7-18-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.




Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton
40 Dime Phillies

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh -122 over COLORADO: Gotta go with the huge pitching advantage that the Pirates have in this one. James McDonald comes in 9-3 with a 2.59 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. On the road he has a 4-2 mark with a 3.97 ERA, while in his 7 day starts he is 3-1 with a skinny 1.85 ERA and an 0.87 WHIP. Now to the other side, we have Jeremy Guthrie who has pitched much better on the road than at Coors this year. On the road Jeremy has gone 2-4 with a solid 3.67 ERA, but in the thin air at Coors he has really struggled, going just 1-5 with a 9.23 ERA. He has a 1.85 WHIP and has allowed 12 HR's in just 39 innings at home. Pittsburgh doesn't have a great offense, but they do score much better on the road than at home and in this setting vs this pitcher their offense should have a good showing. Im still not sold on Pittsburgh lasting in the playoff race the whole second half, unless they get another big bat, but the Rockies are one of the worst teams in the league and have one of the worst home pitchers on the mound today. Look for Pittsburgh to take this one behind another solid outing from McDonald.

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS

N.Y. YANKEES -1½ +115 over Toronto

Tough spot for the Blue Jays after dropping the first two games of this series by scores of 6-1 and 6-3. They’ll be without Jose Bautista for the next two weeks and to replace him they’ve called up Anthony Gose. Gose has plenty of speed (70 stolen bases in 2011) but no power and is better known for his defense. Right now the Blue Jays need offense, especially with Ricky Romero on the hill. Romero is 3-3 on the road with a 5.65 ERA. Current Yanks have 205 career AB’s against him and in New York, they’ve ruined him to the tune of a 5.02 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. That was when Romero was the anchor of this rotation. This year, his skills have declined dramatically along with his confidence. He’s always struggled in the second half and with his struggles this season, he’s likely to labour even worse. Hiroki Kuroda is on track to post an excellent first season for New York. He has a 48% groundball rate and his command of the strike zone is a weapon in any park. With injuries claiming some other starters, the Yankees will be leaning heavily on Kuroda down the stretch. Bettors would be wise to do the same here.

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Ed Meyer

St Louis -143

Over the years, the St Louis Cardinals have OWNED their opponent in the rubber game of a three-game set. They are 69-32 in the history of the database as a favorite in the last game of a three-game series when they split the first two and they are on a 19-3 run recently - and all three losses were in extra innings.

The Brewers have the mental toughness of a banana slug in this spot, as they are 2-17 as a dog in the last game of a three-game series, including 0-8 since the start of the 2011 season as a dog in the last game of a three-game series that is tied at one each.

Finally, in Wainwright's last start, the Cardinals built an early 2-0 lead, but lost 5-3. This a very strong play-on spot for many perennial contenders and the Cardinals are no exception. St Louis is 17-3 on the ROAD when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost and they are off a night game - including 15-1 if their bullpen allowed at least one run in that loss.

Note that the Cardinals have won by an average of 4.9 runs per game over their last 16 in this spot.

This, of course, is baseball, so anything can happen. If you want a sure thing, don't bet baseball. Perhaps the Cardinals should be -150 in this spot giving us some line value. Whatever the case, we can state with confidence that they do not have a better than two-thirds chance to win this game. Nonetheless, it is worth a small play.

Now that I think about it… perhaps a play on the Cardinals over the first five innings is work because Wainwright has struggled when going through the batting order for the third time.

