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50 balt arrieta
50 giants zito
50 seattle millwood
50 balt arrieta
50 giants zito
50 seattle millwood
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4.5-STAR La Dodgers and Arizona Under
Totals in Arizona have been inflated all year and this is yet another case. In the NL, there is absolutely no reason for a total of nine with this pitching matchup. Look for an easy under here.
LA is going for the sweep here in a three game series over Arizona. They have now won six straight games. The Diamondbacks are 0-11 OU since May 05, 2011 when playing a night game after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $1100 when playing the under. Also, the Diamondbacks are 2-11 OU since May 01, 2011 vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series after playing in a night game for a net profit of $875 when playing the under. They've scored six runs in all of those games, winning last night 8-7. The Dodgers are 6-19-3 OU since July 08, 2011 when playing a night game after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $1245 when playing the under. It was a devastating loss for Arizona, after leading by five runs after the sixth inning. The Diamondbacks are 0-14 OU (-3.1 rpg) since May 2011 in the last game of a series after a loss, which did not end a 5+ game winning streak, where they led. They used six pitchers to try to stop the bleeding late in that one. The Diamondbacks are 2-12 OU since May 05, 2011 within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they used 5+ pitchers in a night game for a net profit of $985 when playing the under. Joe Saunders goes for Arizona, after allowing three runs over six innings, throwing 105 pitches in a loss to KC last outing. The Diamondbacks are 0-7 OU since May 03, 2011 when Joe Saunders starts at home after throwing more than 100 pitches for a net profit of $700 when playing the under. v LA's Ted Lilly threw seven innings, allowing four runs, none of which were earned, in a win over St. Louis. The Dodgers are 3-11 OU since August 14, 2010 when Ted Lilly starts after a quality start at home for a net profit of $780 when playing the under.
SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: La Dodgers 3, ARIZONA 2Comment
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Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
St Louis/ San Diego Over 8: (Added) Boy, 2 days in a row that I have to agree with the Sharps. This play does make sense despite the fact that I have a stat below that says Under. The Cards have some players on the DL and that will certainly hurt their offense, but the middle of their lineup is still solid with Holliday and Beltran, plus the have Furcal at the top of the lineup. That's good news as those three are a combined 21-56 (.375), with 10 extra-basehits off of Suppan in their career. Now Jeff is also a huge dog in this one and that would suggest a St Louis win and he has a 7.14 ERA in his career when he losses the game (went off the grid a bit for that stat). As I said the Cards do have offensive injuries, but they still put up 4 runs in each of the first 2 games of the series, and that was vs better pitching than they will face tonight, plus let's also not that the Cards do score 6.05 rpg at home on the year. THe Padres do score better on the road at 3.44 rpg and they will be facing Lance Lynn, who has allowed 7 ER's in his last 2 starts. Cardinal home games have averaged 10.4 rpg, with the OVER going 15-5 in those games, while Lance's home starts have averaged 10.7 rpg. This one should hit DD with ease.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Baltimore/ Boston Over 9: I know Scotti will love this one right off the bat. Last night I had an easy winner on the Under in this game, but we will go the other way today. This is a day game in a hitters park and with the temps looking to be around 78 the ball should really carry in this one. We also have two pitchers on the mound who have been struggling. Daniel Bard comes in with a 5.50 ERA in his last 3 starts, with those games averaging 11 rpg, while on the road he carries a 6.20 ERA with him, with those games averaging 10.8 rpg. In his last 2 road starts, Bard has allowed 5 ER's in each and has given up 9 walks to just 4 K's in the two starts. Lot of baserunners to put on, especially when facing an O's team that is tops in HR's. Jake Arietta has really been struggling as he comes in with a 7.41 ERA in his last 3 starts, while at home this year he has a 6.41 ERA, with his home starts averaging 10.6 rpg. Jake has also faced Boston 3 times in his career and has a 5.51 ERA in those 3 starts. Boston was held in check by Lefty Matusz last night, but they do hit better vs righties on the road (.266) than lefties (.245) and they also score 5.05 rp/9 off of righties on the road. Baltimore puts up 4.5 rpg at home, but should be able to get a little more than that vs Bard. This one should be fun, with about 12 runs put up.
LA Angels/ Oakland Under 6.5: On the surface it would look like these starters are struggling right now as Weaver has a 6.06 ERA in his last 3 starts, while Parker has a 6.14 ERA in his last 3 starts, but a closer look will paint a different picture for us. Jered Weaver has just 1 bad start on the year and it was at Texas (no shame there) on ESPN in a game in which he allowed 8 ER in just 3.1 innings of work, but in his other 6 starts this year he has allowed 3 runs just once and 2 runs or less in 5 of those starts. In those starts he pitched 6.2 shutout innings vs Oakland in his first start of the year and that now gives him a 1.50 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the A's and a 2.71 ERA in 21 starts vs them overall. Plus we note that Jered has a 2.69 ERA in 48 career day starts. Jarod Parker also has 1 bad start this year and it was in his last game, on the road vs the Giants, in a game in which he allowed 6 ER in just 2 innings. Now in his other 4 starts this year he allowed 2 ER's or less in each game and he has a 2.37 ERA at home this year. The Halos struggle to score this year and having never faced Parker should mean advantage to the pitcher. Oakland also struggles to score, especially at home where they have averaged just 3.3 rpg, plus current Okland players have hit just .229 with 4 HR's and a mere 13 RBI's in 188 AB's vs Weaver. This one has pitchers duel written all over it, especially when we add in the fact that when Oakland faces a righty this year the UNDER is 22-7-1.
NY Yanks/ Kansas City Under 9: (Added) Will Smith has left Hollywood to pitch for the KC Royals. Ok maybe not, but this will be his first ever start in the majors and this gives him a major advantage over Yankee hitters in this one. Speaking of Yankee hitters, i feel that age may finally be catching up with them as they have averaged just 4.2 rpg in their own park this year, after putting up 5.8 rpg here last year. The Yanks come in hitting just .248 (.200 vs lefties) and they have scored just 2.8 rpg in their last 5 games (all at home), plus thyey have averaged just 3 rpg in Pettites 2 starts this year (both at home). Clearly this is a struggling offense. Pettrite has looked good in his two starts since returning to the rotation as he has a 2.51 ERA in those two starts, while in his last start, vs the Reds, he allowed 0 ER with 9 K's and just 1 walk in 8 innings of work. He should have little trouble vs a KC team that scores just 3.5 runs per 9 innings off lefties on the road. Both teams should have problems getting going vs these two pitchers tonight.
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAY
Chicago/ Minnesota Under 8 (Added)
Detroit -108 over CLEVELAND (Added)
1 UNIT PLAY
TAMPA BAY -113 over Toronto
Comment
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ROBERT FERRINGO
May 22 Tue: (6-4) -$160
Season: (190-215-16 = 0.469) -$8,316.80...season low...lost 3 days in a row
Yet another loss on days with 10 + plays: (4-14) -$7,228.50
KC @ NYY OVER 9 (-115) [4:05pm PDT]
COL @ MIA OVER 8 (-105) [4:10pm PDT]
ATL (-110) @ CIN [4:10pm PDT]
LAD @ ARI UNDER 9.5 (-115) [6:40pm PDT]
NYM @ PIT OVER 7.5 (-110) [9:35am PDT]Comment
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LEGIT PICKS
Wednesday 5/23/12 Plays...
3* RANGERS/MARINERS (UNDER)
---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--Comment
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LEGIT PICKS
Wednesday 5/23/12 Plays...
5* PADRES/CARDINALS (OVER)
3* DODGERS/DBACKS (OVER)
---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--Comment
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