5-1-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets -129 over HOUSTON

J.A. Happ has spent the past two seasons fighting off injury and poor performances in hopes of regaining the effectiveness of 2009, when as a rookie he was a part of the Phillies’ World Series run. But a rising flyball % creates a rising hr/fly rate which creates a rising ERA. It's that simple. Happ has already been tagged for four jacks in 23 innings over four starts. His poor control has not shown up in the walk department yet with just nine in 24 innings but he’s throwing a lot of pitches (103 in his last game in 5 innings), which suggests he’s throwing a lot of balls and deep into counts. Happ is a fourth or fifth starter and will face the Mets quiet ace, Jonathan Niese. Niese is improving each year and with each start. A high groundball rate (51%) combined with a high strikeout rate combined with a low walk total is all the ingredients for success. Niese is 2-0 with a 2.81 ERA and he’s likely to stay around that mark all season. Also note that the Astros are 1-4 against southpaws and that’s unlikely to improve against this tough lefty. Play: N.Y. Mets -129 (Risking 2 units to win 1.55).

Arizona +130 over WASHINGTON

The Diamondbacks have picked it up lately with three wins in their past four after a rough start to the year. The slow start can largely be blamed on their bullpen, a unit that couldn’t record outs for the first 15 games and compiled an ERA near 8. However, the Snakes have played 16 of their 22 games at extreme hitter’s parks (13 at home and three at Coors) so don’t put too much weight into it. Trevor Cahill’s surface stats suggest he’s struggling but his skills say otherwise. It begins with an outstanding 59% groundball rate. In his two road starts at Colorado and San Diego, Cahill went a combined 13.1 innings and allowed six hits and two runs. His xERA trend has been decreasing for three years running. His skills strongly suggest to stick with him. Jordan Zimmerman is another solid starter in the Nationals’ rotation. Zimmermann's now sitting on a 1.33 ERA and 0.70 WHIP through four starts, unsustainable numbers for sure but representative of the massive talent in that right arm of his. The problem is run support from a Nationals team that has dropped four in a row and is batting .180 over that span. When a team is struggling at the plate, they are too risky to be spotting a tag against a hot team and that’s precisely the case here. Play: Arizona +130 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

FantasySportsGametime

Baseball Tuesday

100* Play St. Louis (-180) over Pittsburgh (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST

Pittsburgh has lost 61 of the last 90 road games as an underdog of +150 to +200 and they have also lost 25 of the last 39 games coming off a win by four runs or more. Pittsburgh has lost 100 of the last 165 games coming off an OVER the total and they have also lost 85 of the last 126 road games when the total posted is between 7 and 8.5 runs.

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50* Play Tampa Bay (-200) over Seattle (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play New York Yankees (-200) over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Jim Fiest

Western Confrence 1st Round GOY - Lakers

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers

It must be playoff time, because like they seemingly do every season at
this time of year, the Los Angeles Lakers (42-25, 29-38 ATS) turned up the heat
in Game 1 of this first round series with the Denver Nuggets (38-29, 36-31
ATS). The game was not even as close as the 103-88 final score as the Lakers
were on cruise control for most of the fourth quarter with the outcome
never in doubt. Kobe Bryant showed no ill effects of his injured shin as he led
the way with 31 points and Andrew Bynum had a unique triple-double with 10
points, 13 rebounds and an NBA Playoff record 10 blocked shots, becoming the
first Laker to record a playoff triple-double since Magic Johnson. Los
Angeles hopes to keep its momentum in Game 2, which is set for Tuesday night at
10:30 ET at the Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA. The game will be carried
on TNT.

Granted, the Lakers were not as good as past seasons during the regular
season, but most of their difficulties came on the road. They are now 27-7
straight up here at Staples combining the regular season and playoffs, winning
those games by an average of +6.3 points. The problem for their supporters
though is that they are usually favored by much more than that and that is the
reason that they are just 17-17 against the spread in those games. However,
they were only favored by 4 points in the Game 1 blowout and the line on
Game 2 figures to be the same. LA was just 13-16 ATS as a home favorite
during the regular season, but that record improved to 9-7 when favored by 4
points or less at Staples, a pattern that continued in Game 1. Of course it
helped that the Lakers shot a blistering 50.0 percent from the field at
43-for-86 while limiting the Nuggets to a scant 35.6 percent shooting. Considering
that the Lakers are shooting 45.7 percent for the season while allowing
opponents to shoot 43.6 percent, do not expect those percentages to be
duplicated on Tuesday.

Now, the reason for the small spread was that the Nuggets were a hot club
entering the playoffs, ending the year on a four-game winning streak and
going 11-4 straight up and 10-5 ATS in their final 15 games, Denver led the NBA
in scoring with 104.1 points per game and the Nuggets' fast break and
transition game are a joy to watch when they get going, which the Lakers did not
allow to happen in the series opener. The problem for the Nuggets this season
was that they often allowed points just as quickly as they scored them,
ranking 29th out of 30 NBA teams by allowing 101.2 points per contest, with
only the Sacramento Kings being worse (104.4). However, the Nuggets tightened
up a bit defensively at year's end, allowing 97.6 points per game during that
final 15-game stretch while actually increasing their scoring average to
106.0 points. This series is far from over if Denver can return to that form.

