Tweet
Paul Leiner:
1500* CFB South Carolina -6.5
1500* CFB South Carolina -6.5
-
Lines2win
These guys started off smoking last season. Its a regular play
Vanderbilt +6.5 (2 Units) - Line continues to fall in favor of Vandy. Vandy returns with QB Rodgers, Aarons little brother, who played ok in the final 7 games last season after finally getting the starter job. Both teams will feature their stud running backs, but as always this game will be a defensive struggle. 6 points is a lot and if you ask me just too much. Vandy will be in the game all the way, because of the low scoring affair.
We handicapped CFU -24 and the over 57 in the UCLA game but for tonight we will just stick to the 1 game. Lets start off strong.Comment
-
OC Dooley
“1 UNIT” NFL SYSTEM TOTAL (Panthers at Steelers OVER 38 in a 7:05 eastern kickoff): Even though Pittsburgh has traditionally been viewed as a conservative squad that puts heavy emphasis on a solid running game and a physical defense, the Steelers are 3-0 OVER the total for the preseason due to the fact that they are putting up a whopping per-week average of 29 points per game. Tonight’s total has actually dropped from the opening offshore figure of 40’ points since most of the Pittsburgh regulars including star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger are slated to be watching from the sidelines. On the other side of the ledger Carolina star signal caller Cam Newton will most likely direct only one series before joining first-teams on the sideline. I will admit that the Panthers are coming off a low scoring 17-12 nationally televised Sunday Night contest but it was against a Jets offense that has yet to cross the goal line. The closing total for Carolina’s week-two preseason matchup ironically is the same figure we are looking at this evening (38) and the 23-17 final verdict did manage to slip ABOVE a deflated number. Carolina’s defense began the 2012 exhibition season getting scorched for 26 points and tonight they have to deal with an opponent who is coming off a resounding 38-7 blowout victory. That sets up a 71-PERCENT PRESEASON SYSTEM (36-15 since 1993) which plays home teams like Pittsburgh after beating the spread by 21+ points in a three game stretch OVER the total. Keep an eye out tonight for Pittsburgh reserve quarterback Byron Leftwich who has literally not played in two years due to several major injuries. After playing the entire second-half last weekend, Leftwich led the Steelers to a grand total of 24 pointsComment
-
Robert Ferringo
2.5-Unit Play. Take #969 Detroit (-115) over Kansas City
2-Unit Play. Take #957 San Francisco (-1.5, -110) over Houston
1-Unit Play. Take #960 L.A. Dodgers (-1.5, +105) over Arizona
0.5-Unit Play. Take #953 Milwaukee (-150) over Chicago Cubs
0.5-Unit Play. Take #966 Minnesota (-130) over Seattle
7*
Take 'Under' 9.0 (-105) Detroit at Kansas City (8 p.m., Thursday, Aug. 30)
Note: This is our American League Total of the Year and I think that there are several factors that have come together to make this an incredibly high value situation. I would also suggest waiting to put this play in. I think that this one could potentially move to 9.5, or at the very least the juice will get to +100.
Jeremy Guthrie has been a man without a country. He was overmatched as the Baltimore ace for years and finally got out this year. But he was sent to Colorado, pretty much the worst place any pitcher can end up. The results were predictable. But since coming to Kansas City in a quiet trade deadline deal Guthrie has been pretty solid. He posted four straight quality starts in August, posting a stretch of 23 straight scoreless innings. His ERA over the last month is just 2.56 and, most importantly, he has looked sharp. He stuff has nice break and he has been getting people out in the strike zone. Guthrie 28 strikeouts to just seven walks in his last five six starts and he has been settling in.
Now, Guthrie got lit up in his last start at Boston. But that was against one of his old bugaboos, Boston, and it was just a terrible start. However, I think that sets him up for a nice bounce back here. He's been great for a month, he got shelled, and now I think he will come back and be strong.
Rick Porcello has done some of the best work of his career against the Royals. He is 5-2 with a 4.16 ERA against them in his career and he gave up just three runs in eight innings against them back on May 1. Porcello is another guy who just looks like he is getting stronger as the season wears on. He has 27 strikeouts to just six walks in his last seven starts and control is never his issue. He has notched three of four quality starts and has a decent 4.03 ERA over the last two months and you pretty much know what you're going to get with him - six innings thrown and three runs allowed.
I'll take that out of Porcello today. I think that he is going to come out firing today and throw one of his best games of the year. Look at his last eight starts: Angels, Orioles, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Angels. Seven of those eight starts have come against teams in the Top 10 in scoring this year, and five of those eight starts have come against Top 5 offenses! So he has been solid and steady against the best of the best.
We also have, what you would call, a LOT of trends pointing to another low-scoring game between these two teams. The 'under' is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings and is 4-1 in the last five in Kansas City. The 'under' is 11-5 in Kansas City's last 16 games and the Detroit offense hasn't been sharp either, going 'under' in seven of their last eight games. The 'under' is 14-4 when the Tigers are a road favorite and it is 17-8-1 after a loss. The 'under' is also 9-3 when the Royals are a home underdog and is 18-7 after a K.C. win.
Further, Detroit has an enormous series with the White Sox on deck. They could definitely be looking ahead to that series and I wouldn't be stunned if they rested some regulars today to save up for that critical three-game set this weekend. Detroit really just wants to get this game in K.C. over with.
Finally, what really ramps this play up is the presence of Manny Gonzalez behind the plate. Gonzalez has one of the largest strike zones in baseball, and I think that is going to be a big benefit to both of the pitchers today. Neither starter walks a lot of guys to begin with. And they both can get good movement on their pitches when they are ?on?, which both of them have been over the last month. Hopefully we'll see a lot of called strikes and that will put the hitters into unfavorable counts and situations.
Carpe diem.Comment
-
Jeff Scott
TOP PLAYS
4 UNIT PLAY
7 Point Teaser--- Saints +11 & San Diego +9.5
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota/ Houston Under 37
Oakland/ Seattle Over 39.5
DETROIT -3.5 over Buffalo
7 Point Teaser--- Philadelphia/ Jets Under 44 & Oakland/ Seattle Over 32.5
OTHER PLAYS
2 UNIT PLAYS
Philadelphia/ Jets under 37
Kansas city -1.5 over GREEN BAY
7 Point Teaser--- Minnesota/ Houston Under 44 & Denver +9.5
I had a nice night last night Going 4-1 overall and 2-1 in my top plays.
NFLX Record Top Plays 18-22-1 (-5.8 Units) Other Plays 13-14-1 (-1.49 Units)Comment
Comment