7-5-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

Philadelphia +124 over N.Y. METS Pinnacle
R.A. Dickey has been nothing short of brilliant all season long. He’s 12-1 overall with a 2.15 ERA and at home he’s even better with a 6-0 record and a 1.85 ERA. Dickey is close to having one of the best seasons in baseball history with his Sandy Koufax like numbers. The question becomes, “can it last?” Dickey has been helped by a 20% hit rate and an 86% strand rate. Nobody really knows how long he can get by with a trick pitch but for now, we’ll gladly back Cole Hamels taking back a tag like this one. The Phillies snapped an ugly losing streak last night with a 9-4 victory. The Mets are just 11-18 against southpaws this season and Hamels is one of the best lefties in the game. Everything about him is elite. He has 111 K’s in 111 frames. He’s issued just 28 walks. He has a groundball bias profile, a 3.17 xERA and he’s 10-4 coming into this one. Rarely will you see a price like this one on a pitcher of his calibre. The Mets bullpen has been a mess all year and if this one gets decided by the pens we like our chances even more. Play: Philadelphia +124 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND -105 over Tampa Bay Pinnacle
The Rays are coming off an intense three-game set against the Yankees in which they took two out of three. All three games came right down to the wire. After that series and with the All-Star break on deck, this can easily be a big letdown spot for the Rays, allowing us to step in with confidence on the mildly hot Indians. Cleveland has won two in a row, four of five and have scored 53 runs over its past seven games. That could spell trouble for Jeremy Hellickson. Hours after being activated from the DL (shoulder fatigue), Hellickson took the hill against the Tigers on Saturday and threw just 2.2 innings. His last pre-DL start on June 14 (8 runs, 9 hits in 3.2 IP) has skewed his 2012 numbers a bit for the worse but a widening gulf between ERA and xERA (3.45, 4.60) is concerning. He’s outpitched his skills ever since arriving on the big-league level (39% groundball rate and a low strikeout rate) and it’s finally catching up to him. Josh Tomlin is 4-5 in 12 starts. He’s not going to dazzle anyone but he usually gives the Tribe a chance to win. This one isn’t about backing Tomlin. It’s about playing the hottest bats in the league in a very favorable spot. Play: Cleveland -105 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Braves -130
50* Mets -130

[Mr. IWS]

Beat The Odds - Al Rogers Picks

San Francisco Giants at Washington Nationals
3 units on Washington Nationals +1.5

Philadelphia Phillies at NY Mets
4 units on NY Mets -130

[getloose]

Has anyone run run across Chris Jordan and Chuck Obriens plays for today?
Thanks!!!!!!!!

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner:
500* MLB Rangers -135
100* MLB Braves -130
50* MLB Mets -130

[Mr. IWS]

GREG SHAKER
13-5 RUN TOTALS

2* Chicago/Atlanta Over 8.5
2* Colorado/Cardinals over 9.5
2* Houston/ Pittsburgh Over 8.5
2* Cleveland -110

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Thursday

100* Play St. Louis (-200) over Colorado (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 8:00 PM EST

Lance Lynn has won 6 of the last 7 games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs and he has won 6 consecutive games coming off a win. Lance Lynn has won 5 of the last 6 games as a favorite of -150 or higher and he has won two of the last three games vs. NL West Division Opponents.

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50* Play LA Angels (-150) over Baltimore (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Arizona (-175) over LA Dodgers (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

1 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ Washington Nationals - NATIONALS TO WIN (+111)
Listed Pitchers: Cain vs Detwiler
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.11 units)

