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| Jack Jones 25* Rivalry GOY UTAH -7 (28-0 SYSTEM) 13-3 run in football top play's. 15*Nationals r/l -121 15*Braves +105 Free Play St Louis -135 |
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Sports Wagers MLB
Texas +102 over TAMPA BAY
After an emotional series against the Yanks, things don’t get easier for the Rays against the Rangers. Texas is batting .287 with an .845 OPS over the last two weeks and over that same stretch Ranger pitching has compiled a 3.31 ERA. Derek Holland is in fine form with an elite August that saw him put together an elite month in August in terms of skills. Both his groundball and strikeout rates were higher than any month. A 57% strand rate resulted in an inflated 4.73 ERA that month. Digging deeper, he's one tweak against RH bats away from becoming a top-tier starter. With a 63% groundball rate against lefties, Holland is so close.
Tampa Bay pitching is, of course, solid, and the Rays own a sparkling 2.89 ERA at home. However, Jeremy Hellickson continues to defy the odds. Everything about this guy screams mediocrity, including his low strikeout rate and average groundball rate of 40%. His 4.46 xERA is the real story and while his luck could hold up longer, we know for sure we’re going with the best of it by taking back a small tag with the better offense and pitcher.
Our PickTexas +102 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.04)
Late pick
Colorado +196 over PHILADELPHIA
The Phillies are not used to playing meaningless games in early September. They’ll go back to that here after back-to-back meaningful series against the Braves and Reds in which they won four of those six in the spoiler role. They’ll be no motivation against the Rockies.
Jeff Francis is usually avoided in this space because of his lackluster ERA (5.73) and the inning limit Colorado places on its pitchers. However, he's quietly posted a solid couple of months with an xERA of 3.49. , His 53%groundball rate is the highest of his career. A 34% hit rate and 63% strand rate have done him in but he makes for a sneaky good play against at Philly team that is just 7-14 at home against southpaws and that hits just .238 vs. LHPs.
Cliff Lee is good and W/L records are certainly misleading but how can one ignore the four wins Lee has in 24 starts this season. Some years a pitcher can’t catch a break and Lee is this year’s victim. With a take-back like this in a decent spot, the Rockies offer up some solid value.
Our Pick Colorado +196 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.92)Comment
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XpertPicks
NCAA Football
• * *Play Utah -7 over Utah State (TOP NCAA PLAY)---5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:00 PM EST FRIDAY
Utah has won 7 of the last 8 games when playing in the 1st month of
the season and they have also won 6 consecutive games coming off a win
by 17 points or more. *Utah has won 16 of the last 18 games vs. Utah
State and they have won 15 of the last 18 games as a favorite.
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• * *Play South Florida +1.5 over Nevada (TOP NCAA PLAY)---5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 3:30 PM EST SATURDAY
South Florida has won 10 of the last 12 non-conference games and they
have also won and covered the spread in 4 of the last 6 games as a
road underdog. *South Florida has won 7 of the last 9 games when
playing in the month of September and they have won 3 of the last 4
road games when the total posted is between 52.5 and 56 points.
• * *Play Florida +1 over Texas A&M (TOP NCAA PLAY)---5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 3:30 PM EST SATURDAY
Florida has won 9 consecutive games when playing in the month of
September and they have also won 9 of the last 11 games coming off an
UNDER the total. *Florida has won 6 of the last 9 games when the total
posted is between 49.5 and 56 points and they have covered the spread
in 7 of the last 11 road games as an underdog of seven points or less.
• * *Play Florida Atlantic +8.5 over Middle Tennessee State (TOP NCAA
PLAY)---5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 7:00 PM EST SATURDAY
Middle Tennessee State has lost 7 consecutive home games against the
spread and they have also lost 11 of the last 15 games against the
spread coming off a loss. *Middle Tennessee has lost 9 of the last 12
games against the spread when playing in the 1st half of the season
and they have lost 11 of the last 15 games against the spread as a
favorite.
• * *Play Missouri +2 over Georgia (TOP NCAA PLAY)---5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 7:45 PM EST SATURDAY
Georgia has lost 7 of the last 8 games against the spread when the
line posted is between +3 to -3 and they have lost 4 of the last 5
games against the spread when playing in the 1st two weeks of the
season. *Missouri has covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games
coming off a non-conference game and they have also covered the spread
in 5 of the last 6 games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in
their last game.
Play 5-Team Teaser (6-point)
Utah -1, Missouri +8, Florida +7, FAU +14.5, South Florida +7.5
Play 5-Team Round-Robin Parlay
Utah -7, Missouri +2, Florida +1, FAU +8.5, South Florida +1.5
Play 5-Team Parlay
Utah (moneyline), Missouri +3.5 (buy 1.5 points), Florida +3 (buy 2
points), South Florida +3.5 (buy 2 points), and FAU +10.5 (buy 2
points)Comment
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Dr. Ed Meyer MLB Money Line Fri, 09/07/12 - 10:15 PM
double-dime bet 965 LOS (+110) Americasbookie.com vs 966 SFG
Analysis
The Dodgers have lost their last two and they are 4-7 their last eleven and they were the favorite in all eleven. We like them as a dog in this spot.
San Francisco struggles when favored vs a team that has been losing, as they are 8-18 as a home favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last two games. In their last four - all from this season - the Giants have lost by scores of: 6-3, 5-3, 7-3 and 8-6.
Lincecum had a nice outing against the Cubs on the 1st of the month, winning 5-2 as a road favorite. This result, however, does not make the Giants a play-on team here; quite the contrary. San Francisco is 0-8 since the start of the 2011 season as a home favorite with Lincecum when they won his last start if he struck out fewer than eight batters. The Giants have been KILLED in this spot. See for yourself with this SDQL text:
starter=Tim Lincecum and HF and s:W and s:SSO<8 and season>=2011
Note that the Giants have NEVER led in their last five games in this spot and they a 180-plus favorite in three of the five. Their average margin of defeat has been 4.4 runs and Lincecum has produced one quality start in his last five appearances in this spot.
As a team the Dodgers are a very profitable 20-11 at night in the first game of a road series and 35-19 when they lost the last time they faced their opponent's starting pitcher.
As a team the Giants are a surprising worst-in-league 26-56 (31.7%) when their line is within 20 cents of pickem after a loss in which they allowed 12-plus hits. The Mariners are second worst at 39.0% winners.
As a road dog, the Dodgers can relax and swing away. This is a great spot to back LA.
MTi's FORECAST: LA Dodgers 7 San Francisco 3Comment
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