| SPORTS WAGERS - MLB San Diego vs. PITTSBURGH San Diego +133 over PITTSBURGH The heat is on for the Pirates, who remain very much in the race but are beginning to falter. They’ve lost four of seven and two of three against the D-Backs in a crucial, just completed home series. Meanwhile, the Padres are hot with four wins in a row and five wins in their past six. Edison Volquez has wicked stuff. He has 125 K’s in 135 innings but his control has prevented him from being among the elite. Volquez has walked 80 batters this season. However it’s getting better and his outstanding 52% groundball rate and 18% line-drive rate rank him among the best in the league in those two important categories. You must get to him early because no pitcher in the league has put up better numbers than Volquez when making it through the order a second and third time. James McDonald has enjoyed a 3.42 ERA, 1.19 WHIP breakout so far this season but he has hit a wall during the last month. Prior to last year’s 171 innings pitched, MacDonald had never pitched more than 72 innings in a season in his career. With 171 last year and 137 this season, fatigue and durability concerns are arising. MacDonald has been hit hard over his last five starts, surrendering 4, 6, 5, 5 and 3 runs respectively. His BAA over that stretch was .345. The Pirates have lost four of his last five starts and in no way can he be trusted in this range over a very undervalued and talented Edison Volquez. MINNESOTA vs Tampa Bay MINNESOTA +104 over Tampa Bay The Rays are coming off a sweep of the Blue Jays but Toronto’s offense has been the AL’s worst since the break. Tampa will have no such luck against the Twins. Minnesota has scored the second most runs since the all-star break and owns the AL’s third best OPS at .796. Cole De Vries has come out of nowhere to post a 3.81 ERA and 1.12 WHIP after his first 59 innings with the Twins. He has relied upon his four-pitch mix and pinpoint control, attributes that were also his calling card in Triple-A. In his last start at Fenway, he went seven full and allowed just four hits and two runs. De Vries will now face a Rays’ club averaging just 2.7 runs per game with an awful .576 OPS over their last 12 games. Jeremy Hellickson has been on our fade list all season long and for good reason. He’s always outpitched his skills since arriving here and this year is no different. He has a below average groundball/line-drive/fly-ball profile of 39%/21%/40%. His strikeout and walk rates are also below average at 44 BB’s and 76 K’s in 115 frames. His strikeout rate and control ineptitude have been masked by a low hit rate and high strand rate. Hellickson has lived a charmed life for too long and it will eventually catch up to him. He should not be favored on the road pitching for an offense that can’t score runs. |
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