6-24-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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Run for your money: Two surprisingly-profitable MLB runline teams

Whoever coined the phrase "close but no cigar" obviously had never heard of MLB runline betting.

There are a lot of the teams at the top of the standings who haven’t generated much of a runline return for their supporters, thanks to the chalk they see day in and day out.

Then there are the clubs that end up on the wrong end of the outright decision a lot, but keep the score close enough most days and throw in the odd blowout win to have their bettors lighting victory cigars with crisp Benjamins, straight from the betting window.

Here are two of those teams, though you might want to tread carefully with them for the next little while.

Stats current through Friday’s action and check out our full runline standings here.

Chicago White Sox: 36-34 outright

42-28 on the runline yielding 19.30 units

The White Sox went into Friday’s game against Milwaukee in a bit of a tailspin. After riding a surge to take the AL Central lead, they dropped six of their last eight and sat a half game back of the division-leading Cleveland Indians.

Offense has been the main issue during the skid. Chicago averages 4.61 runs per game (seventh in the bigs) but was held to three or fewer runs six times since beating St. Louis 6-1 back on June 12. The White Sox are also four games below .500 in their own park.

“You go through ups and downs,’’ second baseman Gordon Beckham told reporters. “When you’re cold, you have to grind it out and be warm enough to help the team win. We’ve had some guys who at the wrong time aren’t clicking. We don’t have one guy that’s tearing it up right now.’’

Toronto Blue Jays: 37-34 outright

41-30 on the runline yielding 13.50 units

Toronto had managed to put together four wins in its last six ahead of Friday’s date with the Marlins despite major concerns with the club’s pitching staff. At this point, the club doesn’t have much of an idea who its fourth and fifth starters are after Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil and Henderson Alvarez.

That had some people wondering if Toronto manager John Farrell might make like the Colorado Rockies and at least give a four-man rotation a try.

"I can see where that can make a lot of sense," Farrell told reporters. "We haven't decided to go that route yet. We'll stay with the traditional five-man rotation because we feel like with off days, our starters are going to need that extra day at given points.”

Those starters are also going to need the bats to keep booming if Jays runline bettors have a hope moving forward. Toronto ranks third in the bigs averaging 4.97 runs per game and sits second with 104 homers.

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Sunday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants (9-2, 2.34 ERA)

Cain followed his perfect game with an OK showing, giving up three runs over five innings against the Angels. The Giants righty has won eight straight starts and has allowed one or fewer runs in five of those outings.

R.A. Dickey, New York Mets (11-1, 2.00 ERA)

Dickey hasn’t tasted defeat since April 18 and has gone 9-0 in his last 11 starts. The knuckleballer has been even more impressive over his last six trips to the bump, going 6-0 with a 0.18 ERA, and hasn’t allowed an earned run over the last 42 2/3 innings - the best showing from a Mets pitcher since Dwight Gooden back in 1985.

Slumping

Mark Buehrle, Miami Marlins (5-8, 3.82 ERA)

The Marlins’ big offseason acquisition isn’t living up to that contract, losing four straight starts heading into Sunday. Buehrle was beat up bad in his last outing, giving up six earned runs – including three home runs – to the Red Sox.

Hector Noesi, Seattle Mariners (2-8, 5.69 ERA)

The shine is coming off the M’s rookie starter. Noesi has dropped back-to-back starts and hasn’t won a game in eight straight appearances, dating back to May 6. The righty was hit for five runs over six innings in his latest effort, but he did manage to keep the ball in the park for the first time in five starts.

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Sunday Night Baseball: Yankees at Mets
By Steve Merril

New York Yankees at New York Mets (+100, 7)

The final game of interleague play this season takes place Sunday night and features two heated rivals and two excellent pitchers.

THE THING

Mets starter R.A. Dickey has been reborn thanks to the knuckleball. Dickey was a first-round draft pick by the Texas Rangers in 1996, but took five years to reach the major leagues in 2001. He was a mediocre starter at best with a mid-80's fastball and an average curveball. However, Dickey did have a forkball pitch which he called "The Thing" which was basically a hard knuckleball.

