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kelso 100* miss rebels
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ASA
5* Over 50 points, Utah @ Arizona State, Saturday at 9 PM CST
Arizona State has really embraced new coach Todd Graham’s up tempo offense. This team can move the ball. The Devils are averaging 42 PPG and that includes last week’s stinker against Mizzou in which they scored 20. They had chances to put point on the board in that game but turned the ball over 4 times. Now they are back at home where they put up 63 points in their first game against Northern Arizona and 45 points against Illinois. The Illini have a VERY solid defense and they simply couldn’t stop ASU. To give you an idea, the Illini have allowed a TOTAL of 7 points in their other two games this season. Utah’s defense is decent but we don’t think they’ll slow down the Devils. BYU scored 21 points against this Utah defense and then turned around and scored 6 on Thursday night @ Boise (their only points coming late in the 4th quarter). On the flip side, BYU’s defense is VERY good this year and the Utes were able to put up 24 points in that game. BYU then held Boise to 0 offensive points on their home field a few days later (only Bronco TD came on an interception return). While we think ASU’s defense is OK, they haven’t really been tested. Two weeks ago they held Illinois to 14 points however the Illini played without their starting QB Nate Scheelhaase which really affected their offense. Last week Mizzou scored 24 points on this team again without their starting QB as James Franklin didn’t play for the Tigers. We have no doubt ASU will put points on the board here and Utah will do the same. This number seems quite low hovering around 49 or 50 so we grab the OVER in this game.
4* Over 54 points, Syracuse @ Minnesota, Saturday at 7 PM CST
Offensively the Gophers have been a solid and balanced. They are averaging 219 pass yards per game, 210 rush yards per game (429 YPG ranks 50th nationally), and 34 points per game. Starting QB Marqueis Gray suffered a high ankle sprain against Western Michigan last week and is expected to miss 2-4 weeks. Gray is a dynamic dual-threat quarterback that had seven of Minnesota’s 13 touchdowns so far this season. The good news for Minnesota is that backup quarterback Max Shortell played well relieving Gray on Saturday. He threw for 188 yards and 3 touchdowns against Western Michigan. The 6-foot-6 235-pound sophomore is much more of a pocket-passer and doesn't bring the same kind of threat with his legs that Gray does. Shortell could have a big game here against the Orangemen, who have allowed 10 touchdown passes through three games. Overall Syracuse ranks 97th in points allowed after allowing 42 points to each of its FBS opponents so far this season. On the offensive side, Syracuse put up 41 points against Northwestern, 29 points against USC, and 28 points against FCS Stony Brook. QB Ryan Nassib has looked great as he has tossed nine touchdowns and just three interceptions and is averaging 376 passing yards per game (5th nationally). Nassib and this Orange offense should be able to move the ball with consistency against the Gophers on Saturday. Minnesota’s defense isn’t as strong as its statistics indicate it is through three games. This unit ranks 23rd in yards allowed (293.3 per game), 15th in passing yards allowed (162.7 yards per game), and 40th in points allowed (19 per game). The main reason is that their schedule has been weak and they haven’t faced an elite offensive unit yet. They played 0-3 UNLV, FCS New Hampshire, and 1-2 Western Michigan. Syracuse is, by far, the best offense that Minnesota will face so far this season. All signs point to a high-scoring affair between the Gophers and Orange on Saturday. Take the OVER.
3* Florida State -14 over Clemson, Saturday at 7 PMComment
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Scott Rickenbach
Players CFB *10* Saturday on OVER in San Diego State on 22 September
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB *10* (TOP Play) OVER in San Jose State at San Diego State @ 8:00 PM ET – The San Jose State Spartans travel to take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the fourth game of the season for both teams. Both teams currently have identical 2-1 records on the season. San Jose State is scoring 34 points per game overall this year. San Diego State is scoring 34.3 points per game overall this year and a whopping 45.5 points per game at home this season. San Diego State is coming off a game where they beat North Dakota 49-41 scoring a combined 90 points. San Jose State passed for 429 yards in their last game against Colorado State while the San Diego State defense allowed North Dakota to 434 yards passing. The Over is 6-2 last 8 games when San Jose State is off a SU win. The Over is 4-1 last 5 games when San Jose State faces the Mountain West Conference. The Over has cashed four of the past five games when San Diego State is off a SU win. The Over is 6-1 last 7 games when San Diego State is at home against a team with a winning road record. This total is too low as we will see a ton of points scored in this game tonight. Play OVER in San Diego State as a *10* TOP Play selection Saturday
Players CFB *8* Saturday on OVER in TCU on 22 September
Scott "The Bulldog" Rickenbach CFB *8* (Regular Play) OVER in Virginia at TCU @ 12:00 PM ET – The Virginia Cavaliers travel to take on the TCU Horned Frogs early Saturday afternoon. Virginia comes in with a 2-1 record while TCU sits at 2-0 on the season. TCU is averaging 509 yards per game so far this year. Virginia is allowing 30.3 points per game overall this year and 56 points per game on the road this season. TCU is averaging 38 points per game overall this year and 56 points per game at home this season. TCU might get the Over themselves here today. The Over is 8-2 last 10 games when TCU faces a non-conference team. The Over is 10-4 last 14 games when Virginia faces a non-conference opponent. The Over is 9-4 last 13 games when Virginia is off a SU loss. The Over is 7-2 last 9 games when TCU plays at home. The Over is 5-2 last 7 games when TCU is off an ATS loss. This will be a high scoring game as Virginia can put up some big numbers too. Play OVER in TCU as a *8* Regular Play selection Saturday.
