9-9-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 1
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-7, 45.5)

Steven Jackson vs. Lions run defense

Let’s face it - with Jackson the Rams have the semblance of an NFL offense. Without him at 100 percent it can get pretty ugly, especially since Sam Bradford completes less than 54 percent of his passes to a less-than-mediocre group of receivers. The Rams are just too limited and too inexperienced.

Detroit’s defense overall was mediocre last season (23rd overall, giving up 367 yards a game), but St. Louis is very one-dimensional.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7, 50)

Saints’ quick defense vs. Redskins QB Robert Griffin III

Tough opener here for the kid, who like Michael Vick, will succumb to the urge to flee the pocket when things get uncomfortable. The Saints will move heaven and earth to keep RG3 inside the hash marks and see how good he is at reading defenses.

One area of concern for New Orleans: Injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Middle linebacker Curtis Lofton (sprained ankle) insists he’ll be ready to go.

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans (+6.5, 47)

Titans QB Jake Locker vs. the Patriots pass rush

That’s right. New England’s pass rush. The Pats’ defense has undergone a makeover and instead of flooding the passing lanes with up to seven DBs and giving ground like the French in WWII, they will attack more with newcomers Chandler Jones and Don’t’a Hightower going after Jake Locker.

The Titans have turned the page at QB, sitting (for now) vet Matt Hasselbeck and moving to Locker, who has thrown all of 66 career passes and completed barely half of them. Locker has never thrown a pick and NE’s Kyle Arrington led the NFL with 11 INTs last year.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans (-11.5, 43)

Dolphins’ overall lack of talent vs. Houston’s playmakers

Will someone please take his talent to South Beach? The Dolphins are desperate for someone who can move the chains. The contrast between Houston’s mother lode of talent (Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster) and Miami’s talent-free roster will be on full display.

Plus, Houston’s defense (No. 2 last season, allowing 285.7 yards per game) gets to go against a rookie QB (Ryan Tannehill).

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Monthly money: Best and worst NFL bets in September
By MARC LAWRENCE

Handicapping NFL games in September can be tricky, especially for bettors have been anxiously waiting to place wagers on football after sweating out the dog days of summer.

Nonetheless, the London Olympics are in the books and the pig is in the air, meaning the sweltering days of summer will soon be history.

Let’s take a quick look at how teams in the NFL have fared during the opening month of September since 1990.

Listed below are the GOOD and BAD ATS (Against The Spread) September performers. Teams had to beat the spread 66.7 percent or more of the time, or lose to the spread 33.3 percent or less of the time, in order to qualify for the list.

All results were extracted from the 2012 PLAYBOOK Football Preview magazine.

SEPTEMBER GOOD MONTH PERFORMERS:

Dallas • 21-9 ATS as underdogs

The Cowboys are America’s team and almost always have enough talent to compete, if not win as often as their fans or oddsmakers think. Dallas is known for big plays and that is usually why they come through when catching points early in the season.

Kansas City • 22-10 ATS vs. division opponents

The Chiefs have long been known to focus their attention on AFC West encounters, both home and away. The rivalries in this division are about as fierce and full of hate as any in football and Kansas City has always made it their business to keep it personal.

Keep an Eye On:

Denver • 13-7 ATS as underdogs

The Broncos used to enjoy a tremendous home-field advantage, but have only had one winning regular season in Denver since 2006. They have been a much better wager when catching points.

SEPTEMBER BAD MONTH PERFORMERS:

Arizona • 10-21 ATS at home, 7-15 ATS when favored

The further Kurt Warner is removed from the Arizona franchise, the lower the Cardinals continue to sink. Even when the Redbirds had pretty good teams in recent years, they were slow out the gate, even at home.

Carolina • 7-14 ATS as favorites

John Fox was a successful head coach in Charlotte for the most part, but he was more known for how his teams closed the year than how they began them. Carolina has always been a far better road underdog than a favorite.

Cincinnati • 11-25 ATS at home, 10-20 ATS when favored

Bengals fans have been apathetic towards ownership, despite the team reaching the playoffs three times in the past seven seasons. The franchise averaged just over 49,000 patrons per game last season, last in the NFL. The days of the “The Jungle” are long gone and the Bengals’ home-field edge could bankrupt football bettors.

Cleveland • 2-5 ATS as favorites

When your talent level is in the lower 20 percent of the league, winning games is a problem. Positioning teams like this as favorites can be very profitable, as long as you are betting the other side. Cleveland does not deserve to be giving points to anybody at this juncture.

