7-1-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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MLB capping talk: July's best and worst starting pitchers
By Marc Lawrence

Firecrackers and the MLB All-Star Game signal the month of July. It also means the start of the second half of the MLB campaign. The key to each team’s fortune lies on the pitching staff. Can they sustain or will they fold like a deck of cards?

Listed below are hurlers that have enjoyed a 2-to-1 or better success ratio in team starts the last three seasons during the month of July. On the flip side, we’ve also listed pitchers that struggle in July team starts, winning 33 percent or less of their efforts. To qualify pitchers must have made a minimum of 10 starts, with at least one start each July over the last three years.

GOOD MONTH PITCHERS:

Josh Beckett • 10-2

Beckett returns after going on the disabled listed on June 11th with shoulder inflammation. The Red Sox right-hander’s season has mirrored that of his team. Sometimes brilliant, sometimes dreadful and sometimes injured.

If Boston is going to secure a wild card spot and fight for the AL East lead, they will need the Beckett of old starting this month, with a sharp breaking pitches complimented by spotting the fastball on the corners.

Mark Buehrle • 12-4

The Miami left-hander has gotten a lot heat for his record, but the numbers tell a different story. Buehrle leads Marlins starting pitchers in almost every positive category and his peripheral numbers compare almost exactly with how he pitched in Chicago.

What has hurt Buehrle more than anything is a lack of run support. The way he holds down lefty hitters (.215 batting average), if the Miami bats start to score runs, July should be terrific like usual for the Missouri native.

A.J. Burnett • 10-5

Some people are just not made for the Big Apple and quite possibly, Burnett is one of those types. After three undistinguished seasons with the Yankees, A.J. is having a career year with Pittsburgh. Maybe it’s the cool necklace the 35-year old veteran is wearing, but his batting average allowed and WHIP numbers are his best since he was a Blue Jay in 2007. More than anything, Burnett has regained his confidence and he loves PNC Park, where he has a smokin’ 1.11 ERA.

Matt Cain • 11-5

The San Francisco pitcher signed a large contract earlier this year and is making the front office look like it made a wise decision. Cain is on pace to shatter his career win total of 14 in 2009 and as July starts, opposing batters are below the Mendoza Line at .195 (batting average) against. Though his velocity is the same, he’s averaging a strikeout an inning, which is his highest mark as a major-leaguer.

Cole Hamels • 12-5

As bad as Philadelphia has been this season, just think where they would be without Cole Hamels. The port-sider has been remarkably consistent for a Phillies offense that has yo-yo tendencies. Hamels is already two-thirds of the way to his career-high in wins of 15 and having survived June (ordinarily his worst month), he and the Phillies should make a move the next 31 days.

Josh Johnson • 11-3

It has been coming together for the 6-foot-7 Johnson, whose made five consecutive quality starts and is 4-2 with a nifty 2.56 ERA and a 51/17 KW ratio since May 4. After finding a lot of bats to start the year, the hard-throwing Johnson has been able to spot his fastball low in the zone with movement and his normally hard slider has the late-breaking action once again.

Jair Jurrjens • 12-4

After a horrible start to the season, Jurrjens returned from a trip to Triple-A, pitching like the same Braves pitcher from the prior four seasons. Jurrjens' velocity has been down since he suffered a right knee injury in 2010 and his stint in the minor leagues has been about relearning how to pitch, regaining confidence and better utilizing his secondary pitches to throw strikes and induce ground balls. Let’s see how he fares this month.

Clayton Kershaw • 11-5

The 24-year Dallas native has not received much run support and made costly errors at the wrong times. Where this shows up for Kershaw is being taken yard, as he’s permitted 11 homers in 2012, compared to 15 all last season.

Tim Lincecum • 11-5

One of the biggest mysteries of the season has been the Giants two-time Cy Young winner. He went 10 starts without a victory (0-6), putting together a ridiculous 6.23 ERA. There have been more theories as to what Lincecum’s problems have been than an Arthur Conan Doyle book. The fact is he’s made mistakes in the zone that have been hit in the air more than in the past, which suggests less sink on his pitches.

