5-28-12

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Rob Vinciletti FREE PLAYS 5-1 +$276 last week(flat $100 bets), 8-4 +$246 last 2 weeks, 69-47 overall, 59.5%

MLB | May 28 Detroit Tigers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox -116 at TopBet

On Monday the Free MLB System Play is on the Boston Redsox. Game 970 at 1:35 eastern. This game fits a nice system that has won 13 of 15 times and plays on home favorites Like Boston off a loss if they had 5 or more hits and left 5 or more men on base vs an opponent off a road favored win and scored 4 or less runs with 10 or more hits and 10 or more men left on base which applies to Detroit. Boston has won 6 of 7 on Monday and scores 5.5 runs in day games. The Tigers have a pitching edge with Fister over Doubront but have a terrible 5.68 road bullpen era. Doubront has pitched much better of late with a 2.04 era for Boston. Look for Boston to take the opener here today. On Monday there are 4 Big plays up led by the AL East Total of the Year from a huge system. We also have a secondary totals system that has won 17 of 18 times and a 90% MLB Blowout system. MLB on a 25-13 run. In the NBA We cashed another big totals play for the 2nd straight night. Tonight we have the Big NBA Totals system winner with several high end angles. NBA on a 14-6 run. Jump on now and cash big on Memorial day. For the free play take Boston. RV

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Today's NBA Picks

Boston at Miami

The Heat look to build on their 5-1 ATS record in their last 6 games as a home favorite of 5 to 10 1/2 points. Miami is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8). Here are all of today's picks

MONDAY, MAY 28 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 703-704: Boston at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 121.954; Miami 131.891 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10; Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 179 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Over

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Today's MLB Picks

Detroit at Boston

The Tigers look to build on their 4-0 record in Doug Fister's last 4 starts as an underdog. Detroit is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Tigers favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MAY 28 Time Posted: 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Washington at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Zimmermann) 16.733; Miami (Zambrano) 14.472 Dunkel Line: Washington by 2 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: Miami (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.428; NY Mets (Niese) 16.562 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+120); Over

Game 955-956: St. Louis at Atlanta (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 14.243; Atlanta (Hanson) 15.177 Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-120); Under

Game 957-958: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.036; Pittsburgh (McDonald) 14.919 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-110); Under

Game 959-960: San Diego at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Suppan) 12.516; Cubs (Wood) 13.967 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-140); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-140); N/A

Game 961-962: Houston at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 14.770; Colorado (Nicasio) 14.422 Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 963-964: Houston at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Lyles) 13.904; Colorado (White) 15.322 Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 965-966: Arizona at San Francisco (5:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Cahill) 15.068; San Francisco (Zito) 14.697 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-110); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-110); Under

Game 967-968: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers (8:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Marcum) 14.812; LA Dodgers (Harang) 15.953 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 7 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+100); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Fister) 16.210; Boston (Doubront) 14.920 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+105); Over

Game 971-972: Oakland at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Blackley) 13.841; Minnesota (Diamond) 14.796 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Over

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Tampa Bay (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 17.091; Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.442 Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-115); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-105); Under

Game 975-976: Kansas City at Cleveland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Adcock) 15.276; Cleveland (Tomlin) 14.495 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-140); 9 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+120); Under

Game 977-978: Baltimore at Toronto (7:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hunter) 14.311; Toronto (Huchison) 15.852 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1 1/2; 11 Vegas Line: Toronto (-140); 10 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (-140); Over

Game 979-980: Seattle at Texas (8:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Millwood) 15.101; Texas (Harrison) 16.652 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 10 1/2 Vegas Line: Texas (-200); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-200); Over

Game 981-982: NY Yankees at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Hughes) 16.819; LA Angels (Weaver) 15.486 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1 1/2; 7 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+135); Under

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Hondo

Hondo took his broom out of the closet and put it to good use yesterday, sweeping with the Reds and Giants to slash the negative numeral to 1,565 mondays.

Today, Mr. Aitch will put 10 units on the D’backs with Cahill on the mound. Also, he will bother Harang for some support -- 10 units on the Dodgers

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Monday

Marlins -120

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TurnerSystem 05/28
Pick: Miami -1.5 (+185)

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 851- 626 (58 %) over the last 4 years PLUS

Free winner Mon Indians -140

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Zimmerman is 2-1, 2.84 in his last three starts. Zambrano is 2-1, 2.83 in his last five outings.
-- Hamels is 7-0, 1.89 in his last eight starts.
-- Hanson is 2-1, 2.25 in his last four starts.
-- McDonald is 3-1, 2.16 in his last six starts. Arroyo is 1-0, 2.45 in his last three non-DH games.
-- WRodriguez has a 2.14 RA in his last three starts.
-- Cahill is 2-1, 2.76 in five road starts this season.
-- Harang is 2-0, 2.84 in his last four starts.

