5-29-12

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 10:26 AM

SPORTS WAGERS

SAN ANTONIO -4½ over Oklahoma City

The Thunder are a very good team. In addition to a successful regular season, they’ve advanced to this stage by beating two solid clubs in the Mavericks and Lakers. They’re a tough out every night and with stars Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, they can never be taken lightly. However, the books have this one wrong. The Spurs closed as a 5½-point choice in Game 1 and did not cover, as they trailed by nine going to the fourth and ended up winning by three. For those of you that cashed your ticket on the Thunder, and there were many folks that did, consider it found money, as we both know it was one of the luckier wins of the year after James Harden hit three desperation triples in the final minute, the last one with no time remaining on the clock to get the Thunder the cover. Let’s not forget that the Spurs had not been battle tested all postseason, they were off for several days and they barely broke a sweat in two previous series when sweeping both the Jazz and Clippers. What should not be ignored is that they rose to the occasion in the fourth quarter. The Spurs opened with a 9-0 run to tie it early on and then scored at will the rest of the way until they were comfortably up by 10 with a minute to go. They dominated on defense and every player that Gregg Popovich sent in was effective and near flawless. The Spurs could certainly be excused for being a little flat during stretches in the first three quarters. The Spurs have beaten OKC three out of four games this season and Manu Ginobili missed the first three. The Spurs are much deeper, more experienced and if the fourth quarter is any indication of things to come, this should be a comfortable cover. Play: San Antonio -4½ (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).

ATLANTA +103 over St. Louis

Pulling the trigger with a team on a losing streak is sometimes tough, especially when said team is a perennial bottom feeder. However, that is not the case with the Braves. They’ve been a model franchise for years. They’re always in the thick of things and they can win almost any night. Like tonight. Jake Westbrook favored in Atlanta is ludicrous. Westbrook’s 1.67 ERA on the road is even more ludicrous as this is a pitcher with average skills that say he cannot maintain that low ERA. His BAA is .267, he has a career 4.27 ERA and the Cardinals have lost four of his last five starts. Against current Braves hitters, Westbrook has a BAA of .325, an OBP of .373 and a slugging percentage of .403. Randall Delgado has had his fair share of bad luck in the early going, with a 10% home run per fly ball rate, 69% strand rate, and an ERA much higher than his xERA. Delgado has impressed with his 50% groundball rate and a solid strikeout rate. There are sure to be some growing pains for Delgado but the future looks bright for the 22-year-old. He’s also been much more effective at home and we have no problem backing him here. Play: Atlanta +103 (Risking 2 units).

Baltimore +128 over TORONTO

The Baltimore Orioles are the surprise of baseball. They lead the AL East and have taken five of seven against the Blue Jays already this season. Jake Arrieta had a 4.66 ERA in 2010 and a 5.05 ERA in 2011 so his 4.87 ERA this season might signify that he is the same pitcher. He’s not. His base skills have improved dramatically with a groundball rate of 48% and a solid BB/K ratio of 16/53 in 61 frames. An unlucky 65% strand rate has Arietta’s ERA at an elevated level but his 2.77 ERA on the road suggests he’s worth keeping an eye on. Arietta deserves better than his current 2-5 mark. Meanwhile, Ricky Romero is a pitcher on a serious skills decline. In his last four starts, Romero has faced Oakland, Minnesota, the Mets and Tampa Bay, not exactly the cream of the crop, resulting in an xERA of 4.52. Romero keeps walking batters. He’s already issued 37 in 65 innings and only half of his 10 starts can be considered quality. Two misleading W/L records oppose one another here. Ricky Romero’s 5-1 record against Jake Arietta’s 2-5 record is misleading but if justice prevails, we should cash this ticket. Play: Baltimore +128 (Risking 2 units).

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 10:27 AM

The Sports Capper

100* (Top NBA Play) Spurs -4.5

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 10:27 AM

FantasySportsGametime

Baseball Tuesday

100* Play Texas (-200) over Seattle (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST

Jason Vargas has lost 10 of the last 12 games coming off a game where he did not walk a batter and he has lost 6 of the last 7 games when the total posted is 10 runs or higher. Jason Vargas has lost 22 of the last 35 games vs. division opponents and he has lost 2 of the last 3 starts with an ERA of 4.95.

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50* Play Tampa Bay (-160) over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Detroit (-160) over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 11:35 AM

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAY

3 UNIT PLAY

San Antonio/ Oklahoma City Over 201.5: I had the Over in game and it was a loser, but I will come right back with it here. In game 1 these teams really were feeling each other out and the offenses never got going till the 4th quarter, but tonight I expect both teams to to be a bit better at the offensive end of the floor. The Spurs put up 101 points in game 1, but for the year they have averaged 105.8 ppg at home, including 106.8 ppg at home in the playoffs. The Spurs have allowed just 93.3 ppg at home this year, but the Thunder are a high scoring team and they have averaged 100.3 ppg on the road this year, plus they have put up 101.8 ppg in the four games these teams have played this year. Game 1 took a while to get going, but game two will be different. these teams will push tempo from the get -go, on their ways to posting an easy over here.

