5-17-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Mets -110

100* Clippers / Spurs Over 194

50* Heat -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals - OVER 9 RUNS (+101) ***2:10 PM EST START**

Listed Pitchers: Matusz vs Hochevar
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.02 units)

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

100* Detroit (-240) over Minnesota

50* Philadelphia (-185) over Chicago Cubs

50* Cleveland (-165) over Seattle

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Indiana/ Miami Under 181.5: Both of these teams have played excellent defense in the playoffs so far and I see more of the same tonight. I felt in game 2 the loss of Bosh would hurt this Miami team defensively, but they came out an played superb defense as they allowed the Pacers just 78 points in the game. Miami has now allowed just 82.5 ppg in their 7 post season games this year. Offensively the Heat also struggled without Bosh, as they were able to score just 75 points in the game and they have now scored just 85 ppg in the first 2 games vs Indiana. Tonight it may not get better for Miami as the Pacers have allowed just 92.4 ppg on 43.5% shooting at home this year, while in their last 4 at home they have allowed just 84.5 ppg. The Pacers have struggled to score vs Miami in the series, and I expect that to continue here as Miami knows that defense will be their key to getting home court advantage back. Look for a game in the low 170's here.

2 UNIT PLAY

Clippers/ San Antonio Over 194: Heading into the Memphis series I felt that the Clippers were more of an up and down the court team, but they didn't play that way in that one. Well in game 1 vs the Spurs they did play that way and they had to if they were hoping to keep pace with the high scoring Spurs. In their 15 game winning streak the Spurs have averaged 110.3 ppg and have hit at least 105 points in 13 of those 15 games. That means we need about 89 points for the Clippers to at least get a tie in this one. In a faster paced game they should get somewhere in the 90's in this game as they have enough offense to get at least that much. The Spurs have played great defense during their stretch, but they did allow 92 points in the opener and they have allowed 93.7 during their 15 game win streak, so 92 or 93 is not out of the question by the Clippers here. I expect this one to barely squeak above 200 points.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Series: Miami -291 over INDIANA

We recommended playing the Pacers at +688 to win the series and that bet allows us to free roll for a profit of close to four units for that to occur. You should only make this bet if you wagered on Indiana to win the series at +688. To break this down, should the Heat go on to win this series we would win one unit on them and lose one unit on our Indiana bet to win series for a complete wash. However, if the Pacers go on to win this series, we would lose -2.91 units on this series bet but win 6.88 units on our original bet for a net profit of 3.97 units. Indiana can win this series seeing that they could be up 2-0 and have not looked out of place. Still, you cannot count the Heat out, as they’re very capable of winning one or both games in Indiana. However, the series is simply too close to call and it would be foolish to not take advantage of this “free roll”. Play: Miami -291 to win series (Risking 1 unit).

L.A. Clippers +11 over SAN ANTONIO

The Spurs have won 16 in a row. They have yet to lose in the post-season and in five playoff games they’ve barely broken a sweat. San Antonio beat the Jazz by 25 and 31 points respectively in the first two games played in San Antonio, in round one. They opened the second round by clobbering the Clippers by 16. This team is winning easy and what that has done is created an inflated number on them. After an exhausting series against the Grizzlies, the Clippers could be excused for that 16-point loss. Being an 11-point pooch in game two is not only an insult, it’s bulletin board material that the Clippers will use to get even more motivated. They have flaws, the Clippers do, but they also have Chris Paul and Blake Griffin. When two of the five players on the court are that good, you always have a fighting chance. Look for the Clip Joint to regroup and play a much better game this time around. The Spurs simply can’t keep blowing out opponents. Who could blame them for entering this game with some complacency? Asking the Clippers to hang around here is not a tall order. Nobody is talking about this series or the Clippers. They’re supposed to go down in four straight. They’re being completely disrespected and that’s something pros hate more than anything. A big response from this forgotten group is a must. Play: L.A. Clippers +11 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +150 over CLEVELAND