St. Louis • 13-26 ATS away

This is our second Kurt Warner reference, but it’s apparent what his impact was on two franchises after he departed. The Rams have assembled mediocre players for years and are clearly not capable of taking their act on the road in the first quarter of the season.

Keep An Eye On:

Chicago • 11-20 ATS as favorites

Previously, Chicago played more home games early in the season in order to have fewer cold-weather games in the northern part of the country. The Bears were often not equipped to handle being favored.

Oakland • 11-20 ATS vs. division opponents

The days of “Commitment to Excellence” with the Raiders went out like Al Davis’ leisure suits. AFC West rivals still derive pleasure from kicking Oakland’s posterior to this day.

Pittsburgh • 9-17 ATS as underdogs

The Steelers have been notorious slow starters, often peaking late in the season and taking a few early lumps since the Chuck Noll days in Pittsburgh.

St. Louis • 12-23 as favorites

Even when the Rams were the “Greatest Show on Turf” under Dick Vermeil, the St. Louis defense allowed too many points, making them a crummy choice as a favorite.

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NFL Prop Shop: Week 1's best prop plays
By SEAN MURPHY

The NFL Prop Shop is open for business again this year, and we'll be looking to improve on last season's 31-25-6 overall mark.

I'll break down four picks to click each and every week - it's up to you to shop around and find the best lines.

Here's a look at Week 1's prop shop foursome.

Most passing yards

Russell Wilson (Seattle Seahawks) vs. John Skelton (Arizona Cardinals)

John Skelton won the Cardinals’ starting QB job, but his hold on the position isn't all that strong.

Skelton had a less than impressive preseason, but was still a heck of a lot better than Kevin Kolb. That's not saying much. While Skelton will have the best player on the field at his disposal in Larry Fitzgerald, I'm not convinced he'll find many open passing lanes against an aggressive Seahawks defense. I really like what Seattle brings to the table in the secondary and fully expect Skelton to struggle throwing into tight coverage all day long.

Russell Wilson also won a starting QB job thanks to his play in the preseason. I still feel he's an undervalued commodity entering the new season.

Wilson won't be asked to do too much Sunday, but when the Seahawks do open things up in the passing game, I'm confident he'll be able to make some big throws to an underrated receiving corps, led by Sidney Rice.

Take: Wilson

Most rushing yards

Fred Jackson (Buffalo Bills) vs. Shonn Greene (New York Jets)

I don't think that Jets head coach Rex Ryan has ever had a lot of faith in Shonn Greene. As much as he would like to revert to the Jets ground-and-pound form of past years, I just don't see him giving Green that heavy of a workload.

Last year, Greene did run for over 1,000 yards but it took him over 250 carries to do so. His longest run over his three-year career has been for only 33 yards. The presence of Tim Tebow in the wildcat formation will likely steal away some of Greene's carries this season.

Fred Jackson was a force for the Bills before losing six games to injury last season. In only 10 games played, he managed to run for 934 yards - good for an impressive 5.5 yards per rush. With QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and the passing game less than a sure thing at this point, I expect Buffalo to lean heavily on Jackson against the Jets Sunday.

Jackson outrushed Green 82-76 in their lone matchup last season (Jackson missed the teams' second meeting due to injury).

Take: Jackson

Michael Turner (Atlanta Falcons) vs. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs)

After enjoying a breakout season in 2010, Jamaal Charles saw his 2011 campaign come to an end due to a knee-injury in Week 2. All indications are that he feels good and is ready to step back into the spotlight here in 2012, and I'll gladly back him in Week 1.

Charles will be the feature back for the Chiefs this year. Yes, Peyton Hillis will also see plenty of action, but I see this as a statement game for Charles. He's certainly the more electric of the two backs and I won't be surprised if he's able to bust out a long run against this Falcons defense.

Michael Turner is still the man in Atlanta, although there are rumblings that his workload will be reduced with speedster Jacquizz Rodgers likely stealing some of his thunder.

Turner is always going to be a load for any defense to handle, but I'm not convinced that he's the same type of game-breaker as Charles is at this stage of his career. While Turner will pound away for four quarters, Charles has the potential to take it to the house on any given play. That's the different in this matchup.

Take: Charles

Most pass receptions

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Eric Decker (Denver Broncos)

Give me the proven tandem of Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown over the new combo of Peyton Manning and Erick Decker Sunday night.

