5-31-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Thursday

100* Play Houston (+105) over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:40 PM EST

Jeremy Guthrie has lost 19 of the last 32 games when pitching in the month of May and he has lost 10 of the last 16 games when pitching on a Thursday. Jeremy Guthrie has lost 42 of the last 72 games when the total posted is between 9 and 9.5 runs and he is 0-2 in home games this season with an ERA of 9.92.

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50* Play Detroit (+125) over Boston (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play LA Dodgers (+100) over Milwaukee (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers MLB

Houston +106 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings) Pinnacle
Over the past five years as an Oriole, Jeremy Guthrie has proven that he’s a middle of the road pitcher that will never be anything more than a four or five guy. As a soft tosser with control issues, pitching at Coors Field, Guthrie is about as risky a proposition as any pitcher in the majors. In 41 innings, Guthrie has already walked 17 batters while striking out just 18. His WHIP in May (1.71) is alarmingly high and his 5.31 ERA is right in line with his 5.03 xERA. Pitching for the 20-29 Rockies, Guthrie deserves to be favored over few pitchers and Bud Norris isn’t one of them. The Astros have won eight of Norris’s 10 starts. Norris has had one bad outing all year and has allowed just one jack over his last six starts. He has an elite strikeout rate of 62 batters in 62 innings while issuing just 22 free passes. The Astros have dropped five in a row and their bullpen is shaky, especially after last night’s debacle. However, we certainly like Norris to outpitch Guthrie over the first five frames and that’s the way we’ll play this one. Play: Houston +106 in the first five innings (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Teddy Covers

MLB
10* Milwaukee -120 (903)

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Red Sox -140

50* Dodgers / Brewers Over 6.5

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd 5/31

5* Oklahoma City Thunder -4

3* Los Angeles Dodgers +105

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

Detroit Tigers vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Detroit Tigers

The Red Sox are going better lately and Josh Beckett gas gotten on track. But my numbers say the value here is with the road team at the price, so the Tigers are the choice tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover

Houston Astro's +110

Generally it's advisable to stay away from the Astros when they are on the road. But this matchup is an exception.

Houston has the better pitcher going and is an underdog. The Rockies are starting Jeremy Guthrie, who has yet to prove he can successfully pitch at Coors Field, and most likely are going to be missing star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who left Wednesday's game with a sore groin.

Guthrie has yet to win at Coors where his ERA is a fat 9.92. He has surrendered six earned runs in each of his last three home starts. Making this even worse is that those opponents all were weak-hitting teams - the Mariners, Padres and Giants.

Norris has allowed just four earned runs during his last five starts spanning 30 2/3 innings. The Astros are 5-1 in Norris' last six starts. Norris is Houston's best strikeout pitcher, a key when pitching at Coors.

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Oklahoma City/ San Antonio Under 206: After seeing game 2 the obvious way to look would be to the Over, but I will head the other way here. Despite all the points that San Antonio has put up during their win streak, they do not want to run with this Thunder team. The Spurs allowed 111 points in their last game and 98 points in game 1 an that is unlike this team as they allowed just 88.8 ppg in their first 8 playoff games this year. I expect the Spurs to tighten it up a bit at the defensive end in this one. For the Thunder they have played good defense at home this year, allowing just 95.5 ppg at home overall and just 90.5 ppg at home in the playoffs. This team can not be happy about allowing 120 sand 101 points in the first 2 games of this series. Thunder home games have averaged 200 ppg, while their home playoff games have averaged just 191 ppg. I expect a bit more defense in this one than in games 1 and 2 as this game is played in the 190's.

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Houston Astros +106

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin

OKC -4

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo

906 Red Sox -133 @ 7:10p
903 Brewers -117 @ 10:10p

[Mr. IWS]

5-STAR Detroit over BOSTON - Max Scherzer has not been great this season but he has been maybe the unluckiest pitcher in baseball with 12.00 Ks per nine and a ridiculous .394 Batting Average On Balls In Play against him. He's been better than Josh Beckett this season despite the ERA and that makes him a huge value as a dog here. Scherzer's one true problem this year has been the long ball, as he's allowed 1.67 per nine, including two in his last start, a win over Minnesota. The Tigers are 11-0 since May 30, 2010 when Max Scherzer starts after giving up 2 or more home runs for a net profit of $1145. Josh Beckett has now put a nice run of three starts together, all resulting in Boston wins. The Red Sox are 5-16 since July 25, 2011 as a favorite when they won the last two games their starter started for a net profit of $1942 when playing against. The last was a 3-2 victory over David Price and the Rays as a small home favorite. The Red Sox are 1-5 since July 28, 2011 when Josh Beckett starts as a favorite after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $780 when playing against. Boston won yesterday's matchup, 6-4. The Tigers are 27-4 since May 22, 2011 after a loss and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $2176. Also, the Tigers are 16-5 since May 22, 2011 on the road after allowing 6+ runs for a net profit of $1125. Meanwhile this is not a great spot for Boston. The Red Sox are 6-20 since July 28, 2011 as a favorite and it is the last game of the series for a net profit of $2202 when playing against. Detroit actually had led 3-0 in that game before their pitching fell apart. The Tigers are 20-6 since June 09, 2011 when they are off a loss in which they held the lead for a net profit of $1207. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are 3-13 since August 10, 2011 as a favorite when they are off a win in which they came back from a deficit in a night game for a net profit of $1618 when playing against. Boston is going for the rare four-game sweep in this one, having taken three straight from Detroit. The Tigers are 13-3 since May 22, 2011 vs a team that has won at least their last two games and it is the last game of a series for a net profit of $846. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Detroit 5, BOSTON 2

[Mr. IWS]

Jamie Tursini

Spurs +4

[Mr. IWS]

Jack Jones


Boston Red Sox -133


The Boston Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now. Boston (26-24) has gotten to two games over .500 for the first time all year thanks to three straight wins over the Detroit Tigers to open this series. The Red Sox have scored a combined 19 runs in the three victories.


After a shaky start, Josh Beckett has pitched very well of late. Beckett is 2-2 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.053 WHIP in five home starts this season, and 2-0 with a 1.25 ERA and 0.877 WHIP in his last three outings. He has allowed just 3 earned runs over 21 2/3 innings in his last three starts.


Max Scherzer is one of the most overrated starters in the big leagues. The right-hander is 4-3 with a 5.67 ERA and 1.537 WHIP through 10 starts this season. Scherzer has never beaten Boston, going 0-2 with a whopping 11.81 ERA and 2.313 WHIP in four career starts against the Red Sox. He has allowed 14 earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in his last two starts against them.


Detroit is 5-20 against the money line in road games vs. AL teams scoring 5.2 or more runs/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. The Red Sox are 30-11 in Beckett's last 41 starts as a home favorite. Boston is 9-2 in their last 11 home games. The Tigers are 26-59 in their last 85 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150. Bet Boston Thursday.