3-25-12

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NCAA Previews & Picks: North Carolina vs. Kansas

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (-2, 144)

THE STORY: Two of the most successful programs in college basketball history meet in the Midwest Regional final in St. Louis when the No. 2 seed Jayhawks face former coach Roy Williams and the top-seeded Tar Heels.

The teams have split four previous meetings in the NCAA tournament – all of them in the national semifinals or championship game. Both teams survived upset scares in the Sweet 16 on Friday, as North Carolina outlasted Ohio in overtime and Kansas held off a late charge from N.C. State.

ABOUT NORTH CAROLINA (32-5): The Tar Heels were not themselves against Ohio – the offense was out of sync without point guard Kendall Marshall (wrist), and star Harrison Barnes endured a difficult shooting night. North Carolina was able to use its size advantage to dominate the boards, and center Tyler Zeller scored 20 points and grabbed a career-high 23 rebounds. But the Tar Heels won’t find such a mismatch inside against the Jayhawks, who boast a formidable post duo in National Player of the Year finalist Thomas Robinson and 7-foot center Jeff Withey.

ABOUT KANSAS (30-6): The Jayhawks notched their 30th win for the third straight season with the 60-57 win over N.C. State, advancing to the Elite Eight for the second year in a row and the fifth time in nine seasons under Bill Self. Kansas’ path has not been an easy one, though. The Jayhawks got off to slow starts before rallying to beat No. 10 seed Purdue and the 11th-seeded Wolfpack, and they squandered an eight-point lead with less than four minutes left before holding on against N.C. State. Robinson had another big game Friday with 18 points and 15 rebounds for his school-record 26th double-double of the season and his 24th consecutive game scoring in double digits.

TRENDS:

* Jayhawks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 vs. Atlantic Coast.
* Tar Heels are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral-site games as underdogs.
* Under is 16-5 in Jayhawks' last 21 non-conference games.
* Under is 4-1 in Tar Heels last five NCAA tournament games.

TIP-INS:

1. Kansas (2,068) and North Carolina (2,065) rank second and third in all-time victories behind Kentucky (2,087).

2. North Carolina is 18-7 all-time in the regional finals and is trying to advance to the Final Four for the 10th time since 1988.

3. Withey’s 10 blocks Friday matched a Kansas record and moved him into first on the school’s single-season blocks list with 126.

Pick: North Carolina

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Where the action is: UK-Baylor total unfairly inflated?

The last two Final Four contestants will punch their ticket to New Orleans Sunday when the South and Midwest Regions conclude. But before the final horn sounds, bettors will have their way with the odds from these Elite Eight matchups.

We talked to Mike Colbert, race and sportsbook director for Cantor Gaming in Nevada, about where the early action is for Sunday’s two games – Kentucky vs. Baylor and Kansas vs. North Carolina.

No. 1 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 3 Baylor Bears – Open: UK -7.5 Move: UK -8

The Wildcats opened as sizable favorites against the No. 3 Bears after a 102-90 shootout with Indiana in the Sweet 16. The public jumped on Kentucky after that offensive display and has pushed the spread to -8.

“Baylor is long and good inside and they rebound well, which will help against Kentucky,” said Colbert. “But Kentucky is more skilled and will eventually wear them down.”

As for the total, the number opened at 148 and has drawn some early bets on the over. Colbert isn’t sold on the opening total but respects the action coming in on the over.

“Kentucky is probably the best defensive team in the country and Baylor isn’t bad either,” he says. “I think that 148 is bit inflated after last night’s game. Both these teams play good defense. I think it should’ve opened around 146, but they’re betting the over.”

No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks – Open: KU -2 Move: KU -2.5

Cantor Gaming opened Kansas as a 2-point favorite and has held steady at that spread while other books have jumped half a point. Colbert is a bit surprised that the Jayhawks were posted as the favorites versus the No. 1 Tar Heels and says Friday’s overtime thriller with Ohio is the cause.

“It really got made from (Friday’s) game,” he says. “I would have said North Carolina -2 or maybe, after that game, a pick’em. This is a surprising one.”

Colbert also takes notes that the Midwest Region final takes place in St. Louis, which should make for a pro-Jayhawks crowd, and that UNC point guard Kendall Marshall is still a question mark with a wrist injury.

“I don’t think he’s going to play,” says Colbert. “It’s something we are monitoring very closely heading into this one.”

The total opened at 144 points and has dropped half a point to 143.5. Cantor has taken a small amount of the money on the under but hasn’t received any sharp money on the over/under as of Saturday afternoon.

