9-15-12

[Mr. IWS]

ALLEN EASTMAN / ACE-ACE

3-Unit Play. Take #169 Ball State (+2.5) over Indiana (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)
Indiana just lost its starting quarterback Tre Robinson to injury. This kid was the best player on the team and I don't think that they will be able to replace him right away. The Hoosiers have two wins but they both came over lowly teams like Indiana State and Massachusetts. Indiana only beat Indians State by seven points. Ball State beat Eastern Michigan easily and they scored 27 points against a good Clemson team. This Ball State offense is very potent and the Cardinals actually beat Indiana last year and in 2008. Ball State is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and Ball State is on a 7-1 ATS run going back to last season. They are a smaller school from the MAC playing a Big Ten opponent. This game means a lot to them and I think they will play well here. Take the points and look for Ball State to win this game outright.

3-Unit Play. Take #135 BYU (-4) over Utah (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is a big game for both of these teams. The Holy War is one of the best rivalries in college football and these two Utah-based teams hate each other. I like to throw out home field advantage in games like this since both teams are very familiar with each other. Utah beat BYU 54-10 on the road last year, for example. But that blowout win gives the visitors a big revenge angle in this game. BYU has won its first two games by blowout and they have looked very good going it. Utah lost to Utah State last week in overtime and that was an embarrassing loss. To make it worse the Utes lost their starting quarterback Jordan Wynn. They have several backups to use but none of them are as good as Wynn. That gives a big advantage to the Cougars. This spread started at BYU +1 but shot all the way up to them at -4. That is because of the injury and because of the sharp money coming in on the Cougars. Take BYU to avenge last year.

[Mr. IWS]

DOC SPORTS

5 Unit Play. (#42/#140) Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -9.5 over Virginia Cavaliers
(Saturday, 9/15, 3:30 pm ESPN U) Top College Game of the Weekend
The Yellow Jackets should be 2-0 on the season but did not make any plays down the stretch against Virginia Tech in their opener and, thus, need to take care of business the rest of the way in order to keep their championship hopes alive. This is always an important game for Al Groh (DC for Georgia Tech), as he was head coach at Virginia for nine seasons. The triple option is always tough to prepare for, especially when their opponent is coming off a hard-fought victory the week before. The Yellow Jackets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played during the month of September.

The Cavaliers are 2-0 on the season, but they are lucky to be in this position. Penn State totally outplayed them last week in Charlottesville, but the Nittany Lions missed 4 field goals and an extra point, allowing Virginia to win the game, 17-16. Virginia will have their hands full with this triple option and they did not perform well against it last year, giving up 477 yards on the ground (yet still won the game).

This is a series that has been dominated by the home team, and I do not see that changing this year. The home team is 14-3ATS, and that stat just cannot be ignored. Expect Georgia Tech to rack up big yardage on the ground and coast to a victory in Atlanta.
Georgia Tech by 21

4 Unit Play. (#22/#114) Take Purdue Boilermakers -24 over Eastern Michigan Eagles
(Saturday, 9/15, 12 pm Big Ten Network)
This is the best squad that Coach Danny Hope has had during his tenure, and I fully expect them to make some noise in the Leaders Division and challenge Wisconsin for the top spot. Purdue took a good Notre Dame team to the wire last weekend. I do not see a carryover effect this week, as they cannot afford to look past any opponent since they have not been very good the last couple of years. This is the first of four straight home games for Purdue, and I expect them to win at least three of these games. Purdue is 7-3 ATS (1 push) in their last 11 games against teams with a losing record.

The Eagles have yet to win a game this season and were blown out at home last week by a FCS team in Illinois State. This team has not been to a bowl game since 1987 and it will not be able to end that streak this year. They return a lot of experience on offense but lack quality. The Eagles are 0-46 on the road when playing against BCS conference teams. Eastern Michigan is 11-30 in their last 41 nonconference games.

