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Jeff Scott Sports
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Mets/ Tampa Bay Over 7: On one hand I hope the law of averages works in my favor, but on the other hand i hope it doesn't screw me as well. Let me explain. R.A. Dickey hasn't allowed an ER in his last 3 starts and one would think that that will not continue much longer. He does have a 1.24 ERA in his last 7 starts, but also a 3.58 ERA on the road this year, with his road starts averaging 9.2 rpg. For Tampa bay the will send out David Price who comes in with a .93 ERA in his last 3 starts and a .96 ERA at home this year and I do not expect him to keep that up this year. He is due to be hit a bit, especially since he has thrown 109+ pitches in each of his last 4 starts. Despite his low home ERA, his home starts have still averaged 7 rpg, thanks mainly to an offense that puts up 5 rpg for him at home, while overall they score 4 rpg at home. The Mets score very well on the road at 4.74 rpg and they do hit lefties at a .254 clip away from home. Now for the part where i hop the law of averages DON'T catch up. Met games vs lefties have gone 18-2-1 to the Over this year, including a 10-0-1 Over mark on the road. I know that must end sometime. Im just hoping not tonight. I do feel that both pitchers are due to be hit and in a game where we need just 3 runs each to at least get a push i'll take a solid shot at the Over here.
NY Yanks/ Atlanta Over 8: Tim Hudson is getting up there in age and for the past year plus it has shown some when he comes off a high pitch count game. Dating back to the beginning of 2011 Tim has mad 41 starts and he has a 3.34 ERA overall in those starts, but he has an ERA a full point higher (4.36) in the 15 starts he has coming off a game in which he threw 100+ pitches ( I did a little work on that one. LOL). He has one start this year off a game in which he threw 108 pitches and he allowed 5 ER's in just 5.2 innings of work in that game. Tim has a 3.83 ERA overall, but a 5.92 ERA at home and he has allowed 12 ER's in his last 2 home starts. The Yankee hitters should be able to tag him for a few in this one and then once Tim is out he will turn the ball over to a pen that has a 5.224 ERA at home. Hiroki Kuroda has a nice 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts, but a 4.17 ERA on the road this year and a 4.40 ERA at night. The Braves offense has been good at home this year Averaging 4.9 rpg and should be good for a few off of Hiroki. NY Road games have averaged 9.2 rpg, while Brave home games have put up 10.1 rpg. I see at least 10 in this game.
OTHER PLAY
2 UNIT PLAY
Washington -142 over TORONTO
Milwaukee/ Kansas City Over 9
LA Angels/ LA Dodgers Over 6.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia -150 over MINNESOTA
SAN FRAN -1.5 (+115) over Houston
TOP PLAYS
3 UNIT PLAY
NY Mets/ Tampa Bay Over 7: On one hand I hope the law of averages works in my favor, but on the other hand i hope it doesn't screw me as well. Let me explain. R.A. Dickey hasn't allowed an ER in his last 3 starts and one would think that that will not continue much longer. He does have a 1.24 ERA in his last 7 starts, but also a 3.58 ERA on the road this year, with his road starts averaging 9.2 rpg. For Tampa bay the will send out David Price who comes in with a .93 ERA in his last 3 starts and a .96 ERA at home this year and I do not expect him to keep that up this year. He is due to be hit a bit, especially since he has thrown 109+ pitches in each of his last 4 starts. Despite his low home ERA, his home starts have still averaged 7 rpg, thanks mainly to an offense that puts up 5 rpg for him at home, while overall they score 4 rpg at home. The Mets score very well on the road at 4.74 rpg and they do hit lefties at a .254 clip away from home. Now for the part where i hop the law of averages DON'T catch up. Met games vs lefties have gone 18-2-1 to the Over this year, including a 10-0-1 Over mark on the road. I know that must end sometime. Im just hoping not tonight. I do feel that both pitchers are due to be hit and in a game where we need just 3 runs each to at least get a push i'll take a solid shot at the Over here.
NY Yanks/ Atlanta Over 8: Tim Hudson is getting up there in age and for the past year plus it has shown some when he comes off a high pitch count game. Dating back to the beginning of 2011 Tim has mad 41 starts and he has a 3.34 ERA overall in those starts, but he has an ERA a full point higher (4.36) in the 15 starts he has coming off a game in which he threw 100+ pitches ( I did a little work on that one. LOL). He has one start this year off a game in which he threw 108 pitches and he allowed 5 ER's in just 5.2 innings of work in that game. Tim has a 3.83 ERA overall, but a 5.92 ERA at home and he has allowed 12 ER's in his last 2 home starts. The Yankee hitters should be able to tag him for a few in this one and then once Tim is out he will turn the ball over to a pen that has a 5.224 ERA at home. Hiroki Kuroda has a nice 0.82 ERA in his last 3 starts, but a 4.17 ERA on the road this year and a 4.40 ERA at night. The Braves offense has been good at home this year Averaging 4.9 rpg and should be good for a few off of Hiroki. NY Road games have averaged 9.2 rpg, while Brave home games have put up 10.1 rpg. I see at least 10 in this game.
OTHER PLAY
2 UNIT PLAY
Washington -142 over TORONTO
Milwaukee/ Kansas City Over 9
LA Angels/ LA Dodgers Over 6.5
1 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia -150 over MINNESOTA
SAN FRAN -1.5 (+115) over Houston
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