5-26-12

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Saturday

Tigers/Twins over 8.5

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Today's NBA Picks

Philadelphia at Boston

The Celtics look to build on their 9-4 ATS record in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Boston is the pick (-5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Celtics favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks

SATURDAY, MAY 26 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 549-550: Philadelphia at Boston (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 122.422; Boston 130.125 Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 7 1/2; 176 Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 5 1/2; 170 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-5 1/2); Over

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Today's MLB Picks

Toronto at Texas

The Blue Jays look to bounce back from yesterday's 14-3 blowout and take advantage of a Texas team that is 3-13 in its last 16 games following a win. Toronto is the pick (+160) according to Dunkel, which has the Blue Jays favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160). Here are all of today's picks.

SATURDAY, MAY 26 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: San Diego at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Richard) 14.877; NY Mets (Santana) 14.201 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: NY Mets (-170); 7 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+150); Over

Game 953-954: Washington at Atlanta (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Strasburg) 14.935; Atlanta (Minor) 15.974 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 6 Vegas Line: Washington (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+120); Under

Game 955-956: San Francisco at Miami (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 14.951; Miami (Buehrle) 14.219 Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Miami (-140); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+120); Over

Game 957-958: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Maholm) 13.320; Pittsburgh (Correia) 14.565 Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-125); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-125); Under

Game 959-960: Philadelphia at St. Louis (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Kendrick) 15.744; St. Louis (Garcia) 14.926 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-165); 9 Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+145); Over

Game 961-962: Colorado at Cincinnati (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Guthrie) 14.906; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.553 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Under

Game 963-964: Houston at LA Dodgers (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Norris) 14.591; LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.143 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1 1/2; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-140); Over

Game 965-966: Milwaukee at Arizona (10:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Greinke) 15.495; Arizona (Miley) 14.384 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-125); Under

Game 967-968: Detroit at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Scherzer) 14.050; Minnesota (Pavano) 14.956 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+110); Under

Game 969-970: Toronto at Texas (3:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Alvarez) 16.252; Texas (Lewis) 15.252 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1; 10 1/2 Vegas Line: Texas (-180); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+160); Over

Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 14.384; Oakland (Colon) 15.276 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 8 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-175); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+155); Over

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Baltimore (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Paulino) 15.254; Baltimore (Chen) 15.012 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-130); 8 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+110); Under

Game 975-976: Cleveland at Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lowe) 16.171; White Sox (Peavy) 15.414 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-145); 8 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+125); Over

Game 977-978: Tampa Bay at Boston (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.626; Boston (Beckett) 16.737 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Boston (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-130); Under

Game 979-980: LA Angels at Seattle (7:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Williams) 15.286; Seattle (Hernandez) 16.201 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Seattle (-150); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-150); Over

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Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia +5.5 over BOSTON: Gonna look to the Sixers in this one. Philly just seems to be ready to take that next step. Actually I'm not sure they will win the game outright, but they are playing with plenty of heart right now and should at least keep this one close. The Sixers were blown out in game 5 here, but this one is for all the marbles and you can expect a game more like the 1st two in this series, which was won by each team by just 1 point. Both teams play excellent defense, but I feel the Sixers have a bit more at that end of the floor. On Paper Boston may have a bit more offense, but they are beat up so that evens things out a bit. I just feel the Sixers defense will really be able to keep this one close.