Game 1 did stay 'under' the posted total of 203 as the Lakers did an
excellent job of forcing Denver into a half-court game, and that ran the 'under'
to 35-17 in the last 52 head-to-head meetings between these teams including a
perfect 7-0 in the last seven matchups. Those last seven meetings have
averaged just 190.3 points, well below the posted total of 203 in Game 1, so
keep an eye on what the number is here.

Pick: Denver Nuggets +5

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

TUESDAY

100* Play Denver (+5) over LA Lakers (TOP NBA PLAY)
10:30 PM EST

Denver has covered the spread in 35 of the last 49 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they have also covered the spread in 20 of the last 27 road games after covering the spread in four or five of the last six games. Denver has won 16 of the last 21 games coming off a loss by fifteen points or more and they are averaging over 104 points a game on offense in road games this season.

50* Play Philadelphia (+6.5) over Chicago (BONUS NBA PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* NY Mets -125

50* Cleveland Indians +115

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

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***TOP PLAY*** 5* 14-0 ATS NBA Playoffs
Denver Nuggets

Boyd's 9-1 MLB Tuesday Night SMASH
Washington Nationals

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS - NHL/NBA


Game 2
New Jersey/PHILADELPHIA over 5½ +119 Pinnacle
As long as the books keep offering us juice at this posted total, we’ll continue to play it that way. In game one, the contest went over this total with about nine minutes left in the third period but let’s not forget that one goal was scored in the first period in an early start on Sunday. Those early starts don’t have the same excitement level or feel as a night game and both teams were a little flat to begin. In game two, other than the preferred start time, nothing has changed. Both teams still possess numerous goal scorers and shaky goaltending. Expect a quicker pace tonight than the one we saw in game one and expect this one to go over the total earlier than the last one. Play: New Jersey/Philadelphia over 5½ +119 (Risking 2 units).



Game 2 Denver +6/+210 over L.A. LAKERS Pinnacle The Lakers built a big lead in game one and cruised to an easy 15-point win. Now the entire betting world is coming back on them here and that’s usually a red flag. The Lakers won by owning the area around the rim and they received a productive night from Jordan Hill, who gave them a double-double. When Hill is unproductive, it can be a different story and after being charged with choking his girlfriend yesterday, his mind could be elsewhere. The Nuggets will be better tonight. Denver probably had the best overall bench this season, as it featured Al Harrington who became a consistent matchup problem for his defenders. Point guard Andre Miller was sensational while Corey Brewer is "instant defense" and Denver's best runner in transition. The Nuggets also have 7-foot centers in Kosta Koufos, JaVale McGee and Timofey Mozgov to muscle this opponent down low. Denver can pound the paint and defend the paint much better than they showed in game one. The Lakers were rested and ready for game one. Adjustments are made in game two and it’s not going to be as easy this time around for the home side Play: Denver +6 (Risking 1.1 units to win 1) Play: Denver +210 (Risking 1 unit).

[Mr. IWS]

401 K SPORTS

Tue plays
1* KC/Detroit over 5 ist 5 inn (-110) - If you can't get 1st 5 then I still like the full game. The pens are fuly rested so I like the 1st 5 inn better. While you can still find some 8.5 for heavy juice, this line is changing towards 9 as I write this. The starters Porcello and Hochevar have had very little success in the past vs the other team's hitters. Combined the Tigers are hitting .333 in over 130 AB. KC is hitting .301 with a 5.40 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP off of Porcello. Neither pitcher is in great form as Hochevar has been inconsistent and Porcello has been dreadful 2 starts in a row.

2** Pittsburgh/St Louis over 7 -120 (8pm) - Wainright is 7-3 vs Pitt but with an almost 5 ERA. The hitter/pitch splits have Pitt having a good night. Only Maghee has never has any success off Wainwright. Morton has had even less success. He is just 2-6 vs the Cards with a 5.87 ERA. Berkman, Craig, Molina, Shumaker and Beltran have all hit over .400 in 15+ AB's off Morton. After a slow start the Pitt offense has come around nicely.

