5-3-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 5/3
903 Cubs +135 @ 12:35p
906 Cards -165 @ 1:45p
908 Giants -110 @ 3:45p
914 White Sox -120 @ 8:10p
915 Yanks -130 @ 8:10p
917 Jays +115 @ 10:05p

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

THURSDAY

100* Play Oklahoma City (+3.5) over Dallas (TOP NBA PLAY)
9:30 PM EST

Dallas has lost 20 of the last 28 games against the spread after covering the spread in two of the last three games and they have also lost 9 of the last 13 games against the spread as a home favorite. Dallas has lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off two games where they had 19 or less assists and they have also lost 5 of the last 7 games against the spread when playing four or less games in ten days.

50* Play New York (+5) over Miami (BONUS NBA PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers MLB

Pittsburgh +145 over ST. LOUIS (1st 5 innings) Pinnacle
Because this wager is based solely on today’s starting pitchers, we’ll play it in the first five innings. Jake Westbrook has put him Clayton Kershaw numbers (1.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) but he’s no Clayton Kershaw. He’s the exact same Jake Westbrook that posted a 4.66 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and .290 BAA last season and who has a career 4.28 ERA in 12 seasons of employment. Few starting pitchers have been helped more than Westbrook’s 86% strand rate. His elite groundball rate of 65% is what has caused this sudden ERA dip but a numbers erosion is on the horizon because Westbrook remains one of the most hittable pitchers in the game. Erik Bedard has pitched well for Pittsburgh but his win one win against four losses doesn't show it. He owns a 2.48 ERA and has struck out 26 batters in his 29 innings of work. In his first four starts, the Pirates scored three runs combined and that’s the only reason he’s 1-4. Bedard still has the goods to be an upper-tier starter and at age 32 the stats follow, especially ERA and strikeouts. Jake Westbrook should never be in this price range. Play: Pittsburgh +145 in the first 5 innings (Risking 2 units).

Toronto +119 over L.A. ANGELS Pinnacle
When Brandon Morrow is on his game, he’s dominating. He’s always had the stuff to be an elite starter and staff anchor but just can’t get over that hump. He’s coming off a dominating performance over the Mariners and has a great chance to make it back-to-back pure quality starts. Los Angeles has some ugly offensive numbers and while they’ve won three in a row and scored 17 times, it came against the Twins Nick Blackburn, Francisco Liriano and rookie Liam Hendricks, arguably the worst trio on the same team in the majors. Prior to that, the Halos had lost six of seven. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won four of five and just took two of three over Texas. Jays have scored 37 runs over that five game stretch. Dan Haren is a consistent, underrated workhorse that puts up good numbers year after year. However, an increasing fly-ball rate that led to four jacks allowed in his first three starts in a blip worth watching. The Jays bats are going yard quite frequently these past few games and could tag Haren with a couple more. A tag on a warm Blue Jays team with a pitcher that can dominate gets the call. Play: Toronto +119 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers NBA

Oklahoma City +150 over DALLAS Pinnacle
Give the Mavericks a lot of credit for going into Oklahoma City and nearly stealing both games. Dallas could conceivably be up 2-0 in this series with some bounces going its way. However, they didn’t and they’re down 0-2 after playing two near perfect road games. The Mavs give OKC some matchup problems with their heavy dose of zone defenses but the Thunder will make some more adjustments here. Ultimately, Dallas' offensive woes give the Thunder a great chance to win game three, as the Mavericks finished 20th in the league in offensive efficiency. The Mavs have wobbled along like a one-and-done team all season long and while they'll make the Thunder look ragged and impatient at times, they’re a risky proposition at best. Ok City has a chance to win it all and this is a great opportunity to show the killer instinct needed to win a championship. At this price, the reward is too great to pass up on. Play: Oklahoma City +150 (Risking 2 units).