Zach McAllister was acquired from the Yankees in ’10 and started four games with Cleveland in ’11, posting a 6.11 ERA. He’s pitched 30 major league innings in his brief career and has surrendered 40 hits and 24 earned runs for a BAA of .315 and an ERA of 5.28. He doesn’t walk many and in two games this season he’s struck out 13 in 13 frames but his BAA is still high at .280. The latter stat makes him too big of a risk to be spotting 1.62 with. With this being a day game after a night game, a couple of Indian starters could also be given a day off. Of course that holds true for the Mariners as well but the difference is they’re not heavily favored side. Hector Noesi comes in with some rather ugly numbers that include an ERA of 6.32. However, he’s been much better in three starts in May that has seen Noesi post a 0.97 WHIP and a 4.12 ERA. His strand rate of 55% is one of the lowest in the majors among qualified starters and that’s a number that suggests he’s had a lot of misfortune. His BAA is just .248 and his xERA in his last three starts was 3.27. Noesi is better than his surface stats indicate and he certainly qualifies as a buy low candidate. Play: Seattle +150 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. METS +109 over Cincinnati

Basketball players look forward to playing at places like Madison Square Gardens or the Staples Center. NFL players look forward to playing on Monday Night Football and baseball players want to play at Yankee Stadium. The Reds get their chance to play at Yankee Stadium tomorrow night for the first time since ’08 and it figures to be on their minds. They also have a tough task here, having to face knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Dickey’s consistent track record in two years since being inserted into the rotation cannot be ignored. He throws strikes, he keeps hitters off balance, he has a strong groundball profile and he wins games. The Reds unloaded four prospects to acquire Mat Latos and with that comes some added pressure to perform. Latos was expected to be the staff anchor and so far he has not delivered. His 39% groundball rate, his 5.40 ERA on the road and his early season injury suggests he might be pitching through some health issues. His two wins have come against the Giants in San Fran and the Pirates. Latos has been hit hard by just about every other team he’s faced and the Mets are swinging well these past 10 days. Cincinnati is batting just .230 against right-handers. All signs point to the host here. Play: N.Y. Mets +109 (Risking 2 units).

Minnesota +218 over DETROIT

Weren’t the Tigers supposed to run away with the AL Central this season en route to a sure playoff spot? It’s early but the Tigers are a game under .500 after losing to Nick Blackburn and the Twins last night. The bullpen has been a disaster, the Tigers have allowed 26 runs in their past three games and they’ve now lost four of six. This is a team that is currently in peril. Doug Fister's numbers have been strong in his first two starts after a stint on the disabled list but bear in mind that those assignments were against a pair of weak AL West rosters in pitcher-friendly parks (at Seattle and at Oakland). His 0.54 ERA is unsustainable. Suddenly, since recalling some players from the minors, the Twinkies are playing much better. Minnesota is 3-3 over its last six. They took two of three from the Blue Jays last weekend and won the opener here last night. P. J. Walters didn’t walk a batter in his season debut against the aforementioned Blue Jays and was the hard luck loser in a 2-1 final. At the age of 27, Walters has compiled solid minor league numbers and could finally be ready to take that next step. The Twins are playing with house money this season. They were expected to lose a lot games while the Tigers are playing under some early season pressure to wake up. Imagine getting swept by the Twins in a brief two game series. Current form suggests it could happen. Play: Minnesota +218 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAY

3 UNIT PLAY

Cleveland/ Seattle Over 8.5: Hector Noesi is a bad pitcher and should struggle today, especially vs all the lefties he may face. Left-handed batters are hitting .279 vs him this year and they have a .903 OPS vs him as well. Hector has an 8.27 ERA on the road this year, with his road starts averaging 9.3 rpg. The Cleveland offense has struggled at home this year but they do come in having scored 19 runs in their last 3 games and they just tagged Felix Hernandez for 8 runs (6 ER) in just 3,.2 innings of work. Zach McAllister has had 2 starts on the year and has been pretty decent, but he does have a 4.15 ERA so he can give up some some runs, plus behind him their is a Tribe pen with a 4.84 ERA at home on the year. This struggling Seattle offense should wake up for a few runs in this one. Cleveland will score a bunch in this one and while I would love to take them on the RL i just can't because I expect their pen to come in and give the M's a few late runs, which may make it a 1 run game. both teams will score plenty in this one.

OTHER PLAY

2 UNIT PLAY

DETROIT -1.5 (-115) over Minnesota: Last night the Twins won 11-7 to take game 1 of this short series, but today behind Doug Fister and his 0.54 ERA they should exact some revenge. Look detroit to win rather easily.

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Los Angeles Clippers vs. San Antonio Spurs

The San Antonio Spurs (55-16. 46-21-4 ATS) are playing the best ball in the
NBA, and although they took advantage of the tired Los Angeles Clippers
(44-30, 36-36-2 ATS) in Game 1, the result may not have been different if the
Clips had equal rest. The Spurs have now won 15 consecutive games after that
easy 108-92 triumph Tuesday as 11-point favorites, and to give you an idea
of how dominant they have been, San Antonio is 13-1-1 against the spread
during this winning streak! That is what the Clippers will attempt to overcome
in Game 2 on Thursday night from the AT&T Center in San Antonio, TX at 9:30
ET on ESPN.

