11-13-08

[Mr. IWS]

November 13 2008
Frank Patron 5000 Unit Thursday Two Pack

Frank Patron

5000 Unit Thursday Two Pack

Akron Zips -3.5

New York Jets +3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Andre Gomes
Premium Pick:

New York Jets @ 308 New England Patriots

The Jets are in a good moment right now, with 3-0 on their last 3 games and the impression that I have is that the team is improving and becoming better game after game and that's especially important to understand that this team is better than the one who faced the Patriots on week 2. When that happens and the team has revenge, then the spot becomes very strong and the Jets are today in a very favorable position, especially when they dogs in this game, as it only gives them more value. I remember one trend that I've found: teams, who are revenging a home loss against an opponent, are 22-4 on the last 10 seasons in games involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season.

I've also have to refer that these two teams had a short week for this game and they will come to it in different conditions. While the Jets have easily defeated the Rams by 47-3 and so, they could save some energies for this game, the Patriots had a divisional game against the Bills, which was surely much harder and more tiring than the game of the Jets. Adalius Thomas is the new player on the injury list of the Pats and he will be missed much more than most people may think he will. Thomas was able to rush and drop back into coverage, and his size meant the Pats were covered against the run in the nickel. It will be impossible for one player to replace him. I remember he was the team's leader in terms of sacks with 5 until now. Matt Cassel has been better and he has improved a lot, however if we noticed the last game of the Patriots against the Bills, he had 9 rush plays for 34 pass attempts. This shows that sometimes he hasn't been able to find any offensive solutions and that he is obligated to run with the football. This will be a concern for this game, as the Jets are second in the NFL in sacks (31) and first in forced fumbles (13). If the Pats allowed 3 sacks against the Rams, no sacks against the Colts and 1 sack last week against the Bulls, today's challenge will be much harder to pass.

The offense of the Jets is well balanced. Thomas Jones leads the AFC in rushing yards (750), with the Jets being the 9th best rushing team on the league, with 123.4 yards/game. Without Adalius Thomas, the Patriots will struggle a lot on this matchup. The X factor of this game will be between the run defense of the Jets and the RB's of the Pats. The Pats have been using their rushing game in order to win their last game, in fact they have outplayed their opponents on the floor on the last 6 games they've played: +67, +8, +151, +8, +93 and +84 rushing yards than their opponents. But today they will face a top rush defense team. The Jets are the 5th best team on the league in rush defense, with 76.4 rushing yards allowed per game and all the edge the Pats had on their last game is gone on this week's game.

The Jets lost at home against the Pats by 10-19 earlier this season. Even though the Patriots outgained the Jets by just four yards, they took advantage of a Favre interception and a missed field goal by Jay Feely to beat the Jets for the 13th time in the last 16 meetings. This quote from a Jets played defines what this game is all about:

"After that game, it was disappointing, but we knew we had to keep moving on," New York defensive end Shaun Ellis said. "One thing I remember people saying in that locker room after the game was, 'We'll have another shot.' Here's our opportunity, so we have to go out and get a win in their home stadium."

Take the NY Jets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Regular Play) on 307 New York Jets (+3)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

ATS Lock Club
3 Jets +3.5
3 Denver Nuggets +7.5

ATS Financial Package
3 Wyoming +7
3 Detroit Pistons -4.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Sebastian:


100* Vegas Steam Play is NEW ENGLAND.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

brian hansen thursday night goy!
Game: Buffalo at Akron Nov 13 2008 7:00PM
Prediction: Buffalo
Reason: With hopes of a Mid-American Conference championship still flickering, Buffalo travels to Akron in what is being called one of the Bulls' biggest regular season games in school history. A victory would make Buffalo bowl eligible for the first time since the program became a Division I-A program in 1999. A berth to the International Bowl could be on the horizon. The biggest factor in this game is that Buffalo is already a perfect 4-0 ATS when playing the roll of underdog and 2-0 ATS off a win against a conference rival. And it’s also interesting to note that Akron is 0-1 ATS this year when the line is +3 to –3. My Thursday Night Game of the Year is on BUFFALO U.!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

