6-22-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

Chicago +135 over ARIZONA

Joe Saunders saw his ERA double and his record even out to .500 when the Cardinals pasted him for three jacks and six earned runs in 3.1 innings on May 7. Saunders is now 4-5 with a 3.44 ERA but there are trusting signs that suggest his surface stats have further to fall. His xERA is 4.38 and his groundball/flyball ratio is bordering on mediocrity. While it's possible that Saunders is going to put together a respectable year with fewer walks, less home runs and more strikeouts, history tells us not to expect it. He’s delivered some effective month-long stretches in the past only to follow those with disastrous ones. Saunders is the same hittable pitcher that he’s been for years. Jeff Samardzija has 78 K’s and 28 walks in 78 innings. His xERA of 3.38 is much lower than his actual ERA of 4.04. Samardzija's 94.7 mph fastball is second in velocity in the majors just behind Stephen Strasburg. Both of these teams are coming off series wins (Cubs v White Sox, D-Backs v M’s) and both are 5-5 over their past 10 so current form favors neither. However, the pitching matchup favors the Cubbies and the tag adds to their appeal. Play: Chicago +135 (Risking 2 units).

St. Louis +105 over KANSAS CITY

When we think of the Royals we think of a team with decent bats but very little pitching so it might surprise you to learn that the Royals are ranked 25th in the majors in runs scored, 27th in home runs and 20th in OPS. Oddly, when playing at home, their rankings are even worse. The Cardinals road OPS of .749 is the best in the majors and they’ll face Vin Mazzaro, a guy that pitches to contact and offers little. Mazzaro’s ERA of 2.57 has been achieved in just 21 innings so a dramatic correction is forthcoming. He’s walked nine batters while striking out 13. His unsustainable 85% strand rate has helped to mask his deficiencies, which are about to get exposed very soon. Joe Kelly makes just his third start after his first two were somewhat shaky. The surface stats are good (2.89 ERA) but Kelly allowed 14 hits in 9.1 innings and didn’t make it past the fifth in either. However, he only allowed three runs because he has the ability to strike people out and now that he has his feet wet, we expect a better performance here. He has a nasty sinker, outstanding control and a 91-96 MPH fastball. Nothing favors the Royals here, not their bats, not home field, not their pen and not the starters. Play: St. Louis +105 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +112 over OAKLAND

This line is simply ridiculous. Jarrod Parker favored over Tim Lincecum is completely incorrect and we plan on taking full advantage. While Lincecum’s struggles are well documented, his ERA of 6.19 is not indicative of his true skill level. In 77 innings, he’s walked 41 but we’re seeing an improvement there, as he’s walked just three in his last two road games covering 12 frames. His strand rate of 60% is out of whack too. Lincecum has an elite strikeout rate (83 in 77 IP) and faces an A’s team with the league’s worst batting average of .225. Current Oakland batters have a BA of .214 in 98 career AB’s against Lincecum. Jarrod Parker’s walk totals are just as poor with 30 walks issued in 61 frames. The difference is that Parker has a misleading 2.82 ERA but an xERA of 4.36 strongly suggests those walks are going to eventually catch up to him. Parker has upside but too much hard contact (line-drive rate of 27%) and too many walks indicate his stats are bound for regression. Play: San Francisco +112 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Friday

100* Play Texas (-200) over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:10 PM EST

Colorado has lost 11 of the last 12 games vs. AL West Division Opponents and they have also lost 8 consecutive games as an underdog of +175 to +250. Colorado has lost 23 of the last 32 games after having lost four or five of the last six games and they have lost 13 of the last 21 games when the total posted is 10 runs or higher.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

50* Play Cincinnati (-175) over Minnesota (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Boston (-175) over Atlanta (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Chase Diamond

50 Dime Miami Marlins -119

[Mr. IWS]

MMA Professor - UFC Picks

Friday night:

Clay Guida +285 over Gray Maynard

Ross Pearson -185 over Cub Swanson

Saturday 6/23

Rich Frankllin -150 over Wanderlei Silva

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Over 9.5 Twins/Reds
50* Indians -130

[Mr. IWS]

401 K Sports
6-4 Run last 2 days


2** Washington +110 over Baltimore(7pm)
Orioles are coming back to earth. Their offense deserted them on the last road trip, scoring 12 runs in 6 games. With Zimmerman going tonight and his 1.1 WHIP, I can see the funk continuing. Zimm has been stellar on the road with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. He has 3 quality starts in 3 appearances vs the O's The nats put a ton of runners on base vs TB and were missing the clutch hit. Now that the Yankee hangover is gone, it is time to get the feel back. 2 of 3 win in TB and now they will contribute to the Oriole slide by winning tonight.


