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Teddy Covers
MLB: Oakland -1.5, +120
MLB: Oakland -1.5, +120
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Sports Wagers MLB
MILWAUKEE -1½ +145 over Pittsburgh
Don’t look now but the Brewers are just 7½ games out of a wild-card spot and with Pittsburgh and Atlanta laboring, the Brewers are not out of this thing quite yet. Milwaukee is also playing its best ball of the year with 10 wins in 12 games while averaging 6.3 runs per game over that span. The Brew Crew have won 13 of their past 15 games at home and this one sets up as good or better than any of them.
Since losing to Washington on July 26, Yovani Gallardo is 6-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 44 strikeouts in 42.2 frames. He’s pitched seven innings or more in all of those starts and Milwaukee has won each game. Gallardo is 5-0 with a 1.88 ERA in seven home starts against Pittsburgh and he struck out 14 Pirates on July 15. The guy is dealing it right now and it should come as no surprise, as he has always featured elite stuff.
The Pirates went 11-17 in August and have dropped the first two games of this series. James McDonald was one of the first half's great stories with a 2.44 ERA. Things haven’t been nearly as good in the second half. McDonald has a 4.73 road ERA. Over his last 18 innings, he’s walked nine batters and recently went through a stretch in which he walked 19 batters in 20 innings. The Pirates have lost five of his past seven starts. Another sign of fatigue is McDonald’s increasing fly-ball rate and accompanying HR/FB rate. McDonald is a tired and non-confident pitcher right now and we're loving it.
Our PickMILWAUKEE -1½ +145 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.90)
Minnesota +132 over KANSAS CITY
It’s baseball. 162 games in which anything can happen but one thing that remains constant are that certain teams and pitchers are too risky to spot significant juice with. The Royals, with Luis Mendoza on the mound, falls into that category. Mendoza is 7-9 in 19 starts with an ERA of 4.51. At home, he’s 3-4 with a 5.05 ERA. In 130 frames his BB/K ratio is poor at 50/77 and his 1.43 WHIP is troublesome. He’s also allowed 136 hits in 129 frames for a BAA of .275. Do you really want to spot a price with that guy?
Mendoza and the Royals are favored in this range because the Twins will send out relatively unknown Esmerling Vasquez. Vazquez is no stranger to the big leagues. He was with the D-Backs organization and appeared in 137 games, all in relief, from ‘09 to ’11. The Twins picked him up and after 57 innings of outstanding relief and converted him from reliever to starter. He pitched even better in the starting role, posting a 6-2 with a 2.25 ERA. In 52 innings as a starter, Vasquez allowed just 35 hits in 52 frames while whiffing 55. In his time with Arizona, he had a solid BAA of .247 and also had a good strikeout rate of 120 K’s in those 137 innings. Vazquez has swing and miss stuff.
The Twinkies have won seven of eight games versus the Royals this season and come into this one after sweeping a DH yesterday. All the momentum and confidence is on the side of the pooch and the tag just sweetens the deal.
Our PickMinnesota +132 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.64)Comment
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Wunderdog Sports
Game: San Diego at Colorado (3:10 PM Eastern)
Pick: Colorado -115 (moneyline)
Padres pitcher Casey Kelly was called up from Double-A San Antonio to make his major-league debut in Monday's series opener against the Braves. So this is the first road start for Kelly - and a tough park to pitch in. Coors Field has been good to Colorado, an offense ranked No. 6 in baseball in runs scored, No. 4 in batting average, No. 6 in on-base percentage and No. 3 in slugging. Good luck, kid! By contrast, San Diego has a terrible offense, No. 27 in runs scored and No. 21 in OBP. Colorado is playing well, on a 9-4 run as well as 10-4 in their last 14 games vs. a right-handed starter. Lefty Jeff Francis goes for the Rockies and has a 3.00 ERA over his last three starts and has already beaten San Diego this season (1-0 in two starts). Francis had one of his better starts this season in Monday's series opener against the Dodgers. He worked five scoreless innings, giving up just three hits while striking out six in the 10-0 win, so grab the home field. Play the Rockies.Comment
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Sports Wagers CFB 4-0 Yesterday
Kentucky +13 -105 over LOUISVILLE
The Cardinals come in ranked 25th in the nation and the favorites to win the Big East. With those high expectations and predictions comes an inflated line and one we fully intend to take advantage of.
Louisville is solid on both sides of the ball but this is a team that prides itself on defense, ball control and that rarely blows out anyone. They bring back most of their starters from a year ago in which they went just 7-6. They split their last four home games, losing to both Marshall and Pittsburgh, while barely getting by Rutgers (16-14). QB Teddy Bridgewater, who earned the Big East Freshman of the Year award, returns after passing for 2,129 yards and 14 touchdowns. However, he did it against a soft schedule and he also threw 12 picks.
Less than 80 miles separate these two schools so expect plenty of Wildcat support here. Kentucky is coming off another disappointing year but let’s not dismiss the fact that they play in a much tougher SEC conference that features the likes of Alabama, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas and LSU. Against some of the top ranked defenses in the nation, they labored but they’ll find the going against this Big East opponent more to their liking. Kentucky returns all of its best skilled players.
The Wildcats are sick of hearing about their poor defense. They have worked extensively over camp to get better and will come into this game with something to prove. The total for this game is 42. Louisville’s last nine home games have all resulted under the posted total. The Cardinals are a team that will continue to run the ball whether it’s working or not. Their style of play is not conducive to spotting big points and neither is this total. An outright upset would not surprise, making these points very appealing indeed.
Our PickKentucky +13 -105 (Risking 2.1 units - To Win: 2.00)Comment
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