nick parsons thursday acc goy!
Game: Virginia Tech at Miami FL Nov 13 2008 7:45PM
Prediction: Miami FL
Reason: MIAMI – Virginia Tech has held the upper hand in this series but a lot has changed about each of these teams comparing last season to this season. This is why, even though the Hurricanes got blown out by the Hokies last season, the Canes are the play this season in the “rematch”. Last season Miami lost to Virginia Tech by thirty points but it was at a time when nothing was going right for the Hurricanes program. This season the Canes are a solid 6-3 on the season and they’ve won four straight games. The Miami defense has really stepped up as they’ve allowed 17 points or less in three of their last four games! The Canes are well rested here as they haven’t played since their OT win over Virginia on the 1st of the month. Also, Miami’s two-QB system seems to be panning out very well and Miami is getting solid production from a young group of wide receivers! Note that this is Miami’s final home game this season and they’ve played very well at Dolphin Stadium as this was their first season in it after moving over from the Orange Bowl. The Canes have enjoyed their new home field and being at home for this game certainly gives them a key edge in trying to stay alive in the ACC race. The extra time they’ve had off in comparison with Virginia Tech is also an edge. The Hokies had to play last Thursday (versus Maryland) and, so far this season, ACC teams have had a big edge when they are rested and their opponent is not. The rested team has gotten the win in nearly every single instance! The Hokies have a reputation for performing well in primetime games and they are use to having the cameras in Blacksburg for big games. However, with this game being in Miami and with the Canes having the rest edge, things are shaping up a little different for this one and yet many will still buy into the Hokies current string of success in Thursday night TV games! Virginia Tech does not have much of a passing attack and that means the Canes can stack the line to stop the run as they basically challenge the Hokies quarterbacks to beat them through the air. That is unlikely to occur and note that Virginia Tech has scored 23 points or less in all five of their ACC games. The Canes, although not known as an offensive powerhouse, certainly have weapons on that side of the ball and they’ve erupted for 39 points versus Florida State and 49 points at Duke in a pair of impressive offensive performances within the ACC this season. Take the more balanced offense in this match-up as that will key a solid home win for the Canes as they continue their impressive run. Miami is seeking it’s fifth straight win while Virginia Tech was coming off back to back losses before finally getting back on track against Maryland last week. Miami sends Virginia Tech tumbling right back down here as they hand their third loss in their last four games. That’s the value of momentum and confidence in College Football and, right now, the Canes have it while the Hokies do not!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

mti side play of the year!
Game: New York Jets at New England Patriots Nov 13 2008 8:15PM
Prediction: New England Patriots
Reason: For the second straight week the Patriots are 3’ point home favorites over a divisional opponent with whom they are tied for the division lead. We liked the Pats last week and we like them again here.
The Jets had a “laugher” last week. They humiliated the Rams 47-3 and they were up 40-0 at the half. It wasn’t Brett Favre running up the score either. He was 14-of-19 passing and did not throw an interception for the first time in seven games. With a big lead the Jets featured the run and accumulated 206 rushing yards. This is not a good sign for them. NY is 0-15 ATS off a game in which they rushed for at least fifty yards more than their season-to-date average, as long as it didn’t take them more than 42 rushes to do it. The Jets are 1-14 straight up in this situation, with their only win by a 28-24 margin laying 13 points. Clearly, NY has not lived up to the linesmakers’ expectations in this spot.
The Jets are also terrible when their passing game was efficient. NY is 0-15 ATS (-8.0 ppg) as a dog when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. This trend was active in week three this season on Monday Night football when the Jets got annihilated 49-28 by the Chargers.
In a related trend, we note that the Jets are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) the week after they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average at home.
The last nail in the coffin for the Jets is that they are 0-6 ATS the week after a 20+ point win, losing every game straight up.
Although the final scoring doesn’t indicate it, the Patriots dominated the Bills last week. New England had 24 first downs and the Bills had only ten. The Patriots had 37:40 of possession time and 370 yards of offense vs the Bills 168. Buffalo’s lone TD drive came inside the two-minute warning off an 85-yard kickoff return with the Pats up 20-3 New England’s defense held the Bills to 108 yards passing and this is a good sign. The Patriots are 10-0-1 the week after holding their opponent to less than 21 points and at least 100 passing yards fewer than their season-to-date average. Finally, the Jets have had a ball-control offense this season, averaging 32:03 this season. The Patriots have had no trouble at all vs such teams, as they are 7-0 SU and 7-0 ATS as a favorite over any team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season to date, winning by an average of 16.3 ppg and covering by an average of 11.7 ppg. Unlike last week, Brett Favre will be pressed into action and he has proven he will turn the ball over under these circumstances. His brain in still 24, but his arm and legs are 39 years old. Belichick will have a game plan designed to capitalize on this weakness. Lay the points.
MTi’s FORECAST: NEW ENGLAND 24 NY Jets 13

