5-2-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

WEDNESDAY

100* Play Los Angeles Clippers (+6.5) over Memphis (TOP NBA PLAY)
9:30 PM EST

Memphis has lost 9 of the last 10 games against the spread and they have also lost 6 of the last 7 games against the spread when playing their 2nd game in five days. Memphis has lost 10 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off four games as a favorite and they have lost 5 of the last 7 games against the spread revenging a home loss.

50* Play San Antonio (-11.5) over Utah (BONUS NBA PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Wednesday

100* Play Detroit (-270) over Kansas City (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 1:10 PM EST

Justin Verlander has won 71 of the last 93 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has also won 28 of the last 37 home games. Justin Verlander has won 26 of the last 30 games vs. division opponents and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.57.

50* Play Tampa Bay (-200) over Seattle (MLB BONUS PLAY)

50* Play Los Angeles Angels (-235) over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Guy Murphy Sports

5* OVER 8 - NY Mets/Houston Astros

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 7 Giants/Marlins

50* Philadelphia Phillies ML-115

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

La Clippers +7 over MEMPHIS: Gotta feel the Grizzlies could feel some effects from blowing a 27 point lead to the Clipps in game 1, while La will be riding a ton of momentum here. I had the Clipps in that first game and I know i got lucky. This is just too many points for the Grizzlies to be favored by, especially vs a talented team like the Clippers, who have CP3 and Blake Griffin on it. Heading into the playoffs the Grizzlies had won 6 in a row, but those wins were vs 5 teams that are not in the playoffs and an Orlando team that was hit hard by injuries at the end of the year. Not a very impressive resume. The Clipps did struggle down the stretch, losing 3 of their last 4, which included losses at New York and Atlanta, but prior to that stretch they had won 5 in a row, which included road wins over Denver and OKC and a home win over OKC. The Clipps were certainly tested more down the stretch and it showed in game 1 as Memphis just couldn't cope with the pressure once the game got close, while the Clipps made the miraculous comeback and closed the deal in the end. Interesting stats here is the fact that the Grizzlies are 14-9 ATS combined with 0 or 3 days rest, but on 1 or 2 days rest they are 15-29 ATS combined, including 0-5 ATS when its on 2 days rest. Look for the Clipps to rid the momentum to an outright win in game two.

2 UNIT PLAY

SAN ANTONIO -11.5 over Utah: Easiest thing in the world would be to make this a top play, because the game does look so easy, but that's why I will make it a 2 Unit play. it really does look easy as the spurs have been the best team in the league for much of the second half of the year. The Spurs won game 1 by 15 and in watching the game it didn't really feel like it was that close. The Spurs have now outscored their opponents by 12 ppg at home, including by an average of 19 ppg in their last 6 at home. The Spurs have been scoring a ton lately as they have averaged 113.9 ppg in their last 11 games overall and 112.8 ppg in their last 6 at home, while they have allowed just 92.3 ppg at home on the year. Utah didn't have enough offense or defense in game 1 and they certainly won't in game 2 either.The favorite is 19-6-1 ATS the last 26, while the Host is 20-8-1 ATS the last 29. Spurs by at least 15 again in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. Mets +127 over HOUSTON

The Astros have been scrappy and very competitive recently but as a significant favorite they bring too much risk. Wandy Rodriguez has been a model of consistency. His ERA and xERA confirm that but his 1.72 ERA is unsustainable and when your xERA is more than two runs higher than your actual ERA, a correction is inevitable. Current Mets are batting .316 against Rodriguez in 79 career AB’s. It took Chris Schwinden 90 pitches to make it through four frames in his first start of the year and he gave up two home runs and five earned runs in the outing. Don’t put a lot into it, as it was at Coors and he had just been recalled to replace Mike Pelfrey. None of Schwinden’s offerings grade out as above average but he's a smart pitcher who mixes his pitches well with excellent location and command. In three starts at Triple-AAA Buffalo, he posted a 2.05 ERA in 22 frames with a BAA of .184. Schwinden uses two breaking balls, a slider and a curve, along with a change-up and his fastball can range between 83-93 MPH. Sure he has risk but as the chalk, the Astros risk is greater. Play: N.Y. Mets +127 (Risking 2 units).

