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Re: 11-15-08
ASA
11/15/2008
11:00:00 AM Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4)
over NAVY MIDSHIPMEN
ASA - (this game is being played in Baltimore) - Notre Dame lost to Navy at home last year 46-44 in triple overtime, making it the first time in 44 years that Navy beat Notre Dame. Don’t think for one second that the Irish have forgotten about that. At 5-4, Notre Dame may not have the swagger that Irish teams have had in the past, but three of their four losses were on the road to good teams (Michigan State, North Carolina, Boston College) and an overtime loss at home to a good Pittsburgh team. We expect Charlie Weis to have his team ready for revenge against a talented Navy team.
Before last weeks 0-17 loss at the hand of Boston College, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was starting to look like a premiere College quarterback, he threw four interceptions against Boston College, squandering any chance of a win. We expect him to have a big day to redeem himself against Navy’s 105th ranked pass defense. Just last week, Navy gave up 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Temple!
In similar match-ups by both of these teams, they have both had a recent game against Pittsburgh; Navy lost their match-up at home with Pitt by 21 and was out-gained by 250 yards, whereas Notre Dame out-gained Pitt and lost in the fourth overtime 36-33. Notre Dame comes into this game under a lot of scrutiny after their shutout loss to BC and knowing that they lost to Navy for the first time in 44 years last year; now Charlie Weis has taken over play-calling duty for the offense and we expect an offensive explosion from the Irish. The road team in this series is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and we expect that trend to continue Saturday. Go with the Irish.
11/15/2008
2:00:00 PM SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES (-2)
over East Carolina Pirates
ASA - The Golden Eagles were struggling but turned the corner two weeks ago. They had lost 5 straight games going into their contest with UAB on November 1st. We had been keeping close eye on USM because they had been playing very competitive football but seemed to come up just short. In their 5 losses leading up to Nov. 1st four of them came by six points or less. We were waiting for them to break out and they did at home vs. UAB winning 70-14. In that game they racked up 610 total yards and really started to feel good about themselves. Last week, USM traveled to Central Florida and kept the momentum flowing winning that game 17-6 out gaining the Knights by 130 total yards. After two straight wins, they now have a bowl berth in their sites but they need to win out to accomplish that feat.
ECU continues to be one of the most over rated teams in the country in our opinion. They were the talk of the town early in the year beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia to open the season. Remember though, neither of those teams played well early in the season and neither is as good as initially thought. Thus, those wins were not as impressive as everyone thought. The Pirates last few games were less than impressive against two struggling Conference USA teams. Last week ECU played host to Marshall and barely squeaked by 19-16 in overtime. The week before they went to Central Florida and barely got out alive winning 13-10 also in OT. This team has been poor on the road this year with their only two wins coming @ Tulane and @ Central Florida. Those two teams have a combined 4-14 record and ECU had to score a TD with under 2:00 minutes remaining the game in both just to keep pace.
The Pirates are struggling on offense right now and that is not a good thing facing the 16th ranked offense in the country in Southern Miss. The Eagles will possibly be without RB Damien Fletcher for this one which is a blow, however he didn’t play last week and Southern Miss still put up nice offensive numbers. If Fletcher plays it’s a bonus, if not, USM should still get the cover at home. The Eagles main problem has been on the defensive side of the ball, however head coach Larry Fedora has been very pleased with the last few games and the practices leading up to those games. They have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined and now face an ECU offense that has not topped 20 points in three of their last four games.
USM is really starting to play well and we’re catching some nice value with them at home in this game. Lay the small number here.
11/15/2008
2:30:00 PM MARYLAND TERRAPINS (+3)
over North Carolina Tar Heels
ASA - We love this play with Maryland. The Terps are coming off a loss suffered at Virginia Tech on a Thursday night; Maryland isn’t a great road team and Virginia Tech was able to shut them down and get the 23-13 win. North Carolina is coming off a deceiving 28-7 win vs. Georgia Tech, where it was 7-0 before the Tar Heels scored 21 points in the 4th quarter. N.C. gave up 326 rushing yards to Georgia Tech (6.0 yard average) and was out-gained by 109 total yards, but benefited from 3 turnovers by the Yellow Jackets and squeaked out the win at home.
After playing on Thursday night, Maryland will benefit from the extra 2-3 days of rest, and they also get the luxury of playing at home where they are 5-0 this year (4-1 ATS). North Carolina has played five of their last seven games at home, and will almost be a full month since their last road game (loss @Virginia). Last week was a huge win for the Tar Heels; it was their homecoming, they beat a good Georgia Tech team, and it put them at the top of the ACC Coastal division. After this big weekend, we see a BIG let-down when N.C. travels to Maryland.
Maryland has been solid at home where they are 37-13 SU at home since 2000. North Carolina is almost the exact opposite, where they are 13-31 on the road since 2000. Just last year N.C. was 0-6 on the road. N.C. is 2-1 on the road this season, but a touchdown with just 46 seconds gave them the win @Miami even though they were out-gained and out-played.
North Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings visiting Maryland, and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Maryland is 4-1 vs. the Tar Heels under Head Coach Ralph Friedgen, with the one loss coming last year 16-13. This will be a revenge game for the Terps, and we expect Maryland to come out of the gates hot, and stay hot, to get the easy win at home vs. the Tar Heels.