At the beginning of the 2006 season, the Rangers gave him a chance to try his knuckleball, but after giving up six home runs in his first and only start, it looked like Dickey's career was over. He bounced around the minor leagues for the next two years and then pitched with the Mariners and Twins before landing in New York in 2010.

Dickey is now 37 years old and is having his best season ever. He started with a 2.84 ERA in 2009 with the Mets and then regressed a bit with a 3.28 ERA last season.

However, the right-hander has been amazing this season with a 2.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in 14 starts with a 103/21 strikeout/walk ratio. Dickey is already just one strikeout shy (in 14 starts) of the 104 total strikeouts he had in the entire 2010 season (26 starts).

Dickey's won/loss record has made the biggest improvement, going 11-1 this season compared to just 19-22 in all decisions during his first two years with the Mets.

SLOW STARTER

Unlike Dickey, C.C. Sabathia has been a model of consistency since he debuted in 2001. Sabathia has shown no signs of slowing down and actually set a career high with 230 strikeouts last season and already has an excellent 102/27 strikeout/walk ratio this year.

He does have his weakest earned run average (3.55 ERA) since the 2008 season (3.83 ERA), but mainly due to a slow start in April when he allowed nine runs in just 12 innings during his first two appearances. In fact, the left-hander allowed at least four runs or more in three of his first four starts in April, but has since allowed three runs or less in eight of his past 10 outings.

HITTERS TO WATCH

David Wright 2-9 vs. Sabathia
Ike Davis 3-6 vs. Sabathia

Curtis Granderson 3-15 vs. Dickey
Derek Jeter 2-10 vs. Dickey
Alex Rodriguez 6-13 vs. Dickey

TEAM TRENDS

Mets are 23-9 SU in Dickeys last 32 starts (8-0 L8 home starts)
Mets are 37-14 OVER vs. left-handed starter

Yankees are 39-18 SU on Sunday
Yankees are 54-21 SU in Sabathia's last 75 starts

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Sunday's betting tips: Buchholz sick, BoSox juggle rotation

Weather watch

The finale of the Subway Series could get a visit from some thundershowers Sunday night. The forecast for the Big Apple is calling for thunder and lightning as well as a 30 percent chance of showers.

Who’s hot?

Texas Rangers – Heading into Saturday’s slate, the Rangers have won seven in a row and finish a three-game interleague set with the Colorado Rockies at home Sunday.

Seattle Storm – Seattle has won three in a row heading into Sunday’s home contest against the Washington Mystics. The Storm have covered the spread in all three wins following a dismal 1-7 SU start (2-6 ATS) to the season.

Who’s not?

Miami Marlins – The Marlins have dropped six straight outings, including a 7-1 thrashing at the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays Saturday. Miami has been outscored 19-6 in the first two games of its three-game set with Toronto.

England – The English have just one win over Italy in their last nine meetings. England is 6-9-7 all-time versus the Azzurri.

Key stat

42 2/3 – Mets starter R.A. Dickey, who gets the call against the Yankees Sunday, hasn’t allowed an earned run in 42 2/3 innings – the longest such streak for a Mets hurler since Dwight Gooden back in 1985.

Injury that shouldn’t be overlooked

Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox – Buchholz was one of the hottest pitchers in baseball but will miss Sunday’s start against the Atlanta Braves due to illness. As of Saturday afternoon, Boston has yet to announce a replacement starter. Scott Atchison or Clayton Mortensen may be able to take on some innings while Triple-A arms Doug Mathis and Aaron Cook could also get the call.

Game of the day

England (+180) vs. Italy (+180, Draw +200)

Notable quotable

"Whether I had won in Paris or lost like I did in the first round, I am always extremely motivated. If anything, you know, I think losing makes me even more motivated." – Serena Williams, who among the favorites (+311) to win Wimbledon.

Notes and tips

-- The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series throws a swerve – literally – at drivers this week with the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at road course Sonoma. Drivers will be asked to turn left, a big change from oval-track racing. Road-course specialist like Juan Pablo Montoya (+1,500) Marcos Ambrose (+200) and A.J. Allmendinger (+7,500) all hold extra value.

