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The Brian Laverty
Red Sox/Rays Over 10 -115 (3 Units)
Baltimore -130 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh -120 (2 Units)
Red Sox/Rays Over 10 -115 (3 Units)
Baltimore -130 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh -120 (2 Units)
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John Ryan
Thunder at Spurs
Prediction: Over
10* graded play OVER the posted total in Game 1 of the Western Conference Final pitting Oklahoma City taking on San Antonio set to start at 8:35 PM ET. These were the two best teams in the regular season based on wins and it stand to reason they would meet here in the Conference Final.
The flash stats for these two teams are comparable, but as you will see, the Spurs rely on a power game scoring points from the paint and significant ball movement than the Thunder. The Spurs rank first in the NBA averaging 103.5 points per game, first outscoring their opponents by an average of 7.9 points per game, and fourth averaging 23.1 assist per game.
The Thunder run far more isolation sets in the half court offense. They rank third in the NBA averaging 102.7 points per game, fourth outscoring opponents by an average of 6.4 points per game, and 29th averaging 18.4 assist per game.
Breaking the stats down further we see the Spurs rank fourth averaging 45.6 points in the paint per game and 10th averaging 13.9 fast break points per game. The Thunder are more dependent on taking advantage of the team quickness and speed advantages over opponents. They rank 11th in the NBA averaging 41.5 points in the paint per game and fifth averaging 16.2 fast break points per game.
The Spurs are a superior ball control type of team as compared to the Thunder. The Spurs ranked second in the NBA posting a 1.712 assists-to-turnover ratio. By comparison, the Thunder ranked 30th in the NBA posting a 1.173 assist-to-turnover ratio. The dominant difference is the high speed Thunder fast break does carry more turnover risk. Their point guard Westbrook has been prone to trying to create too much on drives to the rim and either taking low percentage difficult shots or turning the ball over. However, in the playoffs, Westbrook has done a far greater job and the team as a whole has improved significantly in this category. They are a much better ball control team than the numbers would suggest.
Westbrook is averaging just 1.7 turnovers per game and posting a 2.86 assists-to-turnover ratio, and a remarkable 1.21 steals-to-turnover ratio ranking best among starting point guards in the NBA playoffs by a significant margin. Augmenting his fine play, is Derek Fisher, who has averaged 20.8 minutes per game, 0.4 turnovers per game, a 2.00 assists-to-turnover ratio, and 2.00 steals-to turnover ratio. There is no doubt in my mind the Thunder?s hand speed and quickness will help them win the turnover battle leading to many fast break scoring opportunities.
The simulator shows a high probability that the Thunder and Spurs will combine to score more than 205 points. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 62-30 ATS for 67.4% winners since 2006. Play OVER the posted total with all teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 and after a game where they failed to cover the spread and is an extremely well rested team playing three or less games in 10 days.
The sim shows a significant probability that the Spurs will score 105 or more points. In past games, the Thunder are 13-1 OVER the posted total making 11.9 units per one unit wagered when they allow 105 or more points in a game this season. The Thunder averaged 19.7 three point shot attempts per game this season. The Spurs are a solid 15-4 OVER (+10.6 Units) when facing teams who attempt 18 or more three point shots per game with the game taking place in the second half of this season.Comment
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Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
San Antonio/ Oklahoma City Over 204: I like the over in game 1 here. Both teams will just come out with a faced paced game plan an that should lead to a ton of points. San Antonio has averaged 106 ppg at home and they put up 105.7 ppg vs the Thunder this year. Oklahoma City has averaged 102.7 ppg on the year, including 100 ppg on the road. The Thunder will try to speed up the pace with a younger lineup featuring their three high-scoring players.Both teams have played good defense this year, but In game 1 I expect the offenses to shine as both teams hit the century mark with ease in this one.Comment
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SPORTS WAGERS
SAN ANTONIO -5½ over Oklahoma City
We really hate to give away 5½-points to one of the NBA’s best teams but this game one matchup warrants it for several reasons. The biggest one can be found by looking past the stars to the back-end rotation players. The Thunder will give major minutes to Derek Fisher, Daequan Cook, Kendrick Perkins and Thabo Sefolosha. While Perkins and Sefolosha have defensive value, Nick Collison was the only player outside OKC's top four to post halfway respectable offensive numbers. Contrast that with what San Antonio brings to the table with Tiago Splitter, Danny Green, Matt Bonner, Gary Neal, Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw. The Spurs bench is so good that DeJuan Blair can't even get on the court. Dig deeper and advantages start tilting more in the Spurs' favor, especially at the defensive end. The Thunder are athletic, play very hard and have a great shot-blocker behind them in Serge Ibaka. Nonetheless, they're not a great defensive team, ranking ninth in efficiency overall. Looking to the regular season, the Spurs won two of the three games even though Manu Ginobili missed all three. They won by pick-and-rolling the Thunder to death, leading to botched rotations and wide-open 3’s. In the three games, the Spurs shot a ridiculous 28-of-54 from long range. That was with Blair starting at power forward all three games and now that the Spurs play floor spacers Bonner and Diaw at the 4, they'll get the Thunder even more spread out on D. The Thunder still has some serious weapons at their disposal and can’t be counted out. However, in this battle of teacher vs. student, the students are about to get schooled. Play: San Antonio -5½ (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Washington +113 over ATLANTA
The Braves .207 BA over the last five games is the lowest mark in the NL. They’re also worse against lefties and will face a good one here in Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has won four starts in a row and already has six wins this season. Not only does he have a sparkling 1.98 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, but he has recorded 69 strikeouts in 54.2 innings and only one member of the Braves (Jack Wilson) has ever faced him. Nobody's talking about Gonzalez and he remains a little under the radar but he’s been one of the best pitchers this season with a BAA of .167. The Braves are a -120 favorite here because Brandon Beachy has been as close to unhittable as any pitcher in the game. Beachy has a 1.77 ERA and a BAA of .183. However, current Nats hitters have 16 knocks against him in 51 AB’s for a BA of .314. Also consider that the Nationals have taken the first two of this set to extend Atlanta’s losing streak to six games. A sizzling hot pitcher vs a cold team is always worth a look when being offered a price and that’s precisely the situation here. Play: Washington +113 (Risking 2 units).