2** Detroit/Pittsburgh under 7.5 (-110)(7pm) some -105's around some -115's too so shop for the good juice if you can. Fister picked up where he left off last year in his 1st start off the DL last time out. He has had 1 bad start in a Tigers uniform in 21 starts. Only Dickey is hotter than AJ Burnett right now. The 1st team to 3 wins this game I think. Back to facing a good pitching staff so back to the 3-1 4-2 type of games.



1* Cleveland -130 over Houston(8pm)
1* Cleveland -1.5 runs +130 over Houston - Ubaldo has a 3-0 record vs Houston with a 2.45 ERA and an outstanding WHIP of 0.71. The Astro hitters are a combined .158 off Jimenenez. If that isn't good enough, why not just fade Harrell every time out. 23 ER in 23 IP in his L4 starts. 5.70 ERA over all yet he has a winning record thanks to a offense that is pretty good but is struggling right now. The Astros have scored 3 runs or less in 7 of 9 games.



1* Arizona -150 over Chi Cubs(9:30pm)
1* Ariz -1.5 runs +130 over Cubs - The Cubs have the worst BA vs lefties in the majors at .208. This team is playing like they just can't wait to be traded. The D-backs got their offense untracked last week scoring 30 runs in the 3 game seattle series. Samardjiza isn't going deep enough into games to keep this game close with that bad Cub pen.



2** Oakland -115 over San Fran(10pm) - Who would have ever thought you would have seen Lincecum as an underdog to a rookie pitcher on a losing team. It is the case here and it is well deserved. Parker has been fantastic especially at home where he has a 1.59 ERA. Oakland right now has won 8 of 9 and has allowed only 12 runs in their L7 games. SF has lost 4 of 5 and Lincecum just hasn't been good at all TY. I got away from fading him for a couple of starts and I need to get back to it.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

3*MLB *Friday Night Feast*

Arizona Diamondbacks

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog Sports

Game: Toronto at Miami (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Toronto +110 (moneyline)

The Miami Marlins thought they had everything in place this season to win a World Series Championship. They opened a new stadium, revamped their pitching, and added a few hitters to bolster the attack. None of it has worked so far as they are a below .500 team at home and overall, and are currently playing their worst baseball of the season at 2-13 over their last 15 games. They have given up 101 runs over the 15-game stretch or nearly 7 per contest, while they have not produced more than 5 in any of the 15 games. It’s needless to say things have been bad all around. The Jays start Ricky Romero and he always manages to keep them in games, as the Jays stand at 21-6 in his last 27 starts, including 9-1 vs. a team with a losing record on the season. The Marlins are now just 1-10 in their last 11 vs. a winning team, and have been destroyed by the AL East where they are 2-14 in their last 16. Play on Toronto.

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO

CLE (-130) @ HOU [5:05pm PDT]

SF @ OAK (-115) [7:05pm PDT]

COL @ TEX -1.5 (-105) [5:05pm PDT]

LAD @ LAA (-145) [7:05pm PDT]

DET (-110) @ PIT [4:05pm PDT]

TB (+125) @ PHI [4:05pm PDT]

MIN @ CIN -1.5 (+110) [4:10pm PDT]

CHC @ ARI (-155) [6:40pm PDT]

SEA (+105) @ SD [7:05pm PDT]

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

TOP PLAYS

4 UNIT PLAY

Boston/ Atlanta Over 10.5: Thanks to an injury to Brandon Beachy, Jair Jurrgens has been recalled and he should allow the Sox to put up some big numbers here. Jair was sent down to the minors after 4 starts that saw him go 0-2 with a 9.37 ERA, but he also struggled down in the minors as well, going 3-4 with a 5.18 ERA in his 10 starts down there. Now he comes back to the major league level to face a Boston offense that is rolling. Not good for Jair, but good for us. Boston has scored 35 runs in their last 4 games, while they have hit .306 and have scored 7 rpg in their last 7 games overall. At home Boston has hit .271 and put up 5.4 rpg. Boston's pitching has suffered some at home as they have gotten a 5.18 ERA from their starters at home this year and Jon Lester has been a big contributor to that as he has a 5.98 ERA in his 7 home starts. As a team, Boston has allowed 5.06 rpg at home, but 6.86 rpg in Lester's home starts and those home starts have averaged 11.4 rpg. The Braves offense had been in a terrible slump but then on Wednesday they pounded out 5 HR's and put 10 runs on the board. This is still a team that has put up 4.6 rpg on the road and they should be able to get to Lester for a bunch in this one. Even if the Braves get just 4 runs in this one, their is no way the Sox don't get at least 7 combined vs Jair and a bullpen that has a 5.35 ERA in it's last 10 games. the Humidity might not be there for this one, but it sghould still be a fun game with at least 13 runs put up.