Miami/NEW YORK under 186½ Pinnacle
The first game these two combined to score 167. The second game they put up 198 and this game is very likely to fall somewhere in between that pair. The Heat have put up 100 points or more in both games. That’s not the way the Knicks want to play. For New York to have any chance of winning they have to play shut down defense. They have to work the shot clock and limit Miami’s possessions. The Heat are too good and too proficient to be given the number of opportunities that they had in Miami. The Knicks have to take care of the ball better and if all that comes to pass, this game will stay under because the Knicks have numerous offensive concerns against the outstanding defense of the Heat. A road game for Miami is much different than a home game. This intruder is focused and determined to make quick work of the Knicks and they know it starts with defense on the road. Miami could surely jump out to a significant lead and that’s when the Knicks will start taking impossible shots. The Knicks are in trouble and the only way this game goes over is if they hit a high percentage and that, too, is rather unlikely. Play: Miami/New York under 186½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Pro Tech Sports

5* San Francisco Giants ML+105

YTD: 26-22

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Thursday

100* Play Tampa Bay (-200) over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 1:10 PM EST

Tampa Bay has won 11 of the last 12 home games and they have also won 8 of the last 9 games vs. AL West Division Opponents. Tampa Bay has won 15 of the last 18 games coming off two wins by two runs or less and they have also won 9 of the last 11 games as a favorite of -110 or higher.

50* Play St. Louis (-165) over Pittsburgh (MLB BONUS PLAY)

50* Play NY Yankees (-130) over Kansas City (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks

The Miami Heat (48-20, 34-34 ATS) have taken a 2-0 series lead vs. the New
York Knicks (36-32, 36-32 ATS) and the first two games have been won with
totally different styles, as Miami won Game 1 with suffocating defense and
Game 2 by shooting lights out. The scene now shifts for Game 3 however to
Madison Square Garden in New York, NY on Thursday night at 7:00 ET in a game
televised on TNT. There should be an electric atmosphere in the Big Apple as
there usually is when LeBron James comes to town, but will that be enough to
propel the Knicks to a much needed win to get back in this series?

It certainly will not be easy as the Heat have already proven that they can
beat the Knicks regardless of the tempo. Game 1 was dominated by Miami's
defense in a 100-67 rout where they held the Knicks to a microscopic 35.7
percent shooting and forced an incredible 27 turnovers. The defense was not
nearly as tight in a 104-94 win in Game 2 where the Heat still covered the
spread as 9-point favorites. Miami allowed the Knicks to shoot 49.4 percent in
that contest but it still did not matter, as the Heat shot a fantastic 52.1
percent overall including 42.9 percent from beyond the three-point arc! The
scoring was spread out too as six players scored in double-digits, led by
Dwayne Wade with 25 points followed by LeBron with 19. Even back-ups Mike
Miller and Shane Battier scored 11 points apiece off the bench, and both had very
similar stat lines as each hit on three of their five attempts from
three-point land. Winning games regardless of the style is nothing new for the Heat
though, as they finished ranked seventh in the NBA in scoring and fourth in
field goal percentage on offense during the regular season, as well as
fourth in points against and fifth in field goal percentage allowed on defense.

Now the good news for the Knicks returning home is that they have been
basically unbeatable at Madison Square Garden since Mike Woodson took over as
head coach, going 11-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last
12 games here. What is the bad news, you ask? Well, the one loss came to the
Heat 93-85 on April 15th. Still, the Knicks were not embarrassed that day
and they were much more competitive in Game 2 after Miami blew the doors open
early in Game 1. The best news about Game 2 was that while Carmelo Anthony
led the way as usual with 30 points, the Knicks had four other players score
at least 12 points including J.R. Smith providing 13 off the bench. New York
will need that kind of balance if it hopes to pull off an upset here.

The Knicks have yet to beat the Heat all year as Miami swept the three
regular season meetings. The Knicks did barely cover the spread in the first
meeting of the year, losing by 10 points as 12-point underdogs, but the Heat
have covered the last four matchups. That aforementioned April 15th battle was
the only meeting in New York however, and it was the only meeting that
Miami has not won by double-digits.

