4-29-12

[poopoo333]

Sports Wagers MLB

L.A. Angels +101 over CLEVELAND Pinnacle
Boy, 254 million doesn’t buy you what it used to. Albert Pujols is batting .226 with four RBI’s and no jacks. They could have got a guy to do that for about $100,000. All kidding aside, Albert will wake up soon and the Angels are likely going to start winning some games too. The Halos are 7-14 but they’re not a .333 team. Their awful start allows us to take back some value on them and that’s precisely the plan. There’s also a big correction forthcoming in Earvin Santana’s numbers. Santana is 0-4 with an ERA of 7.23. Santana is a stable, second-tier pitcher that has been consistently good for years. The reason for his high ERA is a 65% strand rate and that’s just bad luck. All of his numbers are skewed the wrong way but don’t expect it to last. Derek Lowe is the complete opposite with a stellar ERA of 3.00. However, he’s allowed 32 hits in 24.2 innings for a BAA of .323. His WHIP of 1.67 doesn’t coincide with a 3.00 ERA. In 24 innings, he’s walked eight and struck out eight. Lowe's four starts look like a continuation of his late-career skills slide but it hasn’t shown up in his ERA yet. That likely ends here. Play: L.A. Angels +101 (Risking 2 units).

[poopoo333]

Jimmy Boyd

5* Memphis Grizzlies -5.5

4* Texas Rangers -120

[poopoo333]

Turner

MLB so far:
11-10-2
+8.1 U

Game: Houston at Cincinnati
Pick: Cincinnati -1.5 (+110)

Yesterdays free pick was a winner. For today it is: Boston Celtics +1,5

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

30 dime trifecta

Spurs Over
Lakers Under
Hawks

40 Dime twins

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers NHL

Updated series price after game 1
Nashville -110 over PHOENIX Pinnacle
Eventually the Coyotes good fortune is going to run out. They were dominated in round 1 by the Blackhawks but Mike Smith stole the series and the Coyotes advanced. They were completely dominated in game 1 of this series but Predators goaltender, Pekka Rinne did not make one big save when needed and the Coyotes won 4-3 in OT despite playing the entire game in their own end. The good news is that the Preds scored three times and while Smith was brilliant again, three goals is very likely going to win against this offensively challenged host 80% of the time.game The Preds are -123 in this game but if they win here, they will then shoot up to about -180 in the updated series price and therefore we’ll play them to win the series. The Predators are simply the vastly superior team that should be up 1-0 while the Coyotes can’t keep winning games by being so badly outplayed. Play: Nashville to win series -110 (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

Philadelphia/NEW JERSEY over 5½ +120 Pinnacle
The Flyers and Penguins played a crazy series that broke records in the goal scoring department. The total for game 1 was 6 under -120 and by game 6 it was 7 over -120. The thinking is that this series is going to be much tighter and that Philadelphia will focus more on defense. While that may be true, there’s an old cliché that suggests a leopard can’t change its spots. The Flyers are an offensive juggernaut. They have plenty of people that can put the puck in the net. What they don’t have is a reliable goaltender that can steal a game or two for them. Nor do they have a shutdown defense. Ilya Bryzgalov is shaky both mentally and physically. He thrived in Phoenix in his three-year stint there in the regular season because nobody cared or paid attention. As soon as the playoffs began and the spotlight that goes with it, he froze. And how about New Jersey? One team in its series with Florida scored at least three times in every game. Had Florida had some goal scorers, they would’ve won because Marty Brodeur was average at best. The Devils are known for their defensive play and this total is based on their reputation. They’re simply not a defensive team anymore. There were an abundance of scoring chances in their series against Florida and every game, with the exception of one, had five or more goals. Asking for one more from these two is not a stretch. For this game to stay under 5½, both defenses and goaltenders are going to have to be stellar and that’s very unlikely to happen. Play: Philadelphia/NEW Jersey over 5½ +120 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Brandon Lovell

30 Star MLB
Dodgers +103 over Nationals

[Mr. IWS]

Super Sports Group

MLB

Houston v. Cincinnati 1:10pm
PICK: OVER 8.5 Game -105

LA v. Cleveland 1:05pm
PICK: Indians RL (-1.5) +160 Game

Arizona v. Miami 1:10pm
PICK: OVER 7 Game ev
PICK: D'Backs ML +160 Game

Washington v. LA 4:10pm
PICK: Dodgers ML -105 Game

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
200,000* White Sox
100,000* Clippers

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 8.5 Royals/Twins

50* St. Louis Cardinals ML-120

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

SUNDAY

100* Play San Antonio (-11) over Utah (TOP NBA PLAY)
1:00 PM EST

San Antonio has covered the spread in 15 of the last 18 games when the total posted is between 200 and 209.5 points and they have also covered the spread in 23 of the last 31 home games. San Antonio has covered the spread in 26 of the last 36 games when playing six or more games in ten days and they have also covered the spread in 12 of the last 16 games coming off three or more OVER the totals.