1* Colorado -110 over LA Dodgers(8:30pm) - I am going small here as something just doesn't add up. I should be going big on Dodgers but something about this line says Rox will win. The Rox are even here despite the 5 game better record of LAD. Lilly has a 0.90 ERA. Lilly is 8-2 lifetime vs the ROX. Chacin has been really inconsistent this year and has had some really bad games vs Dodgers in the past. This line should be LAD -130 or so

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies - DODGERS TO WIN (-101)

Listed Pitchers: Lilly vs Chacin

(Note: I'm risking 2.02 units to win 2.00 units)

The Rockies moved to .500 on the season (11-11) with a 6-2 win last night against the Dodgers. The loss brought the Dodgers to 16-7 on the season and 6-5 on the road. Tonight the Dodgers will have Ted Lilly on the mound. The southpaw is 2-0 on the season with a 0.90 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and .189 opponents batting average over his three starts. He has allowed just 9 hits over 20 innings of work and only 2 earned runs. Last year he went 3-0 with a 2.66 ERA against the Rockies, and will look to keep that going tonight. He will be facing Jhoulys Chacin who is 0-2 on the season with a 5.85 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, and .256 opponents batting average over his 4 starts. He has lasted more than 5 innings just once and has given up 20 hits and 13 earned runs over 20 innings of work. Note that the Dodgers are hitting .247 against righties with a .331 on base percentage, while the Rockies are hitting just .227 against lefties with a .289 OBP. Also take note that the Dodgers are 41-17 in their last 58 overall, 15-6 in their last 21 games as a road underdog, and 7-2 in their last 9 vs NL West opponents. The Dodgers bounce back well from a loss going 10-2 in their last 12 games following a loss. Los Angeles is also 5-1 in Lilly's last 6 starts, and 4-0 in his last 4 road starts. The Rockies are 0-4 in their last 4 games following a win, and 1-9 in their last 10 home games vs a left handed starter. The Rockies are 5-15 in Chacin's last 20 starts overall, and 1-4 in his last 5 home starts. Lilly has been a the much better pitcher this season and has a 8-2 lifetime record against the Rockies and Colorado isn't hitting well against lefties. I'm on the Dodgers as small underdogs.

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo

OAK @ BOS (-165) [4:10pm PDT]

CHC @ CIN (-155) [4:10pm PDT]

MIN @ LAA OVER 8.5 (-110) [7:05pm PDT]


KC @ DET UNDER 9 (-115) [4:05pm PDT]

KC @ DET (-165) [4:05pm PDT]

MIN @ LAA (-160) [7:05pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAY

3 UNIT PLAY

Chicago/ Philly Under 176: The Bulls have played without Rose for 27 games this year and in those 27 games the average score was 180.2 ppg, compared to 187.4 ppg with him. Ok that still puts us over tonight's total, but I feel the Sixers will come out with a great defensive plan and find a way to keep the Bulls Under 90 points in this one. The Bulls have averaged 4.2 ppg less without Rose this year, but more surprising in the fact that they have allowed 2.9 ppg less without as well. That's surprising because he is one of the best defenders on the team. That may also be due to the fact that they seem to slow down the game a bit more as well without him. Chicago has allowed 87.9 ppg at home this year and they did hold the Sixers to under 40% shooting in game 1. The Sixers have struggled some defensively down the stretch, but they know that their only shot here is great defense and I feel they will come out focused at that end of the floor, plus I don't expect the Bulls to shoot 51% like they did in game 1. I really expect a bslow paced game that will not even reach 170 points.

OTHER PLAY

2 UNIT PLAY

Atlanta/ Boston Under 173.5: I know a ton of people are on the C's and that scares me a bit, especially considering the line is going up, so I will do what I do best in the NBA and that's look at the total. This low of an OU line doesn't scare me at all when looking at the UNDER in this one. Boston allowed 31 points in the first quarter of game 1, but then they did what they do best and that's lay some defense. Boston allowed just 52 points in the final 3 quarters. This team really knows how to play some defense and they will really have to clamp down at that end of the floor if they are to win this one without Rondo. Also not having Rondo will mean a slower paced game by the Celtics. Boston has now allowed 83.6 ppg in their last 5 games, while Atlanta has allowed 94 ppg over the same stretch, but I don't expect this Boston offense to come close to that number. 3 of the 4 games between these teams pout up no more than 168 points (regulation only) and I expect this one to fall in the 160's as well.

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
MLB 73-81 Season-to-Date +$1720
Game: Baltimore at New York Yankees (7:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Game Total UNDER 10.5 -110

The Baltimore Orioles have a lot more depth in their bullpen than in recent years, and their rotation is much stronger. Brian Matusz has not pitched well to start the 2012 season, but got things straightened out in his last start, allowing 0 runs. Despite the fact he hasn't pitched well, just one of his four starts resulted in 10+ runs, and that was 11. Last night was evidence of the bullpen's in action in a 2-1 New York win, as the pens allowed 1 hit and 0 runs in four innings combined. Matusz has been a momentum pitcher with the Orioles now 6-0 to the UNDER when he starts after a quality start in his previous time out. The Yankees have topped the total just six times in their last 22 vs. a pitcher with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. The UNDER has prevailed to a 5-1-1 mark in the last seven meetings. Play the UNDER.

[Mr. IWS]

SuperSPortsGroup MLB

Philadelphia v. Atlanta 7:10pm
PICK: Phillies ML +115 Game

NY v. Houston 8:05pm
PICK: Houston ML +120 Game
PICK: UNDER 8 Game

Pittsburgh v. St Louis 8:15pm
PICK: Pirates ML +160 Game