-- One of the WNBA’s best rivalries is renewed when the San Antonio Silver Stars visit the Los Angeles Sparks Sunday. San Antonio has dominated this Western Conference clash in recent years, going 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven meetings with Los Angeles.

-- Angels Stadium might as well be on the moon – rather than down the freeway – when it comes to the Dodgers. Heading into Saturday’s Game 2 versus the Angels, the Dodgers are just 8-22 in their last 30 games in Anaheim. They took an 8-5 loss there Friday.

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MLB

AL teams were 5-9 Saturday, they're 131-106 against NL teams in interleague play this season, 11-16 this weekend, with one day to go.

Remember there are DHs in games in American League parks, no DHs in National League parks. It doesn't seem to affect totals either way.

Hot pitchers
-- Miley is 2-1, 1.19 in his last three starts.
-- Price is 3-1, 3.73 in his last five starts.
-- Leake is 3-0, 3.35 in his last seven starts.
-- Verlander is 2-0, 3.00 in his last three starts.
-- Minor is 1-1, 2.95 in his last three starts.
-- Lynn is 4-2, 3.75 in his last six starts.
-- Quintana has a 1.57 RA in his last four starts.
-- McCarthy is 3-0, 1.35 in three starts since coming off the DL. Cain is 5-0, 2.27 in his last five starts.
-- Richards is 2-0, 1.35 in three starts this season.
-- Harrison is 6-0, 1.43 in his last six starts.
-- Dickey is 6-0, 0.37 in his last six starts. Sabathia is 4-1, 3.89 in his last five starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Garza is 1-4, 7.03 in his last six starts.
-- Lee is 0-2, 4.87 in his last six starts. Hamels is 2-2, 6.07 in his last four starts. Cobb is 1-3, 4.91 in his last four starts,
-- Diamond is 0-2, 6.35 in his last couple starts.
-- Arrieta is 1-5, 7.99 in his last six starts. Detwiler is 1-2, 7.53 in his last four starts.
-- Cook allowed seven runs in 2.2 IP in his only start this season.
-- Correia is 2-6, 5.11 in his last ten starts.
-- Buehrle is 0-4, 5.48 in his last four starts. Chavez allowed four runs in his 2.2 IP in his first '12 start.
-- Happ is 1-4, 6.59 in his last five starts. Lowe is 1-4, 8.13 in his last six outings.
-- JSanchez is 0-3, 6.29 in his last seven starts.
-- Fiers is 1-2, 4.50 in his last three starts.
-- Harang is 1-1, 4.32 in his last three starts.
-- Volquez is 1-2, 7.02 in his last three starts. Noesi is 0-5, 5.51 in his last eight outings.
-- White is 0-2, 8.56 in his last three starts.

Hot Teams
-- Arizona won nine of its last ten home games.
-- Blue Jays won six of their last eight games.
-- Nationals won 15 of their last 21 road games.
-- Pittsburgh won 12 of its last 14 home games.
-- Mets won four of their last five games.
-- Braves won three of their last four games. Red Sox won eight of their last ten games.
-- Indians won four of their last five games.
-- Rangers won six of their last seven games, scoring 47 runs.
-- Brewers are 5-3 in their last eight games.
-- St Louis won three of its last four games. Royals won seven of their last eleven games, but lost last two.
-- San Francisco is 6-4 in its last ten road games. A's won eight of their last eleven games, but lost last two.
-- Angels won five of their last seven games.

Cold Teams
-- Cubs lost 18 of their last 22 road games.
-- Baltimore lost four of its last five games, scoring six runs.
-- Tigers lost three of their last four games.
-- Phillies lost 11 of their last 16 home games. Tampa Bay lost seven of its last ten games.
-- Miami lost 15 of its last 17 games.
-- Twins lost seven of their last ten games. Cincinnati lost four of its last five games.
-- Bronx Bombers lost three of their last four games.
-- Houston lost six of its last eight games.
-- Rockies lost 13 of their last 16 games.
-- White Sox lost seven of their last ten games.
-- Mariners lost nine of their last thirteen games. San Diego lost six of its last eight games.
-- Dodgers lost five of their last seven games.