The Nationals look to sweep away the Giants, as they've taken the first two games 9-4 and 9-3. Washington sits a top of the NL East with their 47-32 record, and they are 22-14 at home. The Giants are 45-37 on the year but just 19-21 away from home. Take a look at the Nationals recent outings and you can see that they are swinging hot bats. Washington has scored 5 or more runs in 8 straight games, which includes an average of 8.63 runs per game and they have won 6 of those 8 games. The Giants have scored 5 or more runs just once over their last 8 games, and they have won just once in their past 5. Matt Cain takes the mound for San Francisco and looks to rebound from allowing 11 hits and 5 earned runs over 6.2 innings in his last start. Although he is 5-1 on the road, Cain has pitched much better at home with his ERA more than a full run higher on the road (still a respectable 3.18) and his WHIP at 1.22 compared to 0.73 at home. Detwiler has returned to the rotation and is 4-3 on the season with a 3.30 ERA. He is 3-3 as a starter with a 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and .246 opponents batting average (note that these numbers are pretty close to Cain's road numbers). The Giants are just 2-5 in their last 7 road games and 2-7 in Cain's last 9 as a road favorite. The Nationals have won 4 straight road games, are 13-6 in their last 19 home games v a team with a losing road record, and are 11-4 in Detwiler's last 15 starts vs a team with a winning record. Note that the Giants are just 1-6 in their last 7 of Game 3 of a series, while the Nats are 5-2 in their last 7 of a Game 3. The Nationals are 5-2 in these two teams last 7 meetings and 4-0 in their last 4 meetings in Washington. Swinging the bats like they are right now I like Washington as underdogs at home.

1 UNIT = Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets - METS TO WIN (-115)
Listed Pitchers: Hamels vs Dickey
(Note: I'm risking 1.15 units to win 1.00 unit)

We are going to stay in this series again tonight, as the teams have split the first two games. New York won 11-1 on Tuesday night while the Phillies won 9-2 yesterday afternoon. The win snapped a 6 game losing skid for the Phillies, while the loss was just the 2nd in 7 games for the Mets. New York sits at 44-38 on the year and 24-18 at home, while the Phillies are last place in the division with their 37-46 record and 20-22 road record. Tonight's match up features two fo the NL's best starting pitchers right now with Cole Hamels and R.A. Dickey. Hamels is 10-4 on the year with a 3.08 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and .232 opponents batting average. On the road his ERA is bumped up a little bit to 3.49, but he is still 5-1 over 7 starts. R.A Dickey is having a career year with a 12-1 record, 2.15 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, and .190 opponents batting average. At home his numbers get even better with a 6-0 record, 1.85 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and .168 opponents batting average. In his career Hamels is just 5-10 with a 4.34 ERA against the Phillies, while Dickey is 3-3 with a 2.40 ERA vs the Phillies over the past 10 years. Also taking a look at individual player stats vs Hamels you'll see a number of the Mets hitters have had success against Hamels, while few Phillies hitters have had much success against Dickey. The Phillies are 3-9 in their last 12 vs a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15, 1-7 in their last 8 road games, and 0-5 in their last 5 Game 3 of a series. The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 as a home favorite, 8-1 in Dickey's lsat 9 home starts, and 17-5 in his last 22 starts overall. Only having to lay the juice plus a little bit of chalk on the Mets tonight who have been great at home especially with in my opinion the NL's best pitcher to date seems like good value to me. Take the Mets to win tonight for 1 unit.

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
4* Under 9 Mia / Mil

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff benton
20 dime indians

[Mr. IWS]

CHRIS JORDAN

600* Pirates -140

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover MLB Money Line Thu, 07/05/12 - 7:05 PM

dime bet 971 TAM (-105) vs 972 CLE

Analysis: Jeremy Hellickson is healthy and faces Josh Tomlin. That's a huge advantage for Tampa Bay and puts me on the Rays.

Hellickson is one of the best young pitcher when at full strength. Tomlin has an 8.24 ERA in his past four starts. He has a 5.25 career ERA versus the Rays in two career outings.

The Rays have beaten the Indians in four of the last five meetings.

[Mr. IWS]

Dave Cokin is on the Rays

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo
MIN (+130) @ DET [10:05pm PDT]
MIA @ MIL (-120) [11:10am PDT]
HOU @ PIT (-135) [4:05pm PDT]
SF (-120) @ WSH [4:05pm PDT]
CHC @ ATL o8 (+100) [4:10pm PDT]

This play is 'plus' half the color:
MIA @ MIL u9 (-115) [11:10am PDT]

The following are half the color:
KC @ TOR (-135) [4:05pm PDT]
PHI @ NYM (-115) [4:10pm PDT]
BAL @ LAA (-145) [7:05pm PDT]