ASA
11/15/2008
11:00:00 AM Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-4)
over NAVY MIDSHIPMEN
ASA - (this game is being played in Baltimore) - Notre Dame lost to Navy at home last year 46-44 in triple overtime, making it the first time in 44 years that Navy beat Notre Dame. Don’t think for one second that the Irish have forgotten about that. At 5-4, Notre Dame may not have the swagger that Irish teams have had in the past, but three of their four losses were on the road to good teams (Michigan State, North Carolina, Boston College) and an overtime loss at home to a good Pittsburgh team. We expect Charlie Weis to have his team ready for revenge against a talented Navy team.
Before last weeks 0-17 loss at the hand of Boston College, Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen was starting to look like a premiere College quarterback, he threw four interceptions against Boston College, squandering any chance of a win. We expect him to have a big day to redeem himself against Navy’s 105th ranked pass defense. Just last week, Navy gave up 340 yards passing and 3 touchdowns against Temple!
In similar match-ups by both of these teams, they have both had a recent game against Pittsburgh; Navy lost their match-up at home with Pitt by 21 and was out-gained by 250 yards, whereas Notre Dame out-gained Pitt and lost in the fourth overtime 36-33. Notre Dame comes into this game under a lot of scrutiny after their shutout loss to BC and knowing that they lost to Navy for the first time in 44 years last year; now Charlie Weis has taken over play-calling duty for the offense and we expect an offensive explosion from the Irish. The road team in this series is 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and we expect that trend to continue Saturday. Go with the Irish.
11/15/2008
2:00:00 PM SOUTHERN MISS GOLDEN EAGLES (-2)
over East Carolina Pirates
ASA - The Golden Eagles were struggling but turned the corner two weeks ago. They had lost 5 straight games going into their contest with UAB on November 1st. We had been keeping close eye on USM because they had been playing very competitive football but seemed to come up just short. In their 5 losses leading up to Nov. 1st four of them came by six points or less. We were waiting for them to break out and they did at home vs. UAB winning 70-14. In that game they racked up 610 total yards and really started to feel good about themselves. Last week, USM traveled to Central Florida and kept the momentum flowing winning that game 17-6 out gaining the Knights by 130 total yards. After two straight wins, they now have a bowl berth in their sites but they need to win out to accomplish that feat.
ECU continues to be one of the most over rated teams in the country in our opinion. They were the talk of the town early in the year beating Virginia Tech and West Virginia to open the season. Remember though, neither of those teams played well early in the season and neither is as good as initially thought. Thus, those wins were not as impressive as everyone thought. The Pirates last few games were less than impressive against two struggling Conference USA teams. Last week ECU played host to Marshall and barely squeaked by 19-16 in overtime. The week before they went to Central Florida and barely got out alive winning 13-10 also in OT. This team has been poor on the road this year with their only two wins coming @ Tulane and @ Central Florida. Those two teams have a combined 4-14 record and ECU had to score a TD with under 2:00 minutes remaining the game in both just to keep pace.
The Pirates are struggling on offense right now and that is not a good thing facing the 16th ranked offense in the country in Southern Miss. The Eagles will possibly be without RB Damien Fletcher for this one which is a blow, however he didn’t play last week and Southern Miss still put up nice offensive numbers. If Fletcher plays it’s a bonus, if not, USM should still get the cover at home. The Eagles main problem has been on the defensive side of the ball, however head coach Larry Fedora has been very pleased with the last few games and the practices leading up to those games. They have allowed just 20 points in their last two games combined and now face an ECU offense that has not topped 20 points in three of their last four games.
USM is really starting to play well and we’re catching some nice value with them at home in this game. Lay the small number here.
11/15/2008
2:30:00 PM MARYLAND TERRAPINS (+3)
over North Carolina Tar Heels
ASA - We love this play with Maryland. The Terps are coming off a loss suffered at Virginia Tech on a Thursday night; Maryland isn’t a great road team and Virginia Tech was able to shut them down and get the 23-13 win. North Carolina is coming off a deceiving 28-7 win vs. Georgia Tech, where it was 7-0 before the Tar Heels scored 21 points in the 4th quarter. N.C. gave up 326 rushing yards to Georgia Tech (6.0 yard average) and was out-gained by 109 total yards, but benefited from 3 turnovers by the Yellow Jackets and squeaked out the win at home.
After playing on Thursday night, Maryland will benefit from the extra 2-3 days of rest, and they also get the luxury of playing at home where they are 5-0 this year (4-1 ATS). North Carolina has played five of their last seven games at home, and will almost be a full month since their last road game (loss @Virginia). Last week was a huge win for the Tar Heels; it was their homecoming, they beat a good Georgia Tech team, and it put them at the top of the ACC Coastal division. After this big weekend, we see a BIG let-down when N.C. travels to Maryland.
Maryland has been solid at home where they are 37-13 SU at home since 2000. North Carolina is almost the exact opposite, where they are 13-31 on the road since 2000. Just last year N.C. was 0-6 on the road. N.C. is 2-1 on the road this season, but a touchdown with just 46 seconds gave them the win @Miami even though they were out-gained and out-played.
North Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings visiting Maryland, and just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings. Maryland is 4-1 vs. the Tar Heels under Head Coach Ralph Friedgen, with the one loss coming last year 16-13. This will be a revenge game for the Terps, and we expect Maryland to come out of the gates hot, and stay hot, to get the easy win at home vs. the Tar Heels.
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