In the past Purdue has not played well in their following game after playing the Irish but that tide will turn on Saturday. This is an inferior opponent and we will lay the wood, as EMU moves to 0-47 lifetime against current BCS teams in road games.
Purdue by 31

4 Unit Play. (#51/#107) Take Navy Midshipmen +7 over Penn State Nittany Lions
(Saturday, 9/15, 3:30 pm ABC)
Navy has not played a game in the United State this season and has had ample time to recover after playing their first and only game on Sept. 1 in Dublin, Ireland. The Midshipmen did not perform well against Notre Dame, but that was just not a good matchup for them. The Irish were strong in the front seven and weak in the secondary, but Navy does not pass well out of the triple-option attack. I expect them to find many more holes against this Penn State team on Saturday. Navy is 37-17 ATS in their last 54 road games.

Things do not appear to be getting better anytime soon in State College. Penn State is 0-2 on the season and they should have won both of those games. The fact remains that they lost most of their talent via free agency and QB Matt McGloin cannot beat teams through the air. That is Navy's weakness and I do not believe that Penn State will be able to exploit it. Things will not get any easier this week with WR Shawney Kersey not in the line-up. He has left the team for personal reasons. Penn State is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 nonconference games.

Penn State is not a good enough team to be laying points against anybody, let alone a solid team like Navy. When you face an academy, you know they will not give up and that they will play hard for the entire 60-minute game. Penn State just has no playmakers on offense and a quarterback that could not start at any other BCS school. Navy wins straight-up, and getting points is just icing on the cake.
Navy by 3

4 Unit Play. (#88/#164) Take Under 51 in Utah State Aggies @ Wisconsin Badgers
(Saturday, 9/15, 8 pm Big Ten Network)
The Badgers seem to be in a free fall and in full panic mode. Through two games they have not been able run the football, and because of this they have fired their offensive line coach. I expect Wisconsin to be determined to run the football, and that sets up a strong play with the under. The Badgers have gone under the posted total in six of their last eight nonconference games.

The Aggies are coming off an emotional victory against Utah last Friday night, and I do not think they will be able to rise up again for this game. Utah State has gone under the posted total 4 straight games, and if they have any chance of staying in this game, they will have to keep their defense off of the field and win the time of possession battle.

When the schedule was released earlier this season, most people in Wisconsin believed that this would be a cakewalk game and Utah State was just coming for the check. But things have changed and this may be a more competitive game that previously thought. Expect Wisconsin to try and establish the run to justify the coaching change and that will chew up the clock and allow this game to stay under the posted total.
Play the Under

4 Unit Play. (#94/#176) Take UCLA Bruins -17 over Houston Cougars
(Saturday, 9/15, 10:30 pm PAC-12 Network)
The Bruins appeared to make the right call with the coaching change, as Jim Mora has brought life into this program after it had been essentially dormant for over a decade. The Bruins are coming off an impressive victory against Nebraska last Saturday night and some may feel that this game sets up for a letdown, but I am not in this camp. The Bruins have motivation for this game since they lost to Houston last year and they have not forgotten about that. UCLA is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

Boy did Coach Kevin Sumlin jump ship at the right time! The Cougars are 0-2 this season, losing both games at home and have already fired their offensive coordinator. Houston still throws the football quite a bit, but that is not as effective against BCS Schools as they have the depth and speed that mid-majors just do not have. The Houston defense was bad last year despite a dynamic offense, and I do not see any improvement in 2012 as they have given up 86 points in two games. Houston is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 nonconference games.

Coach Jim Mora appears to have turned this team around, as UCLA always has talent but they have yet to play to their potential in recent years. UCLA returns 16 starters from last season, including nine players on defense. Expect them to keep rolling at home against an inferior opponent allowing us to cash in as well!
UCLA by 31

Strong Opinion Plays

#6/#106 Take UNLV Rebels +8.5 over Washington State Cougars (Friday, 9 pm ESPN)

#22/#114 Take Over 49.5 in Eastern Michigan Eagles @ Purdue Boilermakers (Saturday, 12 pm BTN)

#17/#167 Take Notre Dame Fighting Irish +5.5 over Michigan State Spartans (Saturday, 8 pm ABC)

[Mr. IWS]

ATS Lock

8 Unit Arizona St
8 Unit Northern Illinois
8 Unit Rice
2 Unit Round Robin Arizona St / Northern Illinois / Rice

[Mr. IWS]

