5-7-12

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker
904 HOU (-110) 5dimes vs 903 Mia 2*
Analysis: I have the Astros winning here at 56.3% of the ti½me and with the current vig, I am playing for 2%..

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
Monday's Action
20 Dime winner going out on the visitang St. Louis Cardinals over the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight on the diamdond. Lynn and Saunders are your listed pitchers and both must start or this play is void.


10 Dime basketball playoff winner going out on the Memphis Grizzlies agannst the Los Angeles Clippers. At the time I release this selection, the Grizzlies are +1 1/2 points both here in Vegas and offshore.

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Best Bet - LAA
Reg - WS, Atl, Hst
NBA - Utah, LAC, LAC OVER

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

Complete Card

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Boston/ Kansas City Under 9: (Added) Ok Slap me now cause I'm really gonna follow the sharp money on this one (and you know how much I hate to do that). It does make sense. First we have two lefties on the mound and those games have gone 19-13-1 to the UNDER this year. Next we have the stat that Marco threw out there and that's the fact that all four games the Royals have played vs a lefty starter have gone under, with just an average of 5.3 rpg being scored. The Royals do hit .271 at home vs lefties, but they score just 2.2 rp/9 vs them at home, plus they have never seen Doubront, which gives the advantage to the pitcher. Felix Doubront has pitched ok on the road, with a 4.09 ERA and will be taking on a weak KC offense that has averaged just 3.7 rpg at home on the year. Jonathan Sanchez has a high 8.22 ERA at home, but that was due to 1 bad start in which he allowed 5 ER i just 2.2 innings vs the Tribe, but then came back stronger in his next home game, allowing just 2 ER in 5 innings to the Tigers. Sox players also have just a .188 BA against Sanchez, but only Adrian Gonzalez has more than 6 AB's vs him and he has just a .231 BA with 1 HR in his 39 AB's vs him. Also we shouldn't alot of late runs here as the Sox have a pen ERA of 1.57 in their last 10 games, while the Royals have a pen ERA of 2.21 over the same stretch. I expect at the most 7 runs in this one.

3 UNIT PLAYS

LA Angels -1.5 (-115) over MINNESOTA: I have a hunch. I say that Albert Pujols will finally wake up after hitting his first homer of the year last night and what better way to really do that than vs a very bad pitcher in Liriano, even though Albert is 0-8 lifetime vs him. Recently the Twins skipped Liriano's spot on the rotation, because he just wasn't pitching all that well. It didn't work as he came back in his next start and allowed 4 ER in just 5.1 innings of work to these same Angels. Let's face it, he is not a good pitcher right now and even a month off couldn't help him. Liriano is 0-4 with a 9.62 ERA on the year and in 2 starts vs the Halos this year he is 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA. Tyhe Twins have been outscored by 3.6 rpg in his starts overall and 4.3 rpg in his last 3 starts. On the other side we have Jared Weaver, who is 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA (0.78 WHIP) on the year. In 124 AB's, cyurrent twins players are hitting just .194 with 4 HR's off him.He does have some payback in mind here as the Twins tagged him for 5 ER in his lone start vs them this year, but still he has gone 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Twins. The Halos have had problems scoring this year, but not while Jared is on the mound, as they have given him 5.5 rpg worth of support, while outscoring their opponents by 3.5 rpg. The Halos are 0-2 in Jared's road starts, but tonight vs a truly bad pitcher that mini road slump should end in easy fashion. Halo's by 3+ runs here.

St Louis -113 over ARIZONA: (Added) Line movement is really keeping this from being a higher play, as 63% of of the Public is on the Cards, yet the line has dropped from -130 to -113. Ouch and would someone please stop me from talking that way. LOL Still I feel the public is right here. The D-Backs are off a long trip and teams back from a road trip of 9 or more games are just 3-5 on the year. The cards will be sending out Lance Lynn, who has a 5-0 mark with a 1.60 ERA on the year, while on the road he is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA. The Cards offense scores just 4.2 rpg on the road, but they have averaged 6 rpg in Lynn's 3 road starts and 7 rpg in his starts overall. The Cards also hit lefties at a .270 clip on the road and as far as pitching goes they have a team ERA of 2.77 on the road, with teams hitting just .220 vs them away from home. Arizona sends out Joe saunders and he has had a good start to his year, with a 2-1 mark and a 1.24 ERA overall, but he is going up against a very good offense and that means that his offense will have to step up and put up more than the 3.4 rpg they have averaged for him this year. I don't see it happening vs Lynn. D-Back starters have averaged just 6 innings per game at home and should Saunders struggle some then he will turn the ball over to an Arizona Pen that has a 5.02 ERA and a .292 BA against in their home games this year. Tomorrow may be the time to take the D-Backs as teams in their 2nd game back from a long trip are 7-1, but tonight in this spot with a Cardinals team that has the better starter and offense I will look their way.

