Tweet
Viking Sports NHL 5.19
NYR/NJ 4.5 u
NYR/NJ 4.5 u
-
Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAYS
Toronto/ NY Mets over 8.5: Gonna ride this hot OVER streak that Met road games have produced this year. Met road games have averaged 11.8 rpg with 15 of their 18 away from home going OVER the total. The Met's hit much better on the road at .280 and they score 5.3 rpg away from home, compared to just 3.3 rpg at home, while their Pitching has been atrocious away from home, posting a 6.02 ERA while allowing 6.47 rpg away from home on the year. The Jays hit pretty good at home (.255) while they averaged a healthy 5.6 rpg in their own park this year and should they get Batista out of the game fairly early then they get to take their shots at a Met pen that has an ERA of 7.24 on the road this year. Brandon Morrow has pitched very well of late with an 0.90 ERA in his last 3 starts, but he does have a 4.12 ERA at home this year, with his home starts averaging 10.3 rpg. Last night the Mets scored a few runs late and the hope here is that they can get into the Jays pen as Toronto has a pen ERA of 5.68 at home this year. This game may not produce the 19 runs that last night's game did, but with two solid offenses on the field I do expect at least 10 runs in this one.
Milwaukee/ Minnesota Over 8.5: (Added) Justin Morneau is back for the Twins and their offense has taken off as they have scored 26 runs in their last 3 games. Today they face Yovani Gallardo, who has a 5.04 ERA overall and a 4.18 ERA at home. Yovani's home games this year have averaged 10.3 rpg. Helping this play is the fact that we have Carl Pavano pitching for the Twins, who comes in with a 5.14 ERA on the year. Carl does have a 3.81 ERA on the road, be he also has a 4.72 ERA in his career obn the road, 5.51 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Brewers and a 5.53 ERA in 4 career starts here. The Brewers have struggled to score some of late, but they do average a solid 4.7 rpg at home and should be able to get to Carl for a good amount of runs in this one. A revitalized Twins offense, a brewers team that hits well at home and two average pitchers on the mound should add up to at least 10 runs being scored in this one.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
Detroit/ Pittsburgh Under 8: (Added) AJ Burnett has had 1 bad start and in that game the pirate Pen was very thin so he was left out there to absorb all 12 runs that the Cards put up, but let's take note that he hasn't allowed more than 2 ERA in any of his other 4 starts. Im still expecting AJ to revert bad to bad for this year and that's why this is not a top play. Still I see both teams struggling to score here.
1 UNIT PLAY
CLEVELAND +101 over Miami: (Added) Since 2004, the Marlins are 0-12 as a road favorite off a win in which they had less than 5 team men left on base.Comment
-
LEGIT PICKS
Saturday 5/19/12 Plays...
5* METS/BLUEJAYS (OVER)
4* BRAVES/RAYS (UNDER)
---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--Comment
-
DOC SPORTS
3-unit Play Take #907 Oakland A's (+125) over San Francisco Giants (4:05pm ET)
The Oakland A's meet up with the San Francisco Giants in the second game of the interleague series between these natural rivals. The A's have quietly put together a very nice season at 20-20 on the year when everyone had predicted them to be in the cellar of the American League West this season. They've done it with great pitching, some timely hitting and solid fundamental baseball. It doesn't seem like the Bookmakers are buying in quite yet based on the lines you see each day, but this team has showed some good value early on. Today they give the ball to 25-year old Tyson Ross. The young right-hander had a rough time in his first few starts of the season after being given a chance in the rotation, but the A's stood behind him and he's turned it around in his last two starts. Ross is a hurler that pitches to contact and excels at getting lots of groundballs. He faces a San Francisco team today that has really been struggling at the dish, and a lot of that has to do with Pablo Sandoval being injured.
The Giants counter with Ryan Vogelsong as their starter in this one. While he's put up a nice 2.66 ERA this season, Vogelsong has been experiencing some big control problems and his walks have gone up over his last several starts. He's also lost some zip on his fastball and doesn't look quite as sharp as he did last season. Now's the time to take advantage of this before his ERA starts to balloon and the value is gone. The Giants are also only 3-7 in Vogelsong's last 10 starts as a favorite, and I think they will struggle again in the favorite role today. Take the A's in today's matchup.
