| Sports Wagers Tampa Bay +144 over TEXAS The Rangers are so tough at home but when we can take back a price like this on the Rays with a pitching matchup that under the surface favors the Rays, we’ll bite almost every time. Matt Harrison's ticket to the All-Star Game was punched largely on the strength of his W-L record. He’s 15-7 with a 3.07 ERA but luck has played a major role in those numbers. Harrison’s strand rate over the past month has been 82%. On the year, it’s 79%. When you combine that with an average strikeout rate of 101 batters in 169 innings, it confirms that balls in play have been hit right at people and that is unsustainable. Harrison’s 4.08 xERA strongly suggests some regression in the final month. He’s definitely a reliable starter but he doesn't profile as an All-Star from a skills perspective. By contrast, Alex Cobb has not been nearly as fortunate with a 65% strand rate, 15 points lower than Harrison’s. That’s a big discrepancy and when things even it over time, the numbers will show Alex Cobb to be the more skilled of the two. Cobb has an elite 58% groundball rate. His xERA over the past month was 3.17 and on the year it’s 3.49. That’s nearly 1½-runs lower than his actual ERA. Cobb also has good control with 28 walks in 102 frames. We also like that the Rangers have just 19 career AB’s against Cobb and have managed just four hits (.211) against him while the Rays got to Harrison for 14 hits and six runs in five innings the last time they saw him in April of this year. Seattle -107 over MINNESOTA In 51 innings, Minnesota’s Sam Deduno has walked 37 while striking out 30. He’s constantly behind in counts and when you fall behind or walk that many hitters at this level, you basically have no chance for success. Deduno has walked five or more in three of his past four starts. In the lone game where he didn’t give that many free passes, he allowed 11 hits in five frames with no strikeouts. With the Twins in last place in their division, they can afford to send out guys that they can assess for next season. Why not? But pitching for a reeling Twins’ club that has dropped 12 of 14 and with his confidence and skills at a delicate level, Deduno is a pitcher to avoid. Jason Vargas will never be a dominant pitcher. He’s your classic soft-tossing lefty that will implode from time-to-time but he won’t walk many and he’ll usually give the M’s a decent chance to win. Vargas has 13 wins and 18 quality starts in 27 tries. The M’s are in much better form and they’ll face an erratic thrower that we’re comfortable fading at this cheap price. |
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