FORECAST: St Louis 5 MILWAUKEE 3

[Mr. IWS]

Neil Larson

Top Sport Cappers

10* Miami Marlins -115

[Mr. IWS]

Mike Anthony Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Baltimore Orioles vs. Minnesota Twins (MLB) - 8:10 PM EDTPick: Money Line: -140 Minnesota Twins Play Title: TOP PLAY AL GAME OF THE MONTH

[Mr. IWS]

ROCHESTERTITANS

5 Unit Philadelphia +110 over LA Dodgers
Just because Cliff Lee has only won 1 decision this season, do not overlook him. In his start against the Dodgers this season, this was his stat line:

7.2 IP, 6 H, 2 R (2 ER), 1 BB,12 K, 2.35 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, .214 BAA

Here are Lee's stats in his 4 career starts against the Dodgers:

30 IP, 3 R (3 ER), 5 BB, 35 K, 0.90 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, .203 BAA

2 of those 4 starts came at Dodger Stadium. Here are Lee's complete stats from those starts:

15.1 IP, 1 R (1 ER), 3 BB, 13 K, 0.59 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, .182

Clearly, Lee is very dominant against the Dodgers and at Dodger Stadium to say the least. Although Kershaw pitches notoriously well at home, his stats in 7 career starts against the Phillies are not great:

40 IP, 22 R (22 ER), 15 BB, 43 K, 4.95 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, .256 BAA

When you also consider that the Phillies are starting to look more like the team of last season with better hitting and their DL starting to shrink along with the struggling Dodgers offense and the Dodgers only being favored at -121 right now

[Mr. IWS]

ACE ACE

2 Units Pittsburgh -120
1.5 Units Reds -140

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Louis / The Sport Dr

MLB
Philadelphia vs. LA Dodgers, 07/18/2012 15:10
LA Dodgers -130

MLB
LA Angels vs. Detroit, 07/18/2012 19:05
LA Angels -110

MLB
Seattle vs. Kansas City, 07/18/2012 20:10
Kansas City -135

MLB
Arizona vs. Cincinnati, 07/18/2012 19:10
Cincinnati -145

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Wednesday

100* Play NY Yankees (-170) over Toronto (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 1:00 PM EST

New York has won 32 of the last 43 home games as a favorite of -150 to -175 and they have won 62 of the last 84 day games. New York has won 54 of the last 81 games vs. right-handed starting pitchers and they have won 43 of the last 65 games when playing in the month of July.

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50* Play St. Louis (-145) over Milwaukee (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Pittsburgh (-125) over Colorado (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres - PADRES TO WIN (-125) **AFTERNOON GAME**
Listed Pitchers: Rodriguez vs Richard
(Note: I'm risking 2.50 units to win 2.00 units)

I already gave a write up about these two teams two days ago when we had a play on San Diego, but quickly the Astros are just 10-36 on the road while the Padres are 18-28 at home. Houston is just 16-35 in their last 51 games overall, and 2-14 in their last 16 games. The Padres are 9-6 over their last 15 games. Wandy Rodriguez is 7-7 on the season with a 3.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and .260 opponents batting average. Clayton Richard is 6-10 on the year with a 3.83 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and .249 opponents batting average. Since the start of June Richard has had only two starts where he allowed more than 3 earned runs against, and in 6 of those 9 starts he allowed 2 or fewer earned runs against. As a team the Astros are hitting an awful .201 against lefties, while the Padres are a little better at .225. The Astros are just 13-40 in their last 53 games as an underdog, 19-67 in their last 86 road games, 1-4 in Rodriguez's last 5 starts overall, and 3-7 in his last 10 road starts. The Padres are 6-2 in their last 8 games following a win, 5-2 in their last 7 after scoring 5+ runs in their previous game, and 4-1 in Richard's last 5 starts vs a team with a losing record. San Diego is also 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs Houston. Clayton Richard has been the better pitcher of the two, and the Astros bats are pretty dead over their last 16 games where they've gone just 2-14. I like San Diego to pick up another win this afternoon.