-- Fister has a 2.15 RA in five starts, but no wins. Doubrant is 2-1, 2.55 in his last three outings.
-- Diamond is 3-1, 2.84 in four starts; he hasn't allowed a run in his two home starts (14 IP).
-- Sale is 3-1, 1.93 in his last four starts.
-- Adcock has a 1.80 RA in his last two outings (both five IP).
-- Millwood is 3-0, 0.41 in his last three starts; he's allowed one run in 12 IP in two starts vs Texas this season. Harrison is 1-0, 2.92 in his last two starts.
-- Weaver is 4-0, 0.83 in his four home starts; this is his first home start since his no-hitter May 2. Hughes is 2-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Niese is 1-1, 4.26 RA in his three home starts.
-- Lynn is 1-1, 5.00 in his last three starts.
-- Suppan is 0-3, 6.89 in his last three starts. Wood is 0-1, 3.86 in his first two starts this season.
-- Lyles is 0-1, 6.17 in three starts this season. Nicasio has a 6.93 RA in five home starts this year. White is 1-3, 5.70 in four starts.
-- Zito has a 7.97 RA in his last four starts.
-- Marcum is 0-2, 8.18 in his last couple starts.

-- Blackley was 1-3, 9.35 in eight starts for Seattle in 2004/2007; so far this year, he's allowed one unearned run in six IP for the A's this year.
-- Moore is 0-3, 8.69 in his last four starts.
-- Tomlin is 1-2, 4.93 in six starts this season.
-- Hunter is 0-1, 6.17 in his last four starts. Hutchison is 2-2, 5.57 in his last six starts.

Hot teams
-- Washington won six of its last seven games. Marlins are 7-4 in their last eleven home games.
-- Mets won five of their last six home games. Phillies won four of their last five games.
-- Reds won eight of their last nine games. Pittsburgh won six of its last eight home games.
-- Arizona won three of its last four games. San Francisco won six of its last nine home games.
-- Dodgers won 14 of their last 17 home games.

-- Red Sox won five of their last seven home games. Detroit won its last three games, scoring 20 runs.
-- White Sox won their last five games, scoring 52 runs. Rays won four of their last five games.
-- Royals won seven of their last ten road games.
-- Texas won its last three games, scoring 34 runs.
-- Angels won their last six games, allowing ten runs. Bronx won its last five games, also allowing ten runs.

Cold teams
-- Braves lost their last seven games, scoring 18 runs. St Louis lost three of its last four games.
-- Cubs lost their last 12 games, scoring eight runs in last five.
-- Padres lost six of their last seven games.
-- Rockies lost eight of their last ten games. Houston lost six of their last seven road games.
-- Brewers lost nine of their last twelve road games.

-- Twins lost their last five games, allowing 37 runs. Oakland lost its last five games, scoring a total of eight runs.
-- Indians lost their last three games, allowing 35 runs.
-- Toronto lost its last five games, allowing 46 runs. Orioles lost three of their last four games.
-- Mariners lost four of their last five games.

Totals
-- Over is 12-2 in Miami's last fourteen home games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in lat seven games at Citi Field.
-- Five of last six Atlanta home games went over total.
-- Under is 11-3 in last fourteen Pirate home games. Last three Cincinnati games went over the total.
-- Under is 7-3 in last ten games at Wrigley Field.
-- Over is 10-4-1 in last fifteen games at Coors Field. Seven of last eight Houston road games stayed under.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Giants' last ten home games.
-- Over is 6-3-1 in Dodgers' last ten games.

-- Four of last five games at Fenway Park stayed under.
-- Under is 7-3-1 in Minnesota's last eleven home games.
-- Five of last six White Sox games went over total.
-- Under is 8-4 in Royals' last twelve road games.
-- Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Toronto games.
-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Texas home games.
-- Seven of last nine Angel games stayed under the total.

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Easy Baseball Betting

Our systems say to go for:

Orioles (+132)

Dodgers (+106)

Giants (+109)

Pirates (-107)

Cardinals (+106)

Red Sox (-120)

Mariners (+192)

Mets (+120)

Royals (+130)

Angels (-145)

Nationals (+111)

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

MLB CHI WHITE SOX at TAMPA BAY

Play On - Home teams (TAMPA BAY) below average hitting team (AVG <=.265) against an excellent starting pitcher (ERA <=3.20) -AL, with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities.
132-84 since 1997. ( 61.1% 52.3 units )
12-12 this year. ( 50.0% 1.3 units )

StatFox Situational Power Trends - FoxSheets

MLB BALTIMORE at TORONTO

BALTIMORE is 24-15 (+15.1 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +100 or higher this season.
The average score was: BALTIMORE (4.6) , OPPONENT (4.5)

