4-9-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Insiders Sports Report
4* Houston / Portland Over 196 (NBA)
3* St. Louis (Westbrook) +110 over Cincinnati (Bailey)
3* Washington (Jackson) / N.Y. Mets (Pelfrey) OVER 7½

[Mr. IWS]

Marc Lawrence

3* Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

Baseball Monday

100* Play NY Yankees (-155) over Baltimore (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

Ivan Nova has won 18 of the last 25 games when pitching as a favorite of -110 or higher and he has also won 11 of the last 15 games vs. division opponents. Ivan Nova has won 22 of the last 31 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he is 2-0 vs. Baltimore over his career with an ERA of 3.55.

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50* Play Texas (-220) over Seattle (MBL BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Atlanta (-170) over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

100* Play San Antonio (-1) over Utah (TOP NBA PLAY)
9:00 PM EST

San Antonio has covered the spread in 10 of the last 11 games when the total posted is greater than 200 points and they have also covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games when playing their 2nd game in five days. San Antonio has covered the spread in 12 of the last 14 games after covering the spread in six or seven of the last eight games and they are averaging over 113 points a game on offense over the last five games.

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays - OVER 9 RUNS (-120)
(Note: I'm risking 2.40 units to win 2 units)

The Boston Red Sox look for their first win of the season as they have plans to spoil Toronto's home opener. The Red Sox went 0-3 in Detroit over the weekend, including a crazy game yesterday which saw them lose 13-12 as they couldn't hold on to any lead. The good thing for the Red Sox is that they finally got their bats going after scoring just 2 runs in the first two games combined. The Blue Jays went 2-1 in Cleveland over the weekend scoring 7, 7, and 3 runs. Felix Doubront will get the start for the Red Sox. Last season he didn't start any games but appeared in 11 with a 6.10 ERA, 1.94 ERA and .316 opponents batting average. In 2010 he started 3 games and had a 4.11 ERA, 1.70 WHIP and .286 opponents batting average over those 3 starts. Toronto will go with their 4th starter Henderson Alvarez who started 10 games last season. Young Alvarez went 1-3 last season with a 3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and .262 opponents batting average. Take note that the OVER is 10-3-1 in the Red Sox last 14 overall dating back to last season, and 10-4-1 in their last 15 road games. The OVER is 13-4-2 in the Blue Jays last 19 games with a high total set between 9 and 10.5 runs. The OVER is also 10-4 in Toronto's last 14 home games as a small favorite of -110 to -150 and 7-0-1 in their last 8 home games vs a left handed starter. Those trends don't mean too much, but take note that the OVER is 4-1 in these two teams last 5 meetings and the OVER is 10-2 in their last 12 meetings in Toronto. Take note that Toronto has scored 13, 7, and 12 runs in each of their last 3 home openers. When these two teams face off at the Rogers Center the OVER is always a good look, and with the two young pitchers on the mound in what will be a packed and loud stadium I look for both teams to have little trouble putting up runs. Take the OVER 9 runs.

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Phoenix Suns at Minnesota Timberwolves

The Phoenix Suns (29-27, 30-26 ATS) are in third place in the Pacific
Division behind the two Los Angeles teams just 5 games behind the Lakers, and
they have moved up to within one game of the Denver Nuggets for the eighth and
final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Real playoff contenders find
ways to beat lesser teams on the road when they need to, and that is what
the Suns will try to do against the Minnesota Timberwolves (25-32, 27-30 ATS)
on ESPN2 from the Target Center in Minneapolis, MN Monday night at 9:00 ET.

The Suns are peaking at just the right time this season as they are now 4-1
both straight up and against the spread in their last five games following
a nice 125-105 blowout of those Lakers on Saturday when Phoenix outscored
Los Angeles 63-48 in the second half. It should be noted that Kobe Bryant
missed his first game in 138 contests for the Lake Show, but that should not
take away from the fact that the Suns had seven players in double-digits, led
by Shannon Brown scoring 24 points vs. his former Laker teammates. Even
Michael Redd went back in time by pouring in 23 points off the bench. Phoenix is
also now 4-2 straight up in its last six road games including good wins at
Utah and Indiana. Just about the only negative regarding the Suns recently is
that their only loss in the last five games came at Denver, a loss that
could come back to bite them in possible playoff tiebreaker scenarios.

The Timberwolves got off to a promising start this season and they were
actually a fun team to watch with the mercurial Ricky Rubio running the point
on his way to a possible Rookie of the Year season. ESPN2 probably scheduled
this game way back when in order to showcase Rubio, but everything changed
when he went down with a torn ACL that ended both his season and that of the
Timberwolves. Minnesota has gone just 4-12 straight up and 5-11 at the
betting windows since Rubio went down, and a team that was among the league
leaders in scoring with its exciting rookie distributor has now reached 100
points just twice in the last seven games. The Timberwolves are still ranked
seventh in the NBA offensively at 98.6 points per game overall, but they have
been plummeting in recent weeks and are only averaging 95.4 points over the
last five games on a dismal 42.2 percent shooting.