CC Sabathia • 12-5

The Yankees ace has a groin strain and is on the DL. He is presumed to return after the All-Star break and build on another typical Sabathia season.

Jered Weaver • 12-6

The only heavenly aspect of the Angels sickly start of the season was their No.1 pitcher, Jered Weaver. Though right-handed hitters are only batting .236 against Weaver, left-hand batters are a feeble .169 against his tosses. At the Big A in Anaheim, his ERA is an insane 0.70 this season.

BAD MONTH PITCHERS:

Livan Hernandez • 5-11

Hernandez made 18 relief appearances for Atlanta this season and was picked up by Milwaukee last month, being another pitching staff leaking oil because of injuries. If the Brewers are so desperate they have to start the Cuban native at this point of his 16-year career, an expected result will likely follow.

Jason Vargas • 3-12

The Seattle lefty slinger is a fly ball pitcher, which makes him prone to extra-base hits and balls flying over fences. This has been especially true this season, as Vargas has been taken deep 21 times, compared to 22 all of last year.

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Sunday Night Baseball: Mets at Dodgers
By Steve Merril

New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (-145, 6.5)

East Coast versus West Coast on Sunday night baseball as the Mets finish their four-game series against the Dodgers in Los Angeles.

The Weakest Link

The Mets have been successful this season by using a four-man pitching rotation of R.A. Dickey, Johan Santana, Jonathon Niese, and Dillon Gee. However, of those four starters, Gee has been by far the weakest link. The other three pitchers each have an ERA of 3.55 or better with a WHIP of 1.27 or better, while Gee has struggled with a 4.42 ERA and 1.29 WHIP.

Gee is coming off one of his worst starts of the season last Tuesday when he allowed four runs and nine hits in just five innings against the Cubs in Chicago. Overall, Gee has a 4.23 ERA and 1.36 WHIP on the road this season.

Mr. Consistency

Los Angeles starter Clayton Kershaw has been the most consistent starter in the league the past four seasons. He struggled in his rookie season in 2008 with a 4.26 ERA and only 100 strikeouts, but he has dominated ever since with a 2.79 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 2009, 2.91 ERA and 212 strikeouts in 2010, and 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts in 2011 which led to the Cy Young award.

Kershaw is once again having a fantastic season this year with a 2.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 16 starts with a 103/27 strikeout/walk ratio.

Offensive Injuries

The Dodgers have suffered a major blow to their offensive power this season as their top two power hitters, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp, are currently out of the lineup.

Ethier strained his left oblique on Wednesday and is out indefinitely, while Kemp has been out since he re-aggravated his hamstring injury on May 30th. The two players have combined for 22 home runs this season, while the rest of the team had combined for just 23 home runs all year entering Saturday's game.

Ethier and Kemp have also combined for 83 RBI as they rank first and second on the team.

Hitters vs. Starters

Matt Kemp's injury is good news for Dillon Gee as Kemp was 2-for-5 (.400) in his career versus the right-hander. Tony Gwynn is 2-for-3 (.667) versus Gee, while the rest of the Dodgers' lineup is just 2-for-10 (.200) if you remove the injured Andre Ethier (0-for-4).

The Mets' current players have struggled against Kershaw, going a combined 15-for-77 (.195). The three hitters with the most career at-bats versus Kershaw have mixed results as David Wright is just 1-for-9 (.111) and Andres Torres is only 2-for-19 (.105), while Scott Hairston is surprisingly 7-for-17 (.412) versus Kershaw.

Trends to Watch

Dodgers are 20-6 in Kershaw's last 26 home starts.

Mets are 1-5 in Gee's last 6 starts.

Mets are 19-6-1 Over last 26 road games vs. LH starter.

Kershaw is 13-4-1 Under in his last 18 home starts.

