6-14-12

[Mr. IWS]

4-STAR Milwaukee over KANSAS CITY - Luke Hochevar has been somewhat unlucky to end up with a 6.57 ERA so far this season, but at some point, much of that falls on him. Even if his true ERA should be around five, that's still putting him near replacement level. Shaun Marcum provides consistency for Milwaukee and is in line for a good outing here.

The Brewers could use a good outing from Marcum as they look to avoid the three-game sweep there. The Royals are 0-13 since April 22, 2011 as a dog vs a team that has lost at least their last two games after playing in a night game for a net profit of $1300 when playing against.
Milwaukee lost 4-3 last night. They led almost the entire way before giving up two run in the bottom of the ninth then losing the game in extra innings. The Brewers are 14-0 since April 09, 2011 as a favorite when they are off a loss in which they held the lead in a night game for a net profit of $1400.
Milwaukee had 13 hits in that game, leaving 13 men on base as a team. KC stranded 8. The Brewers are 15-2 since April 24, 2011 as a favorite after a loss in which they had a higher team-left-on-base than their opponent in a night game for a net profit of $1213. Also, the Royals are 4-13 since May 21, 2011 as a dog after a win in which they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent in a night game for a net profit of $675 when playing against.
Hochevar avoided the long ball in his last start but allowed nine hits and four runs in six innings in a 4-2 loss to the Pirates. The Royals are 1-9 since April 20, 2011 when Luke Hochevar starts as a dog after going at least 6 innings and giving up no home runs for a net profit of $770 when playing against. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: Milwaukee 6, KANSAS CITY 3

[Mr. IWS]

Top Sport Cappers

Neil Larson

20* Minnesota Twins -140

[Mr. IWS]

EZWINNERS

3* Cleveland Indians +121
3* New York Mets +111
3* Chicago Cubs +183
3* Houston Astros +124
3* Arizona Diamondbacks +148
3* Chicago White Sox +116

[Mr. IWS]

Brian Laverty

NY Mets +119 (2 Units)

Hellickson is pitching much better then his predicted numbers, and is due for a regression in a big way (4.74 FIP, but just a 2.65 ERA). The Mets offense is on fire right now, and I expect the numbers to finally catch up to Hellickson. Santana coming off the bad effort, but he should be rested with just 86 pitches last time out. The Rays offense is a complete mess right now, and I expect Santana to shut them down. Mets complete the sweep.

Cubs/Tigers Under 7.5 -123 (1.5 Units)

Arizona +137 (1.5 Units)

[Mr. IWS]

401 K SPORTS

Don't forget to salute every flag you see today. Not many remember today is flag day. It is by far the least remembered of all our holidays

Thurs plays
2** Oakland even over Colorado(3pm) - Oakland has benefited from the cure all for hitting woes, Colorado pitching. White has disappointed this year and his good stretches have been few and far between. I will take the more consistent pitcher at even money here.

1* Milwaukee -115 over KC(8pm)
1* Milwaukee -1.5 runs +145 over KC - Marcum has turned around his season around after a rough beginning to the season. 3-0 with a 2.29 ERA L3 games. The Brewers have started scoring runs for Marcum. Hochevar has a 10.39 ERA at home and a 6.37 ERA overall.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
3-Unit Play. #919. Take Chicago Whitesox +115 St. Louis Cardinals (Thursday @ 8:15pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Greg Shaker
OVER 10.5 - A's / Rockies

THURSDAY NITE MLB TOTAL DOMINATOR!!!
OVER 8.5 - Brewers / Royals

[Mr. IWS]

Beat The Odds - Vegas Davis Picks

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants
3 units on San Francisco Giants -135

Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
3 units on Texas Rangers -155

Miami Heat at Oklahoma City Thunder
3 units on Oklahoma City Thunder -5

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Thursday 6/14/12 Plays...

HIGHEST RATED 6* ASTROS ML/LP

---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 6/14
912 Orioles -108 @ 7:05p
914 Rangers -155 @ 8:05p
918 Twins -135 @ 8:10p
919 White Sox +114 @ 8:15p

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports Picks For NBA Basketball


5-Unit NBA Game of the Week #503 Take Miami/Oklahoma City UNDER 196 (9 p.m. EST, Thursday)

Even though Game 1 got to 199, the game was on pace to go under most of the game and it was only in garbage time with the normal late-game fouling that this one went over the posted total. And we think that Miami, the better defensive team in this matchup, will make some defensive adjustments tonight because they don't want a shootout with OKC and would prefer a lower-scoring game here. The 105 points the Thunder scored was the most the Heat have allowed during regulation in these playoffs. The Thunder's 52 percent shooting was about five percentage points above their season average. Just don't think that they can put up that many points and shoot that well against a Top 5 defense like the Heat two games straight. We thought the Game 1 total was a bit of a public number but we liked the Thunder in that one so we wanted to see how the game played out before attacking the total. And it played out pretty much how we wanted to and that sets us up for a play tonight going against the public, who are obviously very heavy on the over.

