| Jeff Scott Sports TOP PLAYS 4 UNIT PLAY Tampa Bay/ Baltimore Under 9: Since allowing 10 runs to the Indians last week the Tampa staff has done a great job, allowing just 9 total runs in their last 6 games. James shields has struggled of late allowing 4 ER's or more in 5 of his last 6 starts, but he will be taking on a struggling offense today. The O's have scored just 10 total runs in their last 5 games, including just 1 run in each of their last 3 games. The Orioles have hit just .234 and have scored 4 rpg vs righties this year, with those games going 42-27 to the UNDER. The Orioles have had one of the better staffs for much of the year and while they did allow 10 runs last night they has still allowed 3 ER's or less in each of their previous 7 games. Chris Tillman gets the ball today and he has a 2.15 ERA in three starts this year. He did have 1 rough start but he other two have been solid and he has allowed 3 ER's or less in 4 of his 5 career starts vs the Rays. Tampa's offense has been a mess for much of the year, as they have hit just .233 and have scored just 4.2 rpg overall this year.The Rays do average 4.5 rpg on the road, but they have averaged just 3.9 rpg this year in day games and just 3.8 rpg in their last 5 games overall, despite putting up 10 runs last night. Tampa's last 5 games have averaged just 5.6 rpg, while the O's last 5 have averaged just 6 rpg. I expect the pitchers to get the better of this one. 3 UNIT PLAYS POWER ANGLE PLAY ST LOUIS -135 over LA Dodgers: Google News Play. We will side with the Cardinals in this one. Some interesting stats for Chris Capuano here. Cris may be 5-3 ob the road this year, but his ERA is 4.10, compared to a 1.64 ERA at home. That has been pattern for him in his career as he has a 3.75 ERA in his home starts, compared to a 4.72 ERA in his road starts. Now in last night's game there were temps of over 100 at game time and you can expect similar temps for this one and for a pitcher that seems to tire in the second half that could be a factor. In his career Chris is 10 games over .500 with a 3.70 ERA in the first half, but in the second half he is 12 games under .500 with a 4.88 ERA. We also note that Chris was 3-0 with a 3.57 ERA in 3 career starts at the old Busch Stadium, but he has gone 0-3 with a 7.36 ERA in 4 career starts in this park. Jake Westbrook has been pitching very well for the Cards of late and even though he is just 1-2 in his last 3 starts he has a 2.14 ERA over that stretch. Jake is 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home, but in his last 2 home starts he is 1-0 with an 0.66 ERA. The Dodgers arenot a great road team, while the Cards are tough at home and looking to keep pace with the Reds. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play against road dogs of +125 to +175 that hits .250 or less and has a pitcher that allows 5.5 hits or less per game vs a team, who's starter has a .370 or better ERA. This Angle is 59-17 the last 5+ seasons. Pittsburgh -155 over HOUSTON: In their home series vs the Cubs, Pittsburgh really looked disinterested at time and they lost 2 of three to Chicago. Their offense had troubles scoring, as they put up just 4 runs in the 3 games, but I believe that getting away from their big park and playing in a more offensive minded park vs one of the worst staffs in the league will really help this team. Also having AJ Burnett on the mound won't hurt either. AJ has allowed no more than 3 ER's in 13 of his 16 starts this year. He really has had just 2 bad starts and one of them was at home vs Houston, in which he allowed 6 ER's in 5 innings of work, so you can bet that he will be fully focused for a little payback in this one. AJ does have a 6.30 ERA on the road, but if you throw out the game vs St Louis, in which he allowed 12 ER's, then he would have a very nice 4-2 mark with a 3.86 ERA. In that last game that Houston rocked AJ they put up 7 runs, but have since (18 games) scored 7 or more just once and have averaged a mere 2.7 rpg. This is a team with a lot of offensive problems and they don't look to get better vs this staff this weekend. The Pirates score around 3.5 rpg at home, but on on the road they put up 4.6 rpg and should do well vs Dallas Keuchel, who has just 5 starts in his career. He did well in his first 3 starts, allowing just 1 ER in each, but has been hit in his last two starts, allowing 10 ER's in the two starts. One of those was vs the Pirates and they tagged him for 4 ER's on 7 hits in 5.2 innings of work. Now having faced the Pirates already he loses his advantage, Not that he really had one vs them the first time. Pittsburgh couldn't get up for the lowly Cubs and it cost them two games. They won't let that happen here vs a team that is just 2-22 in their last 24 games. OTHER PLAYS 2 UNIT PLAYS Toronto/ Oakland Under 9 Detroit/ Cleveland Under 7.5 1 UNIT PLAY St Louis/ LA Dodgers Over 9 2 POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (8-1 RUN) (17-9 +5.31 Units) Since 2007 the OVER is 18-2 when the Cards are off a game which was tied in exactly 3 separate occasions. Play on St Louis/ Dodgers OVER 9. Since 2004 the Royals are just 2-16 in game 1 of a series if the line is within 20 cents of a pick and they are off a 5+ run loss and their pitcher had a WHIP of more than 1.50 in that game. Play on Seattle -119 over Kansas City. Well it was good day overall yesterday as I went 6-2 overall and 3-0 in my top plays. I have now gone 43-19-2 over the last 19 days and my top plays are on a 17-6 run |
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