VEGAS SPORTS INFORMER

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYS

6 Unit Play. #125 Take Over 56 ½ USC at Stanford (7:30p.m., Saturday, Sept 15 FOX)
(Total Play of the Month) Last week USC played Syracuse and when the 1st quarter ended it was 0-0. Then, USC scored 42 points and that game went over with the total being 62.5. USC has scored 91 points in their first 2-games and surprisingly the USC defense has given up an average of 19.5ppg. Why is that shocking? USC has played teams like Hawaii and Syracuse! Stanford should be able to score with the Trojans at home and I see both offenses moving the ball. USC wins this game and again USC pushes this game over and we cash our total play of the month. Stanford again gets this game at home and the Cardinals are 14-5 O/U in their last 19 home games. In the last 16 meetings between these two teams 13 of them have gone over and this trend continues Saturday night.

3 Unit Play. #135 Take BYU -4 over Utah (10:00p.m., Saturday, Sept 15 ESPN2)
Utah has been a weird team in the last couple of weeks. The Utes lost to Utah St on the road last week and now the Utes have announced that QB Jordan Wynn will be out all season. BYU has no worries that QB Riley Nelson has been a leader on the field and he will be the main reason why the Cougars win Saturday night. Yes we know this game is in Salt Lake City and the crowd will be loud and cheering for the Utes but breaking in a new QB against BYU will be tough and again the reason why BYU wins this game. Utah is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and the BYU Cougars are 6-1 ATS following a SU win.

2 Unit Play. #138 Take Louisville -3 over North Carolina (3:30p.m., Saturday, Sept 15 ABC)
Louisville looked really good against Kentucky and I was impressed with the Cardinals defense more than their offense. UNC is coming off a 1-point loss to Wake Forest which the Tar Heels were -10 point favorites so the Tar Heels still might be thinking about that and if they do, the Cardinals can jump on them quickly. Louisville wins this game by a touchdown and the Cardinals defense steps up again. North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and the Louisville Cardinals are 12-2 ATS against ACC teams.

[Mr. IWS]

JASON SHARPE

Saturday September 15th 2012-

CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year

7 Unit Play Take #168 Michigan State -6 over Notre Dame (8:00pm est):
These two programs are at different levels at this time. Michigan State has taken that next step as a football team and gone into the elite levels. Their opening week win over Boise State was much more dominate than the final score indicated. They came back the following week in a tough sandwich spot and laid the wood to a fired up Central Michigan. The Spartans have one of the best defense's in the nation outside the SEC conference and sports a strong running game also. They will be looking for some big time revenge here as they ran into a determined and focused Notre Dame team who embarrassed MSU by a 31-13 score last season. Though the score looks like the Spartans were easily beat in that game, they did out gain the Irish by almost 100 yards in the contest. The Spartans are one of the most underrated teams in the country as evidenced by their 6-1 record against the spread their last seven games and also the fact they are 13-3 against the number their last 16 games against teams with winning records.

On the other hand Notre Dame comes in having failed to cover their last five games against teams with winning records and like most every year, are an overrated football team. They are also just 2-5 ATS their last seven road games and 3-7 against the number their last ten games versus the Big Ten. The Irish go with a freshman quarterback who will playing his first true road game in this one. This won't be an easy spot here for a youngster as this game is also being played under the lights and in front of a national TV primetime audience.

Play Michigan State in this one.

4 Unit Play Take #134 Missouri -6.5 over Arizona St (7:00pm est):
This time of the season you have to walk that fine line between taking into consideration what you have seen so far and not overreacting to certain things also.

Very surprising all the love Missouri got last week from the betting markets playing Georgia and now nothing here this week. The Tigers played a solid game and went toe to toe with one of the top football teams in the country only to have things fall apart on them late in the game. They still out gained the Bulldogs in the game but were done in by a bad fourth quarter. Missouri is a very solid team, a half notch below the Georgia's of the CFB world but much higher than their opponent here in this one.