3-unit Play Take #911 Miami Marlins (-110) over Cleveland Indians (4:05pm ET) The Miami Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball after getting off to a slow start on the 2012 campaign. They've won 13 of their last 17 games and are finally playing like the team that everyone thought they could be when they made all of their blockbuster acquisitions in the offseason. It's been a great team effort as their hitting is finally coming around, the starting pitching has been great and even the bullpen situation has finally been worked out. Today's starter for the Marlins Anibal Sanchez is pitching about as well as anyone in the major leagues right now. In his seven starts, Sanchez has a 2.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and has struck out 51 batters while only walking 12. He's been consistently dominate as he hasn't given up more than three runs in any start and has pitched at least six innings in every start.
The Cleveland Indians come into this game at 22-17, but they've been extremely fortunate in getting there. They have a -4 run differential on the year and have been good in close games. They started out very similarly last season and came crashing back down to earth in a hurry. It probably won't be as drastic as a fall this season, but you can certainly expect some regression. I don't like today's starter Jeanmar Gomez too much as he's been inconsistent and is still trying to find his way in the major leagues. He's going to need to be close to perfect today against a red hot Marlins team since Sanchez is on the mound, and I don't think he'll be able to handle it. Take the streaking Marlins today at a very favorable price.
NBA
8-Unit NBA Playoffs Game of the Year
#525 Take San Antonio -5 over LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST, Saturday)
We actually thought this line would come in a bit higher. We actually think there is amazing value on the Spurs up to 8.5. This is just a real mismatch and we are expecting a sweep in this series. The Spurs are playing by far the best basketball in the NBA right now and they are our clear favorite to win it all, especially with the Heat struggling out east. This team is playing the best basketball in crunch time that we have seen in a couple years. The Spurs seem unstoppable right now and the thing we really love about this game is that they seem to be playing every game like it is Game 7 of the NBA Finals. Gregg Popovich has the team playing nearly flawless basketball and they have been covering so many lines because they just don't let up. They may be up by double digits but they will still be bombing threes and playing like they are down by a few points at the end of the game. This team obviously learned some hard lessons from last season's early exit from the playoffs by the hands of the Grizzlies. This team has now won 16 straight. They failed to cover in only two of those games despite facing some massive lines down the stretch of the season and in the playoffs. Their two non-covers were in Utah where they missed the cover by 1.5 points and a road push the last game of the regular season against Golden State when the starters rested. The bookies just can't set a line right now that the Spurs can't beat. The Clippers are just a shell of the team that we saw during the stretch run of the regular season. While they did play well against Memphis they were pretty lucky to win that series. We feel they ?left everything on the court? during that series and also that the team's goal was just to make the second round this year although no one on the team would admit that publicly. This is a team that needs a couple more pieces to be a real championship contender and we do think they will be much better next season. However, right now they are totally outmatched in this series. And just about every player on the team is nursing some sort of injury. Chris Paul has not looked like himself at all in this series and he hasn't had time to heal because of this hectic playoff schedule. This injury would have probably kept him out a couple weeks during the regular season. Same with Blake Griffin, who doesn't have the explosiveness near the basket that we are used to. His knee gets worse as the game goes on and he is more ineffective down the stretch of games (which, coincidentally is when this spread will be won or lose, in the fourth quarter). Other key players have numerous injuries and ailments. Even Nick Young has a major toothache that he needs immediate work on but he can't get it taken care of because he would miss a game. The Spurs have dominated this series and are 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings. They are also 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in LA. The Clippers defense can't slow down the Spurs and their offense can't keep up and we expect this one to be another double-digit win by the Spurs. San Antonio knows the importance of closing out this series early since OKC in the next round will be a real test and that puts a real emphasis on dominating the weaker team here.Comment
-
ROBERT FERRINGO
1.5-Unit Play. Take #928 Kansas City (-105) over Arizona (7 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
The Royals let one get away last night but I think that they will come back strong today. I will have to admit that I have been wrong about Bruce Chen, who has been a bit more impressive than his numbers suggest. And at some point the Royals are going to start winning games at home after their pathetic 4-16 starts. Arizona is still not completely whole or completely healthy. And after six straight wins over the Royals I think that the road team is primed for a misstep. Ian Kennedy is still overvalued because of his ridiculous numbers last year. But he is not the same guy and his ERA is floating up toward 4.00. Arizona is just 1-5 in their last six games against a lefty starter and they are just 24-56 as an interleague underdog. I like the home squad tonight.