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NBA BOSTON at MIAMI

Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MIAMI) revenging a loss where team scored less than 85 points, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record.
41-15 over the last 5 seasons. ( 73.2% 24.5 units )
3-3 this year. ( 50.0% -0.3 units )

NBA BOSTON at MIAMI

Play On - Underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (BOSTON) after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less against opponent after scoring 100 points or more 3 straight games.
64-85 since 1997. ( 43.0% 50.7 units )
2-8 this year. ( 20.0% -3.0 units )

NBA BOSTON at MIAMI

Play Under - Any team vs. the 1rst half line after 3 consecutive covers as a favorite against opponent off a home win by 10 points or more.
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% 39.5 units )
2-3 this year. ( 40.0% -1.3 units )

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Cappers Access

Heat
Marlins
Rangers(RL)

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The Sports Capper

Hoops Plays

MONDAY

100* Play Boston (+8.5) over Miami (TOP NBA PLAY)
8:00 PM EST

Miami has lost 19 of the last 27 games coming off three or more OVER the totals and they have also lost 48 of the last 75 home games against the spread after covering the spread in three or more straight games.

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Hoopsgooroo 5/28
951 Nationals Even @ 1:10p
954 Mets +120 @ 1:10p
956 Braves -116 @ 1:10p
958 Pirates -110 @ 1:35p
969 Tigers +108 @ 1:35p
974 Rays -115 @ 3:10p
976 Indians -145 @ 4:05p
966 Giants -105 @ 5:05p
968 Dodgers Even @ 8:10p
982 Angels -150 @ 9:05p

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Sports Wagers MLB

Washington +118 over MIAMI Pinnacle
Jordan Zimmermann pitched well in two starts vs. Miami last season. He's always had pinpoint control and the ability to induce groundballs (50% groundball rate) to form a solid skill set. Zimmerman has allowed one earned run in six of his nine starts and his 2.47 ERA is one of the best among qualified starters in the NL. His 3-4 record is the direct result of poor run support and he certainly offers up more value than his counterpart, Carlos Zambrano. Excessive early career workload caught up to him a couple of years ago and he’s been unable to recapture the form he showed in his heyday. Zambrano has average skills right across the board, aside from a strong 50% groundball rate. However, he’s not had a GB % this high in seven years and it could just be an aberration, as he’s not added anything notable to his repertoire. He was rocked by Colorado (in Miami) in his last start and that could be a sign of things to come. The Nationals are warming up again with a weekend sweep over the Braves and there’s no reason they can’t keep it going here. Play: Washington +118 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago +103 over TAMPA BAY Pinnacle
The White Sox are not only scorching hot right now but they’re seeing beach balls at the dish. After scoring 35 runs in a three-game sweep of the Indians, they suddenly find themselves within a half game of first place. The Chisox have scored six or more runs in five straight and in seven of their past eight. They’ve batted .352 during this latest five-game winning streak and will now face a laboring Matt Moore here. There were high expectations for Moore this season but he has not lived up to them and his skills aren’t showing many reasons for optimism. He has a troublesome groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 36%/19%/46%. He’s walking too many batters and his inability to get ahead in the count combined with that high fly-ball rate has caused Moore to be taken deep eight times in nine starts. Chris Sale has transitioned to being a starter well. His dominant skills as a reliever have followed him. Sale has 48 K’s against just 14 walks in 50 IP. His groundball rate is 48% and his skills have him firmly among the top starters in the league. With their ace going and with the way they’re hitting right now, we have no hesitation in pulling the trigger on this sizzling visitor. Play: Chicago +103 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Yankees +133 over L.A. ANGELS Pinnacle

The Yankees are coming on with five wins in a row. They’re hitting .284 over that stretch while scoring 17 times over the weekend at pitcher-friendly Oakland. After a slow start in April, Phil Hughes has turned it on in May, where he is 3-2 in five starts and has a 3.45 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP. His overall ERA of 4.94 has him undervalued here but Hughes is enjoying a skill rebirth so far in 2012. His velocity is up on his fastball from 91.2 in 2011 to 92.4 MPH this season. He’s struck out 46 in 47 frames while walking just 14. Current Yanks have seen Jared Weaver plenty of times with 233 career AB’s against him in which they’ve hit a combined .262 with 19 home runs. The Angels are enjoying their own six-game winning streak but it came against Seattle and Oakland that pair is among the bottom feeders in terms of offense. Prior to playing the A’s and M’s, the Halos lost a series to the Padres. In summarizing, they’ve played nine straight against weak hitting opponents and they take a big step up in class in facing this offense. Not often do we get a take-back like this one on the Yankees and we’ll look to take advantage. Play: N.Y. Yankees +133 (Risking 2 units).