Best of Luck - Doc Sports

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports Picks For Major League Baseball


4-unit Play Take #912 Baltimore Orioles (-110) over Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05pm EST) The Baltimore Orioles look for the sweep against the Pittsburgh Pirates in Camden Yards today. The O's won the first two games of the series 8-6 and 7-1 as they flexed their muscle at the plate. The Orioles continue to prove the skeptics wrong as they improved to 36-26 on the season, just one game out of first in the toughest division in baseball. It's clear by now that they aren't going anywhere anytime soon and will be contenders for the foreseeable future. The Orioles lineup also just got a boost as former All-Star second basemen Brian Roberts returned from the disabled list a couple of days ago and was inserted into the leadoff spot. While he isn't going to be the same player he once was, he still gives the O's a spark plug at the top of the order and is an upgrade at the position. Today's starter for Baltimore is Tommy Hunter. The 25-year old right-hander has had an up and down season, but he had a very encouraging start last time out against the Phillies. He went seven innings in that start allowing only three earned runs without issuing a walk. One of the keys to success for Hunter this season has been his increased groundball rate as he's finally starting to learn that keeping the ball on the ground will reduce his home run rate, which has been a problem for him in his career. I expect another quality start for Hunter today as he goes up against the worst lineup in baseball. The Pirates have been abysmal averaging only 3.2 runs per game on the season - dead last in the major leagues. They have four regulars batting under .230 and the only player having an above average season is Andrew McCutcheon.

The Orioles will face Pittsburgh starter Erik Bedard, who they should be pretty familiar with. Bedard pitched with the Orioles for the first five years of his career before arm injuries got the best of him. Bedard has tried to rejuvenate his career in Pittsburgh and is having a decent season at 4-6 with a 3.59 ERA. However, Bedard still may be battling an injury to his back as he was removed from a game on May 9 with back spasms after only one inning. Since that start, Bedard has a 4.88 ERA and a mediocre 24-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in five starts. In his six starts prior to the injury, Bedard posted a 2.65 ERA and a 37-14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. It's not clear if he is still pitching through some pain or not, but he definitely isn't the same pitcher that he was earlier on in the season. The Orioles lineup is tough enough to face when you're on top of your game, but if you're struggling it's a very tall order. Baltimore has also hit left-handers very well this season and has won their last five games against southpaw starters. The Pirates better enjoy their 32-29 record, because I don't think they'll be above .500 for very much longer. Take the Orioles to get the sweep today as we should see another instance of the American League getting the best of the National League.

[Mr. IWS]

David Banks

Best Bet - Pitt
MLB - Tx, Stl
NBA - Mia & Under

[Mr. IWS]

Ferringo
DET -1.5 (-130) @ CHC [11:20am PDT]

OAK (+100) @ COL [12:10pm PDT]
HOU @ SF (-130) [12:45pm PDT]
PIT @ BAL (-110) [4:05pm PDT]
PHI @ MIN u9 (+100) [5:10pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

DAVID BANKS

NBA - Miami Heat & UNDER 196

The Miami Heat (58-27, 43-42 ATS) were bigger underdogs in Game 1 of this
series than they were in any game all year with LeBron James in the lineup.
Now we know why after the Oklahoma City Thunder (60-22, 46-35-1 ATS) pulled
away late. The Thunder overcame a 13-point deficit in the second quarter by
dominating the fourth quarter en route to the 105-94 triumph. They now get to
stay home for Game 2 from Chesapeake Energy Arena in Oklahoma City, OK,
which will take place on Thursday night at 9:00 ET and be televised over the
air on ABC.

The scary part from Miami's perspective is that the Thunder really didn't
play all that well over the first three quarters on Tuesday, but they then
outscored Miami 31-21 in the final quarter despite the Heat seemingly getting
a high majority of the calls from the referees. The Thunder also won despite
getting only five points from James Harden and hitting on only five
three-pointers in 17 attempts. Yet when all was said and done, Kevin Durant led the
way with 36 points and Russell Westbrook added 27 points and 11 assists in
the first ever NBA Finals game for either of that duo, and Oklahoma City
left no doubt by pulling away late despite three sloppy periods. Do not forget
about Nick Collison's work off the bench either. The stat line will show
that Collison had eight points on four of five shooting, but his biggest
contribution was the energy he brought to the floor after Oklahoma City was
looking listless throughout the first half, and that energy quickly became
contagious as the Thunder mounted their comeback. The worst news for the Heat is
that the Thunder only figure to improve if they bring that energy from the
get-go in Game 2, and do not forget that they still shot 51.9 percent from the
field while not playing at their best vs. a great Miami defense.

Keep in mind though that the Heat may have been playing with tired legs in
the fourth quarter, as they were coming off of a seven game series vs. the
Celtics and facing a fresher team. James did his part with 30 points and
Miami got some unexpected contributions from Shane Battier, who hit on four of
his six attempts from three-point land while finishing with 17 points, and
Mario Chalmers, who shot 5-of-7 from the floor including two three-pointers
for 12 points. However, the other parts of the Big Three were relatively
quiet. Dwayne Wade had 19 points but he shot just 7-of-19 from the floor, while
Chris Bosh scored only 10 after looking like his old self vs. Boston in Game
7. Now the Heat also figure to play better in Game 2, especially on the
defensive end. But will it be enough to beat Oklahoma City in its own building?

If the Heat pull that off, they would be the first team in the playoffs to
do so as the Thunder are a perfect 9-0 straight up at home this post-season.
OKC is also on a 5-0 run against the spread, with four of those games being
at home and the other one being the pivotal Game 5 at San Antonio, which to
this point is still probably the biggest win in the history of the Thunder
franchise since moving to Oklahoma from Seattle. Also noteworthy is the fact
that the Thunder are now 22-7 against the spread in their last 29 games vs.
Eastern Conference teams.

Pick: Under 196