Arizona State has looked fantastic so far to start their season but a lot of that has had to do with a very favorable schedule to start their season. The Sun Devils have not only had the luxury of playing their first two games at home but played a FCS team in game one and ran into a deflated Illinois squad who was without their leader and starting quarterback who was out with an injury in game two. It was obvious from the onset tha the Illini didn't want anything to do with that game once they got behind.

Missouri has covered four of their last five games following loss and should be steamed and ready to play this one. Arizona State comes in off an emotional victory last week but this team is still a year or even two away from this type of football. Missouri would have been at least a 10 and maybe closer to a 14 point favorite if this game was played before last week's contest's. Take Missouri minus the points here.

4 Unit Play Take #184 'under' 50.5 Florida International/Central Florida (4:00pm est):
Both these teams have faced some high paced offense's thus far which has helped pushed their points scored and points allowed up but the reality is that these are two teams that play very good defense.

Florida International returns 10 defensive starters to a unit that was ranked near the top in Sun Belt Conference last season. They have been forced into some up tempo type games against Akron and Duke in their first two contests. The game against the Blue Devils was an odd one with lots of turnovers and even a touchdown scored by Duke off a blocked field goal attempt. FIU starts a new quarterback this season which has also caused some issues for the Golden Panthers early on. Look for this team to try and rely on their veteran defense here in this one. Plus seven of their last eight road games have gone 'under" coming into this one here.

Central Florida put up a strong fight last week to the mighty Ohio State University. They did a solid job for the most part holding an explosive Buckeye offense in check. They also were forced into a fast paced game against Akron in their contest against the Zips in week one. These two teams met up last year in mid-September and only 27 total points were scored in that game. UCF has played 29 'unders' to just 9 'overs' their last 38 non-conference games and 12 of their last 17 games overall have stayed below the total.

These two teams prefer a lower scoring kind of game. Play 'under' the total here.

3 Unit Play Take #138 Louisville -3 over North Carolina (3:30pm est):
These two teams look a lot alike but the big difference is that Louisville is in head coach Charlie Strong's third year at the school while North Carolina is a little behind as this is coach Larry Fedora's first season for UNC.

Louisville comes having covered 12 of their last 14 games against ACC opponents including a tough loss by seven points last year as a two touchdown underdog at North Carolina. The Cardinals have a ton of young talent that most folks felt was ready to have a big year this season and so far they have lived up to their press clippings. A lot of the talk started in the middle of last season as Louisville comes in having now covered eight of their last eleven contests. They looked liked they could have named the score in their week one win over Kentucky but coach Strong called off the dogs very early in that one but the Cardinals still managed to get the cover. Last week they won by 28 as a 35 point favorite over an FCS school.

North Carolina looked awesome in their first game of the season, hammering an undermanned Elon team by a 62-0 score but came back last week and couldn't hang on, losing by just one to Wake Forest on the road. The Tar Heels look to be dealing with a few minor bumps and bruises that can't help their cause here in this one. They have struggled a bit away from home of late, having covered just one of their last five road games and also one of their last five against Big East foes.

Just get the feeling that the Tar Heels are a notch or even two behind the Cardinals at this time. Nice value as North Carolina should be getting three if this game were at a neutral site but instead they are only getting three but in a game played in Louisville instead. Take Louisville here minus the points.

3 Unit Play Take #150 'under' 56 Western Michigan/Minnesota (12:00pm est):
The Minnesota Golden Gophers started to turn the corner last year as a football program under 1st year head coach Jerry Kill. The Gophers closed out the 2011 season easily playing their best football of the year and the main reason for their strong turnaround came from the defensive side of the football as the Gophers allowed six points less per game in their last five games. Coming into year two of the Kill program the Gophers were excited. In their opener they held UNLV to just 13 points during regulation time and pulled out a tough overtime victory. They came back last week and shut down a top FCS program in New Hampshire, holding them to only 7 points in the game.

Western Michigan comes in expected to be one of the favorites to win the Mid-American Conference this season. The Broncos really struggled in their week one loss to Illinois on the road, scoring just 7 points against an Illini defense that got destroyed the following week at Arizona State. Western Michigan typically plays two games against the Big Ten a year and they have stayed below today's total seven of the last eight times they have faced a team from the bigger conference. All these games fall under current head coach Bill Cubit who knows in order to beat teams from the Big Ten he can't get into a shootout with them. He shouldn't have to worry about that as Minnesota Coach Jeyy Kill doesn't want to play that style either.