50* Play Denver (+4.5) over Los Angeles Lakers (BONUS NBA PLAY)

50* Play Boston (+1.5) over Atlanta (BONUS NBA PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

MEMPHIS -5½ over L.A. Clippers

Of all the first round series this one is being considered to be the closest matchup. Yet, the Grizzlies are a bigger favorite than the Lakers are over Denver both in game 1 and in the series. Why? Perhaps the sharp odds makers know something that mostly of us don’t. Perhaps the Clippers inability to make free throws makes them vulnerable in the fourth quarter. The Clip Joint also lacks bench strength and while they do have two legit stars in Blake Griffin and Chris Paul, the talent takes a significant drop after that pair. The Grizzlies, meanwhile, are well-balanced, playoff experienced after last year’s fascinating near upset over Oklahoma, extremely well-coached, own a strong bench providing the ability, talent and desire to end this series quickly and efficiently. Gilbert Arenas has exceeded expectations since signing with the Grizz. Everywhere you look, be it offense, defense, coaching, shooting or points in the paint, Memphis has something strong to offer. The Clippers do not and while the line looks enticing to Clipper backers, this is playoff basketball and it’s an entirely different feel and intensity level than the Clippers have seen in a long, long time. Play: Memphis -5½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Boston/ATLANTA under 179½

This series has plenty of bulletin board material to go along with two clubs that despise one another. Kevin Garnett called Jeff Teague "a nobody" earlier this year and the Celtics basically tanked a game in Atlanta last week based on the arrogant logic that they didn't need home-court advantage to beat the Hawks. The Celtics also know they they’re not going to outrun and/or outgun anyone. Expect the defensive intensity to be turned up in this one, as Boston is a playoff team that wins with defense and that’s all there is to it. In the two games that these played with their starters during the regular season, Boston won them both by scores of 79-76 and 88-86 in OT. With no bench and no centers to speak of, there’s nothing to suggest that this one will produce 30 or 40 points more than those two aforementioned regular season games. Play: Boston/Atlanta under 179½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[poopoo333]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

3 UNIT PLAYS

Kansas City -114 over MINNESOTA: Might as well just copy and paste this play from yesterday. LOL The Twins have been horrible in day games this year, going just 1-6 and they have been outscored by 2.3 rpg in those games. Today they look for Jason Marquis to get their 2nd day win of the year, but it will not be easy as he has been bad so far, with a 7.15 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in his 2 starts. Making matters worse for him is the fact that the Royals bats have waken up, averaging 6.3 rpg in their last 3 games and those numbers should continue vs a Minnesota team that has an ERA of 6.20 at home this year. Minnesota has put up 6 runs in each of their last 2 games and they hit .293 at home, but they will take on a tough pitcher in Bruce Chen today. Chen has has some bad luck as he has a 2.52 ERA and a very good 0.92 WHIP, but he is 0-2 in his 4 starts, while the royals are 0-4 in those starts. The Royals have averaged just 1.5 rpg in his starts, but that should change today vs this bad twins staff that has a 7.3 ERA in their last 5 starts overall and a 6.20 ERA at home on the year. Oh yeah the Minnesota starters have an ERA of 9.49 in their last 5 games. Getting away from home has really helped this Royals team as they are starting to play like they were supposed to this year. They have dug themselves a big hole, but with the teams ahead of them struggling there is still time and winning games like this are a must. Look for Chen to get his first win of the year are the Royals run their win streak to 4 games.

Boston -123 over Chicago: Gonna ride a hot Boston team here. The Red Sox can hit, we all know that, but last night they showed they can pitch as well as they won the game 1-0 and 2 shutout innings from their beleaguered pen.The Boston Pen has now posted an 0.66 ERA in their last 5 games after such a rough start. Boston has given up just 7 total runs in the series and today they send out Josh Beckett, who looks to be rounding into form after a rough start. Josh allowed 7 ER in 4.2 innings in his opener vs Detroit, but have since gone 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA in his last 3 starts. Boston is just 1-2 in Josh'd last 3 starts here, but he has a good 3.42 ERA in those starts and will be taking on a struggling White Sox offense here. The ChiSox come in having scored just 2 rpg and have hit just .198 in their last 5 games, while at home they have averaged just 3.5 rpg and have hit just .223 for the year. Boston scores 5.6 rpg on the road, including 7.5 rpg on this current trip and they should be able to put up some runs on Gavin Floyd, who is 1-3 with a 3.60 ERA. Being held to 1 run last night will not make this Boston offense happy and they should explode for more runs today, while their pitching continues to dominate this weak hitting Chicago team.