Atlanta -117 over CHICAGO: (Added) Offense. The Braves have it right now and the Cubs do not. I know that its nothing new for a team to put up a trillion runs in a 3 games set at Colorado, but let's also note that this offense put up 6 runs on Roy Halladay and 9 more off of a solid Phils bullpen recently. The Braves hit righties at a .273 clip and score 5.7 rp/ 9 off of them on the road, while the Cubs have hit just .240 and scored 3.7 rp/9 off of righties at home. Jeff Samardzja is having a solid year, especially at home where he is 1-0 with an 0.59 ERA, but one one of those starts was vs a Cards team that had just suffered some offensive injuries and the other was vs a weak Washington offense. The Braves are healthy and hitting well, so I expect them to get to Jeff in this one. Tommy Hanson has pitched very good for Atlanta and the Braves are 3-0 in his last 3 starts. This should also be a close game and that means it should come down to the pens, giving the Braves a big advantage. The Braves are playing well right now and their offense and pitching should be good enough to get a good win tonight.

Detroit -130 over SEATTLE: (Added) Doug Fister is back to he old stomping ground and while he did go 9-16 in 34 starts in this park, he did have a 3.42 ERA during that stretch. When he was with Seattle he wasn't given much run support, but he know has a solid offense behind him. Last year with the M's he was 3-12, but with a very nice 3.33 ERA as they gave him just 2.3 rpg, while with Detroit he was 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and they gave him 4.9 RPG in his 10 starts for them. In 1 starts this year he lasted just 3.2 innings (injury) but gave up 0 runs, while the Tigers put up 10 runs in that start. This is a very good pitcher that will prosper with a better offense behind him and he should have little problems shutting down a Seattle offense that hits just .205 and scores just 3.6 rpg in their own park. Blake Beavan has not been good for Seattle this year, with a 1-3 mark and a 4.45 ERA overall, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Neither pitcher has faced their opponent, but the tigers do have the better starter and offense and should take game one here.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Detroit/ Seattle Under 7: Despite a 9-16 mark in this park, Doug Fister has a 3.42 ERA in 34 starts here. Meaning a lot of low scoring games here for him. Detroit Hit's just .230 on the road, while Seattle hits just .205 at home. Here's the clincher. Since 2009 the Mariners have gone 22-0 UNDER when they are off a game that went UNDER the total by 1 run or less. I see 6 runs here, meaning we could have same play tomorrow. LOL

St Louis/ Arizona Under 8.5: (Added) Wanted to make this one of my top plays, but the money coming in on the over, plus the fact that this looks way too easy, has me putting it a one of my lesser plays. Both pitchers have been stellar, as Lynn has an ERA of 1.60 to start the year, while Suanders is at 1.24. Both starters also have WHIPs of under 1. This has the makings of a 3-2 pitchers duel Cards win though. LOL

1 UNIT PLAYS

Chicago/ Cleveland Over 8.5 (Game 1): Despite throwing a perfect game, Philip Humber still has a 4.62 ERA overall, including a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts, while his games have averaged 10 rpg on the year. Humber has 1 start here (last year) and he allowed 7 ER in just 6 innings. Cleveland bats are waking up, while the ChiSox should be able to tag Zach Mcallister (6.11 ERA in 4 career starts, all last year) for a few. Game 1 should provide plenty of runs.

Colorado/ San Diego Over 6.5: (Added) Had to take a shot with this one. I know it's at Petco but it's not often you will get a Rockies game with this low an OU line. I expect both offenses to have a good showing in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

50 DIME NBA
ODDSMAKER ERROR

San Antonio Spurs -pts

[Mr. IWS]

Beat The Odds / Vegas Davis
5-3 Run Last 2 Days

3* Texas Rangers ML-140

4* Arizona Diamondbacks Run Line +1.5

5* San Antonio Spurs at Utah Jazz OVER 199

[Mr. IWS]

401 K SPORTS
Sunday recap 3-0 + 3.35 units
1* Baltimore +135 (win) - Amazingly people bet this up to Baltimore +150 by game time
1* Hou/Stl Over-8 (win)
1* Miami -120 (win)

Nice way to end the week. I am going to make today simple there are 3 games where the travel & bullpen situations are putting teams in a tough spot.