Play "under' the total in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

ind cowboy
ok st over 73.5
comp play

[Mr. IWS]

INDIAN COWBOY

4-Unit Play. #122. Take Over 60.5 Texas A&M vs. Southern Methodist (Saturday @ 3:30pm est).
Southern Methodist will be thrilled to play this game and Texas A&M will be looking forward to put the 17-20 loss to Florid at home in a heartbreaker behind them. Texas A&M will look to get that potent offense going and should find it much easier to have breakout plays against Southern Methodist as compared to the Florida defense. Combine that with SMU being an active underdog in a public fade against a team favored by double-digit points on the road, and you have the opportunity for a competitive contest that likely goes over. This SMU team hung 24 on Baylor and as they come off a shutout themselves I look for their defense to have a bit of a let down here and consequently this game likely goes over. The Over is 5-2 for the Aggies following a straight up loss and the Over is 13-6 for the Mustangs following a straight up win of more than 20 points.

4-Unit Play. #155. Take Over 68 Ohio vs. Marshall (Saturday @ 6:30pm est).
This game has quietly gone unnoticed but if you want a great football game this very well could be it. Ohio crushed Marshall last year 44-7 and now Marshall looks to get revenge in their home turf. Ohio is a very good team that beat Penn State and most recently beat New Mexico State 51-24 and has covered their last four. In fact, I would take them to cover as an underdog if it wasn't for Marshall seeking huge revenge in this game. With Marshall scoring 34 against West Virginia which is tough to do, scoring 52 against Western Carolina and having revenge coming into this game I like this game to go over. Combine that with Ohio still being an active underdog as they are a solid team, don't be surprised if this game likely goes over with Marshall being an active underdog but Ohio holding its own as well. Sure, it's a lot of points, but bear in mind the Over is 8-2 for the Bobcats in their last 10 non-conference games and the Over is 4-1 for the Thundering Herd after winning their last game by 20 or more points.

4-Unit Play. #169. Take Over 64 Ball State vs. Indiana (Saturday @ 8pm est).
We're under the lights here as Ball State faces rival Indiana. It certainly doesn't seem like this to be an in-state rivalry but it's hard for Indiana to ignore Ball State considering Ball State beat this team Outright as a 4.5 underdog last year. Ball State is the same team that put up 27 on Clemson and 37 on Eastern Michigan as their offense is much better than they get credit for. Combine that with Indiana having revenge, coming off a big win against UMass to get their offense going and starting the season at 2-0 and seeking revenge, I like this game to likely go over the posted total. The Cardinals of Ball State are 7-0 to the Over following a straight up loss of more than 20 points and the Over is 7-1 for the Hoosiers following a straight up win more than 20 points.

CFL

4-Unit Play. #295. Take Over 47 Toronto vs. British Columbia (Saturday @ 7pm est).

[Mr. IWS]

STRIKE POINT SPORTS

NCAA Selections:

4-Unit Play. Take #138 Louisville (-3) over North Carolina (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Note: This is our NCAA Game of the Week.
I have always loved getting a Big East dog (or small favorite) over an ACC team. This Louisville team is much better than the North Carolina squad, but people just don't know it yet. Louisville is a young squad with a dynamic quarterback that the Tar Heels should have difficulty containing. I won with Louisville over North Carolina as a double-digit dog last season and will jump at the chance to take them again. The line on this game is 17-points different than last season as North Carolina was a 14-point favorite. This just proves how far this Cardinal team has come. Louisville's offense should be able to exploit a weak Carolina defense and the Cards should win this one by closer to 10 points than three. North Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus the Big East and 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Louisville meanwhile is 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games versus the ACC and 34-15 ATS in their last 49 non-conference games.