Miami +113 over SAN FRANCISCO

The Marlins got a much-needed win last night and perhaps that will get them going after losing eight of their previous nine. All that aside, this one is all about taking back some juice against Barry Zito. Zito has a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP after four starts. Before you ride him, note that his skills have been mediocre again and they’re not getting better. His 88% strand rate can’t last and his fly-ball bias profile is eventually going to hurt him. Zito’s strikeout rate is on a three-year tailspin. It has shown this decline since 2009. This correlates neatly with his fastball velocity drop over the same period. This isn't a new pitcher. Carlos Zambrano is 0-2 with a 3.24 ERA. The Marlins have failed to score a single run for him in his last two starts. He is winless in four starts and deserves better. It could all work out for him here, as Zito is bound for disaster sooner rather than later. Play: Miami +113 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

In one of the biggest chokes in NBA Playoff history, the Memphis Grizzlies
(41-26, 29-38 ATS) blew what was once a 27-point lead in Game 1 of this
series vs. the Los Angeles Clippers (41-26, 34-33 ATS) as they relinquished home
court advantage in an unfathomable 99-98 loss. The Grizzlies still led by
21 points to begin the fourth quarter, only to become the third NBA team in
history to lose after a lead of that size in the final quarter by allowing
the Clippers to go an unheard of 26-1 run! Memphis must now somehow shake off
that collapse as they host Game 2 of the series on Wednesday night at FedEx
Forum in Memphis, TN at 9:30 ET on TNT.

The Grizzlies have been playing very good defense all year while struggling
with their offense a lot of times, so they must have felt very secure when
they were up 95-71 with about eight minutes left. After all, Memphis had
already reached its regular season scoring average for a full game (95.0) and
surely a defense that ranked fifth in the NBA in scoring defense (93.0) would
not let the Clippers back in the game, right? Well, to their credit, the
Clippers kept on playing while turning up the heat defensively while the
Grizzlies probably relaxed a bit, and one 26-1 run later Los Angeles took the
lead 97-96 on a very artful layup by Reggie Evans, who is not exactly known for
his scoring, with 58 seconds left. Sure. Memphis retook the lead briefly,
but two free throws by the Clippers' Chris Paul accounted for the final score
and negated the Grizzlies' season ending six-game winning streak that
enabled them to gain the home court edge in this series.

Of course it helped that the Clippers also lost their last two regular
season games after playing very well over a prolonged period, and that meant
that they finished one game behind Memphis in the standings. They did not seem
too anxious to regain home court advantage over the first three quarters
either before rediscovering a defense that had keyed a 14-3 straight up run
before losing those last two games. LA allowed 100 points only three times in
the last 19 regular season games, a streak that began with a 101-85 win over
these Grizzlies back on March 24th at home in the Staples Center. They
allowed only 93.1 points per game over those 19 contests and they final displayed
that form while allowing three points in the last eight minutes Sunday and
miraculously holding another opponent under 100 points.

It was believed that gaining home court would be huge in this series as
Memphis went 26-7 at home during the regular season and Los Angeles went 24-9
at Staples, and as you would expect, the home teams went a perfect 3-0 both
straight up and against the spread in the regular season head-to-head
meetings. That was all put to bed in the last eight minutes of Game 1 though and
the Clippers could effectively end this series with a second straight road win
here if the Grizzles show any ill effects from that devastating loss.