These clubs have met twice this season with both encounters coming in
Phoenix. The Suns beat Minnesota with Rubio in the lineup 104-95 as 4-point
favorites on March 1st, but then ironically the Wolves' first win without Rubio
also came in Phoenix in a 127-124 upset on March 12th. The Suns have enjoyed
visiting Minnesota in recent years though as they are now 5-0 straight up
and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to the Twin Cities.

PICK: PHOENIX SUNS-2.5

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS - MLB

San Francisco/COLORADO over 9½ Pinnacle
The Giants haven’t got off the mattress yet but their offense is better and scoring runs is not going to be a battle every inning like it was last year. They were swept in Arizona, losing all three games by a run but they did score 14 times. They may have to score 14 times tonight because Barry Zito starts. Zito went 3-4 with a 5.87 ERA in 54 IP last season. You would think that $126M could buy at least one year of good command but the answer is still "no." Foot injury in April cost him 2½ months. He came back for six starts, then foot and ankle woes cost him the rest of season, save for a few ineffectual September relief innings. Has been regressing dramatically every year since ’05 and the only reason he’s even near a baseball diamond is because the Giants have to pay his ridiculous contract. Rockies should get seven or more tonight and they may need it too. Jhoulys Chacin comes with more risk in 2012 than he did at this time last year. Signs of 1H growth evaporated in an epic 2H skills collapse with overall season a major step backward. He issued too many walks and Coors is unforgiving of this flaw. Chacin is still young but 2H WHIP shows the downside potential. One or both of these fragile pitchers are likely to get lit up here, especially Zito and it’s going to take a whole lot of bad luck to keep this one from going over. Play: San Francisco/Colorado over 9½ (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

CHICAGO +121 over Milwaukee Pinnacle
Milwaukee comes in with a 1-2 record and they didn’t look very good in its two losses, getting outscored 20-8. The Cubs also went 1-2 but could have easily swept the Nationals after blowing two saves in three games. The Cubbies also had a tough opening set of pitchers to face in Stephen Strasburgh, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman, yet they could’ve swept. They should find the going much easier here against Shaun Marcum. Marcum battled a shoulder injury much of this spring, and while he appeared to be healthy late in the spring, be wary of a low pitch count this early in the season. He only pitched seven innings in the spring where he went 0-1 in two starts with a 6.14 ERA. We saw many warning signs with Marcum near the end of last year that included a dip in strikeout and groundball rates and that’s a sure sign of a pitcher that could be losing it. Chris Volstad was the complete opposite of Marcum in that he was coming on the second half, posting a 3.37 xERA. Volstad also had a healthy groundball/fly-ball ratio of 51%/31% and if he can get a little tougher on lefties he could be in for a good season and certainly has more appeal taking back a tag than Marcum does spotting one. Play: Chicago +121 (Risking 2 units).

Washington +101 over N.Y. METS Pinnacle
Although it’s a small tag, the Nationals just might offer up the best value of the day. Edwin Jackson makes his Nationals debut after winning a World Series with the Cardinals last year. Jackson has already pitched for six teams so a change in scenery is not going to faze him one bit. A solid xERA history, durability and very good stuff make him worth watching again. However, this one is all about fading Mike Pelfrey. Following a spring in which he allowed 21 ER in 22 IP, Pelfrey was recently informed by manager Terry Collins that he was at risk of losing his starting role. Pelfrey provided ERAs of 3.72 and 3.66 in 2008 and 2010 despite never achieving a BPV** (for explanation of BPV see under these write-ups) above 40. Don't count on another season of luck because if he repeats his 2011 skills, he won't just lose a rotation spot, he might be out of the league entirely. Pelfrey has no upside whatsoever and has to be considered one of the riskiest pitchers in the league. Pelfrey favored over Jackson is a mistake. Play: Washington +101 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +101 over CLEVELAND Pinnacle
The Indians had a rather eventful opening day weekend with the Blue Jays in that they played an extra nine innings in the first two games, blew a three-run, ninth inning lead in the opener and held on for their first win yesterday. The Indians hit .153 in the series. Josh Tomlin has had great success at home in his career with a W/L record of 13-4. Overall, he went 12-7 last year with a pedestrian 4.25 ERA. The key to this pretty-good year was dialing in the control (21 walks in 165 innings), which makes you sort of nervous when you consider he only struck out 89. How many guys not named Maddux can sustain control like that for more than one year? Add to that an August elbow strain and the anxiety heightens a bit more. And oh yeah, he's a fly-ball pitcher with an awful GB/FB ratio of 28%/50%. Tomlin is a prime “blow-up” candidate. Chris Sale is an electric lefty that has the tools to make the transition from relief to starter. He keeps the ball on the ground (53% GB% in the 2H of 2011), has shown good command and has no lefty-righty splits. In 71 innings of relief a year ago, Sale whiffed 79 batters. These are exactly type of skills you want to wager on when looking at an underdog. The South Side offers up all the value in this one. Play: Chicago +101 (Risking 2 units).