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Sunday’s streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Streaking

Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox (6-7, 4.80 ERA)

Floyd hasn’t allowed an earned run in consecutive starts, putting in 13 1/3 innings of solid pitching after a long rocky stretch. Before his recent hot streak, the big righty had allowed at least four runs in six straight starts. He tied a season-high with nine strikeouts in his latest turn, earning a 3-2 victory over the Twins.

Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals (10-3, 2.78 ERA)

Gonzalez wasn’t at his best in his last start, but still battled well enough to earn his 10th win of the season. He gave up two homers and four runs over six innings with seven strikeouts to help the Nats down the Rockies 12-5. He now has 108 strikeouts in only 90 2/3 innings pitched.

Slumping

Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles (5-9, 5.24 ERA)

Matusz has lost each of his last four starts and was absolutely terrible in his last trip to the hill. He allowed five runs, two homers, and a whopping 13 hits in just five innings during a 7-3 loss to the Angels Tuesday. Matusz owns an 8.31 ERA during the slump

Erik Bedard, Pittsburgh Pirates (4-8, 4.27 ERA)

The Pirates have lost four of Bedard’s last five starts. He is coming off a 5-4 loss to Philadelphia that saw him go six innings, allowing four runs. The lefty has also had a tough time on the road. He has lost four straight road starts.

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MLB

Hot pitchers
-- Nolasco is 2-2, 1.98 in his last four home starts. Phillies won Blanton's last four starts (3-0, 4.25), scoring 30 runs.
-- Hudson is 3-1, 2.25 in his last four starts. GGonzalez is 3-1, 4.44 in his last four outings.
-- Wood has a 2.27 RA in his last five starts.
-- Cardinals won last three Westbrook starts (2-0, 2.57).
-- Vogelsong is 3-1, 1.90 in his last six starts.
-- Kershaw has a 1.93 RA in his last two starts.

-- Masterson is 2-2, 1.86 in his last four starts.
-- Floyd is 2-0, 0.00 (13.1 IP) in his last couple starts. Hughes is 4-1, 2.67 in his last five starts.
-- BChen is 2-0, 2.13 in his last couple starts. Liriano is 1-0, 2.29 in his last three starts.
-- Wilson is 5-0, 1.68 in his last seven starts. Laffey blanked Boston for six innings in his first '12 start, at Fenway.
-- Blackley is 1-0, 2.14 in his last three starts. Darvish is 3-0, 3.13 in his last three starts.

Cold pitchers
-- Collmenter is 0-2, 8.87 in five starts this season. Gallardo is 2-2, 4.26 in his last five starts.
-- Bedard is 0-2, 7.05 in his last three starts.
-- WRodriguez has a 7.46 RA in his last six starts.
-- Pomeranz is 0-2, 5.09 in five starts this season. KWells allowed five runs in five IP in his first '12 start.
-- Arroyo is 1-3, 5.66 in his last six starts.

-- Matusz is 0-4, 8.83 in his last four starts.
-- Cobb is 1-4, 5.88 in his last five starts. Smyly is 0-2, 7.78 in his last four starts.
-- Vargas is 0-3, 7.56 in his last four starts. Doubrant is 2-2, 7.43 in his last four starts.

Hot Teams
-- Marlins won their last three games, allowing seven runs.
-- Cubs won four of their last five games.
-- Pirates won ten of their last fourteen games.
-- Padres are 7-5 in their last dozen road games.
-- Mets won their last four games, allowing three runs.
-- Reds won first two games of San Francisco series, 5-1/2-1.

-- Toronto won five of its last six home games. Angels won nine of their last thirteen games, but lost last two.
-- Bronx Bombers won 16 of their last 21 games, White Sox won six of their last eight games.
-- Rangers won 13 of their last 15 games.
-- Red Sox won 12 of their last 17 games.

Cold Teams
-- Houston was outscored 30-10 in losing its last five road games.
-- Phillies lost eight of their last ten away games.
-- Cardinals lost last three games, allowing 26 runs.
-- Atlanta lost eight of its last eleven home games. This is last game of road trip for Washington (4-5 on trip so far).
-- Colorado lost 17 of its last 23 games.
-- Arizona lost five of its last seven away games. Brewers lost five of their last seven games overall.
-- Dodgers lost 12 of last 14 games, scoring two runs in last six games.
-- Giants lost their last two games, scoring two runs.