LA Angels/ Cleveland Over 8.5: Really looks like Vegas wants you to take the Under in this one as the stats really don't add up to 8.5 runs, but I feel we will see the offenses break out today. Ceveland has put up just 2.4 rpg over their last 5 games, while at home they have hit just .203 and have scored just 3.2 rpg, but tyhey should breakout today vs Ervin Santana. Ervin comes in with a 7.23 ERA overall and an 8.18 ERA on the road, but more alarming is the fact that he has allowed 10 HR's in just 23.2 innings of work so far, including 6 in just 11 innings of road work. Ervin has a career 4.83 ERA as a starter on the road and a 4.57 ERA in his career during March/ April. He hasn't pitched that badly here with a 3.60 ERA in 5 starts, but he does have a 4.29 ERA in 11 career starts vs the Tribe overall. Derek Lowe has faced the Halos just once since 2008 (last year) and he allowed 3 ER on 5 hits and 5 walks in 6 innings of work in that game. He has pitched very well at home with an 0.69 ERA in 2 starts, but that kind of number won't last, especially vs a strong LA offense that is really looking to breakout. Other than Ervins shitty pitching the numbers just don't add up to 8.5 runs in this one and that is why I will go the other way. The offenses are due for a big game and they should get it today vs a bad pitcher and an overachieving pitcher.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

NY Mets/ Colorado Under 9.5: The Pens are bad, but these two starters should go deep. Plus we have two lefties in this one. See stat above.

NY YANKS -1.5 (+105) Over Detroit: Yanks offense should have field day vs Scherzer, While CC quiets Detroit's bats. Easy Yanks win here.

1 UNIT PLAYS

Washington/ LA Dodgers Over 6.5: I know the stat above, but have a good feeling that this one will put at least 7 runs on the board.

ST LOUIS -1.5 (+178) over Milwaukee: With Jay back in lineup the Cards offense is hitting once again and they have outscored their opponents by 3.88 rpg at home on the year. Anther easy win by St Louis here.

[poopoo333]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

San Antonio/ Utah Under 207: (Added) I know playing an Under and on a DD favorite isn't the best course of action, but I really feel this will be a one-sided game with less than 200 points being scored. The Spurs can and have scored a ton of points lately, but this is a team that plays excellent defense, especially at home, where they have allowed just 93.8 PPG. Utah has allowed 99 ppg on the year (102.2 on the road), but in their last 9 games (regulation only) they have played pretty good defense, allowing just 93 ppg over that stretch. The Jazz offensive numbers look pretty good in their last 7 games overall, but two of those games went to OT and that leaves them scoring just 97.1 ppg, in regulation, over that stretch. The Spurs have played some high scoring games of late, but they have been the ones doing all the scoring. Spurs home games have averaged 199.5 ppg and they have outscored their opponents by 11.9 ppg in those games, so this game can stay under the total and the DD fav can cover as well. 107-92 looks about right here.

3 UNIT PLAYS

SAN ANTONIO -10.5 over Utah: Gonna look to the Spurs in this one. They are playing like the best team in the league right now and and they are 28-5 at home and have outscored their opponents by 11.9 ppg on their home floor, including an average of 19.8 ppg in their last 5 at home. The Spurs have averaged 105.7 ppg at home this year on 49% shooting, while Utah has not played good defense on the road, allowing 102.2 ppg on 46.7% shooting. Utah has been one of the better offensive teams in the league this year, but they will have a tough time keeping that up vs a Spurs team that has allowed just 93.8 ppg on their home floor. San Antomnio is clearly the better team here and they will wear down this depth-deprived Jazz team in the 2nd half and walk away with an EASY series opening win here.

Denver +4.5 over LAKERS: The Lakers are 26-7 SU at home this year, but they have gone just 7-16 ATS in their last 23 at then Staples Center. The Nuggets closed out the regular season winning eight of their final 10 games including each of the past four by an average margin of 18.0 PPG. Their high scoring offense should present some problems for the Lakers here and wear them down in the second half. Denver is 7-3-1 the last 11 in the series and with the way they closed out the year I feel that are primed to pull the upset here. I expect the nuggets to win game 1 outright here.

OTHER PLAYS

1 UNIT PLAY

Boston +1.5 over ATLANTA: The Celts have had a chance to rest some of their starters down the stretch, so this tea, should be a bit fresh and the fact that the playoff games will be spread out a bit should help them stay fresh through the series. I don't feel the Hawks matchup well with the Celts here, especially in the low post where they just don't have the size to compete with the bigger Celtics. Atlanta has been good on offense down the stretch, averaging 108 ppg in their last 5 games, but it will not be that easy vs the rested Celtics, who have allowed just 89.3 ppg on the year and 90.6 ppg in their last 5. Atlanta's defense has been solid this year, but in their last 4 games (all at home) they have allowed 99 ppg. Atlanta will miss Horford in this series and their defense just isn't the standard of Bostons. The Celtics have been on a tear in the 2nd half of the year and will start this series with a small upset win.