1* Texas -130 over Baltimore (7pm) - Baltimore pen is decimated by the weekend of games. Matusz has been struggling this year and has yet to go more than 6IP TY. He will need to goo deeper than that to give the pen a rest. Showalter may tell the kid to take one for the team today even if he struggles.

1* Kansas City +110 over Boston (8pm) Late game out of Boston to have to fly to KC. Boston pen is also decimated from weekend. Sox will have to send down Mortensen just to bring up a fresh arm for tonight. Dubront is another pitcher who has yet to go deep into a game. Just like Matusz, he may have to take one for the team. Sanchez has been good when not facing Cleveland

1* Cincinnati +125 over Milwaukee (8pm) - Milwaukee traveling in from SF after an extra inn game made them take a late night flight out of the bay area. Gallardo has struggled with Cincy in the past. There are a lot of hitters with either good averages or a couple of HR's off Yovanni. The Brewer pen was used heavy over the weekend. Bronson has been solid vs the brewers in the past. There are some ugly batter/pitcher match ups in this one for the Brewers off Arroyo. Cincy pen lines up well. They traveled a lot less from Pitt on sun.

Let's make it 6 for 6 with sweep tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers
300,000* Grizzlies

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Los Angeles Clippers

The Memphis Grizzlies (42-27, 30-38-1 ATS) were the favorites coming into
this series vs. the Los Angeles Clippers (42-27, 34-34-1 ATS), but they find
themselves in a 2-1 hole after failing to hold another late lead in Game 3.
Granted, it was not as monumental as blowing a 27-poiont lead in Game 1, but
Memphis blew a seven-point fourth quarter lead and permitted a 13-1 run
this time around to turn a six-point lead with 4:00 left into a six-point
deficit before ultimately falling 87-86. The Grizzlies will try to even up the
series while again playing in enemy territory in Game 4 on Monday night at the
Staples Center in Los Angeles, CA at 10:30 ET on TNT.

In fact, the Grizzlies have had trouble closing out every game of this
series as they showed their immaturity even while winning Game 2 by seven
points, jacking up three pointers early in the shot clock when they should have
been trying to protect a lead in the final minutes. Then again, it is harder
to protect a lead when you allow an opponent to shoot 51.2 percent from the
field like the Clippers have over the first three games of this series, which
is rather disconcerting considering that Memphis finished fifth in scoring
defense during the regular season while permitting just 44.4 percent
shooting. To their credit, the Grizzlies did stage a furious comeback after giving
up the lead in Game 3 when Rudy Gay hit two-three pointers in five seconds
to account for the final score, but they would not have been in that position
to begin with if they could have made some stops when they had the lead,
and they also lost despite making 30 foul shots compared to just 13 made free
throws by the Clippers.

Then again, maybe Los Angeles does not need to make many free throws when
you consider that the Clippers' 51.2 percent shooting from the field ties
them with the most impressive team in these playoffs, the San Antonio Spurs,
for the highest field goal percentage in the post-season. The Clips have also
held Memphis to 44.4 percent shooting in this series as they have continued
the improved defense they displayed during their 14-5 straight up run to end
the regular season. So why are the Clippers being forced to regularly come
from behind when they have shot the ball so much better than the Grizzlies?
Well, that would be because Memphis has outscored Los Angeles 72-43 from the
foul line in the three games combined, including 30-13 in Game 3 as
mentioned and 31-13 in Game 2. If there was not such an imbalance at the line in
Game 2, then the Clippers would probably be holding a 3-0 stranglehold on this
series right now.

Game 3 produced the first 'under' of this series despite all those foul
shots, but it also improved the 'under' to 5-1 in the last six meetings here at
Staples Center including 3-0 this season, and the 'under' is still 7-3 in
the last 10 meetings despite the two games in Memphis in this series going
'over'.

Pick: OVER 182.5

[Mr. IWS]

Bob Balfe

Boston Red Sox ML-117