5-4-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers MLB

Toronto +114 over L.A. ANGELS Pinnacle
Based on current form alone, the Blue Jays are worth a close look here. They came in here last night and took the opener 5-0 to extend their run to three wins in a row wins and five wins in six games. Toronto has scored 42 runs over that span. Other than beating up on the 6-18 Twins, L.A. hasn’t been able to hit anyone else. They’re averaging 1.9 runs per game against the rest of the AL and while they’re likely to wake up at some point, a struggling team is one to avoid when asked to lay a price. The Angels will face an extreme groundball pitcher here in Henderson Alvarez. Alvarez has induced more groundballs than any pitcher in the majors. Alvarez has just one win over his first five starts but could easily have four because he’s had only one poor start. Earvin Santana is 0-5 with a 5.58 ERA. Santana could be a little shell-shocked after allowing two bombs or more in four of his five starts this season. In 12 IP at home, Santana has been taken yard four times and that doesn’t bode well here against a Blue Jay team that is swinging some hot bats right now. A hot Blue Jays team taking back a tag has so much more appeal than a cold Angels team spotting one. Play: Toronto +114 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO +126 over Los Angeles Pinnacle
Chad Billingsley is 2-1 with a 2.64 ERA after posting a 4.21 ERA a season ago. While an improvement in his ERA was expected, it’s not going to remain this low and therefore some rough outings are forthcoming. When we look at Billingsley’s history at Wrigley we see a 2.41 ERA but an xERA of 4.47 after allowing 25 hits in 18 innings for a BAA of .309. When we look at his games this season, we see Billingsley has faced San Diego, Pittsburgh, Milwaukee, Houston and Washington. That’s not a difficult slate and when he pitched in Houston he got clobbered. Billingsley has always been on a roller-coaster ride and he’s simply too risky to be favored by this much on the road. The Dodgers are winning at an unsustainable .680 clip but they’re just 7-6 on the road. The Cubs are playing better with a 5-5 record over their past 10. They have a lot of exciting young players and will go through more highs and lows than most teams but will also offer up some nice value in the right spot. It’s no mystery what Paul Maholm is going to give. He’ll throw around 200 innings and win between seven and 10 games. He’ll throw the occasional gem but for the most part he’ll go about six innings and give the Cubs a chance to win. Maholm has a strong groundball profile and is less erratic than his counterpart here. Don’t overrate Chad Billingsley. Play: Chicago +126 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Tampa Bay (-200) over Seattle

50* Washington (-200) over Philadelphia

50* NY Yankees (-170) over Kansas City

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Celtics / Hawks Over 173.5

50* Braves -120

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

FRIDAY

100* Play Denver (-4) over Los Angeles Lakers (TOP NBA PLAY)
10:30 PM EST

Los Angeles has lost 21 of the last 32 road games against the spread and they have also lost 15 of the last 22 games against the spread coming off a win by six points or less. Los Angeles has lost 9 of the last 12 games against the spread when playing on a Friday and they have also lost 10 of the last 15 games against the spread coming off two or more home games.

50* Play Philadelphia (-2) over Chicago (BONUS NBA PLAY)

50* Play Atlanta (+8.5) over Boston (BONUS NBA PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

The Los Angeles Lakers (43-25, 29-39 ATS) did what they had to do while
holding serve at home in the first two games of this series vs. the Denver
Nuggets (38-30, 37-31 ATS) for a 2-0 lead, but things may not come as easily
with the change in both venue and altitude here. Game 3 is at the Pepsi Center
in Denver, CO on Friday night at 10:30 ET and it will be televised on ESPN.
Remember that the Nuggets finished strong at home this year and that the
Lakers struggled on the road, and that the suspect Los Angeles bench may see
more minutes at mile-high elevation.