1 UNIT = Chicago White Sox @ Boston Red Sox - WHITE SOX TO WIN (+159)
Listed Pitchers: Hernandez vs Doubront
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.59 units)

Chicago evened up this series 1-1 with a 7-5 win last night, with help from Youkilis' three run homerun against his former team. The White Sox are 50-40 and 26-18 on the road, while the Red Sox are just 46-45 and 23-25 at home. Pedro Hernandez will make his Major League debut tonight. He is 7-2 with a 2.90 ERA in the minors this year. Felix Doubront will make this a southpaw match up as he takes the mound. He is 9-4 on the year with a 4.41 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and .258 opponents batting average. Over two starts in July he has lasted just 10.2 innings but his ERA is at 3.38. In 5 June starts he was 3-2 with a high 5.83 ERA. At home Doubront is just 4-3 with a 5.66 ERA. The White Sox are 8-3 in their last 11 overall, and 5-1 in their last 6 vs a left handed starter. The Red Sox are just 12-26 in their last 38 home games vs a team with a winning road record. There is too much value on the White Sox to pass up on tonight, even with a rookie pitcher on the mound.

1 UNIT = San Francisco Giants @ Atlanta Braves - GIANTS TO WIN (+109)
Listed Pitchers: Vogelsong vs Minor
(Note: I'm risking 1.00 unit to win 1.09 units)

San Francisco snapped Atlanta's 7 game winning streak in a big way last night with a 9-0 victory. The Giants have now won 4 straight themselves after a weekend sweep of Houston to push them to 50-40 on the season and 21-24 on the road. The Braves are 49-40 on the season and 23-23 at home. Ryan Vogelsong is 7-4 with a 2.36 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, and .221 opponents batting average. Although he is known to be a better pitcher at home, Vogelsong is 3-2 on the road with a respectable 3.59 road ERA. Mike Minor will be on the rubber for Atlanta and he is barely hanging on to his spot in the rotation with a 5-6 record, 5.97 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .263 opponents batting average. Looking back at his starts, it is rare for Minor not to allow 4+ earned runs in a start, although he did have a pretty solid outing his last time out throwing 6.1 innings allowing just 3 hits and 2 earned runs. Take note that the Giants are 10-2 in Vogelsong's last 12 starts, and 22-5 in their last 27 games vs a starter with a WHIP higher then 1.30. The Braves are just 2-6 in Minor's last 8 starts vs a team with a winning record. Take the Giants as underdogs.

[Mr. IWS]

Rich Sports

3* Play Tampa plus the money line versus Cleveland. Cleveland (46-44) won for the third time in its last 13 games at Tampa Bay in the series opener Monday before the Rays bounced back with a 4-2 victory Tuesday. Masterson looks for his first victory in six appearances at Tropicana Field Wednesday night against the Tampa Bay Rays, who have pounded the right-hander throughout his career. Masterson’s loss two weeks ago dropped him to 1-7 with a 7.69 ERA in 12 appearances - eight starts - against the Rays, and he's 0-4 with an 8.46 ERA at Tropicana Field. The Rays (47-44) have totaled four runs in the last three games Hellickson has started, so they very due to get him some runs. Hellickson, the 2011 AL rookie of the year, is 1-1 with a 1.38 ERA in two career starts against the Indians. This is a chase A play to win 1 unit.

Lean Phillies

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

5* 'Never Lost' MLB Line Mistake of the Week!

Tampa Bay Rays +100

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog Sports

Game: Philadelphia at Los Angeles Dodgers (3:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -120 (moneyline)

The Philadelphia Phillies were given the keys to the National League Championship at the beginning of the season. What wasn't seen was an aging, declining lineup, injuries to their ace Roy Halladay, and Cliff Lee who was also penciled in for at least 15 wins. This team is still carrying the illusion of a good team despite the fact they are 13-26 in their last 39 games. Cliff Lee is also being based on the past, but he has been poor of late, winning just one game all season long. The Dodgers have their ace on the mound tonight in Clayton Kershaw who owns a 2.49 ERA at home on the season. The Phillies are just 3-13 in their last 16 when posted as a dog, and the Dodgers are now 7-0 at home behind Kershaw as a home favorite of -110 to -150 Play on LA.