1-Unit Play. Take #906 Toronto (-1.5, -110) over N.Y. Mets (1 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
The Blue Jays are hot and they are at home. And when Jose Bautista is going the way that he is this team is tough to beat. He has hit five home runs in the last week and has started to find his groove. The Mets will be without David Wright today, who is getting a day off because he is sick. This is a bad time for their leader to be on the shelf. Miguel Batista has thrown a lot better than I thought he would. But the guy is still terrible and I think that the Jays are going to end his day early. Brandon Morrow, on the other hand, has been dominating in his last five starts, failing to give up more than one earned run in any of them. He actually gave up six runs in his last start (five unearned) and he is set up for a nice bounce back here. The Jays have momentum, a pitching mismatch, and a hot stick in the middle of the lineup. They won't match last night's 14-5 beat down but they should get another win here.
0.5-Unit Play. Take #907 Oakland (+120) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
At some point Oakland is going to win in San Francisco. That is now 10 straight losses there. I know you should never bet against a streak, but Oakland made a nice little comeback to make last night interesting when they could have just mailed it in. I think that will carry over into today. The public is all over the Giants in this game, but the line has actually plunged down from -155 to -125. That is a big red flag to me.
1-Unit Play. Take #929 L.A. Angels (-155) over San Diego (10 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
Let's see if the Angels can't keep their heads out of their asses for another day. They won easily last night and they have the same mismatch today. On the mound I think that Dan Haren is going to get it going. He hasn't looked as bad as his numbers suggest, and he has had a little extra rest to get himself correct for this start. The Angels lineup should be set up well today against mediocre lefty Eric Stults. Albert Pujols is starting to hit, and guys like Trumbo, Kendrick and Wells should get their cuts in today. San Diego is still shuffling their roster and their lineup and nothing is working right now. The Angels have the better starter, a little juice, and a much better lineup. They should get Game 2 of this series.
Today's Totals
3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.0 (+100) Texas at Houston (7 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.0 Seattle at Colorado (4 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.5 Arizona at Kansas City (7 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 8.0 Pittsburgh at Detroit (4 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 7.0 Oakland at San Francisco (4 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
0.5-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 7.5 Boston at Philadelphia (7 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
Comment
-
ALLEN EASTMAN
2.5-Unit Play. Take #919 Texas (-1.5, -110) over Houston (7 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
The Rangers took the first game easily. I think that they are going to make a statement by beating down the Astros this weekend. The Astros are the little brother in the state right now. Texas just has too much offensive firepower. Lucas Harrell is just 2-6 in his eight starts this year and he has a 4.40 ERA on the season. Derek Holland has been great in his last three outings and is 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA. The Rangers are 19-7 in Holland's last 26 starts and they are 75-30 as a favorite. Texas is 9-1 in their last 10 games in Houston and they are 21-8 in their last 29 meetings wit the Astros overall. This one should be one-sided.
2-Unit Play. Take #906 Toronto (-1.5, +110) over N.Y. Mets (1 p.m., Saturday, May 19)
The Blue Jays wiped the dome with the Mets last night. I think they are going to do it again today. The Mets are going with Miguel Batista. He has been pretty good in his three starts. But he has a 4.50 ERA on the season and is only a spot starter. The Blue Jays should jump all over him again. Brandon Morrow has just a 0.90 ERA in his last three starts and he is usually very good at home. The Blue Jays are 14-6 when Morrow starts at home against a team that is over .500 and they are 6-0 in his last six interleague starts. This one should be another blowout!Comment
-
VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER
5-Unit Play. #926 Take Chicago Cubs -135 over Chicago White Sox (7:15 p.m., Saturday May 1)
Cubs yesterday lost a tough one losing 3-2 to the Sox but tonight I see Ryan Dempster finally getting a 'W'. Dempster has been damn good but of course the Cubs can't score when he is starting but he does keep them in games when on the mound. Dempster ERA is an outstanding 1.74 and if he can keep the Sox off the bases early we can see this weekend series even up. The White Sox are one of the best teams in Interleague but tonight they fall and tonight the Cubs win at home.Comment
-
INDIAN COWBOY
3-Unit Play. #928. Take Kansas City +105 over the Arizona Diamondbacks (Saturday @ 7:15pm est).
