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Pittsburgh +136 over CINCINNATI Pinnacle
Not many people look at the daily standings in MLB so it might surprise you to learn that the Pirates are 27-26 and in second place in the NL Central, just three games back of these first-place Reds. The Bucs have managed to get above .500 despite an awful team batting average of .222. The Pirates are very likely to boost that batting average and when they do, more victories should follow. A.J. Burnett is out of the spotlight in New York and he’s responded rather well. Burnett has flashed a new profile in his first stint in the NL, as he’s now a command artist with just 14 walks in 50 innings to go along with 42 K’s. He also owns an elite 58% groundball rate and that’s more significant at this park than most others. Burnett’s 3.09 xERA suggests that his 3.60 ERA and 1.24 WHIP are no flukes. Homer Bailey went the distance against the Pirates in his last start and needed just 104 pitches to do so. He’s now won three straight and has posted a 2.53 ERA over that span. How many times have we seen a pitcher of Bailey’s caliber dominate a team and then blow up a week later when facing the same team? It seems to happen quite a bit and Bailey has never showed any prolonged consistency. The table is set nicely here and we’ll take our seat.Play: Pittsburgh +136 (Risking 2 units).
Los Angeles +169 over PHILADELPHIA Pinnacle
The Dodgers took the best record in the NL into Philadelphia last night and proceeded to take the opener in this series. The Phillies have now dropped three in a row at home while scoring just eight runs over that span. Cliff Lee needs no introduction. He’s a model of consistency and his 3.00 ERA is backed by full skills support. However, he’s winless in eight starts and that first win gets more difficult with each passing start, knowing that it’ll be another five day wait if he doesn’t get a win here. With the Phillies struggling at the plate and with the ongoing absence of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley, laying a tag like this is too risky when the game could very well be decided by the pens. Chad Billingsley has been wildly inconsistent this season but we’ve come to expect that from him. What is evident is that he’s capable of throwing a gem, as evidenced by a 55%/27% dominant start/disaster start split. Billingsley’s skills are above average with 60 K’s in 62 frames, a groundball bias profile and a 3.72 xERA. Phillies are overpriced here. Play: Los Angeles +169 (Risking 2 units).
MIAMI -8 over Boston: I like the Heat in this one. I expected them to win at least one of the games in Boston, but the crowd gave the C's a bit more energy than I thought they would and they used that energy to take both games. Although Rondo has had a magnificent East Finals series (24.0 PPG, 10.5 APG, 7.0 RPG), he has to be tired after logging 46.8 minutes per game. But at least Rondo is still young at 26 years old, which is not the case for Garnett (36), SG Ray Allen (36) or SF Paul Pierce (34), who played 43, 46 and 39 minutes, respectively on Sunday night. This team has to be tired. Miami plays excellent at home and they have outscored their opponent by 11.5 ppg on this floor this year, plus Boston does come in having lost their last 4 on the road by an average of 8.5 ppg. The Heat may also have the added bonus of getting Bosh back in this one as well. The Heat has lost just 6 times on this floor and after coming out flat in their last 2 games they will look to put the Celtics away early. Boston will fold in the second half of this one as the heat win by 15+.
Boston at Miami
The Heat look to build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Miami is the pick (-8) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8)
Game 719-720: Boston at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 122.689; Miami 132.557
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 8; 179
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Over
MLB
St. Louis at Houston
The Astros look to take advantage of a St. Louis team that is 0-5 in Jaime Garcia's last 5 starts against a team with a losing record. Houston is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Astros favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130)
Game 951-952: NY Mets at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Hefner) 14.564; Washington (Zimmermann) 16.233
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-155); Under
Game 953-954: LA Dodgers at Philadelphia (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Billingsley) 16.216; Philadelphia (Lee) 15.022
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-180); 7
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+160); Over
Game 955-956: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 14.734; Cincinnati (Bailey) 16.237
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-145); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-145); Over
Game 957-958: Atlanta at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.896; Miami (Sanchez) 15.522
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Miami (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+115); Under
Game 959-960: St. Louis at Houston (8:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 14.177; Houston (Harrell) 14.974
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+130); Under
Game 961-962: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Dempster) 14.987; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 14.671
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+130); Over
Game 963-964: Colorado at Arizona (9:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Guthrie) 14.689; Arizona (Kennedy) 15.544
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-145); Over
Game 965-966: San Francisco at San Diego (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Lincecum) 14.779; San Diego (Bass) 12.830
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 2; 5
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-115); 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-115); Under
Game 967-968: Tampa Bay at NY Yankees (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Shields) 17.068; NY Yankees (Pettitte) 15.424
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-135); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+115); Under
Game 969-970: Cleveland at Detroit (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Jimenez) 13.710; Detroit (Smyly) 14.963
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Detroit (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-155); Over
Game 971-972: Baltimore at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 14.315; Boston (Lester) 15.938
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-155); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-155); Over
Game 973-974: Minnesota at Kansas City (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Liriano) 15.212; Kansas City (Chen) 14.456
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+120); Under
Game 975-976: Toronto at Chicago White Sox (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.437; White Sox (Humber) 17.318
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Toronto (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-105); Under
Game 977-978: Seattle at LA Angels (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Beavan) 16.776; LA Angels (Richards) 15.548
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 9
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+130); Over
Game 979-980: Texas at Oakland (10:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.420; Oakland (Blackley) 14.704
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas (-160); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-160); Over
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