| Sports Wagers N.Y. Mets/SAN FRAN Over 8 +110 12:45 PM EST. Barry Zito is 8-7 with a 3.89 ERA. At home, he’s 4-4 with a 3.41 ERA and over his last three starts, he’s 1-1 with a 3.26 ERA. Looks pretty consistent, doesn’t it? On paper, yes, but a peek under the hood reveals some issues. Over the last month, Zito’s very average groundball rate of 41% has dropped to 37%. He’s still allowed four runs or more in half of his past eight starts. His control and strikeout levels remain below average and his form suggests an xERA of 4.83 in these final two months. Chris Young is even worse. Since coming off the DL on June 6 and subsequently starting 10 games, Young has 34’s K’s in 57 innings but has struck out two or less in three of his past four starts. More troublesome is that his groundball/fly-ball profile sits at 26%/58%, which is one of the major’s worst marks. Just how bad is he? Young has an xERA of 7.13. Alarming, to say the least. Then there’s the park factor. The damp night time air makes this open-air park extremely pitcher-friendly. However, this is a day game in San Francisco and summer days favor hitters at AT&T Park. A check of the conditions shows the wind blowing out to right center at 16 MPH and with everything working in our favor this becomes a very playable total. N.Y. Mets/SAN FRAN over 8 +110 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.20) |
| MLBPredictions / Kevin 2 Unit = Minnesota Twins @ Boston Red Sox - TWINS TO WIN (+170) Listed Pitchers: Deduno vs Lester (Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 3.40 units) The Minnesota Twins had won 4 straight before losing the final two games versus the White Sox each by a single run. Over that 6 game span the Twins scored 40 runs (6.67 per game). They are now 44-60 on the season and 21-28 on the road. The Red Sox couldn't sweep the Tigers as they fell 7-5 in last night's ball game, but had won 4 straight heading into the game. They are 53-52 and 27-29 at home. Tonight's starter for Minnesota is Sam Deduno who is 2-0 through 4 starts with a 3.13 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, and .247 opponents batting average. Over his last two starts he has pitched 13.1 innings of work allowing just 2 earned runs and 8 hits. In AAA this season he had a solid 2.14 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and .185 opponents batting average. Southpaw Jon Lester will take the rubber for Boston and he is 5-8 on the season with a 5.49 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and .286 opponents batting average. Over his last 4 starts he has allowed 4, 6, 11, and 4 earned runs against (25 in 18.1 innings) only getting out of the 4th inning once. His July ERA was 9.36 over 5 starts with batters hitting .357 against him. Take note that the Red Sox are just 2-8 in their last 10 games as a favorite of -151 to -200, 1-4 in Lester's last 5 starts overall, and 1-6 in his last 7 home starts. They are also 0-5 in Lester's last 5 starts as a home favorite of -151 to -200. With the Twins averaging over 6 runs per game in their recent 6 game home stand there is a good chance they can get to Lester who has been struggling. Deduno has pitched relatively well and should give the Twins a good shot at upsetting Boston tonight. There is some good value on the Twins +170 tonight and we will take that for 2 units. |
| Jeff Scott Sports TOP PLAY 4 UNIT PLAY Atlanta/ Miami Under 8.5: I will have writeup for this game a little later. Wanted to get it out before the line drops to 8. OTHER PLAYS 2 UNIT PLAY San Diego/ Cincinnati Under 8.5: Only one of Johnny Cueto's starts have seen more than 8 runs scored this year and one of those was in Colorado. 1 UNIT PLAY San Francisco/ NY Mets Over 7.5: Yes the Mets are facing a lefty again. These two pens have been solid in the last 2 games, but that can't last. 2 EXTRA POWER ANGLES FOR TODAY (17-3 RUN) (26-11 +12.45 UNITS) Since 2005 the OVER is 12-1 in a Mets game when playing a day game after scoring 3 runs or less and winning as a dog. Play NY Mets/ San Francisco Over 7.5. Since 2010 the Atlanta Braves are 27-8 at home off a loss in which they had at least 3 times as many hits as runs. Play on Atlanta -173 over Miami |
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