The Lakers won Game 1 easily 103-88 as 4-point favorites and truth be
told, their 104-100 win in Game 2 was not really as close as the final score
either. Granted it will not do the sore losers who had the Lakers -5 in that
game any good, but the Lakers never trailed in that entire contest and the
Nuggets never got closer than the four-point final margin after trailing by as
much as 14 points in the second half in what was either a brutal or an
ecstatic backdoor cover, obviously depending on what side you were on. The
Lakers were definitely the right side though as they held Denver to just 44.0
percent shooting including a horrific 21.1 percent on three-point attempts.
Just about the only encouraging sign for the Nuggets was that they produced 30
fast-break points after managing only 19 points on the break in Game 1. As
for the Los Angeles offense, Kobe Bryant poured in 38 points while Andrew
Bynum added 27 points and nine points. Perhaps the biggest story though was
that the oft-maligned Lakers' bench scored a total of only eight points (six by
Jordan Hill and two by Matt Barnes), and that is not what you want to see
given the bench figures to play a bit more in elevation. On top of all that,
the Lakers were not the best of road teams this year to begin with, going
15-18 straight up and 12-21 against the spread on the NBA highway.

Denver was a disappointing 20-13 at home this year but the Nuggets did
finish strong by winning six of their last seven games at the Pepsi Center. This
team led the NBA in scoring with 104.1 points per game and it loves to run,
especially at home. Look for the Nuggets to do just that at every
opportunity, which would force the Lakers to either leave their fatigued starters
affected by the running in the altitude in the game or go to their unreliable
bench more than expected. The best way for Los Angeles to prevent that is
with stiff defense, but as oftentimes happens with teams up 2-0 in a series, we
are not so sure the Lakers will be playing at the same intensity as the
more desperate Nuggets, who should be breathing fire from the get-go as they
try and get back in this series.

Now the Nuggets do have history on their side as teams returning home down
0-2 in a series are 91-49 straight up and 73-61-6 ATS since the 2000-01
post-season. However, this head-to-head series has not been kind to Denver as
the Lakers are now 5-1 straight up in all the meetings this year combining
regular season and playoffs including 1-1 here in Denver.

Pick: Denver Nuggets -4

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

DENVER -4 over L.A. Lakers

The Lakers cruised to a game one victory. They had a 19-point lead in game two and held off the Nuggets to win by four but it seemed like the Lakers were in control the whole way with no real threat to lose it. Now they’re taking back four points in a series that they’ve pretty much owned and that looks rather appealing. Not so fast. These Nuggets are so dangerous. They’re quicker and more efficient offensively than any playoff team but it has not shown up in these playoffs over 48 minutes. It’s shown up in spurts but not over an entire game yet. Now the Nuggets return home in the high altitude of Denver, where the bench has a bigger impact on the outcome. Denver’s bench is deep and talented. They can run out a number of players that present numerous challenges. Some of the Nuggets best shooters were off in L.A., as Denver shot a low percentage in both games yet lost game two by just four. Then there’s Kobe Bryant. You breathe on him in L.A and a foul is called. He won’t get that luxury on the road where the Lakers lost 18 of 33 games. The Nuggets are far from done. They could warm up real quick and absolutely run over this aging intruder because they really are that dangerous. The odds makers have created a line to entice the public into betting the Lakers and most of them will take the bait. Don’t be included in that group. Play: Denver -4 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Johnny Banks 5/4

NBA

LA @ Denver - NUGGETS -175
Atlanta @ Boston - CELTICS -8
Chicago @ Philli - BULLS +1.5

NHL
Phoenix @ Nashville - PREDATORS -165

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Toronto Blue Jays @ Los Angeles Angels - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (+111)

Listed Pitchers: Alvarez vs Santana
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.22 units)