If you want to talk about more dominance, consider that the Spurs are 26-2
straight up and 22-4-2 against the spread in their last 28 games, and one of
those two losses came in a game where they rested their entire Big Three of
Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker in a game at Utah and still lost
by only seven points. The Spurs dominated Game 1 from the second quarter
onward, as they ended up shooting a nice 48.8 percent from the field including
a blistering 52.0 percent on 13-for-25 from beyond the three-point arc! Yes,
the Spurs had had a full week off while the Clippers had just won Game 7 of
their opening round series on the road in Memphis on Sunday, but San
Antonio finished second in the NBA in scoring during the regular season at 103.7
points per game as well as leading the league in both field goal percentage
(47.8 percent) and three-point shooting (39.3 percent), so that great
shooting on Tuesday really was not much of an anomaly. The knock on the Spurs
during the year was that they were a bit lax on the defensive end, but they have
stepped up that part of their game in the playoffs while holding opponents
to 87.4 points per game on 39.4 percent shooting.

The Clippers actually shot 44.6 percent in Game 1 but it made no
difference. They were able to hang in through a high scoring first quarter that ended
in a 29-29 tie, but the Spurs began pulling away in the second quarter and
they were never really threatened. There were injury concerns regarding both
Chris Paul and Blake Griffin entering this series, and Paul was abysmal
Tuesday while shooting 3-for-13 from the field and finishing with six points,
although he did add 10 assists. The Spurs swarmed Paul practically every time
he touched the ball, so he really can't use the injury as an excuse as San
Antonio defended him brilliantly. Griffin had a decent game with 15 points
and nine rebounds, but that only tied him with Caron Butler, playing with a
fractured hand, as the high scorer among the Los Angeles scorers. Both of
those players were outdone however by Eric Bledsoe coming off the bench, as he
poured in 23 points. The Clippers were able to beat the Grizzlies because of
their superior bench, but they have no such edge here as the Spurs are one
of the deepest teams in the NBA.

Yes, the Clippers were one of only five teams to win in San Antonio during
the regular season, but that game deserves an asterisk as Tony Parker did
not play at all and Duncan and Ginobili were limited to about 25 minutes (or
half a game) each. Even if we include that result, the Spurs are still now
12-3 ATS in the last 15 head-to-head meetings. Also, the high scoring affair
in Game 1 makes the 'over' 13-3-2 in the last 18 meetings here in Texas.

Pick: OVER 194

[Mr. IWS]

The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

THURSDAY

100* Play Indiana (+1) over Miami (TOP NBA PLAY)
7:00 PM EST

Miami has lost 8 of the last 11 games against the spread after allowing 80 points or less in their last game and they have lost 17 of the last 24 games against the spread coming off three games as a home favorite. Miami has lost 10 of the last 15 games against the spread coming off a combined score of 175 points or less in their last game and they have lost 23 of the last 32 games vs. Indiana on the road.

50* Play San Antonio (-11) over Los Angeles Clippers (Bonus)

[Mr. IWS]

MLBPredictions / Kevin

Baltimore Orioles @ Kansas City Royals - OVER 9 RUNS (+101) ***2:10 PM EST START**

Listed Pitchers: Matusz vs Hochevar
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.02 units)

[Mr. IWS]

Rockdemansports

BEST PITCHER SYSTEM -994.............TEXAS RL +110

SHUTOUT SYSTEM -595 ........... NO PLAY

TOTAL SYSTEM +220 ................. BRAVES - UNDER

DIAMOND DOG SYSTEM -610 ............... METS +115

HOT TREND SYSTEM -450 .................. BRAVES -150

[Mr. IWS]

owad

Early MLB play*
5* INDIANS -1.5

[Mr. IWS]

tom stryker nba - miami heat

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 5/17
918 Indians -150 @ 12:05p
902 Mets +105 @ 1:10p
921 A's +158 @ 2:05p
923 Orioles +109 @ 2:10p
925 White Sox +140 @ 3:35p
906 Giants -128 @ 3:45p
907 Pirates +133 @ 7:05p
928 Jays +105 @ 7:05p
930 Rays -118 @ 7:10p
912 Astros +125 @ 8:05p
915 Dodgers +107 @ 10:05p