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Greg Shaker
357 LSU / 358 Auburn Over 48 Bookmaker.com
Analysis:
I am going to have a lot more to say about this game Saturday but not until tomorrow. I would NOT wait to get it as my number here is 55.1. That goes through 4 Key CFB Numbers and makes this 3% well above what the line is right now. We do know that the LSU Tigers have a solid Defense and that might make some of you think that Auburn will not score much. Hell, you might be right. But somebody is going to score BECAUSE of the Auburn Tiger offense. Maybe not their Tigers, but Tigers will score. The Auburn QB is a Big Play guy for sure. Sometimes NOT for his own team. Let's pla¤y this one now and I will have more coming Wednesday on this one as I am busily working the card for now..
You are going to have to forgive me for not getting back on Wednesday about more info on this play but sometimes after making a play I move well past it to find other value where is some. The Bottom Line for this contest is this. Auburn has plenty of offensive talent. However, their QB does not always use that properly. Sometimes he does but it is sporadic. I am more than confident that Auburn will have a big play or two Saturday. I am just as confident that LSU will get a big turnover or two as well, either creating points or setting them up. I do know that the LSU Tigers will score often verses the Auburn D..
399 South Alabama 34.5 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 400 Mississippi St Analysis:
So Mississippi State is the 23rd Best Team in the Country. Really? Wins over Jackson State, a squeaker over Troy last week, and they did beat Auburn at home. Auburn? Is Auburn that good? I am not going to over-think this one, and I am NOT betting against the Bulldogs because I am an Ole Mis Rebel Fan. I promise!! (wink) The fact is this number is simply too high for a number of reasons and mine is Miss State -27.2. That is a huge line difference but on line this large, not as significant However, it does warrent 2%. A popular thing for handicappers to say is "If you don't think a team can win outright, then you should not be¤t them." Hogwash! Mississippi State has Bigger Fish to Fry this year, including a couple of SEC Contests following this one. They are more than likely just going to Saute this Fish Saturday..
311 Clemson / 312 Florida St. Under 57.0 Bookmaker.com Analysis: We often get very good numbers verses what games clo¤se at but we may not here. That is due to the fact that this is a very high profile game and gamblers will want some action on something about this contest. That might very well be the OVER when Saturday betting begins. However, I am not taking the chance because I do like this one at the current number. With 56 being such a key number, it is best to grab the game now and the fact is, my number here is 52.3. That goes thru a number of key numbers. We saw what Clemson did verses an SEC Type Team. That was Auburn. They scored, but they struggled at times. And the fact is, Auburn is Nothing compared to FSU on the D Side of the field. NOBODY may be able to compare with them this year. These guys have had a weak schedule, but 3 points allowed in 3 games with anybody is pretty damn impressive and the press about this D prior to the season is panning out. In the meantime the Sems are going to pound the ball right down Clemson's throat. That's a clock eater. I am playing 2% here..
338 Colorado St. 13.0 (-110) Bookmaker.com vs 337 Utah St. Analysis:
Colorado State gets some very good news with the announcement that RB Chris Nwoke will be back in the lineup with his ankle improving greatly. The Rams rely on him quite a bit and his 1200+ Yards rushing last year will be a huge asset for us. I have Utah State in a poor situation for them after their Big Rival win over Utah, and their very physical loss last week at Wisconsin. I don't use the term "Letdown" very often but that is pretty much what we have here. They have not been a road fav often, but when they have, they have had Poor ATS Numbers and in fact they are 0-4 last 4 in this situation. I do have them winning here but only by 8.4 Points. Playing 2%.