Totals
-- Six of last eight Miley starts stayed under total.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Washington games.
-- Over in 10-5 in Detroit's last fifteen road games.
-- Over is 20-7 in Philly's last 27 games.
-- Five of last six Toronto road games went over the total.
-- Six of last seven games at Citi Field stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last 14 Cincinnati home games went over the total.
-- Under is 10-4-1 in Atlanta's last fifteen road games.
-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Cleveland road games.
-- Over is 9-4-1 in last fourteen Texas home games.
-- Six of last eight Milwaukee road games stayed under.
-- 10 of last 14 St Louis games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last thirteen Seattle road games went over the total.
-- 13 of Giants' last 17 road games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Dodger games stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- Chi-Az-- Four of last five Barry games went over the total.
-- Tor-Mia-- Road team won seven of eight LBarrett games.
-- StL-KC-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven West games.
-- Col-Tex-- Over is 5-2-1 in Bell's last eight games behind plate.
-- TB-Phil-- Five of last six Carapazza games stayed under total; Favorites won Hoye's last five games behind the plate.
-- Cle-Hst-- Baker is a rookie umpire; no info on him. Pretty sure this is his first big league game behind the plate.
-- Det-Pitt-- Over is 3-1-1 in Foster's last five games.
-- Min-Cin-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Michlinski games.
-- NY-NY-- Under is 8-4-1 in last thirteen Runge games; he's already worked plate for two no-hitters this season.
-- Atl-Bos-- Road team won eight of last nine Porter games, with four of his last five staying under total.
-- Wsh-Balt-- This is Rackley's first game behind plate this year; over was 7-4 in 11 games he worked last season.
-- LA-LA-- Under is 8-3-2 in Bucknor games this season.
-- Mil-Chi-- Home team won five of six Campos games this season.
-- SF-A's-- Road team won seven of last nine Gorman games.
-- Sea-SD-- Home side won ten of last twelve Carlson games.

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees Saturday.

Sunday it’s the Yankees. The deficit is 450 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo did some top-notch janitorial work yesterday, making a clean sweep with the Blue Jays and Nationals to lower the accounts payable to 1,275 bunnings.

Today, Mr. Aitch will get his frenzy on with the foursome of Verlander, Quintana (that guy can pitch, man), Cain and Sabathia (over Bill Maher’s Mets) -- 10 units apiece.

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Today's MLB Picks

Milwaukee at Chicago White Sox

The Brewers look to bounce back from yesterday's 8-6 loss and take advantage of a White Sox team that is 0-7 in its last 7 games following a win. Milwaukee is the pick (+115) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JUNE 24 Time Posted: 8:00 a.m. EST

Game 901-902: Chicago Cubs at Arizona (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Garza) 15.791; Arizona (Miley) 15.333 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1/2; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Arizona (-160); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+140); Over

Game 903-904: NY Yankees at NY Mets (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 16.689; NY Mets (Dickey) 17.761 Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 6 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-120); 7 Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+100); Under

Game 905-906: Toronto at Miami (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Chavez) 15.927; Miami (Buehrle) 16.468 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Miami (-140); 9 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-140); Under

Game 907-908: Minnesota at Cincinnati (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Diamond) 15.493; Cincinnati (Leake) 15.150 Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-165); 9 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+145); Over

Game 909-910: Detroit at Pittsburgh (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 15.499; Pittsburgh (Correia) 14.823 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Detroit (-180); 7 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-180); Over

Game 911-912: Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (1:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 13.938; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.413 Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 913-914: Washington at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Detwiler) 16.143; Baltimore (Arrieta) 15.566 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Baltimore (-120); 9 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Under

Game 915-916: Atlanta at Boston (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Minor) 16.054; Boston (Cook) 16.916 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 11 Vegas Line: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Cleveland at Houston (2:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Lowe) 15.294; Houston (Happ) 14.221 Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Houston (-115); 9 Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-105); Under

Game 919-920: St. Louis at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Lynn) 13.609; Kansas City (Sanchez) 13.946 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+130); Over

Game 921-922: Milwaukee at Chicago White Sox (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Fiers) 16.258; White Sox (Quintana) 15.360 Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1; 8 Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-135); 9 Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+115); Under