3-Unit Play. Take #160 Tennessee (-3) over Florida (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
This is the game where people begin to take notice of the Volunteers. Tennessee, now ranked, is favored over a higher-ranked Florida team for a reason. I really liked Tennessee coming into this season and I was waiting for the right time to jump on them. I was hoping this would be a small line, and the fact that Tennessee is favored makes it even better. The average bettor will jump at the fact that the Gators are dogs, but the sharp gambler knows the Vols are a better squad, and playing at home is a bonus. Many trends point to the Gators in this one, but that is based purely on the fact that past Florida squads were considerable better than the Tennessee squads that have struggled over the past few seasons. The Vols are getting solid play out of the quarterback position and Florida has looked less than stellar versus two teams that are not as good as Tennessee. This Vols team and their fans are primed to take years of frustrations out on the Florida Gators.

3-Unit Play. Take #168 Michigan St. (-6) over Notre Dame (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
And this is where we finally see the real Notre Dame. The Irish destroyed an awful Navy team and struggled with a Purdue team. Now they head to East Lansing and have to face a Michigan St. team that is (in my opinion) the best team in the Big 10. Notre Dame beat Michigan St. bad last season and Sparty is primed for revenge. This State team is better on both sides of the ball and they have looked outstanding thus far this season. Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a winning record and Michigan St. is 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS win. Michigan St. is also 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games versus a team with a winning record. The home crowd will be that extra motivation that the Spartans need to pull away late in this one. This game should be quite entertaining, and close for a while, but Michigan St. wins this one by 10+ with solid play in the fourth quarter. Lay the points in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

ROBERT FERRINGO

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

6-Unit Play. Take #135 BYU (-4) over Utah (10 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Note: This is our College Football Game of the Month and an Advantage Play.
This is a game where I would have been looking hard at the Cougars regardless of the circumstances. The Cougars were absolutely humiliated last season, 54-10, on their home field. That game shouldn't have been as big of a blowout as the final score indicated. BYU actually had the lead, 10-7, with less than a minute to go in the half. BYU turned the ball over seven times - SEVEN! - including a fumble in the end zone that Utah used for its first touchdown. BYU was only outgained by 127 yards in that game and they blew a bunch of early scoring chances. But things are different this year. Utah just suffered a terrible loss on the road to Utah State. That overtime loss not only took some of Utah's mojo away but it also took their quarterback, Jordan Wynn. That has left the Utes looking for a quarterback and they have been having a ?mini competition? this week to decide who will be under center. I think that Utah's negative momentum, their quarterback injury, and the huge revenge factor for BYU all sets up well for the road team here.
Beyond that, BYU is now on an 11-1 run with Riley Nelson under center. They pulled the trigger and went with Nelson at quarterback midway through last season and this team hasn't looked back. Now they have a Top 10 defense, which looked great while shutting down Washington State, and a hot hand at quarterback. The Cougars are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games, 4-0 ATS on the road, 7-1 ATS in nonconference games, and the road team is an outstanding 12-5 ATS in this series.
Over the last 20 years there have been only four instances where one of these teams beat the other by 20 or more points. Once was last year. In the other three instances the team that was blown out either came back and won the next year (in 1997 and 2009) or they lost (and covered) in OT (2005). I don't think that BYU is going to have any mercy on their rivals. Not after the way they were beaten down last year. I don't think that this game is going to be a blowout. But I do think that BYU will win by between 9-14 points and take the cash in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #143 Miami, OH (+21) over Boise State (4 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
It worries me a little bit that Boise State had two weeks to prepare for this game. But this is still a really young team and a group that needs game action to mature. They were completely outclassed by Michigan State and that game was a lot worse than the final score suggests. Boise also has a marquee Thursday night game against BYU on deck and I don't know that Miami, OH will get their juices flowing. Miami has a measure of revenge for a 48-0 loss out here back in 2009. And the Redhawks won't be afraid of the Smurf Turf; not after already having played a game at The Horseshoe. Miami lost by 46 at Ohio State but they were only outgained by 200 yards. Ohio State is much further ahead than Boise is right now so I think that the visitor can keep this one close. This team only lost by 11 at Missouri last year and only lost by six at Minnesota. In 2010 they lost by 22 at Florida. So I think that they can hang around in this one. Over 80 percent of the public betting on this is coming down on the Broncos. I guess old habits are hard to break. But until I see Boise lay the wood to some overmatched teams I won't hesitate to take the points against them.