Brown was a breakout star in the Steelers offense a year ago and looks positioned to take another step forward in 2012. With Mike Wallace missing the entire preseason, it's tough to envision him playing a big role in Sunday's contest. Instead, look for Brown to be Big Ben's go-to guy, particularly in the short passing game.

There are high expectations on Eric Decker this season. He was a standout in his rookie year and that was with the likes of Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow throwing to him. He'll be aided by Peyton Manning's presence but I'm not expecting these two to be on the same page right out of the gate - at least not down to the letter. They made positive strides during the preseason but they'll be facing a much tougher task against a stingy Steelers defense.

Take: Brown

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Colin Cowherd's Blazing 5

Eagles (-8) at Browns
Redskins at Saints (-7)
49ers (+5) at Packers
Steelers (+1.5) at Broncos
Bills at Jets (-2.5)

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Stone Cold Lead Pipe Locks
Mike & Mike in the Morning on ESPN Radio

Mike Golic
New Orleans (-9)
San Francisco (+5)

Mike Greenburg
Houston (-12)
Green Bay (-5)

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SPORTS WAGERS/RANDALL the HANDLE - NFL

KANSAS CITY +3 -109 over Atlanta
The Chiefs won this division just two seasons ago before being decimated by injuries in 2011 in which RB Jamaal Charles was instantly lost along with TE Tony Moeaki. QB Matt Cassel missed seven games. KC’s offense couldn’t overcome such adversity and it was a season lost.
This is a fresh start. A slew of talented players return to KC’s roster, including a healthy Jamaal Charles, safety Eric Berry and TE Tony Moeaki. In addition, head coach, Romeo Crennel is there from the get go after replacing the uncompromising Todd Haley last year.
The Falcons have high expectations but they are best on fast home surface and have dropped three of past four away. They’ll also face a team that was very vanilla in the preseason and will now display its real game plans for this, a real game. The Chiefs are extremely dangerous as home underdogs with nine covers in past 11, including six straight when taking points here.

N.Y. JETS -3 +105 over Buffalo
The Jets were Super Bowl contenders not long ago but have since fallen back to the pack. A horrendous pre-season offensively (Bills weren’t much either) has really soured Jets supporters but we’re not exactly buying into it. Rex Ryan is sly enough to not show his hand just yet, especially with Tim Tebow’s non-QB athleticism at his disposal and an elite defense to keep opponents within striking distance.
The Bills are being touted by some but a poor secondary, and an offense that is void of impact players has us doubting. The Bills started last year on a very strong note with Ryan Fitzpatrick racking up multiple touchdown games but by midseason it all took a downward turn. The passing game no longer was as effective and by several accounts defenses had figured out the Bills. It certainly looked like it with the Bills 5-2 after seven games but only 1-8 the rest of the way.
The Jets have won seven of the last eight meetings. Buffalo was victorious in just one of six divisional games last year which included a pair of losses to this host. While there have been concerns voiced with New York’s offense coming into this season, we’d be more concerned with a Bills defense that is supposed to better but was torched all throughout the pre-season.

ARIZONA +125 over Seattle
Seattle fans are all amped up over rookie QB Russell Wilson after the youngster earned the starting job over recently acquired Matt Flynn. Calm down people. Wilson had tiny shoes to fill with the array of stiffs that have paraded through the northwest. We don’t see why the Seachickens should be a road favorite, in division, with a neophyte QB in his first game of regular season play.
The Cardinals have their own QB issues but they believe in John Skelton and they do have the best player on the field in WR Larry Fitzgerald. Let’s not ignore that Arizona won five of its final six games last year. Much of their late season success was attributed to a unheralded defence that started to gel and one that enters this campaign cohesively and with confidence.
Arizona went 6-2 at home a season ago and the home team in this series has won seven of the last 10 meetings and four of the last five. The Seahawks may be a team pointed in the right direction but they are being overvalued here due to a strong pre-season. Road games have long been an albatross or this franchise, which gives us a nice sell high opportunity. Cardinals straight up.