-- Indians lost nine of their last 12 road games. Baltimore lost five of its last seven games.
-- Tampa Bay lost eight of its last eleven games. Tigers lost three of five.
-- Royals are 5-7 in their last dozen road games. Minnesota lost seven of its last 11 home games, but won last two.
-- Oakland lost four of its last five games.
-- Mariners lost 13 of their last 20 games; they're 3-3 this week, despite scoring eight runs in those six games.

Totals
-- 12 of last 15 Houston road games went over the total.
-- Over is 26-9 in Philly's last 35 games.
-- Six of last seven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven games at Coors Field.
-- Under is 11-6-1 in last eighteen Arizona road games.
-- 14 of last 16 Pittsburgh road games went over the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in Dodgers' last thirteen games.
-- Ten of last eleven Cincinnati games stayed under total.

-- Over is 8-2-1 in last eleven Angel games.
-- Under is 9-4-2 in last fifteen Cleveland road games.
-- Eight of last eleven White Sox games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Detroit games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 9-3-1 in last thirteen Oakland games.
-- Eight of last ten Kansas City road games stayed under.
-- Last eight Seattle games stayed under the total.

Umpires
-- Pitt-StL-- Four of last five Wolf games went over the total.
-- Wsh-Atl-- Seven of last ten McClelland games went over.
-- Cin-SF-- Under is 8-2-1 in last eleven Iassogna games.
-- Hst-Chi-- Seven of last nine Everitt games stayed under.
-- Phil-Mia-- Favorites won last six Demuth games.
-- NY-LA-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Randazzo games. 5:00 local time start; shadows could be a factor.
-- Az-Mil-- Four of last five Hickox games stayed under the total.
-- SD-Col-- Six of last eight Carapazza games stayed under total.

-- LA-Tor-- Favorites won six of last seven Hoye games.
-- Chi-NY-- Five of last seven Cooper games went over the total.
-- Clev-Blt-- 12 of last 15 Drake games went over the total.
-- KC-Min-- 14 of 15 Emmel games went over total; they played twinbill Saturday; check late to make sure Emmel is behind plate here.
-- A's-Tex-- Visiting team won six of last nine Gonzalez games.
-- Bos-Sea-- 11 of last 15 Culbreth games went over total.
-- Det-TB-- Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Muchlinski games.

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Today's MLB Picks

Washington at Atlanta

The Nationals look to build on their 5-0 record in Gio Gonzalez' last 5 road starts. Washington is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Nationals favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JULY 1 Time Posted: 7:30 a.m. EST

Game 951-952: Philadelphia at Miam (1:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Blanton) 13.716; Miami (Nolasco) 14.583 Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 10 Vegas Line: Miami (-125); 9 Dunkel Pick: Miami (-125); Over

Game 953-954: Washington at Atlanta (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Gonzalez) 16.857; Atlanta (Hudson) 15.207 Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 8 1/2 Vegas Line: Atlanta (-120); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Washington (+100); Over

Game 955-956: Arizona at Milwaukee (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (Collmenter) 15.942; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.669 Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1/2; 8 Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-155); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+135); Under

Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (2:15 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Bedard) 15.148; St. Louis (Westbrook) 15.329 Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: St. Louis (-160); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-160); Under

Game 959-960: Houston at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.840; Cubs (Wood) 14.748 Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-120); No Run Total Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-120); N/A

Game 961-962: San Diego at Colorado (3:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Wells) 15.309; Colorado (Pomeranz) 14.488 Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 11 Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 12 Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+130); Under

Game 963-964: Cincinnati at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Arroyo) 16.128; San Francisco (Vogelsong) 15.115 Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1; 6 1/2 Vegas Line: San Francisco (-145); 7 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+125); Under

Game 965-966: NY Mets at LA Dodgers (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Gee) 15.614; LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.852 Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1/2; 5 1/2 Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-150); 6 1/2 Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-150); Under