CINCINNATI -1½ +126 over Colorado
Only two teams, the Twins and Cubs, have less wins than these Rockies. Colorado does not have a single pitcher they can rely on every fifth day to give them a better chance of winning than losing. Jamie Moyer looks like he could be a good one when he pitches in the old-timers game in about a year or two down the road and strikes out Willie Mays. The Rockies have lost all four of Moyer’s road starts this season and seven of his nine starts overall. This lefty has a 1.75 WHIP and is completely unable to pitch deep into games. Against the Reds, at Great American Ballpark, where HR’s are increased by a whopping 32% to righties, Moyer has almost no chance of success. At the age of 49, Moyer is a sideshow act. Meanwhile, the Reds have bolted into first place in the NL Central. They’ve won four of Mat Latos’s last six starts and one of the losses was by a score of 2-1. Latos is coming off a strong outing against the Braves in which he struck out eight and walked one. Latos has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts and should be working rather comfortably here with a big lead. Fade Jamie Moyer whenever possible, as there isn’t going to be many more opportunities to do so. Play: Cincinnati -1½ +126 (Risking 2 units).Comment
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Fantasy Sports Gametime
Baseball Sunday
100* Play Texas (-200) over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 3:10 PM EST
Yu Darvish has won 7 of the last 8 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has won 2 consecutive games as a favorite of -175 to -250. Yu Darvish is 1-0 vs. Toronto over his career with an ERA of 1.29 and he is 4-0 in home games this season with an ERA of 3.00.
50* Play Cincinnati (-170) over Colorado (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Los Angeles Angels (-140) over Seattle (MLB BONUS PLAY)Comment
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The Sports Capper
Hoops Plays
SUNDAY
100* Play San Antonio (-5.5) over Oklahoma City (TOP NBA PLAY)
8:30 PM EST
San Antonio has covered the spread in 21 of the last 32 games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and the have covered the spread in 28 of the last 40 home games when playing three or less games in ten days.Comment
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Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
Cleveland/ Chicago Over 9.5
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/San Francisco Over 7
LA Angels/ Seattle Over 6.5
Baltimore -134 over Kansas City
LA DODGERS -1.5 (+140) over Houston
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Colorado/ Cincinnati Over 9
Philadelphia/ St Louis Under 7.5
1 UNIT PLAY
PITTSBURGH -119 over ChicagoComment
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WUNDERDOG
MLB 155-189 Season-to-Date ($4460)
Game: Colorado at Cincinnati (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Cincinnati -180 (moneyline)
The fourth place Rockies have struggled away from home because of weak pitching. They are on a long road trip, the end of a six game trip. 100-year old Jamie Moyer takes the hill and while he got a lot of publicity for getting an early win at his age, he's been pounded of late with a 1-2 record and a 7.20 ERA in his last three starts, lasting just five innings on average. Moyer suffered a loss Monday as the Rockies fell to the Marlins, 7-4. He pitched 3.2 innings and allowed six runs, nine hits and four walks to go along with five strikeouts. Cincinnati is a tough park to pitch in. The Rockies are 15-36 in their last 51 vs. a team with a winning record and 4-10 in their last 14 road games. They are also 11-23 in their last 34 road games vs. a right-handed starter and face Mat Latos, who has settled down with his new team and has a 3.10 ERA his last three starts fanning 19 in 17 innings. Cincy is playing well, winning seven of eight and the Reds are 22-10 in their last 32 games as a home favorite. Play the Reds.Comment
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Hoopsgooroo
901 Giants -114 @ 1:10p
904 Mets -136 @ 1:10p
905 Rockies +165 @ 1:10p
908 Pirates -118 @ 1:35p
917 Royals +128 @ 1:35p
919 Rays +104 @ 1:35p
922 Twins +107 @ 2:10p
924 White Sox -157 @ 2:10p
909 Phillies -102 @ 2:15p
914 D-Backs -123 @ 4:10p
930 Mariners +136 @ 4:10p
915 Nationals +107 @ 8:05pComment
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Greg Shaker
Sunday Twitter Play #1: #928 Oakland Athletics +105
Sunday Twitter Play #2: #923 Cleveland Indians +141Comment
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