Seattle +205 over TEXAS BET365
There are surprises every year in every sport and a 3-1 start for the Mariners makes them very worthy of a close look taking back a tag like this one. The M’s have 38 hits over their first four games while batting .266 and that’s not bad at all. A winning frame of mind gives them even more appeal. Seattle will send out Hector Noesi and there’s a lot to like about him. He has a long history of elite command in the minors. He had a 118/15 K/BB in 116 IP in Single-A. He followed that up with a 153/28 K/BB in 141 IP between High-A and Triple-A in 2010 and he showed flashes of dominance with the NYY last season. His 93.3 mph fastball velocity suggests we can't dismiss his strikeout upside nor his solid spring in which he posted a 1.50 ERA in 12.1 innings. On January 18, the Rangers signed Japanese starting pitcher Yu Darvish. In 2011, Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA in 232 innings. His ERA has remained below 2.00 each season since 2007. That’s nice, it really is but these overhyped Japanese pitchers have been nothing but a bust and until we see something from Darvish that says he won’t be, we’ll gladly step in against him. Players that couldn’t make it in the Majors go over to play in Japan. Players that hit below the Mendoza line in the Majors go over to Japan and hit .300. It’s a competitive and entertaining league with many skilled players but it’s not the major leagues. Playing for the Rangers, Darvish has a great chance to win games but in no way does he warrant being a 2-1 favorite without ever throwing a major-league pitch. Play: Seattle +205 (Risking 2 units).

**BPV (Base Performance Value)
This formula combines the individual raw skills of dominance, control and the ability to keep the ball on the ground, all characteristics that are unaffected by most external team factors. In tandem with a pitcher's strand rate, it provides a complete picture of the elements that contribute to a pitcher's ERA, and therefore serves as an accurate tool to project likely changes in ERA. BENCHMARKS: A BPV of 50 is the minimum level required for long-term success.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
MLB 11-9 Season-to-Date +$1440
Game: Miami at Philadelphia (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Miami +140 (moneyline)

The Miami Marlins are not off to a good start, but they have loaded this team to compete with the Phillies. The Phillies coughed up two games against Pittsburgh, and their bullpen has been a point of suspect for the last couple of years. The aging lineup shows no one hitting over .300 in the early going, and that was facing suspect pitching vs. the Pirates. Miami will go with a healthy Anibel Sanchez, who is more than capable of keeping the quiet Phillies' lineup in check. Cole Hamels closed out 2011 at 1-5 at home as a favorite of -110 to -150. Play on Miami.

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Jacobs Monday, April 09, 2012

3500 Dime

Yankees Over 9.5

[Mr. IWS]

BOB BALFE
4-0 RUN (100%)

Atlanta Braves -165

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Oakland A's -110

50* Washington Nationals -110

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Monday NBA *BEST BET* (22-8-1 Run)
Memphis Grizzlies -4

*24-11-1 NBA Run* Boyd's 28-9 ATS NBA *Super System Smoker*
Denver Nuggets -8

*24-11-1 NBA Run* Boyd's Monday NBA *Crunch Time Bailout*
Portland Trailblazers -3.5

*29-9 MLB Tear* Boyd's Monday 34-0 MLB SMASH!
New York Yankees ML-148

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

LAA (-160) @ MIN [1:10pm PDT]

SF @ COL (-165) [1:10pm PDT]

SF @ COL OVER 9.5 (-113) [1:10pm PDT]

MIL (-130) @ CHC [4:05pm PDT]

NYY (-145) @ BAL [4:05pm PDT]

WSH (-105) @ NYM [4:10pm PDT]

BOS @ TOR (-115) [4:07pm PDT]

SEA @ TEX -1.5 (-110) [5:05pm PDT]

ATL(-165) @ HOU [5:05pm PDT]

Record: (14-24-2 = 0.368) -$1,844

[Mr. IWS]

SuperSportsGroup MLB

NY v. Baltimore 7:05pm
PICK: OVER 9.5 Game

St Louis v. Cincinnati 7:10pm
PICK: Cards ML +115 Game

Washington v. NY 7:10pm
PICK: OVER 8 Game -105