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

John Ryan - comp

Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Buffalo AiS shows a 73% probability that Buffalo will lose this game by 3 or fewer points and has a 52% probability of winning the game. Buffalo is in a solid position for an ATS win noting they are 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 3 seasons. Akron is not in a strong role to defend their home turf noting they are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games since 1992. HC Gill is in a series of strong roles as well that reinforce the Ai S grading. Note that Gill is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins; 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a road underdog. This game has implications as it will break a first place tie in conference play. Buffalo has the edge though as they rank first in the MAC and 9th nationally with a +10 turnover margin. They take exceptional care of the ball on offense having just 9 turnovers ranking 5th nationally. Based on the published reports there is NO doubt that they are strongly focused for this game with a simple goal of consistency in execution on every play. Take Buffalo

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

IC - COMP

UCLA Bruins over Miami of Ohio.

Once again, I don't have a line to work with here as I am writing this free pick early in the morning (6:30am) when no line has been released in this game. But regardless of a line, I like UCLA as Miami of Ohio struggled past Weber State and although UCLA didn't look overly impressive against Prairie View in the minds of bettors as they failed to cover the spread, this is a game that I can easily see UCLA blowing out Miami of Ohio as similar to Duke who failed to cover the first spread against Presbyterian, they came back in game 2 to absolutely pummel Georgia Southern. Why in the world can it not happen here? This will be my freebie today as I like UCLA to get it done over Miami of Ohio. Of course, note, that I do not have a line to roll with yet, but whatever the line is, this is my freebie for the day. I faded Miami of Ohio when they faced Weber State yesterday and I will fade them once again today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Kelso Sturgeon's

November to Remember package Pick for tonight: 25-units on the Jets



3 UnitsMiamiFlorida (-4½) over Virginia Tech
7:30 PM -- Dolphin Stadium
Miami by 7-10 Points
Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

5 UnitsUNLV (-7) over Wyoming
9:00 PM -- Sam Boyd Stadium
UNLV by 13-14 Points
Clear. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Jr. Sports

10 unit - Miami-Fla

5 unit - New England

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Erin Rynning NBA Playmaker: Chicago -1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Nick Bogdanovich

Medium - Virginia Tech (+4½) over MiamiFlorida

Medium - Patriots (-3½) over Ny Jets

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Rocketman Sports Guaranteed Selections

Date: Thursday, November 13, 2008
$25.00 Guaranteed: Rocketman Sports has Three 3* NHL plays for Thursday including two more underdog plays guaranteed to produce you an overall profit or you don't pay! Join us! Rocketman is documented #1 in the nation this year in the NHL and we cashed again last night for you including another TOP RATED 5* NHL Underdog winner on Colorado +155. 11/13/2008

Rocketman Sports plays are rated 1-5 units!

NHL Montreal @ Boston 7:05 PM EST

Play On: 3* Montreal -120

Montreal is 18-6 SU and ATS overall vs Boston last 3 years. Canadiens are 5-0 in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. Canadiens are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Canadiens are 13-3 in their last 16 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Canadiens are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Canadiens are 16-5 in their last 21 Thursday games. Canadiens are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win. Canadiens are 9-3 in their last 12 overall. Canadiens are 21-9 in their last 30 vs. Northeast. Bruins are 3-7 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Bruins are 4-14 in their last 18 games playing on 0 days rest. Bruins are 1-4 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Canadiens are 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Boston. Canadiens are 36-15-1 in the last 52 meetings. We'll play Montreal for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky





NY Islanders @ Ottawa 7:35 PM EST

Play On: 3* NY Islanders +210

Ottawa is 11-16 last 3 years at home when the total is 5 1/2. Ottawa is 1-6 this year when playing against a team with a losing record. Islanders are 20-9-3 in their last 32 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Senators are 7-17 in their last 24 overall. Senators are 2-5 in their last 7 vs. Atlantic. Senators are 7-18 in their last 25 vs. Eastern Conference. Senators are 3-8 in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest. Senators are 2-7 in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Senators are 3-11 in their last 14 home games. Senators are 2-8 in their last 10 games following a loss of 3 or more goals. Senators are 3-14 in their last 17 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. We'll play NY Islanders for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky





Calgary @ San Jose 10:35 PM EST
Play On: 3* Calgary +175

San Jose #1 goalie is out again tonight. Flames are 6-2 in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest. Flames are 5-2 in their last 7 games following a win. Flames are 14-6 in their last 20 in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation. We'll play Calgary for 3 units tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 11-13-08

Bob Balfe

Jets