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GOODFELLA 3* NFL GOW :

BILLS +3 over jets


*released on monday

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NFLBettingPicks

2 UNIT = Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals - SEAHAWKS -1 (-122)
(Note: I'm risking 2.44 units to win 2.00 units)

The Seattle Seahawks started off the 2011 season going 1-3 with losses coming to tough teams in Pittsburgh, San Francisco, and Atlanta. After that the Seahawks managed to go 6-6 for the rest of the season, with some impressive victories against Baltimore, Philadelphia, and @Chicago. Other wins came against Arizona, St Louis x2 and Washington. The Seahawks other losses came against Cleveland, Cincinnati, Dallas, Washington, San Francisco and Arizona. Seattle had the leagues 9th best defense as far as yards against per game at 332 and were 7th in the NFL allowing just 19.7 points against per game. The offense on the other hand wasn't very good averaging 303 yards per game (28th) and 20.1 points per game (23rd). Seattle's problem was at quarterback with neither Tarvaris Jackson or Charlie Whitehurst performing to the level they needed to. The Seahawks addressed that issue by signing Matt Flynn out of Green Bay and drafting Russell Wilson in the 3rd round of this year's draft. Wilson outperformed Flynn in the preseason and was named the starting QB for the Seahawks, which was the right decision in my mind. With Wisconsin last season Wilson threw for 3175 yards with 33 TDs and just 4 INTs while adding 338 yards rushing and 6 TDs on the ground. In the deciding preseason game vs Kansas City Wilson went 13 for 19 for 185 yards and 2 TDs and added 58 yards on the ground. Running Back Marshawn Lynch is now questionable for Sunday's game, but even if he is out I still like Seattle to win on Sunday.

The Arizona Cardinals started off last season with a win versus Carolina at home, and then went on to lose 6 straight games to fall to 1-6. The Cardinals turned things around going 7-2 in their last 9 games to finish the year 8-8, but missing the playoffs. Wins came against Carolina, St Louis x2, Philadelphia, Dallas, San Francisco, Cleveland, and Seattle. While losses came against Washington, Seattle, NY Giants, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, San Francisco, Cincinnati. The Cardinals defense ranked 18th in the NFL allowing 355 yards against per game, while they ranked 16th giving up 21.8 points against per game. On offense they averaged 324 yards per game (19th) and averaged just 19.5 points per game (24th). John Skelton and Kevin Kolb split time at QB last year, but Skelton won the starting role despite a poor preseason. Skelton completed 56% of his passes this preseason for 1 TD and 2 INTs and a 50.6 QB Rating, which were better numbers than Kevin Kolb's. In 2011 Skelton completed just 54.9% of his passes for 1913 yards with 11 TDs and 14 INTs and a 68.9 QB Rating.

Seattle ranked 11th in the league in pass defense, and should make it tough on Skelton Sunday. For Arizona to have success they are going to need to have success running the ball with Beanie Wells, but that could be tough against Seattle's defense that was ranked 15th against the rush (note that the Cardinals were 24th in the league in rushing last year averaging 101 yards per game). Also take note that Arizona will be starting two offensive tackles that have never started an NFL game at those positions. These two teams split their two meetings last year (both 3 point victories by the home team), but this year I see the Seahawks much improved while the Cardinals will take a step backwards. Take Seattle to cover.

2 UNIT = Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans - TEXANS -12 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.04 units to win 2.00 units)

The Miami Dolphins started the season 0-7 before turning things around and finishing off the year winning 6 of their last 9 for a 6-10 record. Losses came against New England x2, Houston, Cleveland, San Diego, NY Jets, Denver, Dallas, Philadelphia. Their victories came against Kansas City, Washington, Buffalo x2, Oakland and NY Jets. The Dolphins were 2-6 on the road last year. The Dolphins ranked 15th in total defense allowing 345 yards against per game, and allowed just 19.6 points against per game (6th). Offensively the Dolphins ranked 22nd averaging 317 yards per game and scored just 20.6 points per game (20th). QB snaps were split between Matt Moore and Chad Henne last year, but they've handed the starting role over to rookie Ryan Tannehill who was their 8th overall pick in this year's draft. With Texas A&M last year he threw for 3744 yards with 29 TDs and 15 INTs completing 61.6 % of his passes. During the preseason Ryan Tannehill failed to really impress completing 52.6% of his passes for 1 TD and 1 INT (66.9 QB Rating), but that is expected out of a young quarterback. Factor in that the Dolphins skilled positions on offense aren't very good, and it looks like the Dolphins could start the season off poorly again this year.