2.5-Unit Play. Take #167 Notre Dame (+6) over Michigan State (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I know that a lot of people (roughly 74 percent of all bets on this game) are on Michigan State this week. And normally I am laughing all the way to the bank betting against perpetually overrated Notre Dame. However, I think that this situation lines up really well for them. To this point I have not been impressed with Michigan State. They bumbled their way to a win (no cover) against an overmatched and inexperienced Boise State team. Then they laid into a pathetic Central Michigan team that is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 games. Notre Dame throttled Navy and I don't begrudge them a close win over Purdue. That Boilermakers team is much better than people are giving it credit for. The fact is, Notre Dame hammered Michigan State last year. Yes, that game was at home. But Sparty's offense isn't nearly as good this year as it was last year. I think Notre Dame's defense is still very stout and I trust Brian Kelly's system on offense to get some points here. The road team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings and the Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Lansing. I don't like what I've seen from Andrew Maxwell to this point (he looks scared of contact) and if Notre Dame was starting Tommy Rees (man, I wish they were) then I would be calling for the outright upset. Seven of the last 10 meetings between these teams have been settled by a touchdown or less and four of the last seven meetings have been determined by just a field goal. I definitely think Notre Dame can win here. I will take the points and I expect another wild, wacky chapter to this rivalry.

2-Unit Play. Take #160 Tennessee (-3) over Florida (6 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I will bite here with the Vols. There are three main reasons why I will pull the trigger on this sort of square play. First, I think that Tyler Bray is one of the best and most underrated quarterbacks in the country. The guy has a huge arm and he is a true NFL prospect. I really think that he is everything that Matt Barkley is - maybe more. And people forget that the Vols season collapsed last year when they lost Bray and Justin Hunter. They are both back, they are both healthy, and they are both making plays. That gives Tennessee a huge advantage at the quarterback position and that is the main reason why I will make UT the play. The second reason is that this is just a bad spot for a shaky Florida team. The Gators struggled with Bowling Green at home. And they struggled with a weak A&M team. (I know College Station can be a tough environment, but A&M is not good.) This team is emotionally spent and Will Muschamp has a lot to prove. Tennessee, on the other hand, is ready to rock. They are at home and they have lost seven straight times to Florida. Last year they were at home and Chris Rainey earned 233 of their 347 total yards. Rainey is gone and this one is in Knoxville. Tennessee throttled N.C. State already this year and last year they hammered Cincinnati at home, and gave Georgia and South Carolina everything they could handle without Bray. The third reason is the line indicator. We have a lower ranked team favored over a higher ranked one. That, to me, is always a red flag. Derek Dooley and the Vols are desperate for a big win. I think they get it against a tired and shaky Florida team.

