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Oakland got the better of the Twins last night, and they are an improved team back from the break. The Twins lost 99 games a year ago, but have shown signs of improvement too. The Twins are 14 games below the .500 mark, but that is deceiving as they are 21-18 over their last 39 games. Cole deVries has given them solid outings and is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his first five major league starts. In his last time out he was impressive, holding the hard-hitting Texas Rangers to three hits and no runs over 7 innings in Arlington. Tom Milone has given the A's four straight strong outings, but they are still just 1-7 in his last eight starts following a quality start in his last outing. The A's play down to the level of competition just 5-15 in their last 20 vs. a team with a home winning percentage of under .400. The Twins are grabbing the cash in four of their last five vs. a left-handed starter. Play on Minnesota.
LA Dodgers/ San Diego Over 7: I see the money is driving this total Up, so i will post it here before it goes higher, and I will have the writeup for it a bit later.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Toronto/ Cleveland Under 10: Last night just 1 run was scored in the game and while I don't see that happening here I do expect this game to be a pretty easy under. Since Aaron Laffey was put in the rotation he has had 3 very good starts, allowing just 5 ER's in the 3 starts combined. Those 3 teams he faced were Boston, the White Sox and the Angels, so he did it vs pretty good offenses. The Tribes offense has been pretty solid of late, putting up 5.8 rpg in their last 10 games, but they do hit just .231 vs lefties on the road, compared to .268 vs righties and they score just 4.05 rp/9 off of lefties on the road, compared to 5.07 rp/9 vs righties. T he Jays come in struggling slightly on offense, as they have scored 2 runs of fewer in 3 of their last 4 games and they will be taking on Ubaldo Jiminez, who has been pitching very well of late. In his last 7 starts Ubaldo has a 2.93 ERA and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 7 of his last 10 starts. He does have a 5.36 ERA on the road, but in his last 4 away from home that ERA is 2.05. Both starters can and will shut down these offenses as this game hits 7 runs at best.
St. Louis/ Cincinnati Under 9: Kyle Lohse gets the call for the Cards today and he has been very consistent this year. Kyle Has a 2.79 ERA overall and a 2.79 ERA on the road. He has a 2.01 ERA in his last 7 starts and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in any of those starts, while in his last 3 starts on the road he has allowed a total of 4 ER's. Kyle has also faced the Reds 5 times since 2009 and has a 1.41 ERA in those starts, not allowing more than 2 ER's in any of them and he should keep it going today vs a Cincy offense that has put up just 3.8 rpg in their last 11 games. The Cards offense hasn't been that great of late as well, as they have averaged just 4.2 rpg in their last 11 games, compared to their season average of 4.95 rpg. Mike Leake has a 5.15 ERA at home this year, but overall he has been pitching very good of late. In his last 3 starts he has a 1.88 ERA, while in his last 10 starts he has allowed more than 3 ER's in a game just once. He has been very consistent and should have a good showing vs a struggling Cards offense. I expect both starters to have good games in this one as the game hits around 7 runs at most.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Detroit/ Baltimore Under 9: Detroit's pitching has really been good of late as they have allowed just 2.7 rpg in their last 6 games. Max Scherzer has been pitching very well of late as well as he has a 2.84 ERA in his last 3 starts and has allowed more than 3 ER's just once in his last 9 starts. Let's also note that none of his last 5 starts have put up more than 8 runs. He will be taking on a struggling Baltimore offense that has scored just 5 runs in their last 4 games and they have put up 3 runs or less in 8 of their last 10 games at home. Wei-Yin Chen has struggled in his last 3 starts (6.62 ERA), but overall his numbers are not bad as he has a 3.93 ERA on the year, with just 7.6 rpg being scored in his starts. Chen has a 3.53 ERA at home and a 3.82 ERA in day starts, with his 6 day starts averaging just 7.2 rpg. Detroit can score as they average 4.5 rpg on the road, but they have never seen Chen and that gives him an advantage. I expect Chen to bounce back with a solid outing here, while Max continues to pitch well and keep this one at 8 or less. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- This situation doesn't come up much (15 times since 2006), but it has been profitable when it does. Since 2006 the UNDER is 13-2 when Detroit is a road favorite in a day game off a win in which they allowed 7 hits or less. An average of just 7.2 rpg have been scored in this spot.
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