7-17-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

COLORADO -118 over Pittsburgh
You might remember the Pirates being in a similar situation last season when they were the league’s biggest first half surprise heading into the break, just a game behind Cincinnati for first in the NL Central. Then the wheels came off and the Pirates ended up going 16-40 the rest of the way for the worst 2H collapse in history. Coming off the break, Pittsburgh has lost three out of four games, including the opener of this set last night. They overachieved again in the first half and that allows us to fade them in the proper situation.

It's no secret that Erik Bedard gets hurt. He's started more than 28 games only once in his career while averaging only 73 IP over each of the past four seasons. Bedard suffered through a rough June (4.70 xERA) and has given up nine runs with a 6/5 K/BB over 8.3 innings in July. We’re starting to see his repeating demise again and before a likely visit to the disabled list occurs, we should seize this opportunity.

Christian Friedrich has displayed great skills despite poor surface stats thanks to a 37% hit rate, 66% strand rate and a 14% hr/f. That’s just bad luck for a guy with an xERA (3.78), which is almost two runs lower than his actual ERA of 5.60. Friedrich has 69 K’s in 71 innings and is coming off a gem at home against the Phillies in which he went six full and allowed just five hits and one run. Finally, the Pirates have never seen Friedrich, which also works in our favor.
COLORADO -118 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 1.69)

OAKLAND +106 over Texas
The Athletics are the hottest team in baseball right now with nine wins in 10 games and for whatever reason, the Rangers bring out the best in Bartolo Colon. He beat the Rangers at home on June 6th, going eight scoreless innings to run his career total against them to 18-6 with a 3.61 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 184.2 innings. Colon is still going strong with a 48% groundball rate, outstanding control (17 BB in 104 IP) and back-to-back wins over Seattle and Boston. The A’s, who have scored 27 times over their past five games, get an opportunity to score a few more against Roy Oswalt. Oswalt has not been sharp, giving up 40 hits in his first four starts over 23 messy innings for a BAA of .385. He’s also surrendered 16 earned runs, resulting in an inflated ERA of 6.26. This park is likely to aid Oswalt but it does the same for the A’s and the superior Colon. Oakland has held its own against this club, winning half of the 10 games they’ve played against one another this season. The A’s weren’t hot then. They are now.
OAKLAND +106 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.12)

Miami -110 over CHICAGO
Travis Wood has won four consecutive starts for a truly awful team and has earned praise in the process, posting a 3.05 ERA over 10 season starts. The all-star break couldn’t have come at a worse time for this truly ordinary pitcher. Wood loses some momentum with an 11-day rest coming off the break. He has an ordinary BB/K rate of 24/42 in 64 IP. He also has a commonplace groundball/line-drive/fly-ball ratio of 41%/22%/37%. What isn’t ordinary is his unsustainable 3.05 ERA, which is almost two runs lower than his xERA of 4.69. The chances for an ordinary pitcher winning five straight for a poor club are remote at best. Remember, Wood went 6-6 with the Reds last year with an ERA of 4.84 in 106 frames and that’s the Travis Wood we expect to see in the second half. Meanwhile, Anibal Sanchez is wickedly good. He has one of the lowest line-drive rates in the league at 18%. His groundball rate is a stellar 50% and he also has 95 K’s and just 31 walks in 107 innings. Sanchez has been hurt by a low 69% strand rate and should that normalize (it usually does), he has the chance to be one of the best pitchers in the game in the second half. This is a gross underlay on the superior team with the better-quality pitcher.
Miami -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Tuesday

100* Play NY Yankees (-225) over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

CC Sabathia has won 20 of the last 26 home games as a favorite of -200 or higher and he has won 7 of the last 8 games when pitching on a Tuesday. CC Sabathia has won 17 of the last 22 home games when the total posted is between 9 and 10.5 runs and he is 2-0 over the last three starts with an ERA of 2.91.

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50* Play Boston (-170) over Chicago White Sox (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Tampa Bay (-155) over Cleveland (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Jeffrey James

#954 Cincinnati Reds with Cueto moneyline -165 (7:10 edt)

[Mr. IWS]

Neil Larson

Top Sport Cappers

10* San Francisco Giants +135

+107 Dimes last 10 days 67% Run

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog Sports

Game: Cleveland at Tampa Bay (7:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Tampa Bay -155 (moneyline)

The Cleveland Indians opened their series with Tampa with a win 3-2 last night. They will certainly be hard pressed to duplicate that pitching performance tonight behind Josh Tomlin. Tomlin owns a 5.45 ERA on the season, which is even worse on the road at 6.45. The Tribe is now just 19-39 in their last 58 as a road dog of +110 to +150, and with a total set from 7 to 8.5, they are just 3-10 in their last 13. Tampa Bay is tough at home, and have won four of their last five behind Moore vs. a winning club. The Tribe has struggled to find the win column in Tampa Bay where they are just 3-10 in their la