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DCI CBB

Season
Straight Up: 3925-1258 (.757)
ATS: 1780-1870 (.488)
ATS Vary Units: 5038-5550 (.476)
Over/Under: 1797-1858 (.492)
Over/Under Vary Units: 2148-2268 (.486)

NCAA Tournament
Midwest Regional Final at Edward Jones Dome, St. Louis, MO
North Carolina 73, Kansas 72
South Regional Final at Georgia Dome, Atlanta, GA
Kentucky 76, Baylor 69
CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament
Semifinals at Logan, UT
UTAH STATE 79, Oakland 75

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DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 446-235 (.655)
ATS: 364-347 (.512)
ATS Vary Units: 951-858 (.526)
Over/Under: 342-364 (.484)
Over/Under Vary Units: 703-800 (.468)

Phoenix 101, CLEVELAND 98
MINNESOTA 108, Denver 105
ATLANTA 95, Utah 92
BOSTON 98, Washington 86
SAN ANTONIO 97, Philadelphia 89
OKLAHOMA CITY 99, Miami 98
PORTLAND 100, Golden State 96
L.A. LAKERS 97, Memphis 90

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DCI NHL

Season: 373-275 (.576)

Edmonton vs. COLUMBUS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
WASHINGTON 3, Minnesota 2
FLORIDA 3, N.Y. Islanders 2
PITTSBURGH 3, New Jersey 2
Nashville vs. CHICAGO: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
Boston vs. ANAHEIM: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
St. Louis vs. PHOENIX: TOO CLOSE TO CALL

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NCAA Basketball Picks

Kansas vs. North Carolina

The Tar Heels look to take advantage of a Kansas team that is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games against teams with a winning record. North Carolina is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Tar Heels favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MARCH 24 Time Posted: 6:30 a.m. EST

Game 717-718: Baylor vs. Kentucky (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 71.131; Kentucky 81.032 Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 10; 143 Vegas Line: Kentucky by 8; 148 Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-8); Under

Game 719-720: Kansas vs. North Carolina (4:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 73.426; North Carolina 74.235 Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 1; 147 Vegas Line: Kansas by 2; 143 Dunkel Pick: North Carolina (+2); Over

Game 721-722: Oakland at Utah State (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 59.511; Utah State 63.456 Dunkel Line: Utah State by 4; 148 Vegas Line: Utah State by 5; 152 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+5); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

Nashville at Chicago

The Blackhawks look to take advantage of a Nashville team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a road underdog. Chicago is the pick (-145) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackhawks favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MARCH 25 Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Edmonton at Columbus (3:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.648; Columbus 12.619 Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-120); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+100); Under

Game 53-54: Minnesota at Washington (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.608; Washington 10.936 Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-200); 5 Dunkel Pick: Washington (-200); Under

Game 55-56: NY Islanders at Florida (5:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.201; Florida 11.323 Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Florida (-170); 5 Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+150); Under

Game 57-58: New Jersey at Pittsburgh (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.849; Pittsburgh 12.279 Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-190); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-190); Over

Game 59-60: Nashville at Chicago (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.165; Chicago 12.395 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-145); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-145); Over

Game 61-62: Boston at Anaheim (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 10.825; Anaheim 12.534 Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1 1/2; 4 1/2 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 63-64: St. Louis at Phoenix (9:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.549; Phoenix 11.060 Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-125); 5 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-125); Under

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 822- 595 (57 %) over the last 3 years PLUS

Free winner Sun NBA Denver

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Angels -117

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Cappers Access

Kentucky
UNC

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JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 198 bet. Portland and Golden State

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The Popular Choice

5* Kent -8
5* Heat pk

[Mr. IWS]

Thanks for knocking out these service plays the last couple weekends homie.

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Falcon Sports

Top Program Play

Kansas -1.5

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Jimmy Boyd
NBA | Mar 25
Washington Wizards vs. Boston Celtics Boston Celtics -10-101 at 5dimes
FREE PLAY
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -10
Boston is finally back home following an 8-game road trip. Motivated by Friday's disappointing 13-point loss in Philly, expect the Celtics to bounce back strong against a team they have owned.

The C's have won all 3 prior meetings with Washington this season, and they have also won 3 straight at home in the series by an average of 18.3 points. Boston has also won 6 of its last 7 at home against the Wizards with those 6 wins coming by an average of 15.2 points.

Nothing has motivated the C's quite like a loss to a division rival in recent years. In fact, they are 9-0 ATS off a loss to a division foe over the last 3 seasons. They have won by an average of 12.7 points in these games. The Celtics are also 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days.

The Wizards, who are coming off a tough loss to Atlanta yesterday, are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. They are also 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. Bet Boston.