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Sports Wagers MLB

Kansas City +111 over BALTIMORE Pinnacle
Wei-Yin Chen has just two losses on the year, which is the same number of losses as Clayton Kershaw. Somehow, the 26-year old keeps racking up wins but it cannot last for this very mediocre pitcher. Chen’s profile shows a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 35%/20%/45%. Combine that fly-ball bias profile with his average strikeout rate and it’s trouble waiting to happen at Camden Yards. Chen’s xERA is 4.55, which is more than a run higher than his actual ERA of 3.45. Meanwhile Felipe Paulino is one of baseball’s best kept secrets. All he’s done is struck out 29 batters in 25 frames while walking a mere seven batters. He’s already beaten the Yanks twice by holding them to zero runs in 12.2 innings. Paulino has made just four starts this season after beginning the year on the DL and in three of those four starts he’s held the opposition scoreless. We see improved ERA, xERA, strikeout rate and groundball rate for three straight years and it’s all coming together for him now. The kid is the real deal. Play: Kansas City +111 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -1½ +145 over Cleveland Pinnacle
Very quietly, the White Sox have won seven of eight and own the second best BA in the majors over the past 10 games. The South Side won the opener, 9-3 last night and have now scored 26 runs over their past three games and six runs or more in seven of their past 10. They have a chance to put up a bunch more against one of the major’s biggest imposters, Derek Lowe. Lowe has a 2.15 ERA after nine starts but that does not coincide with 18 walks and 15 K’s in 59 innings. Lowe has been the lucky recipient of batted balls being hit right at people and once his 87% strand rate normalizes, his ERA will skyrocket. Don’t get blinded by the low ERA or 6-2 record, as Lowe still has some glaring weaknesses that this hot-hitting host has a great chance to expose. Jake Peavy has 55 K’s and 11 walks in 64 frames. Since April 23, Peavy has posted a 2.23 ERA and has also had good success against Cleveland in the past. However, this one is all about fading Derek Lowe. Play: Chicago -1½ +145 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +122 over MIAMI Pinnacle
The Giants lost to a big inning last night when the Marlins put up five in the sixth frame. San Fran still scored six yesterday and 14 in the opener Thursday night so they’re clearly feeling very comfortable at the plate in this yard. Madison Bumgarner is a different pitcher this year, transforming from a fireball hurler to an extreme groundballer (53% GB%) this season. It really doesn’t get much sweeter than Bumgarner taking back a tag against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle brings very little to the table outside of a strong WHIP. He relies heavily on his defense to make plays because he doesn’t miss many bats. Buehrle has posted a 4.43 ERA over his last three starts and the Fish have won all three. They can’t keep bailing him out by scoring five runs every time he pitches and his string of luck is about to run out. Definite overlay. Play: San Francisco +122 (Risking 2 units).

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Jimmy Boyd ICE ICE COLD


***TOP PLAY*** 76ers/Celtics 5* 10-0 Game 7 *BEST BET*
Celtics -5.5

Boyd's 30-0 MLB Saturday *Afternoon Delight*
New York Mets

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EAGLE EYE SPORTS--DAVE MARSHALL
Your Pick: Cleveland Indians (+132)
Your Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +1.5 (-135)
Your Pick: KC / Balt. Under 8 (-105)

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David Banks

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

It was a truly ugly Game 6 between the Philadelphia 76ers (42-36, 40-37-1
ATS) and the Boston Celtics (46-32, 39-37-2 ATS), but in the end the
eight-seeds from Philadelphia prevailed 82-75 to force a winner-take-all Game 7.
Thus, the pattern of these teams alternating wins over the first six games
continued as the 76ers improved to 5-0 this post season when coming off of a
loss. At least the Celtics get to return home for Game 7, which takes place
Saturday night at TD Garden in Boston, MA at 8:00 ET and will be broadcast
nationally over the air on ABC.

The Sixers won Game 6 despite hitting on only one three-point attempt in
nine tries, shooting only 60.7 percent from the foul line (17-for-28) and
committing 12 turnovers, which should give you an idea of just how bad Boston
played. To their credit though, the Sixers did take control in the third
quarter after trailing 36-33 at halftime, committing only two of their turnovers
in that quarter. The highlight of the third stanza was a ferocious dunk by
Andre Iguodala on which he was fouled, giving the Sixers a five-point lead
after he made the free throw, which in itself was a rarity for Philadelphia on
Wednesday. The Sixers then kept the Celtics at arm's length the rest of the
way, a task made easier by Boston's sloppy play. Now keep in mind that Game
5 in Boston was the complete opposite of Game 6, as it was then the 76ers
that had the halftime lead on the road and it was the Celtics feeding off of
the home fans in the second half while exploding and pulling away. So, did
the Sixers merely prolong the inevitable by winning Game 6 or could they
become the first team to win two straight games in this series?

