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Bob balfe
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DOC SPORTS
3-unit Play Take #908 Houston Astros (+115) over San Diego Padres (10:05pm EST)
Two of the National League's worst square off today as the San Diego Padres host the Houston Astros. The Padres check in at 36-54 while the Astros are even worse at 33-56. Both teams are building for the future, but the games must go on in the meantime. Houston has slowly started to build a decent collection of arms in the starting rotation, and J.A.H app is one of those pieces. At 29 years old he's one of the elders on the staff, but he's definitely showed some signs of finally figuring things out. Happ is 6-9 with a 5.14 ERA, but don't let that tell you the whole story. He has a career high strikeout rate of 8.6 per nine innings and has also tempered his walk rate down to his career low at 3.4. He's inducing more groundballs than ever and his pitches are more refined. The only key ingredient he is lacking is more confidence, but that is slowly coming along. I expect to see a breakthrough second half for Happ and better numbers than he's posted in his young career.
Kip Wells was promoted to the major leagues a few weeks ago out of desperation. San Diego has incurred several injuries to its pitching staff and Wells was one of the few experienced players in the minor leagues that they thought could step right in. He didn't really deserve the chance to pitch again in the major leagues after his three year hiatus. Wells had a 4.97 ERA in Triple-A and his peripheral numbers were even worse. But the Padres brought him up anyways and today he'll make his fourth start of the season. He's posted a solid ERA at 2.50, but there are plenty of warning signs that Wells will find his way back to the minor leagues once again. He currently is walking more batters than he is striking out, and no pitcher can survive that for long. His fastball velocity is also down less than 90 mph and his stuff isn't all that impressive. He's throws a lot of junk up there and he's been fortunate to avoid disaster in his first three outings. Neither one of these offenses is very good, but the Astros have a slight leg up on the Padres. However, the Astros have lost 13 of their last 14 games, so the linesmakers were forced to put the Padres as the favorite in this one. Based on the pitching matchup, however, the Astros should be the favorites in this contest. Take Houston as an underdog tonight as we get some value with a struggling team.
3-unit Play Take #923 Seattle Mariners (+100) over Kansas City Royals (8:05pm EST)
We might have the worst starting pitcher in all of baseball on the mound in today's game between the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals. It's unbelievable that Jonathan Sanchez is still in the rotation for the Royals, but he's at it again tonight versus the Mariners. Sanchez comes in at 1-5 with a miserable 6.75 ERA. He is walking 7.4 batters per game, which is a major league worst for qualifying starters. He's had mechanical problems and has lost some of his velocity. He's spent time of the disabled list and there's a good chance that he's still injured. So why is Jonathan Sanchez still pitching for a team that has aspirations for getting back into the hunt in the American League Central? That's a great question that nobody can really answer.
What's even more egregious is the fact that the linesmakers have inserted Sanchez as a favorite in today's game. His opponent Jason Vargas is having a good season at 8-7 with a 4.08 ERA and the Mariners aren't so bad that they can't take advantage of a weak pitcher. Kansas City is also one of the worst home teams in baseball at 15-25 while the Mariners aren't terrible on the road at 20-26 this season. Not much more to analyze in this contest. The linesmakers made an error on this one and we'll take advantage by playing Seattle tonight against probably the worst starter in the majors right now.Comment
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Rich Sports
3* Play UNDER the Total in the Chicago/Boston game.
Chicago (49 – 39), and winners in 7 of their last 9 games, travel to Boston to take on the Red Sox. The White Sox will send Floyd to the mound where he has allowed only 4 runs in his last 3 starts. Floyd is 7 – 0 against Boston with a 2.75 ERA. Boston (45 – 44), returns home after taking 2 of 3 from the Rays. Cook will be facing the White Sox for only his 3rd time and the 1st time this season. In Cook’s last 2 starts he has allowed 3 hits and 1 run in each game. This is a chase A play to win 1 unit
Lean: Pirates
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Vegas Experts
St. Louis at Milwaukee
Play: St. Louis
We'll back the 11-game winner in Lance Lynn tonight as a small road underdog against Michael Fiers and the hosting Milwaukee Brewers. Lynn had a bit of a rough stretch prior to the All-Star break, but did rebound with a very good outing his last time out - allowing no runs over six innings against Colorado. Lynn already shut down the Brewers here in Milwaukee to the tune of one run over 6 2/3 innings, and while Fiers has good numbers this season, the Brewers have one only once in his four home starts. Back the better pitcher tonight with a small underdog return!Comment
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Rob Vinciletti/Golden Contender
Chicago White Sox vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox
Boston comes home for the Return of Youkilis. They do so with the benefit of a solid plays against system that applies to Chicago as we note that road dogs off a road favored win, while scoring 4 or less runs have struggled vs teams like Boston off a road win. Boston will look to snap a 7 game home losing streak to Chicago in this one. The Pitching looks about even, but one would think that Boston would want this one more.Comment
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