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 11:35 AM

Mti Sports

Mariners
Yankees

Free Pick Reds

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 11:35 AM

Teddy Covers

MLB
10* Atlanta Over 8.5 -125 (906)

MLB
20* Big Ticket: Oakland -110 (925)

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 11:35 AM

4.5-STAR TORONTO over Baltimore - Toronto's Ricky Romero has been rocky lately with walks. Baltimore's Jake Arrieta hasn't been all that effective because he's just not very good. We'll take are chances with the better team and better starter here that Romero can be controlled enough to get a W out of this one.
Toronto won the series opener yesterday, 6-2. They got 12 hits of Orioles pitching in that one. The Orioles are 1-13 since April 14, 2011 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $1050 when playing against. Taking it farther back, the Orioles are 8-44 since September 18, 2007 on the road after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $3110 when playing against. Meanwhile, the Toronto bats stay alive after a game like that. The Blue Jays are 40-9 since September 16, 2006 as a favorite after a win in which they had 12+ hits and it is not the first game of a series for a net profit of $2605. That was the third straight loss for Baltimore as they give the ball to Arrieta looking to end the slide. The Orioles are 0-8 since May 20, 2011 when Jake Arrieta starts after the team lost their last two games for a net profit of $835 when playing against. Toronto is the favorite here, and that's been a strong spot for Romeo. The Blue Jays are 12-2 since May 19, 2011 when Ricky Romero starts as a home favorite for a net profit of $848. Last outing, Romero struck out seven batters and allowed seven walks but just two hits in a loss to Tampa Bay. The Blue Jays are 11-2 since July 21, 2011 when Ricky Romero starts after more strike outs than hits allowed for a net profit of $930. His last outing against Baltimore, coming last August, was a gem, allowing two runs on just four hits and no walks in eight innings in a win over the O's. The Blue Jays are 6-0 since April 01, 2011 when Ricky Romero starts at home after going at least eight innings in his previous start vs this team for a net profit of $610. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: TORONTO 6, Baltimore 4

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 11:35 AM

Jimmy Boyd

***TOP PLAY*** Thunder/Spurs 5* 10-0 ATS Game 2 *BEST BET*
Oklahoma City Thunder +4.5

Boyd's 'Never Lost' 7-0 MLB SMASH!
Cincinnati Reds -118

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 11:35 AM

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Texas/ Seattle Under 10: This has been a low scoring series of late and not just the games played in Seattle, but also the games played here. These teams have played 8 times this year, with the last 7 games putting up no more than 8 runs in a game. The last 4 games played here have put up just 5.5 rpg. Scott Feldman has pitched just 2 games at home this year and he has a solid 1.80 ERA with just 7 rpg being scored in the 2 games. Scott has a 2.97 ERA in his last 5 home starts vs Seattle, with just 1 of those games putting more than 10 runs on the board. Jason Vargas has pitched well this year with a 3.39 ERA, including a 3.34 ERA in his last 6 starts, with those last 6 starts putting up just 6.7 rpg Jason does have a 4.60 ERA in his last 10 starts, vs the Rangers, but only one of those last 10 starts have seen more than 9 runs scored in a game. Texas should have Hamilton back for this one and their offense is better with him in the line up, but he is just 3 for 20 with 0 HR's in his career vs Vargas. Texas had a good home series vs the Blue Jays, but they have averaged just 3 rpg in their last 4 home games with Seattle and their home games overall this year have averaged just 9.3 rpg, after putting up 12+ rpg last year. Seattle averages just 3.9 rpg and the Ranger pen is rock solid, so don't expect a lot of late runs from them if Feldman gets into trouble. Texas home games have gone 13-9 UNDer this year and I see that trend continuing here.