387 Air Force / 388 UNLV Over 57.0 Bookmaker.com Analysis:
I do understand that you guys want to know WHY I bet a game and while I understand that, you have to understand this. This is what I do, and I am constantly checking betting lines, hitting some middles along the way, and grabbing other betting opportunities as well. That means that my time is always more limited than most people that might also have a Picking Service. In addition, I use Models that I try to keep under wrap, since leaking how they are developed, would keep us from getting the better betting lines. I am always going to have something to say about the games I tell you guys to bet, but sometimes you are just going to get my number, verses the Book's number and a brief explanation. That will especially be true on busy weeks like this one. I have 63.2 here with AF/UNLV and with that going into full detail, I will just say this. Both Teams will score Saturday and we also should have a closer game than the side line indicates. I am playing for 3%..Comment
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Sean Higgs
High Noon Assault
Play Title 5* West Virginia
Play Selected Point Spread: -25.5/-107
Taking WEST VIRGINIA here. Will lay this big number. I had West Va last year and they jumped out to a 27-10 lead at the half, only to hold on 37-31. Right off the bat, the Terps don't have that QB anymore. Also, we have Maryland in off a revenge win over Temple, plus an emotional game vs HC Randy Edsall's old team, Uconn. I can't see QB Perry Hills trading scores with Heisman hopeful Geno Smith. I know that WestVa will score their 45. I can't see the Terps reaching 20. 5* WEST VIRGINIA
CFB GAME of the MONTH
Play Title 10* Arkansas
Play Selected Point Spread: -8.5/-110
Taking ARKANSAS here. First, I know that Arkansas lost as a 30pt fave outright to UL Monroe. We had Monroe$. But let's be clear there. They were winning 21-7 (albeit not covering at the time) when they lost their Heisman hopeful QB Tyler Wilson. Let's be honest. I thought that was a look-ahead game to Alabama as it was. When you lose your signal caller, well the wheels can fall off, and they did. They promptly got rolled by 'Bama the next week. No big surprise as they probably have been prepping a game plan with Wilson, and when they lose him and a game outright, well you knew it was going to be ugly.. Now, Wilson has been cleared to play. The 'sky is falling' on the Razorbacks. This is the SEC people. With a week of practice, I think a red-shirt freshman can lead this team over Rutgers. This is Big East Football, not basketball. Rutgers does not have talent or depth to play in this game. Hell, this stadium is going to be a hornets nest Saturday night. I have to tell you I am shocked this line isn't double digits. Rutgers with a 3rd straight road game. Razorbacks being called out as quitters. With Wilson cleared to return, this game might get ugly fast for Rutgers. 10* ARKANSASComment
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College Football Prediction from Doc's Sports:
(#37/#345) Take Kansas Jayhawks +9.5 over Northern Illinois Huskies (Saturday, 9/22, 3:30 p.m. ESPN 3)
The Jayhawks have a new coach in Charlie Weis, and I expect this hire to pay major dividends as his tenure progresses. I just do not believe that a team from the MAC can lay this many points against a team from the Big 12. The Huskies are not a great MAC team; just an average team that lost a lot of talent on offense, including QB Chandler Harnish. Kansas won this game last year by three points and I expect this to be a high-scoring affair as well and a game that goes down to the wire. Northern Illinois is just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against Big 12 teams. Kansas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against MAC teams. Take the points in this one, as Kansas will win it straight up.Comment
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College Football Prediction From Strike Point Sports:
Take #371 Syracuse (+2) over Minnesota (8 p.m., Saturday, Sept. 22)
I really like what I have seen out of this Syracuse team thus far. They completely outplayed Northwestern in the first week of the season and in Week 2 they were down only five points late in the third quarter to USC. A typical Syracuse team would have come back home and lost to a difficult Stony Brook team, but “The Cuse” did what they needed to do to pull out the double-digit victory. Syracuse is a much better road dog play than they are a home squad. Syracuse is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games versus a team with a winning home record. For some reason the football team is not a solid bet when they are playing in front of their home fans. Minnesota, meanwhile, isn't the sort of team that will scare Syracuse. They have played quite a cupcake schedule thus far with wins over UNLV, New Hampshire, and Western Michigan. Up next for the Golden Gophers is a road game at Iowa that could have some of their players looking ahead. Minnesota will also be without their starting QB MarQueis Gray. Minnesota is completely overlooking this game as they are 3-0 thus far and going into Iowa with a chance to go 5-0 is definitely on their minds. Minnesota tends to take teams with losing records for granted, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five games versus teams with losing records. Take the dog in this one, as Syracuse will definitely put a huge damper on the Golden Gophers' bowl aspirations with an early-season loss.Comment
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