Game 923-924: LA Dodgers at LA Angels (3:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Harang) 15.729; LA Angels (Richards) 16.119 Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-160); 7 Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-160); Under

Game 925-926: San Francisco at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Cain) 14.966; Oakland (Griffin) 15.609 Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1/2; 5 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-130); 6 Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+110); Under

Game 927-928: Seattle at San Diego (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Noesi) 14.886; San Diego (Volquez) 14.176 Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: San Diego (-130); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Seattle (+110); Over

Game 929-930: Colorado at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (White) 14.756; Texas (Harrison) 15.682 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 12 Vegas Line: Texas (-250); 11 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-250); Over

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Paul Leiner

100* Astros -120

50* Yankees -110

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Wunderdog (3-6-1)(-6*) Sat. Season (205-260-6) (-94.1*)

Game: Minnesota at Cincinnati (1:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Minnesota +140 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.8)
Pick: 2 units on Game Total OVER 9 -110 (risk 2 to win 1.8)

The Twins took the opener in this series, but were over-matched in game two by Johny Cueto as they failed to push a run across. They should have a lot more success today vs. Mike Leake who is 2-5 with a 4.70 ERA on the season. Leake has found the going much tougher this year, now that the league has become familiar with him, and he has allowed ten more hits than innings pitched. Scott Diamond appears to be another in a line of top of the rotation lefthanders the Twins have developed. Diamond is 5-3 with a 2.57 ERA. The Twins offense has been a run better than they were early in the season and should score plenty here. In addition, this team has rebounded from a loss to take seven of their last ten after suffering a setback in their last game. The Reds are now just 3-7 in their last ten interleague games vs. a losing team and nine of their last 12 at home have topped the total vs. a team with a losing road record. Each of Leake's last four home starts have topped the total. Twins have played to a 16-7-2 mark to the OVER in their last 25 in interleague play and have taken four of the last five from the Reds. Play on Minnesota and the OVER.

Game: St. Louis at Kansas City (2:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on Kansas City +130 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 2.6)

The St. Louis Cardinals have been a mediocre team this season on the heels of their World Series win last fall. Lance Lynn has surprisingly been the ace of the staff but failed to get into the sixth inning in his last outing allowing five runs on nine hits. The Royals horrific start has them appearing to be an ugly team, but since May 8th, this team has bounced back and has played excellent baseball posting a 22-19 record. Lynn has been good but the Cards have not in their last five vs. a lefthanded starter at 1-4. The Royals have been good of late on the back end of a series winning six of their last eight in game three. Play on Kansas City in this one.

Game: Seattle at San Diego (4:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: 2 units on San Diego -130 (moneyline) (risk 2 to win 1.5)

San Diego scored in the first inning off Felix Hernandez last night, but that was all they could manage in a 5-1 loss. Today they have the pitching edge behind Edinson Volquez. Volquez has had a couple horrible starts, but for the most part he has pitched very well with 11 of his 15 starts resulting in three runs or less. He shutdown the soft hitting Mariners on the road this season allowing one run in 6.2 innings of work, on just four hits. Former Yankee Hector Noesi is not ready for the big leagues as of yet and has strufggled to a 2-8 mark and a 5.69 ERA. Noesi has allowed 15 HR's in just 80 innings of work. He has been a train wreck on the road with an 0-4 record and an 8.06 ERA. Nothing scary about the M's 55-120 mark in their last 175 as a road dog. The Pod's don't win much but when they smell a win as a -110 to -150 favorite as they have delivered the cash in just eight of their last 11. Play on San Diego.

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EZWINNERS

5* New York Yankees -112
3* Toronto Blue Jays +126
3* Pittsburgh Pirates +178
3* Minnesota Twins +140
3* Kansas City Royals +133
3* Los Angeles Dodgers +160
3* Chicago Cubs +159
3* Colorado Rockies +225

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Bill Marzano

Mets +104

[Dancin' Shoes]

LEGIT PICKS

Sunday 6/24/12 Plays...

5* ROCKIES/RANGERS (UNDER)

---SURGEON GENERAL'S WARNING: Practicing Money Management & Shopping Lines Can Lead to Long Term Success--