The Houston Texans started the year off last year 10-3 before dropping the final three games to finish 10-6. The Texans had some key injuries on offense with QB Matt Shaub missing 6 games and star receiver Andre Johnson missing 9. Back up QB T.J. Yates helped the Texans win their first playoff game in the Wildcard round 31-10 at home versus the Bengals, but his inexperience showed in Baltimore where he threw 3 INTs in a 20-13 loss. Regular season wins for the Texans came against Indianapolis, Miami, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Jacksonville x2, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Atlanta ,and Cincinnati.With losses coming against New Orleans, Oakland, Baltimore, Carolina, Indianapolis, and Tennessee. Houston had 6 double digit wins on the season last year. Despite missing some key players the Texans offense ranked 13th averaging 372 yards per game, and 10th in the league averaging 23.8 points per game. Their defense was even better, which makes the future of this team look very good. Houston's defense ranked #2 in the NFL allowing just 285 yards against per game and just 17.4 points against per game (4th). Shaub was one of the better QBs in the league last year before getting injured, throwing for 2479 yards and completing 61% of his passes with 15 TDs and 6 INTs - good for a 96.8 QB Rating. Running Back Arian Foster was 5th in the league with 1224 rushing yards.

Take note that the Dolphins are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 Week 1 games, and 4-14-3 ATS in their last 21 games in September. The Texans are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. The Texans were double digit favorites twice last year and they "pushed" one of those winning by 10 against Jacksonville, and crushed Cleveland 30-12 to cover the 10.5 spread in the other. When healthy this Houston team is one of the best in the NFL, and are especially dangerous at home. Miami's offense should be below average this year, and will most likely have a lot of troubles in their first few games with a rookie quarterback seeing his first NFL action. Going against one of the league's best defenses I can't see Miami scoring many points and I like the Texans to win big in Week 1.

2 UNIT = Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Bucaneers - PANTHERS -2 (-109)
(Note: I'm risking 2.18 units to win 2.00 units)

Last year was the Cam Newton show for the Panthers and fans, as he helped them improve their record to 6-10 from 2-14 the year before. The Panthers started off 2-8 despite some great offensive performances, but then went on to win 4 of their last 6 games to finish the year off well. Wins came against Jacksonville, Washington, Indianapolis, Tampa Bay x2, and Houston. Amongst their losses was a 3 point loss to the then defending Super Bowl Champion Packers as 10.5 point underdogs, and a 3 point loss to New Orleans as 6.5 point underdogs that could have been a victory if not for a bad coaching decision (calling a timeout with 0:02 left in the half to stop the clock that resulted in a New Orleans field goal). Offensively the Panthers ranked 7th in the NFL with 389 yards per game on average, and they scored 25.4 points per game on average (5th). The problems for Carolina came defensively, as they ranked 28th in the league allowing 377 yards against per game, and gave up 26.8 points against per game (27th). Cam Newton threw for 4051 yards completing 60% of his passes with 21 TDs and 17 INTs for a 84.5 QB Rating. He also added 706 yards on the ground and 14 rushing TDs, breaking all kinds of rookie QB records. Overall the Panthers were 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 150.5 yards per game.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers would like to forget about their 2011 season. After a promising 4-2 start the Buccs went winless in their last 10 games to end the season with a 4-12 record. Their victories came against Minnesota on the road and then Atlanta, Indianapolis, and New Orleans at home. To give the Buccs credit, they did face some tough opponents playing 8 teams that made the playoffs. With that said the Buccaneers had the 30th ranked defense giving up 394 yards against per game, and 30.9 points per game (32nd). Their passing defense was ranked 21st, but their rushing defense was dead last ranked 32nd in the league giving up 156 yards against per game. Offensively the Buccaneers were 21st in the league averaging 319 yards per game, and scored just 17.9 points per game (27th). QB Josh Freeman will have to be better if the Buccaneers want to compete this year. Last year he completed 62.8% of his passes for 3592 yards but threw just 16 TDs compared to 22 INTs for a 74.6 QB Rating. Tampa Bay has named their 31st overall pick of this year's draft, Doug Martin, their starting Running Back.

These two teams met twice last season with Carolina winning 38-19 in Tampa Bay, and then following that up with a 48-16 home victory. In the first meeting Cam Newton threw for 204 yards and a touchdown while the Panthers rushed for 163 yards, and in the second meeting Newtown threw for 171 yards and 3 TDs while they added 270 yards on the ground. This Sunday it will be tough for the leagues worst rushing defense a year ago to slow down Carolina's ground game, and I like Cam Newton and the Panthers offense to control a lot of this game. I do think the Buccs will be better than they were last season, but I still don't see enough defensive improvements for them to keep up with a good offense like the Panthers have. Note that the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in these two teams last 7 meetings. I will take Carolina to win and cover in Tampa.

