4-27-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Milwaukee +124 over ST. LOUIS

Early season stats can be misleading, presenting opportunities where corrections are inevitable. Case in point is Jake Westbrook and his 1.31 ERA. Westbrook is 34-years old and in 11 seasons in the majors his career ERA is 4.30. With 10 walks and seven strikeouts in 20.2 frames this season, Westbrook has not only been lucky with an unsustainable 86% strand rate but he’s also been fortunate when he faced three struggling teams in Cincinnati to open the year and then games against the Cubs and Pirates. Aside from the ground balls that keep coming, everything else about his skill set screams stay away. Westbrook is a back-end of the rotation guy and will never be anything else. A notable spike in his ERA is forthcoming and it could begin here. Conversely, Yovani Gallardo is a true ace. He’s always been a bit of slow starter, as evidenced by his career 4.42 ERA in his first four starts of the year. Gallardo will now make his fifth start of the season and has a career 10-2 record in May with a 2.63 ERA. It’s not quite May but in a similar spot a year ago, Gallardo went into St. Louis on May 7 and threw a one-hitter and subsequently went six straight starts without allowing more than two runs in any of them. Anytime we can take back a price on Gallardo, we’re not going with the worst of it. Against guys like Westbrook, the philosophy is even stronger. Play: Milwaukee +122 (Risking 2 units).

Boston -109 over CHICAGO

The Red Sox are still last in the AL East and that allows us to play them at very reasonable prices. They belted the White Sox last night 10-3 and have now scored 43 runs over their past five games while batting a collective .363. They’ll face John Danks here and while Danks is a good pitcher he’s facing a red-hot Boston offense and he’s always been better in the second half. The South Side has lost three straight while being outscored 17-7. Daniel Bard has just two regular-season starts (both losses) into his transition into the starting rotation. He was the loser on April 10 against Toronto and on April 16 he was effectively wild (7 BB, 7 K) and wound up a hard-luck 1-0 loser in a duel with Tampa Bay's James Shields. Bard's xERA (3.32) is about a full run lower than his actual ERA (4.38), so there is clearly insufficient evidence to conclude the experiment has been a failure at this point. Bard has a strong groundball profile of 56%. He’s also struck out 13 batters in 12 frames. Bard has a WHIP of 1.70 due to the nine walks he’s issued but that’s uncharacteristic of him and you can expect his control to be much stronger going forward. Also note that current White Sox hitters have only 18 AB’s against Bard and have four hits in those 18 tries. Play: Boston -109 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Miami Marlins -130

50* LA Angels -140

[Mr. IWS]

Rockdemansports

BEST PITCHER SYSTEM TODAY

TAKE LA. ANGELS ML

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

St Louis/ Milwaukee Under 8: Gotta like the Pitching matchup here vs a couple of struggling offenses. Ok maybe the Brewers aren't struggling overall at the plate, but they have hit just .219, including .208 vs righties in their road contests this year. That goes along with them putting up just 3.61 r/p 9 vs righties on the road. Tonight they face a tough righty in Jake Westbrook, who is off to a solid start. with a 1.31 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP in his 3 starts this year. Jake has faced the Brewers twice in his career here (both last year) and he has a 3.85 ERA in those starts, but both games failed to score more than 6 runs. Yovanni Gallardo had a rough opener, allowing 6 ER in 3.2 innings, but he has since been very good, posting a 1.71 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Gallardo does have a 6.91 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Cards, but just a 3.31 ERA in his last 3 starts here. When Yovanni faced the Cards the first time they were a very hot hitting team, but injuries have slowed them down as they come in hitting just .212 and scoring 2.8 rpg in their last 5 games. The Cards do average 6 rpg at home, but I just don't see them putting up that kind of number here vs a hot Gallardo. Both pitchers should have good showings today as this one hits at the most 6 runs.