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 01:13 PM

Rich Sports

Sport: MLB Baseball
Game: Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates - Tuesday May 29, 2012 7:05 pm
Pick: 3 units (Normal) MONEYLINE: Cincinnati Reds -125

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 01:13 PM

Nolan Fernandez

nba
Thunder/Spurs over 201.5

Mlb
Phillis/mets (over 9)
cincinati/pirates (over 8)

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 01:13 PM

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Texas/ Seattle Under 10: This has been a low scoring series of late and not just the games played in Seattle, but also the games played here. These teams have played 8 times this year, with the last 7 games putting up no more than 8 runs in a game. The last 4 games played here have put up just 5.5 rpg. Scott Feldman has pitched just 2 games at home this year and he has a solid 1.80 ERA with just 7 rpg being scored in the 2 games. Scott has a 2.97 ERA in his last 5 home starts vs Seattle, with just 1 of those games putting more than 10 runs on the board. Jason Vargas has pitched well this year with a 3.39 ERA, including a 3.34 ERA in his last 6 starts, with those last 6 starts putting up just 6.7 rpg Jason does have a 4.60 ERA in his last 10 starts, vs the Rangers, but only one of those last 10 starts have seen more than 9 runs scored in a game. Texas should have Hamilton back for this one and their offense is better with him in the line up, but he is just 3 for 20 with 0 HR's in his career vs Vargas. Texas had a good home series vs the Blue Jays, but they have averaged just 3 rpg in their last 4 home games with Seattle and their home games overall this year have averaged just 9.3 rpg, after putting up 12+ rpg last year. Seattle averages just 3.9 rpg and the Ranger pen is rock solid, so don't expect a lot of late runs from them if Feldman gets into trouble. Texas home games have gone 13-9 UNDer this year and I see that trend continuing here.

3 UNIT PLAYS

St Louis/ Atlanta Over 8.5: (Added) Pitching was supposed to carry this Braves team this year, but that has not been the case, especially late as they have allowed 5.8 rpg during their current 8 game losing streak, including allowing 7.5 rpg during their current home stand. Before St Louis put 8 runs on them last night they allowed offensively challenged Washington to put 22 runs on them in their 3 game series. This is a struggling staff and for them it's not good going up against a St Louis offense that comes in hitting .314 and scoring 5.6 rpg in their last 5 games. With all the Injuries this team has it just shows how deep offensively they are to still be hitting and scoring that well. Tonight they take a crack at Randall Delgado, who has a 4.53 ERA on the year and has allowed 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts. Randall has averaged just 6 inning per start at home this year and that means he should be turning the ball over pretty early to an Atlanta pen that has a 5.05 ERA at home. Jake Westbrook had a vey nice start to the year, but has struggled of late, with a 7.20 ERA in his last 3 starts. He does have a 1.33 ERA in 4 road starts, but hasn't gone more than 7 innings in his road starts and behind him is a St Louis Pen that has an ERA of 4.94 on the road. The Braves have struggled to score of late, but they still average 5 rpg at home and they should be good for at least 4 runs here, with the Cards put up no less than 5 of their own. This game should reach DD.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

Philadelphia/ NY Mets Over 9 (Added)

Chicago/ San Diego Over 10 (Added)

1 UNIT PLAY

MIAMI -135 over Washington

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 01:14 PM

Pro Tech Sports

5* Washington +140

**Mr. IWS** · 05-29-2012, 01:14 PM

Greg Shaker | MLB Money Line Tue, 05/29/12 - 7:10 PM •
double-dime betml 907 WAS (+126) 5dimes vs 908 Mia

Greg Shaker | MLB Money LineTue, 05/29/12 - 7:05 PM •
double-dime betml 917 BAL (+118) 5dimes vs 918 TOR

Greg Shaker | MLB Money LineTue, 05/29/12 - 7:10 PM •
double-dime betml 922 BOS (+145) 5dimes vs 921 DET

Greg Shaker | MLB Money LineTue, 05/29/12 - 10:05 PM •
double-dime betml 927 NYY (+121) 5dimes vs 928 ANA

Greg Shaker | MLB TotalTue, 05/29/12 - 7:10 PM •
double-dime bet919 CWS / 920 TAM OVER 7 SportsInterAction
Analysis: This number is 7 at some books and 7.5 at others and has trended down. I have 8.4 here. Play this one at 7 for 2% and 7.5 at 1%...The 7 can be played up to -125..

Greg Shaker | NBA TotalTue, 05/29/12 - 9:00 PM •
double-dime bet705 OKL / 706 SAN UNDER 201.5 5dimes
Analysis: You can get 202 here at some books and 201 at others, but this one is what what most have at this writing. While the Thunder like to play the uptempo sort of game, they can't do that verses these Spurs and they figured that out in game 1. You just can't run this team out of the building very often and comments from the Thunder Brass has them working on the penetration that the Spurs had in the fourth quarter. Game 2's of NBA Playoffs has been historically lower scoring than the first and even with the 66 Point 4th quarter in game 1 (a rarity) we saw the first game hit just 199. Game 2 in the last series for both teams saw Final Totals of 152 for the Thunder, and 193 for the Spurs. We have seen an ajustment down here by oddsmakers but not enough with my number here being 196.6. That's 2% for me.

5-29-12

5-29-12

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