The Blue Jays took game 1 of this four game series last night lead by a great pitching performance from Brenden Morrow, moving them to 15-11 on the year and 7-4 on the road. The Blue Jays have now won 5 of their last 6 games, and have one of their most consistent starters on the mound tonight. Henderson Alvarez is just 1-2, but has a solid 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and .223 opponents batting average over his 5 starts. He has worked 6+ innings in all of his starts and has allowed 3 or less earned runs in 4 of the 5 starts. After sweeping the Twins at home in a 3 game series the Angels dropped last night's game to fall back to 10-16 on the season. Ervin Santana will be on the mound tonight for the Angels and he is off to a rough 0-5 start to the season. His last outing was his best as he went 7 innings giving up 8 hits and 2 earned runs, but on the season Santana has a 6.16 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, and .290 opponents batting average. Santana has giving up 6 or more hits in all of his starts, and 21 earned runs over 30.2 innings of work. Dating back to last season the Angels are 0-9 in Santana's last 9 starts, and 0-5 in his last 5 starts vs an AL East opponent. The Angels are just 1-7 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record, and 0-5 in their last 5 overall vs an AL East team. The Jays are 5-2 in their last 7 games as an underdog, and 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win. Note that the Blue Jays have taken 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two teams. The Blue Jays have scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 7 games and if they can give Alvarez that kind of run support that should set him up for his second win of the season. I like the Jays at an underdog price tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo
951 Dodgers -135 @ 2:20p
956 Pirates +128 @ 7:05p
968 Tigers -110 @ 7:05p
970 Indians +135 @ 7:05p
957 D-Backs -109 @ 7:10p
973 Orioles +150 @ 7:10p
960 Astros +135 @ 8:05p
976 Royals +150 @ 8:10p
962 Rockies +105 @ 8:40p
964 Padres +112 @ 10:05p
978 Angels -123 @ 10:05p
980 Mariners -139 @ 10:10p
965 Brewers -102 @ 10:15p

[Mr. IWS]

Lenny Del Genio: Lenny D's **EARLY** Dodgers/Cubs WINNER (2:20 ET!)
Chicago Cubs at Los Angeles Dodgers May 4 2012 2:20PM
Play on: Los Angeles Dodgers

Lenny Del Genio: Lenny D's 15* Pitching Mismatch of Week- 23-11 Run
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox May 4 2012 7:05PM
Play on: Chicago White Sox

Lenny Del Genio: Lenny D's MLB **LATE NIGHT BAILOUT** (2-0 This Yr)
Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays May 4 2012 10:05PM
Play on: Toronto Blue Jays

[Mr. IWS]

scott stylze 5/4

Early play

Cubs +125

[Mr. IWS]

4-STAR LOS ANGELES over Toronto - Ervin Santana's struggles have been much publicized. He has been miserable so far this year. On the surface, Toronto starter Henderson Alvarez has been far better but in reality it's not true. His FIP is 5.93. Santana was much better in his last start and at least has a proven track record to fall back on.
Toronto got a gem from Brandon Morrow yesterday, as he allowed three hits in a complete game shutout. The Blue Jays are 0-8 (-3.6 rpg) since August 2010 after a game where they got a complete game from their starter and did not trail by 3+ runs after seven innings. Meanwhile, LA usually rebounds after a low hitting game. The Angels are 16-0 (2.8 rpg) since August 6, 2008 with a total between 7 and 10, facing a starter with an ERA under 9.00 after a game where they had three or less hits. In just the last year, the Angels are 15-3 since May 22, 2011 after a loss in which they had 6 or fewer hits in a night game for a net profit of $1088 In his last start, Alvarez trailed after four innings but his offense eventually came through in a 7-2 win over Seattle. The Blue Jays are 4-15 since April 10, 2011 as a dog when they came back from a deficit to win in their starter's last start after playing in a night game for a net profit of $935 when playing against. Santana's last start was the fourth straight LA did not score a single run for him. He went seven innings of two run ball in Cleveland, facing 30 batters in the 4-0 loss. The Angels are 19-5 since September 22, 2005 when Ervin Santana starts at home after facing 30 or more hitters for a net profit of $1300. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: LOS ANGELES 6, Toronto 4

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Friday's Action
60 Dime winner going out on the visitang Los Angeles Lakersas the undercdog at Denver. At the time I release this selectilon, the Lakers are listed as the 4 point underdog both here in Vegas and offshore.


10 Dime baseball winner on the Miami Marlins with Johnson as they play in San Diego tonlght against the Padres who are starting Bass. Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the release.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* 17-0 ATS NBA Friday Night Feast
Chicago Bulls

5* 20-0 MLB Game of the Week
Texas Rangers

Lakers/Nuggets 4* 15-0 ATS NBA *Crunch Time Bailout*!
Denver Nuggets