2-Unit Play. Take #151 Bowling Green (+3.5) over Toledo (7 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I think Bowling Green is ready to regain the Peace Pipe after two straight losses to their in-state rivals. I think there are a lot of things that working for the underdogs here. First, they have a huge advantage in experience. Bowling Green brought back 17 starters from last year's team compared to just 8 returning starters for Toledo. The Falcons also have that big revenge angle after losing two straight. And there is the fact that I think that Toledo is a bit overrated because of their early season performance. They lost at Arizona in overtime. But that was the Wildcats' first game under new coach Rich Rodriguez. Then Toledo beat overrated Wyoming last week. But the Cowboys lost star quarterback Brett Smith late in that game because of a questionable hit and concussion. Third, the line on this game has plummeted from an open of +7 to now +3.5. Bowling Green played Florida tough down in The Swamp (much more impressive than Toledo losing to Arizona) and they beat Idaho easily last week. They are focused in this game. And I think that they are the better team. Bowling Green is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and I think that they can buck the trend favoring the home team in this series because the Falcons are a sparkling 22-9-1 ATS in their last 32 road games.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #141 Alabama (-20) over Arkansas (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Arkansas is a disaster and I just don't see how they are going to score at all in this one. At all. Tyler Wilson is KO'd and even with Wilson (I wish he were playing) I think that Arkansas is going to get rocked. This Razorbacks offense lost way too much skill from last year. They had three wide receivers that made it to the NFL and you can't just replace that overnight. The offensive line is in shambles and Knile Davis isn't the guy that he was before he was hurt. This team just got rolled over by Louisiana-Monroe, their coach filed for bankruptcy, they lost their starting quarterback, and now they are hosting the best team in the country. That's just bad news all around. Nick Saban is a machine. He doesn't have compassion for a divisional rival. And if Arkansas couldn't stop UL-Monroe from running the ball all over the field I don't think that they will be able to handle the Crimson Tide. I think that Alabama is going to roll here and, in fact, I am irked that Arkansas lost last week and had their quarterback go down because I was hoping to get this line under/around 10.0. Regardless, I smell a blowout.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #119 Connecticut (-2.5) over Maryland (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
Jilted Connecticut hits the road here to take on a completely discombobulated Maryland team this weekend. This is somewhat of a revenge game for the Huskies since Terps coach Randy Edsall bailed on the Huskies rather unceremoniously two years ago. But in the coach vs. former team matchup you usually want to side with the former coach since he knows his players so well. But that's not necessarily the case here, as Edsall hasn't had a hand in the last two recruiting classes and didn't bring in the quarterback. Connecticut should've beaten N.C. State at home last week and the Wolfpack is a much better team than Maryland. The Terps won easily at Temple as 10-point underdogs, but Temple stinks. Both teams have their own share of offensive issues. But I just think that Connecticut is better than the hapless Terps. Go with the Big East team here.

1.5-Unit Play. Take #107 Navy (+7) over Penn State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)
I have no idea how Penn State is favored against any opponent right now. They were run over by a MAC school in Ohio in the opener and then they bumbled their way to another loss last week, missing four field goals and an extra point to a pretty mediocre Virginia team. Navy got demolished by Notre Dame in Ireland. But that game was two weeks ago and I think that they have had a lot of time to prepare for this game against Penn State. The Nittany Lions don't really score enough to be expected to blow a team out. Navy is back in its best role - underdog - and I think that they are just as motivated to show that their loss to the Irish was a fluke as Penn State is to get its first win. I can see this game being a one-score affair no matter who wins. But the bottom line is that this is too many points for Penn State to be laying and Navy is in its best role. The Middies are 37-17 ATS on the road and Penn State is just 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games overall. About 75 percent of the public is on the home team here so we will go on the other side.

This Week's Totals

1.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 56.0 Western Michigan at Minnesota (Noon, Saturday, Sept. 15)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 60.5 Texas A&M at SMU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 15)

Teasers
NOTE: These are 7-Point teasers. If you don't know how to play teasers or aren't comfortable playing teasers, there is more than enough other action to keep you occupied!

2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #140 Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Virginia (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #125 USC (-2) over Stanford (7:30 p.m.) AND

1.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #140 Georgia Tech (-2.5) over Virginia (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #176 UCLA (-10) over Houston (10:30 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #141 Alabama (-13) over Arkansas (3:30 p.m.) AND Take #167 Notre Dame (+13) over Michigan State (8 p.m.)

I also like a teaser on Virginia Tech-Mississippi this week.
I would play that for 1.0 Units.

[Mr. IWS]

JACK JONES (16-5 run)

25* sec goy TNN.-2.5
15*N. WESTRN -3
15*TX AM -13
15*N,DAME +6
f/p razr'backs +20.5

[Mr. IWS]

OCALSPORTS

Saturday College Football

(4) No Illinois -2.5 -120
(4) VA Tech -9.5 -120
(4) Ohio -6
(4) Arkansas +20
(4) Rice +21
(5) USC -8
(5) BYU -3 -130

[Mr. IWS]

ATS lock club
8 NIll
8 Ariz St
8 Rice
2 RR
6 UCLA
6 UL Laf

Totals
7 under VA Tech
6 over SMU
5 over USC
5 over Rice

[Mr. IWS]

VENO 20* boise over

[Mr. IWS]

alatex 20* mizzu

[Mr. IWS]

MLB TOTALS

1 Dime - Mississippi State -15