3 UNIT PLAYS

POWER ANGLE PLAY

ARIZONA -143 over Chicago (NL): Not a good spot for the Cubs as they have been terrible on the road when facing a left hander.They are now 5-22 in their last 27 road games vs a lefty starter, including 1-9 this year. They have hit lefties at a .198 clip and have scored just 2.19 rp/9 off of them on the road. They do get to face a lefty, who has struggled some at home this year. Joe Saunders is just 3-4 with a high 5.01 ERA at home on the year, but he has pitched very well in his last 2 home starts, going 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Overall he has a nice 2.89 ERA in his last 3 starts and should hold down the Cubs in this one. Offensively the D-Backs have exploded as they are off a home series with the Mariners and put 30 runs on the board in the 3 game set. For the year the D-Backs have hit .276 and scored 5.09 rpg at home. Jeff Samardzija has been okay for the Cubs, with a 5-5 mark and a 4.04 ERA, including 2-3 with a 6.00 ERA on the road. His road ERA is inflated a bit due rto his last road start in which he allowed 8 ER's in 3.2 innings at Minnesota. For the most part he has pitched well on the rpoad, but still the Cubs can't hit lefties on the road, Saunders is starting pitch well at home and Chicago is also off a tough series with their cross town rival. A lot going against Chicago in this one and that should have the D-Back taking game one of this series and we get a booster shot from the Angle below. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Since 2008, the D-Backs are 24-4 as a home favorite of 140 or more in the first game of a home series.

BALTIMORE -120 over Washington: The Orioles are off a tough series with the Mets, in which they were swept and shutout in 2 of those games, but they are at home for this one where they have played well this year. The O's are 19-14 at home and have averaged 5.03 rpg at Camden Yards this year. In their last 6 games here they have gone 5-1 and have averaged 7.3 rpg in those games. In their last 3 at home they took on a Pittsburgh staff that has been very good this year, yet the O's tagged Pitt for 27 runs in the 3 games. Tonight they take on another tough staff in the Nats, that has allowed just 3.3 rpg on the year, but in their last 6 they have given up almost a rpg more (4.2). Jordan Zimmerman is 3-5 with a 2.92 ERA, but he comes in struggling with an 0-2 mark and a 3.89 ERA in his last 6 starts. For the O's Jason Hammel has not struggled at all this year. He is 7-2 with a 2.87 ERA overall, while at home he is a perfect 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA. The O's are 10-3 overall in his starts and 4-1 in his home starts and he should be able to hold down a Nats offense that has struggled for most of the year, averaging just 3.9 rpg. Washington has lost 4 of their last 6 games, while Baltimore looks to get back on track after a horrible series in New York. O's take game 1 here.

Oakland/ San Francisco Over 7: Tim Lincecum has struggled all year and i expect that to continue here, especially vs an Oakland offense that has taken off of late. Tim has a 6.19 ERA overall, with his starts averaging 9.4 rpg, while on the road he has an 8.14 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, with his road starts averaging 12 rpg. The A's offense has been rolling of late as they have averaged 6 rpg in their last 9 games and while they do average just 3.6 rpg at home, they have put up 5.2 rpg in Jarod Parker's home starts on the year. Jarod has been solid at home, with a 1.59 ERA and he has allowed 0 ER's in 3 of his last 4 starts, but he was tagged for 6 ER's in just 2 innings in an earlier matchup vs the Giants and San Fran is a team that hits much better on the road than at home. At home the Giants hit .255 and score 3.3 rpg, but on the road they have hit .269 and put up 4.6 rpg. The Giants should be good for at least 3 in this one, while the A's should put up at least 4 of their own vs a struggling Tim. I really don't see a push here as I expect at least 9 runs in this one, but still a push is better than a loss and at the very least i expect 7 runs to be put up.

OTHER PLAYS

2 UNIT PLAYS

CINCINNATI -1.5 (+105) over Minnesota

NY Yanks -135 over NY METS: Google News Play

1 UNIT PLAYS

Cleveland -135 over HOUSTON

Seattle/ San Diego Under 6

4-2 overall yesterday and 2-0 in my top plays. I have a solid run of 16-5 in my last 21 top play and a run of 21-11 in all plays rated 2 units or higher.

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner:
500* MLB Cardinals even
100* MLB Over 9.5 Reds/Twins
50* MLB Indians -130