
NC State/ Kansas Under 143: Defense and more defense will be played in this one. The Wolfpack come in allowing just 62.6 ppg on 41.4% shooting in their last 6 games, while on the road this year they have allowed just 63.4 ppg on 38.5% shooting. Kansas had a great year offensively and they did enter the tourney scoring over 75 ppg and hitting over 48% of their shots, but they have been stymied in their two tourney games, putting up just 64 ppg on 39.2% shooting. On the flipside we have a NC State squad that has been solid offensively all year long and they have averaged 72 ppg in their last 7 games, but were able to put up just 66 in their last game vs a good Georgetown defense and tonight they will be taking on a very good Kansas defense. The Jayhawks have allowed 61.5 ppg on just 38.1 % shooting this year, while away from home they have been even better, allowing just 58.9 ppg on a mere 37.9% shooting. Kansas' last 5 games have averaged just 135.2 ppg, while their neutral games have put up just 133.4 ppg. For NC State their last 5 games have averaged 135 ppg, while their neutral games have put up 140.4 ppg. I really do not expect a full out run and gun game here, but what I do expect is a lot of defense from two teams that have been pretty good at that end of the floor. Mid 130's at best here.
3 UNIT PLAYS
NC State +8.5 over Kansas: Two real Cinderellas are left in the sweet 16 and this NC State squad is one of them. Kansas may be 7-1 SU in their last 8 games, but just 3-4 in those games and they did struggle with Purdue in their last game, plus the first half with Detroit. NC State comes in on a 6-1 SU run, while in those games they have gone 6-0-1 ATS. Their lone loss of the 7 games was by just 2 points to Carolina in the ACC tournament. NC State has really stepped it up on the defensive end of late as they have allowed just 62.7 ppg on 41.4 % shooting in their last 6 games, while on the road this year they have allowed just 63.4 ppg on a mere 38.5% shooting. Kansas came into the tourney averaging over 75 ppg, but in their 1st two games they have put up just 64 ppg on just 39.2% shooting. Kansas has played good defense this year and they have allowed just 58.9 ppg on 37.9% shooting away from home this year, but State has averaged 72 ppg in their last 7 games. Current form shows us that State is playing better ball and while they might not win outright they will still have enough on the defensive end to keep this one close.
Ohio +10.5 over North Carolina: The Heels have had all week to prepare for the loss of Marshall, but I'm not sure it will help them pull a blowout here. This Ohio team is good as they come in 29-7 overall and 10-1 in their last 11 games. Defense has been the name of the game for this Bobcat team as they have allowed just 61.8 ppg on 41.8 % shooting this year and just 58 ppg on just 42% shooting in their 1st 2 tourney games. Carolina likes to get out and run, but the key to their running game is Kendall Marshall and his 9.8 apg so they may struggle in the transition game a bit here, plus the Bobcats really have the ability to get back and stop the break. Carolina has not played all that bad defensively as they have allowed 66.8 ppg on just 39.4% shooting, but in their last 5 games they have allowed 70.4 ppg on 44.3 % shooting, while on the road tis year they have allowed 69.2 ppg. OHIO puts up a solid 68.9 ppg on the road this year, while overall they have averaged 69.8 ppg and they should have success vs this mediocre Carolina defense. Not saying that the Bobcats can win outright, but the loss of Marshall will hurt the Heels running game and that will allow this solid Ohio defense to keep this one close. Carolina by no more than 5 points.
OTHER PLAY
2 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky -9.5 over Indiana: Gonna go the square rout in this one. I just feel the Cats are still smarting from that last second loss to the Hoosiers earlier in the year and they would like some payback in this one. I feel that ISU may be a bit better that the Hoosiers and Kentucky waxed them by 16 and that was with no payback in mind. 8 of Kentucky's last 9 wins have been by at least 9 points, while their two tourney wins have been by DD. Kentucky has put up 81 and 87 points in the tourney thus far and while Indiana has played good defense in the tourney, this is still a team down the stretch has allowed 74 points to a mediocre offensive team in Purdue and 79 points to a weak scoring Wisconsin team in the Big 10 tournament.Indiana can score and Kentucky has has allowed 71 points in 3 of their last 4 games, but they have still allowed just 59.5 ppg on 37% shooting on the year. Still 71 points by Indiana may not be all that bad as I expect at least 82 points from the Cats here. Kentucky by 12+ in this one.
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