Pick: MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES -6

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAY

3 UNIT PLAY

HOUSTON -135 over NY Mets: Does scare me a bit to put this play as a top play as i feel that Houston should be favored by more, but we will see. Houston will not be a factor in the playoff race this year, but they are playing good ball right now and will have a chance at a rare sweep today. The Mets have really struggled to put up runs in the first two games, after killing the ball in Colorado. I thought it would continue in this hitters park as well, but the Houston staff has held them to just 3 runs in each of the first two games. It won't get easier for them today as they face the Ace of this staff in Wandy Rodriguez. Wandy is 2-2 with a 1.72 ERA in his 5 starts so far, while at home he is 1-1 with a 1.47 ERA. Wandy also has 1 day start on the year and it was a 12-0 shutout over the Dodgers. Versus the Mets he is 3-2 with a 2.91 ERA in 7 starts, while in his last 2 starts here vs them he is 1-0 with an 0.65 ERA. The Houston offense has been a big surprise gthis year as they are hitting very well, ranking 8th in scoring and 8th in hitting after ranking 26th in scoring and 10th in hitting last year. They should continue to hit well here vs Chris Schwinden, who has is 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA in 5 career starts. In his only start of the year he lasted just 4 innings and allowed 6 ER. Should he not last long then he will be turning the ball over to a pen that has a 7.67 ERA on the road this year, compared to a Houston pen that has a 2.73 ERA at home. The Astros get a shot at a rare sweep and while the Mets may have a slight edge offensively, the Astros have huge edges on the mound, in the pen and motivational as well. Look for them to complete the sweep here.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAY

DETROIT -1.5 (-120) over Kansas City: Justin should have a big game vs a team he has dominated, going 14-2 with a 2.37 ERA in 20 starts vs the Royals, while their offense should also have a good game vs Johnathan Sanchez, who is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA on the year. Can you say rout?

1 UNIT PLAY

LA Dodgers/ Colorado Under 8.5: Rockie day games have gone 7-1 to the Under this year, Including posting a 3-1 UNDER in their 4 home day games this year. Dodger games with Clayton on the mound have averaged just 6.2 rpg on the year, plus NL games with 2 lefties facing each other are 10-5 to the Under this year. I see a low scoring in Colorado today.

[Mr. IWS]

Reno Sports Advisors

3* TIGERS

4* ROCKIES RUN LINE +1.5

[Mr. IWS]

Rockdemansports

TODAYS PLAY IS OVER IN THE JAZZ/SPURS GAME

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS - NBA

Updated series price after game 1
Memphis +113 over L.A. Clippers Pinnacle
Game 2
MEMPHIS -6½ over L.A. Clippers Pinnacle
Shocking it was. The Grizzlies were toying with this group in game one and thought they had it all wrapped up with eight minutes to go and a 21-point lead. Memphis did anything they wanted but let up and it was a good lesson that you have to play for 48 minutes. The Grizzlies will very likely come back even stronger tonight while the Clippers may not win another game. Memphis executes as good or better better than almost any team in the NBA while the Clippers do not. They play smart basketball and they’re well-coached. Other than Chris Paul and Blake Griffin, the Clip Joint are simply not that talented. Paul is nursing a sore groin and the wear and tear of a playoff series is going to make him less effective as the series wears on. Vinny Del Negro is not coaching material. He has no clipboard or game plan. He just watches and hopes. The Grizzlies are loaded from top to bottom with Marc Gasol, Rudy Gay, Zach Randolph, Marreese Speights, Mike Conley, Tony Allen and more. Game one was a miracle win for the Clippers. Game 2 and the rest of the series will be a different story. Play: Memphis -6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2) Play: Memphis to win series +113 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Wednesday's Action
60 Dime winner going out on the visitang Indiana Pacers as the road favcorite at Orlando. At the time I release this selectilon, the Pacers are listed as the 3-point favorite both here in Vegas and offshore.


10 Dime bonus winner on the San Francisco Giants with Barry Zito over the Miami Marlins with Carlos Zambrano starting. Note that both listed pitchers must start, or there is no action on the release.

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo

968 Jays -118 @ 12:35p

952 Astros -153 @ 2:05p

[Mr. IWS]

AL ROGERS
5-3 RUN (63%)

4* Detroit Tigers -1.5
3* Philadelphia Phillies -115


AL ROGERS

5*Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis Grizzlies over 185