Pick: NY KNICKS +5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Atlanta Braves -120

50* NT Yankees -135

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

THURSDAY

100* Play Oklahoma City (+3.5) over Dallas (TOP NBA PLAY)
9:30 PM EST

Dallas has lost 20 of the last 28 games against the spread after covering the spread in two of the last three games and they have also lost 9 of the last 13 games against the spread as a home favorite. Dallas has lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread coming off two games where they had 19 or less assists and they have also lost 5 of the last 7 games against the spread when playing four or less games in ten days.

50* Play New York (+5) over Miami (BONUS NBA PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Bases - Stl, Mia

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Pittsburgh Pirates @ St Louis Cardinals - CARDINALS TO WIN (-149) **EARLY START**

Listed Pitchers - Bedard vs Westbrook

(Note: I'm risking 2.98 units to win 2 units)
Analysis:
The Cardinals have won 5 of their last 6 games including the first two of this three game series vs Pittsburgh. St Louis has scored 22 runs over the two games (10-7 and 12-3 wins) and have improved to 16-8 on the season and 8-3 at home. The Pirates are now 10-14 and 5-10 away from home. Pittsburgh is averaging just 2.83 runs per game, while the Cardinals are averaging 5.62 per game (and a higher 7.27 at home). The Pirates send Erik Bedard to the mound, who has had some bad luck with a 1-4 record. Bedard has pitched better than the 1-4 record indicates with a 2.48 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, and .266 opponents batting average, but those numbers don't look special next to St Louis' starter this afternoon. Jake Westbrook is 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and .210 opponents batting average over his first 4 starts. His shortest outing was 6.2 innings, and he gave up a season "high" 2 earned runs against in that start. Westbook has allowed just 4 earned runs over 27.2 innings of work. Take note that the Pirates are hitting just .218 against right-handed pitchers, and have an OBP of just .270. The Cardinals are hitting .282 against lefties with a much better .356 OBP. The Pirates are 66-155 in their last 221 road games, and nothing has changed this season with their 5-10 road record. The Pirates are also 19-52 in their last 72 road games vs a team with a home winning % of .600 or higher. The Cardinals are 23-8 in their last 31 home games, 19-7 in their last 26 games as a favorite, and 4-0 in their last 4 vs a left handed starter. St Louis has taken 6 of the last 7 meetings with Pittsburgh, and everything is pointing to St Louis here again this afternoon. Laying some chalk but I still think we got a great price with the Cards today. This is an early start.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

***TOP PLAY*** 5* Thursday NBA Playoffs *BEST BET* (36-14-1 Run)!

New York Knicks +6

*INSANE 43-18 RUN* Boyd's 4* Never Lost MLB SMASH!

Anaheim Angels ML-126

[Mr. IWS]

WUNDERDOG
MLB 80-87 Season-to-Date +$2140
Game: Miami at San Francisco (3:45 PM Eastern)
Pick: San Francisco +110 (moneyline)

The Miami Marlins have won just four games on the road all season at 4-9, but two of them have come in the first two games in San Francisco. The big reason has been a bolstered lineup which is failing miserably on the road, as the Marlins have generated 13 runs in their last nine road games, or less than 1.5 per contest. They won't win a lot of games like that. Despite the pair of losses, the Giants still have a winning record at home. On the bump for the Giants is Ryan Vogelsong, who has led them to a 10-3 record in his last 13 starting in a game when facing an opponent that allowed 2 runs or less in their previous game. The Marlins on the otherhand have not been up to the task when taking on an opponent that scored 2 or less in their last game at 5-16 in their last 21. We have a live dog here, so play on San Francisco.

[Mr. IWS]

Denver Money

1* Pittsburgh Pirates +140

1* San Fransisco Giants -108

1* Seattle Marniners +163