The Celtics have nowhere to go but up after playing their worst game of the
playoffs and one of their worst games all year at the most inopportune
time. Boston shot a miserable 33.3 percent from the field (26-for-78) including
3-for-14 from three-point land and committed 17 turnovers. Just about the
only reason the 76ers did not blow the doors off of Game 6 early was because
the Celtics hit on 20 of their 23 free throw attempts, including going a
perfect 17-for-17 over the first three quarters while making only 19 field goals
over that same span. Then, Kevin Garnett was the only Celtic hitting shots
in the fourth quarter, and many of those shots were outside jumpers as
Boston could get no easy looks near the basket. Garnett finished with 20 points
with most of those coming in the final 12:00, but Paul Pierce was the leading
scorer with 24 points, although he hit on only 5-of-11 from the field while
going 13-for-13 from the foul line. No other Boston player hit
double-digits, a far cry from Game 5 here in Beantown when Brandon Bass scored 27 and
Rajon Rondo had his customary double-double. Bass had only eight points on
Wednesday and Rondo had an off night with just nine points and six assists.

Game 6 was only the second 'under' of this series and the 'over' is still
6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meetings overall. One would think that the
Boston shooting would improve in this contest just like it do following the
Celtics' first two losses in this series, as they put up 107 points in Game
3 and 101 points in Game 5. The 76ers are 9-4 against the spread in the
last 13 meetings, but obviously none of those were a Game 7 in Boston
situation.

Pick: Under 170.5

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David Banks

Philadelphia 76ers +pts

170.5 - Philadelphia 76ers / Boston Celtics (analysis on post #33)

Atlanta Braves

Kansas City Royals

Cincinnati Reds

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 5/26
952 Mets -160 @ 1:10p
967 Tigers -130 @ 2:10p
953 Nationals -145 @ 4:05p
972 A's +155 @ 4:05p
973 Royals Even @ 4:05p
955 Giants +120 @ 4:10p
976 White Sox -145 @ 4:10p
958 Pirates -125 @ 7:15p
959 Phillies +145 @ 7:15p
962 Reds -145 @ 7:15p
977 Rays +115 @ 7:15p
980 Mariners -160 @ 7:15p
964 Dodgers -140 @ 10:10p
966 D-Backs +105 @ 10:10p

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers MLB

Kansas City +111 over BALTIMORE Pinnacle
Wei-Yin Chen has just two losses on the year, which is the same number of losses as Clayton Kershaw. Somehow, the 26-year old keeps racking up wins but it cannot last for this very mediocre pitcher. Chen’s profile shows a groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 35%/20%/45%. Combine that fly-ball bias profile with his average strikeout rate and it’s trouble waiting to happen at Camden Yards. Chen’s xERA is 4.55, which is more than a run higher than his actual ERA of 3.45. Meanwhile Felipe Paulino is one of baseball’s best kept secrets. All he’s done is struck out 29 batters in 25 frames while walking a mere seven batters. He’s already beaten the Yanks twice by holding them to zero runs in 12.2 innings. Paulino has made just four starts this season after beginning the year on the DL and in three of those four starts he’s held the opposition scoreless. We see improved ERA, xERA, strikeout rate and groundball rate for three straight years and it’s all coming together for him now. The kid is the real deal. Play: Kansas City +111 (Risking 2 units).

