11-11-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

Bob Balfe

College Football
Ball State/Miami Ohio Under 54.5
Ball State has been explosive this year, but I think it has to do with the weak talent they have played. Miami barley has an offense and will be starting a new QB tonight. I do not see Miami scoring a lot and I do not see Ball State being to up for this game that they know is a win. The last two games between both teams have been low scoring. Sprinkle in some bad weather and I do not see a high scoring game. If Ball State gets out to a big lead they will put it on cruise control. Take the Under.

NBA Basketball
Bobcats +3 over Nuggets

NCAA Basketball
Georgia Southern +27 over Duke

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

ANDRE GOMES

2* Philadelphia -4
1* Atlanta under 188.5
1* Spurs -4
1* Detroit under 198
1* Minnesota moneyline
2* Minnesota +6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

Vegas-Runner

UNDER 5.5 (+105) OTT/MON...(1*) NHL TOTAL PLAY of the DAY...

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

Savannah Sports

NBA Basketball

3 units on Chicago under 187.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NHL GAME OF THE MONTH!
Pick # 1 Ottawa Senators (150)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

ATS Lock Club
3 Ball State -19.5
4 76ers -3.5

ATS financial
3 Over 54 Ball St./Miami O.
3 Nuggets -2.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

JB Sports:

3*Golden State - 5.5
2*Detroit - 7.5

2* Miami-Ohio +19.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

Vernon Croy's **20 Unit NHL SMASH OF THE WEEK**
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Calgary Flames (Nov 11 9:35 PM)
Calgary Flames (-145)
20 Units, Take Calgary ML, The Flames are the superior team here Tuesday night and the Leafs are just 1-4 in their last 5 games when playing with 2 days rest. The Leafs had had trouble killing penalties with opponents converting at over 45% against them over their last 5 games and now they have to play with-out Mike Van Ryan who has turned out to be one of their top defensemen. The Flames are 4-1 over their last 5 home games and the home team is a perfect 6-0 in the last 6 meetings. The Flames bounce back with s strong performance at home tonight against a Leafs team that has allowed 4.2 goals per game over their last 5 games. Take Calgary as my NHL Smash of the Week.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

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3* Philadelphia (-) over Utah [7:05pm]

Lots of folks will be wondering how a 2-4 Sixers team can be laying points to the 5-1 Jazz, making this a rare underdog trap game, and so far (with the line moving down all morning) most everyone is falling into it. The line is where it is due to injuries and other issues for Utah, as Okur will miss the game as he is in Turkey attending to a family situation, Fesenko is still in Canada due to visa issues, and Collins is out with an elbow injury. Sixers come in healthy and winners of their last two at home, by 29 and 34 points respectively. Also, disparate records have a lot to do with strength of schedule so far, and Philly's foes have a combined record of 24-17 this year while the combined records of Utah's opponents is just 14-26, with three of the games coming agains the Clippers and Thunder - both are 1-6 this year. There are a couple of tech edges in favor of the Sixers as well, so we will go against the grain of public opinion and lay the small number.

Thanks for a great six years, and Good Luck

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

KELSO

5 units Miami Oh

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

Dave M@linsky

Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls
PICK: 4* ATLANTA/CHICAGO Under

It should not be a secret as to how the Hawks have jumped out to a 5-0 opening to the season – it has all been about defense. Yet tonight’s line shows that the markets have still not fully grasped that yet.

Atlanta has gone 4-1 to the Under so far, with the only Over that 110-92 blowout of Toronto, when there was naturally a lessening of intensity for both teams on the defensive end in the latter stages of the game. And in a perfect 3-0 run to the Under on the road, the scores have fallen below the expectations by a collective 57 points, or 19.0 per game. The Hawks are 2nd to only the Lakers in points allowed per game and FG percentage allowed, and check in at #3 on our best set of defensive ratings. When we combine that level of defense with their methodical game flows (#22 in pace), it means that an opponent is going to have to execute quite well to score, and the Bulls are not in a position to do that tonight. And if anything the absence of Josh Smith, which leaves Joe Johnson as the only real go-to offensive threat for Atlanta in half-court sets, slows the pace even more.