Kansas City should do well here as they come off a tough loss to Arizona the night before. As they bounce-back today, many of their hitters have had quality at bats against Ian Kennedy who is a good pitcher. For example, Billy Butler is batting .333, Mike Moustakas is batting .666, Alex Gordon is batting .500 and so on. And, if you notice from yesterday's games, although I am a National League fan and root for the NL, the American League is the better league in general. So to get even money on such games it is tough not to take the American League team here as they are bouncing back from a loss yesterday and combine the fact that Chen is likely the better pitcher. Chen comes off wins against Texas and Boston in back to back starts and has a 4.31 era in the American League which frankly to me is more impressive than a 3.81 era in the National League. Chen gave up 4 runs total to potent offenses in Boston and Texas in his last two starts and I like the the lefty veteran to continue to do well today against the Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games when Kennedy starts with the total that is set in place today and the Royals are 5-1 in their last 6 games when Chen is an underdog by this margin of +110 to +150 at home.Comment
-
JASON SHARPE
3 Unit Play Take #921 Baltimore +102 over Washington (7:15pm est):
Two of the top surprise teams in all of baseball go head to head here in game two of this series. Baltimore pulled out a tight 2-1 win last night in extra innings as their bullpen once again did the job for the O's.
Big reason here for the value lies with the fact that Jason Hammel missed a turn before his last start, he then came back and didn't quite look like the dominant pitcher he looked like before the missed outing. But hold on a minute, maybe his numbers weren't as great as they had been before in his previous starts because starter use to pitching every fifth day generally doesn't pitch as well when he misses a turn and it's been nine days between starts. Plus his first game back was also against the always hard hitting Yankees, a team that is usually a pitcher's worst nightmare. Hammel's velocity was excellent in that last game as his average fastball was as high as it had been all season long in any other game. What Hammel has done up until this point has really been unbelievable as he has had to face the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox in his last three outings and before that there were also two more starts against the long ball hitting Blue Jays also on his 2012 resume. Despite being faced with these powerful lineups, Hammel still has a ERA of 2.86 on the season with almost a 3 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio also. His last game needs to be looked at more as a tightener going forward than anything else and if that's the case than expect a fine pitched game here today by him.
On the Nationals side of things they go with lefty Ross Detwiler here in this one. This won't be easy for the southpaw as Baltimore bats usually smack left-hand pitching around. The O's come in with a offense ranked in the top five in baseball versus lefties so far this season. Detwiler isn't use to pitching against top hitting teams either as he has took full advantage of having faced off the likes of the Padres, Pirates and Diamondbacks (a team that hits much worse against lefties than they do right-handers) in his last three starts on the hill. The youngster was pitching well but has an ERA of 5.73 in his last two starts overall in games against light hitting San Diego and Pittsburgh.
Baltimore has flew out of the gates this season with one of the best records in baseball and they built this up not by beating up on patsies either but instead having played one of the toughest schedules in all of baseball to start the year. Going up against Washington is actually a lot easier task than what they have been use too of late as they came into this series having gone 11-6 their last 17 games against the likes of Kansas City, Ny Yankees, Tampa Bay, Texas, Boston and the Yankees again. It doesn't get much tougher than that for any team. Getting them as an underdog spot against a National League team is great value here. Take Baltimore in this one.
3 Unit Play Take #928 Kansas City -103 over Arizona (7:15pm est):
A very frustrated Kansas City Royals team takes the field here in this one as they felt like they let one slip through their fingers last night against Arizona.
The Diamondbacks haven't hit lefties as well as they have right-handers so far this season. They are just 1-5 their last six games against a starting left-hander coming into tonight's contest. They will have their hands full tonight as they go up against Bruce Chen, a lefty pitching as well as he has pitched in years. Chen is not known for great control but that hasn't been the case this season as he comes into this contest with almost an unheard of 4-1 strikeout to walk ratio this season. The big thing though is it's not like Chen is doing this against bad offenses either but instead his last three outings have come up against the likes of Texas, Boston and the Yankees and Chen came out of those three games with 16 strikeouts and just 3 walks. If not for some long balls hit by three of the most powerful home run hitting teams in baseball, Chen's ERA during this stretch would have been much better than a very respectable 4.05 during this time.
Arizona goes with youngster Ian Kennedy in this one. The right-hander will have his hands full against a Royals offense who hits well versus RHP. The Royals have went 7-3 in their last ten games against a right-hand starter and have a team batting average a solid 15 point higher versus righties than they do against a left-hander in 2012. Kennedy hasn't looked as good this year so far as he looked most of last season as he comes in sporting an ERA of 3.78 in his last five outings overall. This is the third straight road series for the Diamondbacks and oddly enough they are just 2-10 in game two's in their past 12 series that they have played in.
You would have made a killing backing American League home underdogs in inter-league action these past few years and getting one here or close to it is just pure value. Take Kansas City in this one.Comment
Comment