3 UNIT PLAYS

PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (-120) over Chicago: Can 1 inning turn a season around for a team? That may have happened for the Phils. In the first game of the Arizona series, the Phils were down 9-0 before scoring 5 runs in the 9th, to make the final a bit more respectable. They still lost that game, but their offense woke up and they went on to score 15 runs in their next two games, showing the kind of offense they do have. Now they haven't scored much at home (3.7 rpg), but they do hit well here as they have a .284 BA at the Bank. Tonight they should convert more of those hits into runs vs Paul Maholm, who is 1-2 with an 8.36 ERA overall and Dating back to last year he is now 1-6 with a 7.36 ERA in his last 7 starts. He is 2-1 with a 4.09 ERA in his last 5 vs the Phils, but haven't faced them since 2010. Roy Halladay has struggled with the Cubs of late, going 1-4 3.72 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, while in his last 2 home starts vs them he is 1-1 with a 1.50 ERA. Roy has been pitching very well out the gate as he is 3-1 with a 1.50 ERA in 4 starts, while he is 21-8 with a 2.28 ERA in 34 career starts at the Bank. The Cubs have 13 losses on the year and 10 of them have been by 2 or more runs, while all 5 of their road losses have been by 2 or more runs. Look for the Phils offense to stay hot, while Halladay will have another dominant pitching performance vs a Cubs team that has averaged just 2.9 rpg in their last 10 games and 3.17 rpg on the road. Philly by 4 or more here.

Atlanta/ Pittsburgh Over 7: Quick name the 2nd highest scoring stadium in the league this year. That's right, it's Atlanta's Turner Field. Atlanta home games have averaged 11.8 rpg thus far and that is mostly due to the fact that they have averaged 7.2 rpg on their home field so far this year. Now a big part of this pick is the fact that I just don't see A.J. Burnett having the same success as he did in his first start for the Pirates. That game was in Pittsburgh where runs have been hard to come by for any team and the Cards were without Berkman and Jay for that one as well. Now Burnett takes his act on the road and ha has struggled away from home the last 2 years, posting a 5.97 ERA in his last 33 starts away from home. A.J. hasn't pitched in this park since 2006, but he still has a 5.08 ERA in 11 career starts at Turner Field. The Pirate offense has been sluggish this year, but they have scored 5 runs in 2 of their last 3 games, so they may be coming out of their funk and should be able to grab a few runs off of Tommy Hanson, who has a 3.79 ERA in his last 3 starts and a 3.75 ERA in 2 starts vs the Pirates. He does have a 3.32 ERA in 41 career starts at Turner field and 3 Runs is all we need from Pittsburgh to at least get a push in this one. I will call for at least 9 runs here.

Boston/ Chicago Over 8.5: Is there a hotter offense in the league than the BoSox right now? I don't think so. Boston comes in hitting .356 and scoring 8.6 rpg in their last 5 games, while on the road this year they have hit .277 and scored 5.6 rpg. Today they face John Danks, who has a 5.11 ERA in his 4 starts this year. Yes 3 of the starts were on the road, but in his last 2 road start he did allow Seattle (hitting just .195 at home) 4 ER on 7 hits and 4 walks in just 6 innings of work, while at Cleveland (hitting .186 at home) he allowed 4 ER on 7 hits and 5 walks in 5.2 innings of work. In hiis last 3 starts John has a 5.30 ERA and has allowed 11 walks and 19 hits in 18.2 innings of work. Boston should be able to take advantage of all the extra baserunners here. Daniel Bard is making just his 3rd start of the year (and career) and he has a 4.63 ERA in those starts, while in his lone road start this year he allowed 5 ER in 5 innings at Toronto. Chicago only scored 3 runs last night, but this team has some pop and they do score 4 rpg at home. Look for both pitchers to struggle in nthis hitters park as this one hits DD.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Colorado/ NY Mets Over 9: The Mets have not been a great offensive team at home, averaging just 3 rpg at Citi Field, but on the road they are hitting .262 and scoring 4.5 rpg and now a solid offense takes its cracks at Coors Fields, where 11.2 rpg have been scored this year (3rd in league). The Mets also get to take cracks at Drew Pomeranz, who has a 6.75 ERA through two starts this year. He did have a nice outing at Milwaukee, but in his lone home start he allowed 5 ER on 9 hits and 2 walks in just 4.1 innings of work. The Rockies struggled on offense but this team like to hit at home, where they hit .285 and score 5.6 rpg. Neither team has faced today's pitchers, but I still see the offenses coming out on top in a high scoring game.