Game 967-968: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:35 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Masterson) 14.035; Baltimore (Matusz) 1.4810 Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 9 1/2 Vegas Line: Cleveland (-115); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-105); Under

Game 969-970: Detroit at Tampa Bay (1:40 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Smyly) 15.013; Tampa Bay (Cobb) 13.796 Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1; 7 1/2 Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-130); 8 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+110); Under

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at NY Yankees (2:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Floyd) 15.966; NY Yankees (Hughes) 17.079 Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 10 Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-165); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-165); Under

Game 973-974: Kansas City at Minnesota (2:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Chen) 14.797; Minnesota (Liriano) 13.973 Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 8 Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Over

Game 975-976: LA Angels at Toronto (3:07 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Wilson) 15.861; Toronto (Laffey) 16.246 Dunkel Line: Toronto by 1/2; 9 Vegas Line: LA Angels (-150); 9 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+130); Under

Game 977-978: Boston at Seattle (4:10 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Doubront) 16.424; Seattle (Vargas) 15.182 Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 9 Vegas Line: Boston (-125); 8 Dunkel Pick: Boston (-125); Over

Game 979-980: Oakland at Texas (7:05 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Blackley) 14.927; Texas (Darvish) 16.411 Dunkel Line: Texas by 1 1/2; 11 1/2 Vegas Line: Texas (-220); 10 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Texas (-220); Over

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Hondo

Strasburg, aka The Big Nat, couldn’t handle the Atlanta heat, which was further intensified by having Hondo on his back yesterday. As a result, Washington was defeated and the debt grew to 1,580 crandalls.

Today, Mr. Aitch will switch dugouts for a 10-unit plunge on Hudson and the Braves

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 867- 639 (58 %) over the last 4 years PLUS

Sun: Red Sox -125

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Gamblers Data

Free Play Sunday

Cubs -125

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5Lines - 7/1

MLB - Seattle Mariners : u8
MLB - Toronto Blue Jays : +1.5

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Cappers Access

Angels(RL)
Rangers(RL)

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Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs - CUBS TO WIN (-117)
Listed Pitchers: Rodriguez vs Wood
(Note: I'm risking 2.34 units to win 2.00 units)

- Wood has been pitching great lately. Houston poor on the road, and Cubs good or at least average home ball club.

1 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles - INDIANS TO WIN (-104)
Listed Pitchers: Masterson vs Matusz
(Note: I'm risking 1.04 units to win 1.00 unit)

- Yes I factored in that Thome could be in the line up for Baltimore Sunday.

1 UNIT = Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (+136)
Listed Pitchers: Wilson vs Laffey
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.36 units)

- Found value in this pick with how hot the streaky Blue Jays bats are right now. An added boost from a packed Rogers Centre for Canada Day to see the Blue Jays in their red uniforms should help too.

[poopoo333]

JOE WIZ DAILY FREE PICK

Under 11 runs Texas and Oakland

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
4* UNDER 54 Montreal vs. Calgary (Sunday 7/1 1:00PM EST)

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ Chicago Cubs - CUBS TO WIN (-117)
Listed Pitchers: Rodriguez vs Wood
(Note: I'm risking 2.34 units to win 2.00 units)

- Wood has been pitching great lately. Houston poor on the road, and Cubs good or at least average home ball club.

1 UNIT = Cleveland Indians @ Baltimore Orioles - INDIANS TO WIN (-104)
Listed Pitchers: Masterson vs Matusz
(Note: I'm risking 1.04 units to win 1.00 unit)

- Yes I factored in that Thome could be in the line up for Baltimore Sunday.

1 UNIT = Los Angeles Angels @ Toronto Blue Jays - BLUE JAYS TO WIN (+136)
Listed Pitchers: Wilson vs Laffey
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.36 units)

- Found value in this pick with how hot the streaky Blue Jays bats are right now. An added boost from a packed Rogers Centre for Canada Day to see the Blue Jays in their red uniforms should help too.