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Cincinnati/ Arizona Under 8.5: Let's take a look at the ML for a second here. The Reds are without Votto (the best hitter in the NL right now), yet they are still faves of 170+. That has me thinking that the D-backs are not expected to score a whole lot, and without Votto the Reds should struggle offensively as well. They did last night and with Votto slumping of late they have struggled to score some during this homestand. For the year the Reds have put up 4.6 rpg at home, but in their last 4 here they have averaged just 3.8 rpg. Tonight they face Trevor Bauer, who has allowed 2 runs or less in 2 of his 3 career starts and he has the added advantage of having never faced the Reds. Tonight the reds may not have to score much as they have their ace on the mound. Johnny Cueto comes in having allowed 3 ERS' or less on ZERO HR's in his last 8 starts, posting a 2.23 ERA over that stretch. At home he has a solid 2.28 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and has allowed just 2 HR's here all year. Johnny hasn't faced the D-Backs since 2009, but he still has allowed just 5 total ER's in his 4 career starts vs them and just 1 ER in his 2 career starts here vs them. The D-backs score just 3.5 rpg on the road and have put up just 8 total runs in the first 4 games of this trip, so I don't expect them to get much off of Cueto tonight. Both offenses will struggle to night as this game stays comfortably under the total.

3 UNIT PLAYS

Atlanta/ San Francisco Under 9: I know this game is in the Heat in Atlanta, but I feel this line is too high. Barry Zito has had a nice year for the Giants with a 7-6 mark and a 4.01 ERA and after his two worst outings of the year he has bounced back nicely with 3 good outings in a row as he has a 2.50 ERA over that stretch. Barry has faced the Braves just 5 times in his career and he has a 2.45 ERA in those starts. I know that he has only faced them 3 times since 2008, but still all three were in this park and he has a 1.29 ERA in those starts. The Giant offense scores well on the road, but will be without their best hitter (Melky Cabrera) in this one, and that should limit the damage they will do vs Jair Jurrjens. Speaking of Jair, he has really been pitching well since his return to the majors, as he has a 2.13 ERA in his 4 starts since being brought back. He does have a 5.09 ERA at home overall, but in his 2 starts since his return he has allowed just 2 ER's in 10.2 innings of work.We know the Braves can hit but allot of these guys haven't seen Barry and that should give him an edge here. Both starters are pitching well right now and that should keep the scoring down here. Look for 7 runs at best.


COLORADO -120 over Pittsburgh: I had a feeling I should have played the Rockies last night, but I just didn't pull the trigger. I will tonight. Pittsburgh will be sending out one of the worst starters in the NL tonight in Erik Bedard. Erik is just 4-10 on the year, with a 4.80 ERA.On the road he is 2-7 with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.72 WHIP, while at night he is 2-7 with a 5.72 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. Not good numbers when your about to face a Rockies team that scores 5.98 rpg at home, including 7.24 rpg at home at night. The Rockies have averaged just 3.3 rpg in their last 10 games, but 6 of those were on the road and during their home stand they have put up 5+ runs in 3 of the 4 games so far. This is a different offense at home than on the road. Despite putting up about a rpg more on the road, the Pirates have still struggled away from home, going just 20-26 on the road, compared to having the best home record in baseball. Christian Friedrich gets the ball for the Rockies and while he has an 8.01 ERA at home, he has pitched much better here in his last 2 starts, allowing just 2 ER's over 11 innings. Pittsburgh relies too much on MCcutchen offensively and I believe that will hurt them in the second half of the year, especially if their pitching starts to struggle. Tonight they do not have a good starter on the mound and Colorado is a dangerous team at home. Look for the Pirates to drop their 2nd straight at Coors.

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd 7/17
5* Atlanta Braves -143

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 7/17
953 D-Backs +142 @ 7:10p
956 Braves -150 @ 7:10p
972 Red Sox -175 @ 7:10p
973 Indians +138 @ 7:10p
958 Cubs +102 @ 8:05p
959 Cards -114 @ 8:10p
980 A's Even @ 10:05p

[Mr. IWS]

Dennis Martin 62.5% run

Top Sport Cappers

20* Oakland A's +105
10* LA Angels +110
10* White Sox / Red Sox OVER 10
10* Astros / Padres UNDER 7

[Mr. IWS]

Chris Jordan:

300♦ NEW YORK YANKEES RUN LINE - 125

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Los Angeles Angels +113

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy
4-Unit Play. #958. Take Chicago Cubs +105 over Miami Marlins (Tuesday @ 8:05pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Anthony

Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDTPick: Money Line: -125 Detroit Tigers Play Title: TOP PLAY AL GAME OF THE MONTH

Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees (MLB) - 7:05 PM EDTPick: Money Line: -226 New York Yankees Play Title: regular play

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

1 UNIT = Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees - YANKEES -1.5 (-113)
Listed Pitchers: Cecil vs Sabathia
(Note: I'm risking 1.13 units to win 1.00 unit)

1 UNIT = Texas Rangers @ Oakland Athletics - ATHLETICS TO WIN (+105)
Listed Pitchers: Oswalt vs Colon
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.05 units)

1 UNIT = Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres - OVER 7 RUNS (+105)
Listed Pitchers: Lyles vs Ohlendorf
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.05 units)