The Chicago problem tonight is one that Vinny Del Negro certainly did not count on – instead of worrying about how to find minutes for all of the guards on his roster, the absence of Kirk Hinrich and Larry Hughes instead leaves them short-handed. Derrick Rose had to play 44 minutes in Saturday’s loss to Cleveland, much more than they would like for a rookie still trying to learn the NBA ways, but there is no way around that for now. And it is not helping matters that Thabo Sefolosha’s offense remains MIA, managing just 3.1 points per game on 34.8 percent shooting, despite having started five of seven games. But Sefolosha is an ideal defensive matchup vs. Johnson because of his size, which keeps him on the floor for long minutes tonight. As a team the Bulls are only shooting 42 percent, and they rate 23rd on our offensive efficiency charts, and that does not get better sans Hinrich, and against this caliber of defense.

This one will not be pretty to watch, with a lot of ugly stretches in which neither side finds an offensive rhythm. But that suits our purposes just fine.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

INDIAN COWBOY



Take Over 197.5 (POD) between Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Bobcats (Tuesday @ 7pm).

It always raises an eyebrow when you see 73% of the public riding a road favorite. Such is the case with the new look Nuggets at Charlotte today in their first road game with Chauncey. It is obvious by the way that the Pistons got robbed in this deal. The "answer" known as Iverson is nothing more than a poison that infects good chemistry and I can understand Joe Dumars was looking to shake things up but all he has done is to have a winless Detroit Pistons team since the onset of Iverson. But, who knows, maybe it will take some time and they will get some chemistry soon. Listen, Charlotte can play. I know it's a pain to take them sometimes, but they lost to the Raptors at home and are on a bounce-back here and this is a game they could win outright at home as the Nuggets barely got passed the Grizzlies and Mavs. Heck, I think Charlotte can win this one as they beat the Hornets at home earlier in the year. Charlotte has not lost back to back games ATS this year either. This game is likely going over as well. Bottom line is, whenever I see 72% of the public on a team on the road, and I think the home team can win outright, I either take the dog or the over. I like the over here as I think it will be an up and down game and I also like the fact that the over is 4-1 for the Bobcats when they face a team with a losing road record. In short, Bobcats are competitive in this game and will push the total over as they likely win outright.





Take Philadelphia 76ers -3.5 over Utah Jazz (Tuesday @ 7pm).

I don't know if you know this or not, but a big revenge game here for the 76ers. Remember, there is a reason why this line is -4 for the Sixers. Heck, the public prefers the Jazz here on the road at +4 slightly. But, the Sixers with last year's team got real close to defeating the Jazz so they have that bit of revenge angle. Both teams come off road losses as the Jazz lost to the Knicks on the road and the Sixers lost to the Magic on the road. Note, though that Okur is out for this game as is Harpring and Williams is doubtful. When you take all that into account plus the line movement towards Philly, a lean on the Sixers here to get it done after a loss which they have been typically very good in accomplishing. Jazz are just 1-4 ATS when they face winning teams on the road.






Take Under 196.5 between Detroit Pistons @ Sacramento Kings (Tuesday @ 10pm).


Look, I have to be frank. Detroit has not impressed me whatsoever. With the new look Pistons, they are 0-2. The Kings on the other hand are not a bad team. The Kings are 3-0 at home and 3-4 on the road. But, what is important is the fact that this team is undefeated at home and catching 7 points. The Pistons are on the public eye heavily and they are finding it very tough to cover any spread whatsoever. This team has covered 3 straight -3 spreads including Golden State, Minnesota and Memphis. This game likely goes over with the dog/over principle but the line has been steadily dropping. I like the points here with the Kings except fr the fact that Martin is listed OUT for this game which is extremely frustrating as otherwise, they would be a great play at home here. Nonetheless, a small lean on the under here. After all, without Martin, this team's scoring options are much more limited. Look, the bottom line for this game is that I really want to take the Kings. Heck, if Martin was playing you better believe this line would be Sacramento +3.5 or Sacramento +4.5 at home and I would be all over the Kings ML. But, Martin is not playing. So, that leaves me with one other option and that is to take the under. Who is going to score for the Kings? There is no more Bibby or Artest for this team. Moore? Salmons? I mean who will score for this team? Look for a half court game and a defensive battle as this game likely settles in the low 180's. The under is 8-2-2 whenever these two teams meet over the last 12 games and the under is 5-1 for the Kings after a straight up win of 10 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

Seabass

100* Vegas Steam Play--Minnesota Timberwolves

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

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[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-11-08

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