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100* Play Detroit (-200) over Kansas City (MLB TOP PLAY) Starts at 8:10 PM EST
Danny Duffy has lost 5 of the last 6 games as a home underdog of +100 or higher and he has also lost 7 of the last 9 games when pitching with five or six days of rest. Danny Duffy has lost 4 of the last 5 home games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs and he is 0-2 vs. Detroit over his career with an ERA of 5.63.
50* Play LA Angels (-200) over Oakland (MBL BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Washington (-265) over Houston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
We’re going to split this up and play the Bobcats on both the money line and point-spread. Some are suggesting that the ‘Cats are among the worst NBA teams ever assembled. That might be true, as it’s hard to argue against a 7-52 record and a current 16-game losing streak. However, one also has to wonder what will motivate the Hornets here. New Orleans is not a desperate team. They’ve won three in a row, including yesterday’s 13-point win over Memphis. They’ll play their third game in four days here and they have just eight wins on the road in 28 tries. However, the red flag here is that the Celtics played in Charlotte yesterday and were just a 6½-point choice. The question that begs answering is if the C’s were 6½ in Charlotte yesterday, how could the Hornets be just a half point less? Either yesterday was a big underlay or this is an overlay. We’ll go with the latter because a team that is 18-42 overall should not be this significant a favorite on the road against anyone and that includes these Bobcats. Play: Charlotte +6 (Risking 1.03 units to win 1) Play: Charlotte +218 (Risking 1 unit).
UTAH -3½ over Dallas
The Mavericks arrive here seven games over .500 and in sixth place in the Western Conference. They’re playoff bound but they enter this one fresh off a four-point OT loss against the Lakers in L.A. yesterday. Dallas will play their fourth game in five nights and fourth on the road after a grueling, season long schedule that is especially unforgiving to these older teams like Dallas. Also note the time zone change and playing in the high altitude of Utah. The Jazz are a remarkable 21-8 at home. They rarely lose here catching teams’ playing the second game of back-to-backs. Utah comes in rested and with a score to settle against Dallas after losing all three games to them this season. What we have here is a strong situational play that favors the Jazz and this late in the season it has to be considered even stronger. Mavs are running on fumes and this up-tempo and highly energized host should be able to take full advantage. Play: Utah -3½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks - DIAMONDBACKS TO WIN (-132) Listed Pitchers: Bedard vs Saunders (Note: I'm risking 2.64 units to win 2 units)
Erik Bedard has had some tough luck in his first two starts. Despite allowed just 1 earned run in 7 innings in his first start and 2 earned runs in 5 innings in his second start, Bedard is 0-2 to start the season. The Pirates scored just 1 run combined in both of his starts. Pittsburgh is scoring just 2 runs per game this season and 1.83 per game on the road. As a team they are hitting just .185. Although Bedard limited the damage he did give up 14 hits over his 12 innings for a 1.33 WHIP and .304 opponents batting average. Arizona's starter tonight will also be a southpaw in Joe Saunders. Saunders went 7 innings giving up just 4 hits and 0 earned runs in a no decision in San Diego. Last season Saunders was 12-13 with a respectable 3.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average. The D'backs are doing a much better job than the Pirates with the bats, hitting .233 as a team and .253 at home. Against lefties they are hitting .279 overall and .308 at home. Arizona is scoring 4.78 runs per game overall and 5.67 at home. Take note that the Pirates who have started off 1-5 on the road are now an awful 62-150 in their last 212 road games. Pittsburgh is 1-5 in their last 6 games vs a left handed starter, and 7-20 in their last 27 games following a win. Arizona is 33-15 in their last 48 overall dating back to last season and 36-15 in their last 51 home games. The D'backs are also 5-2 in Saunders' last 7 starts and 4-1 in his last 5 home starts. Arizona is 6-2 in their last 8 home games versus the Pirates and I expect them to win tonight's game with Saunders on the mound. Take the Diamondbacks at a generous price at home versus a Pirates team that is struggling with the bats.
4-STAR Philadelphia over SAN FRANCISCO - This line is basically accounting for Philadelphia's slightly superior offense to San Francisco. That means that it considers Roy Halladay and Tim Lincecum on the surface that seems fair. However, there are some legitimate concerns about Lincecum so far while Halladay has been as good as ever. This is the first game of a three-game set here and that is not something San Francisco thrives in. The Giants are 4-15 since July 22, 2011 when playing a night game and it is the first game of the series for a net profit of $1488 when playing against. It has been particularly bad when they've had Lincecum on the hill. The Giants are 0-6 since June 17, 2011 when Tim Lincecum starts in the first game of a series for a net profit of $820 when playing against. Philadelphia is coming off an 8-2 win yesterday over New York. The scoring came late with seven runs off the Mets bullpen in the seventh and eighth innings. The Phillies are 15-3 since April 02, 2011 when they are off a game in which they scored more runs off the bullpen than they did off their opponent's starter win for a net profit of $1093. Halladay has a 0.60 ERA so far this season, winning both of his starts. The Giants are 1-5 since June 11, 2011 when Tim Lincecum starts at home vs a team that won their starters last two starts for a net profit of $675 when playing against. Lincecum meanwhile has been shelled twice. He allowed 10 baserunners and six runs. The Giants are 4-13 since June 13, 2007 when Tim Lincecum starts after he had a WHIP of at least 2 his last start and they lost in his previous start for a net profit of $1335 when playing against. Lincecum did not get out of the third inning in his last start. Tim Lincecum has produced a team record of 0-7 (-4.0 rpg) since 2009 with a total of 8 or less following a game where he worked less than 5 innings. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS: Philadelphia 4, SAN FRANCISCO 2
Mike Hook BOBCATS + HORNETS OVER 186 POINTS (2 UNITS) SAN DIEGO PADRES +112 Rockies (2 UNITS) PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -118 Giants (2 UNITS) ROCKETS AND NUGGETS OVER 206 POINTS (2 UNITS) WASHINGTON WIZARDS +13 Bulls (1 UNIT) "Buried Treasure"
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