CHICAGO -1½ +145 over Cleveland Pinnacle
Very quietly, the White Sox have won seven of eight and own the second best BA in the majors over the past 10 games. The South Side won the opener, 9-3 last night and have now scored 26 runs over their past three games and six runs or more in seven of their past 10. They have a chance to put up a bunch more against one of the major’s biggest imposters, Derek Lowe. Lowe has a 2.15 ERA after nine starts but that does not coincide with 18 walks and 15 K’s in 59 innings. Lowe has been the lucky recipient of batted balls being hit right at people and once his 87% strand rate normalizes, his ERA will skyrocket. Don’t get blinded by the low ERA or 6-2 record, as Lowe still has some glaring weaknesses that this hot-hitting host has a great chance to expose. Jake Peavy has 55 K’s and 11 walks in 64 frames. Since April 23, Peavy has posted a 2.23 ERA and has also had good success against Cleveland in the past. However, this one is all about fading Derek Lowe. Play: Chicago -1½ +145 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +122 over MIAMI Pinnacle
The Giants lost to a big inning last night when the Marlins put up five in the sixth frame. San Fran still scored six yesterday and 14 in the opener Thursday night so they’re clearly feeling very comfortable at the plate in this yard. Madison Bumgarner is a different pitcher this year, transforming from a fireball hurler to an extreme groundballer (53% GB%) this season. It really doesn’t get much sweeter than Bumgarner taking back a tag against Mark Buehrle. Buehrle brings very little to the table outside of a strong WHIP. He relies heavily on his defense to make plays because he doesn’t miss many bats. Buehrle has posted a 4.43 ERA over his last three starts and the Fish have won all three. They can’t keep bailing him out by scoring five runs every time he pitches and his string of luck is about to run out. Definite overlay. Play: San Francisco +122 (Risking 2 units).

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Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Washington/ Atlanta Over 7.5: (Added) Interesting to note here that Stephen Strasburg has it in his contract that he is not to go over 160 innings pitched this year and so he has pitched past 6 innings just once this year. Stephen does has a 2.21 ERA overall, but a 3.60 ERA in his last 3 starts, while the Nats pen has a 3.47 ERA on the road this year, so this struggling Braves offense should be good for a few runs off their pitching today, especially if we add in the fact that Stephen also has a 4.35 ERA in 2 career starts vs the Braves. The Nats offense hasn't been great this year, but they have turned it on a bit of late, averaging 4.8 rpg in their last 6 games and they will be taking on Mike Minor, who has struggled mightily of late. Mike actually has struggled all year with a 6.96 ERA overall, but in his last 5 starts he has allowed 6 ER's or more in 4 of those starts. Mike's starts this year have averaged 11.2 rpg, while his home starts have put up 9 rpg, Mike has averaged just 5.9 innings pitched per outing and behind him is a pen that has a 4.83 ERA in this park. We should get a few extra runs from both pens in this one as this ga,e flirts with DD runs.

3 UNIT PLAY

Detroit/ Minnesota Over 9: Not sure what happened yesterday as I started to make a write up for the over in that game and then deleted it, but was still supposed to go back to it. That didn't happen and i left a winner off the table. Not today. Since the return of Justin Morneau the Twins have been involved in a bunch of high scoring games. 8 of the 9 games played since his return have put up at least 9 runs on the board. The Twins scoring has been up over that stretch as they have averaged 6.4 rpg in the 9 games, compared to less than 3.8 rpg before hand. Pitching has been a problem for this team all year as they ar last in ERA (5.49) and they come in having allowed a whopping 9 rpg in their last 5 games. Today the Twins send out Carl Pavano, who has a 6.65 ERA in 4 home starts this year, with his home starts averaging 10.3 rpg. Carl also has a 6.61 ERA in his last 5 starts vs Detroit, with 4 of te 5 starts hitting at least 9 runs. Max Scherzer pitched well in his last starts, but that was vs a weak hitting Pitt squad. Max comes in with a 5.73 ERA on the year, including a 5.33 ERA on the road, with his 5 road starts averaging 11.2 rpg. Max also has a 6.03 ERA in 6 day starts this year, with those starts averaging 11.7 rpg, plus he has a 6.45 ERA in 6 starts vs te Twins, with 4 of those 6 starts putting up 10 runs or more. Detroit had been struggling on offense and I expected that a trip to Minnesota would cure that and it did as they banged out 16 hits and put up 10 run. I expect their hitting to continue today, while Minnesota's hot hitting will also continue as this one reaches DD with ease.

OTHER PLAY

2 UNIT PLAY

Texas/ Toronto Under 9.5

Kansas City/ Baltimore Over 8.5 (Added)

1 UNIT PLAY

Washington -1.5 (+130) over ATLANTA (Added)

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS DAVIS
MLB
4 units on Baltimore Orioles -125
4 units on Pittsburgh Pirates -120
NBA
2 units on Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics over 170

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Indians +125

50* Nationals -140

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

300,000♦ Philadelphia 76ers