LA DODGERS -1.5 (+125) over Washington: I know im against the majority of everyone here, but i have a gut feeling about this one. Washington is all pitching right now and they had a hard time scoring runs in San Diego's Petco Park and must now travel to Dodger Stadium, which is not a great hitters park. The Nats have scored just 3 rpg in their last 8 games and while they have averaged 4 rpg on the road, they have hit just .230 overall and .217 vs lefties when they have taken their act on the road. Their offense won't have a great time tonight vs Clayton Kershaw, who is 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA in his 4 starts so far. Clayton is 0-0 with a 2.92 ERA at home this year, but in his last 18 home starts he is 12-1 with a 1.80 ERA. The Nats just don't have enough offense to put up many on Clayton in this one. Ross Detwiler has had a good showing in the early going (0.56 ERA), but the Dodgers have been a solid offensive group at home, where they have averaged 4.56 rpg and hit .282. The Dodgers have the better starter here, especially in this park and they have the better offense as well. look for a 4-2 or 4-1 Dodgers win here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

NY YANKS +112 over Detroit: The tigers get the pitching advantage of Verlander over Nova, but the offensive edge and the home edge clearly goes to the Yanks. Ivan Nova hasn't tasted defeat in his last 15 regular season decisions and will face a Detroit offense that is struggling as they come in averaging 2.8 rpg, while hitting just .202 in their last 5 games. The yanks have scored 6.2 rpg on .283 hitting in their last 5 games, while at home they have hit .l298 and scored 5.71 rpg. Compare that to the 3 rpg and .299 the Tigers have done on the road. Despite his solid start this year, Justin is still 11-15 with a 4.33 ERA in 36 career starts in March/ April, while he is 0-2 with a 4.00 ERA in 3 starts here. Look for the Yanks to get back to winning, while the Tigers continue their slide.

TEXAS -133 over Tampa Bay: Texas has the best record in baseball and that should continue tonight at home vs the Rays. Matt Harrison is 3-0 on the year with a 1.66 ERA and dating back to last year he is now 6-0 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 7 starts. Matt has 1 starts vs the Rays and he allowed 0 ER in 8 innings back in 2008. James Shields is 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA on the year, but he hasn't faced an offense like this yet and he is 1-2 in his last starts in this park, despite the 3.27 ERA. Texas flexed it's muscles in NYB and will now do the same at home vs another AL East squad.

[Mr. IWS]

Super Sports Group

MLB

Detroit v. NY 7:05pm
PICK: Yankees ML +110 Game

LA v. Cleveland 7:05pm
PICK: Indians ML +130 Game

Oakland v. Baltimore 7:05pm
PICK: OVER 8 Game ev

Houston v. Cincy 7:05pm
PICK: Reds RL (-1.5) +150 Game

NYM v. Colorado 8:40pm
PICK: OVER 9.5 Game +105

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* MLB FREE PICK ON OAKLAND A'S ML+118

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
MLB 59-69 Season-to-Date +$1360
Game: Oakland at Baltimore (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Oakland +110 (moneyline)

The Birds are flying high as they sit perched atop the rugged AL East through 19 games, on the strength of a four-game winning streak. After a season-opening gem vs. the hapless Twins, Jake Arrieta has found things different since as he has pitched to an ERA of over 6 in his last three starts. He will have to do better than that when facing Brandon McCarthy who has pitched to a 3.38 ERA and allowed 2 runs or less in four of his five starts this season. Arrieta has also struggled vs. teams that scored 5 runs or more in their previous game, as the O's are 0-6 in them. The A's are 4-0 with McCarthy in his last four vs. AL East, while the O's enter at 3-8 behind Arrieta vs. the AL West. The A's are dominating Baltimore at 62-24 in the last 86 meetings including 35-17 in Baltimore.
Play on Oakland.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo


LAA (-135) @ CLE [4:05pm PDT]
TB @ TEX u9 (-120) [5:05pm PDT]
KC @ MIN (-115) [5:10pm PDT]
MIL @ STL u7.5 (-125) [5:15pm PDT]
NYM @ COL (-155) [5:40pm PDT]

BOS (-110) CWS [5:10pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredicitons / Kevin

Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS TO WIN (-123)
Listed Pitchers: Gallardo vs Westbrook
(Note: I'm risking 2.46 units to win 2.00 units)

The Brewers head to St Louis after a 9 game home stand where they went 5-4 to move to 9-10 on the season (3-4 on the road). The Cardinals return home after a 6 game road trip where they went 3-3 moving them to 12-7 on the season (4-2 at home). The Cardinals closed it off with a win in Chicago before enjoying an off day yesterday, and will now host the Brewers. These two teams met at the start of the month in Milwaukee with the Cards winning 2 of 3. Yovani Gallardo will go tonight for the Brewers, and he is 1-1 on the season with a 3.65 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average. His one rough start came against the Cardinals as he went just 3.2 innings giving up 7 hits and 6 earned runs with 5 walks. Jake Westbrook takes to the mound for St Louis and looks to improve on his 2-1 record. Westbrook has a low 1.31 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and .189 opponents batting average over 20.2 innings of work. Take note that the Brewers are 0-4 in their last 4 road games, and 4-18 in Gallardo's last 22 starts as a road underdog. The Cardinals are 19-7 in their last 26 home games, and 8-1 in their last 9 games following an off-day. The Cardinals are 4-1 in Westbrook's last 5 starts following a quality start in his last start. The Brewers are 1-4 in their last 5 meetings in St Louis, and 0-5 in Gallardo's last 5 starts vs the Cards. Also take note that the Cards are batting .260 vs righties while the Brewers are batting just .226 vs righties as a team. St Louis is scoring 6 runs per game at home so far this season while the Brewers are giving up 5.29 against per game on the road. I like St Louis at home tonight as favorites.

Washington Nationals @ Los Angeles Dodgers - UNDER 6 RUNS (+100)
Listed Pitchers: Detwiler vs Kershaw
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.00 units)
Tonight we should see a pitching dual in Dodgers, as Ross Detwiler goes up against Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw. Detwiler is 2-0 this season with a 0.56 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and .193 opponents batting average. He has only worked 16 innings over his three starts, but his latest outing was his longest at 6 innings. Over those 16 innings he has given up only 11 hits and 1 earned run while striking out 15 and walking just 4. Clayton Kershaw looked stellar in Houston in his last start. Kershaw went 7 innings giving up 3 hits and 0 earned runs while striking out 9. On the season he is 1-0 with a 1.61 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and .213 opponents batting average. The Nationals are averaging just 3.63 runs per game this year, but allowing just 2.63 against and a lower 2.22 against on the road. The Dodgers are scoring 4.21 runs per game, and allowing just 3.58 against (and a lower 3 runs against per game at home). The UNDER is 26-10 in the Nationals last 36 games overall, 18-8-1 in their last 27 games as a road underdog, and 6-1 in their last 7 with a total set at 6.5 or lower. The UNDER is 10-3-1 in Detwiler's last 14 starts overall, and 4-1-1 in his last 6 road starts. The UNDER is 6-2 in the Dodgers last 8 games overall, and 5-2 in their last 7 home games with a total set at 6.5 or lower. The UNDER is also 9-2 in Kershaw's last 11 home starts, and 8-2 in his last 10 home starts with a total set at 6.5 or lower. It's tough to wrap your head around betting on UNDER 6 runs, but it might help you to know that the Nationals totals have gone UNDER 6 runs in 6 of their last 8 games. With two of the best pitchers in the NL so far this season going head to head I expect runs to be at a premium. Take the UNDER even with this low total.

[Mr. IWS]

VSI:
3 Unit Play. Take Nashville -160 over Phoenix Conference Semifinals (Best of 7 Series Price)

6 Unit Play. #930 Take Minnesota -115 over Kansas City (8:10p.m., Friday April 27)

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
2-Unit Play. #4. Take Phoenix -105 over Nashville (Friday @ 9pm est)

[Mr. IWS]

DOC Sports
3-unit Play Take #927 Boston Red Sox (-110) over Chicago White Sox (8:10pm ET)

[Mr. IWS]

Jason Sharpe
5 Unit Play Take #927 Boston -108 over Chicago (8:10pm est):

[Mr. IWS]

Allen Eastmen
MLB
910 stl -125……………………2 units
924 balt -125…………………1.5 units