4 UNIT = St Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions - OVER 46.5 POINTS (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 4.12 units to win 4.00 units)

The St Louis Rams finished off 2011 with a 2-14 record after the team had to juggle between 3 QBs with rookie Sam Bradford starting just 10 games due to injury. The wins came at home vs New Orleans in a shocker 31-21 victory as 13.5 point underdogs, and a 13-12 win in Cleveland as 2.5 point underdogs. Not much can be said about the Rams stats offensively last year as they were 31st in the NFL with just 283 yards per game, and 12.1 points per game (32nd), but this is a new year and I think they will be much improved if Bradford can stay healthy. In this year's preseason Bradford completed 58.8% of his passes for 5 TDs and 0 INTs which was good for a 116.3 QB Rating. RB Steven Jackson rushed for 1145 yards last season (4.4 yards per carry) and should provide a balanced attack for the Rams. Defensively the Rams were 22nd in the NFL allowing 358 yards against per game, and allowed 25.4 points against per game (27th). Both of those numbers most likely would have been higher if they had kept games tighter, as offenses managed the clock more then run up the score after being up a few touchdowns.

The Detroit Lions got off to a great start last year winning their first 5 games, and finishing with a 10-6 record to make the playoffs. Regular season wins came against Tampa Bay, Kansas City, Minnesota x2, Dallas, Chicago, Denver, Carolina, Oakland, and San Diego. Unfortunately for the Lions they had a very tough meeting in New Orleans against the Saints in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and were beat 45-28 as 10.5 point underdogs. All in all a successful season for the Lions to make the playoffs and they look to head back again this year. The Lions were 5th in the NFL offensively averaging 396 yards per game, and scored 29.6 points per game on average (4th). Defensively the Lions were 23rd in the NFL averaging 367 yards per game, while allowing 24.2 points against per game (23rd). Matthew Stafford was impressive at QB last year throwing for 5038 yards completing 63.5% of his passes with 41 TDs and 16 INTs - good for a 97.2 QB Rating (leaving him behind only Rodgers, Brees, Brady, and Romo). Calvin Johnson was on the receiving end of a lot of those passes as he had 96 receptions for 1681 yards and 16 TDs.

Take note that the Lions averaged 30.4 points per game at home. Also note that in 5 of 6 of Detroit's losses they scored 19 or fewer points - if you take out those losses the Lions averaged 35.8 points per game in the other 11 games. The Detroit Lions had the 23rd ranked rush defense, while the Rams were 31st in the league. The Lions defense was 22nd against the pass, while the Rams were 7th (a number which is skewed because teams would stop throwing on them after leading by a few TDs - as is shown by the opponents 60.5% pass completion against their defense). This game features one of the best offenses in the game right now, and a St Louis offense that should be much improved from last season with Bradford healthy and a few more targets for him. We also see two sub par defenses that are ranked 23rd and 27th in points allowed per game. The OVER was 11-6 in the Lions games last season (including playoffs), and two of those games that went under the total actually had 48 points scored, which would be good enough for the OVER in this game with a total set at 46.5 (when I locked in my bet). For me everything is pointing to a high scoring game, and I will put 4 units on the OVER between the Rams and Lions this weekend for my only big 4 unit play of Week 1.

Let's Get It,*
Kevin
NFLBettingPicks

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Norm Hitzges

Double Plays

· Houston -12 vs Miami

· Green Bay -5.5 vs San Francisco


Single Plays

· Tennessee +5.5 vs New England

· Chicago -9.5 vs Indy

· Arizona +2.5 vs Seattle

· Detroit/St. Louis Over 45.5

· New Orleans -7 vs Washington

· Carolina -1 vs Tampa

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Pointwise Phones:

3* Houst, GBay, KC, Tenn

2* Chic, Detr

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Fargo Enforcer

Cardinals

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Sixth Sense

BEST BETS

YTD 0-0

3% TENNESSEE +5.5
3% HOUSTON –12
3% DETROIT –7.5
3% JACKSONVILLE/MINNESOTA UNDER 39.5
3% PITTSBURGH/DENVER OVER 44.5

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Prediction Machine
61.7% STL (PP)
59.7% NE (PP)
59.2% GB (PP)

58.8% PIT
58.5% ARI
57.6% WAS
57.4% IND

Monday
59% CIN (PP)

58.9% OAK

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THE GOLD SHEET
KEY RELEASES

N.Y. JETS by 13 over Buffalo
HOUSTON by 24 over Miami
OVER THE TOTAL in the Seattle-Arizona game