9-25-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Sports Wagers

SAN DIEGO +105 over Los Angeles
The Dodgers took two out of three over Cincinnati this past weekend but don’t put an ounce of weight on that, as the Reds clinched a playoff spot on Thursday and then clinched the division title on Saturday. Prior to that, this Dodger team has not won a series since taking two of three from the Fish back on August 24-26.

Prior to his trade to Los Angeles, Josh Beckett had reeled off five poor starts in a row. His surface stats since coming over have been better but his beneath the surface stats reveal nothing has changed. With L.A., Beckett is 0-2 on the road with a 4.66 ERA and a 4.22 xERA. In 26 games started this season, he has six wins. Between the Red Sox and Dodgers, Beckett’s teams have dropped six of his last eight starts.

The Padres have been playing good ball the entire second half. They’ve won 11 of their past 17 games and when Edinson Volquez is on his game, he’s as tough to hit as almost any pitcher in the game. The Padres have won his last three starts at Petco, where he’s 5-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 3.46 xERA. Volquez occasionally gets into trouble because of a lack of control but he usually overcomes it at this park because of his strong groundball profile (50%) and strikeout rate of 166 K’s in 172 frames. As a pooch at home, the Padres and Volquez offer up all the value in this one.
Our PickSAN DIEGO +105 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.10)

Toronto +181 over BALTIMORE
There are certain pitchers in this league that should not be in this price range and Joe Saunders is one of them. Saunders has a 2.10 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in four September starts but we’re buying into that about as much as we’re buying into NFL replacement refs. Saunders is prime example of luck outperforming skill. xERA and batted ball profile show he's the same guy that hasn't delivered acceptable command or dominance for four years running. Saunders has a 6.75 ERA at Camden Yards with a 5.20 xERA. Sell the surface ERA because he can implode at any time.

The Blue Jays were forecast to have a strong year. One injury after another derailed them in mid-May and they have not recovered since. Aside from Jose Bautista, they’re relatively healthy again and they’re dangerous in the spoiler’s role. Aaron Laffey is a risky proposition but he’s not the one laying close to 2-1. His 49% groundball rate this season is encouraging enough to take that risk but more than that, this one is all about taking back a ridiculous tag against Joe Saunders.
Our PickToronto +181 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.62)

Cleveland +183 over CHICAGO
Outside of a three-run shot by Adam Dunn in the eighth inning last night (his second dinger of the game), the White Sox have not been doing much hitting recently. Prior to yesterday, the Chisox had scored three runs or less in six straight. They’ve also lost five of their past six.

Francisco Liriano’s control problems have resurfaced. He’s walked 21 batters over his past 27 innings to raise his season total to 85 in 153 innings. When he’s not walking batters, he’s getting hit hard, suggesting that he has to be wild to have a chance. He's not a guy to be trusted right now, even vs. Tribe, in this price range.

Corey Kluber has quietly been an effective starter for Cleveland in this second half. His strikeout rate is solid, as are his control and groundball rate. His results (5.36 ERA, 1.59 WHIP) don't reflect the same optimism, but that's due to a 38% hit rate and exceptionally low 68% strand rate. Once those numbers normalize, Kluber’s surface stats will show a dramatic improvement. At this price and considering the foe, we’ll gladly take our chances that Kluber’s fortunes take a turn for the better.
Our PickCleveland +183 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 3.66)

[Mr. IWS]

Hoopsgooroo 9/25 956 Reds -145 @ 7:10p 957 Pirates -120 @ 7:10p 963 Dodgers -120 @ 10:05p

[Mr. IWS]

Indian Cowboy 4-Unit Play. St. Louis Over 8

[Mr. IWS]

Paul Leiner

100* Dodgers -120

50* Rockies -130

[Mr. IWS]

Info Plays

7* Colorado Rockies -125

[Mr. IWS]

Kevin
MLBPredictions

2 UNIT = St Louis Cardinals @ Houston Astros - UNDER 8 RUNS (+105)
Listed Pitchers: Garcia vs Harrell
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.10 units)

Like mentioned above the Cardinals took the first game of this series 6-1 last night. Tonight's starters will be Jaime Garcia and Lucas Harrell. Garcia is 5-7 on the season with a 4.25 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, and .294 opponents batting average. He does struggle on the road, but in his last road outing he went 6 innings giving up just 1 earned run and given that the Cardinals need wins to lock up a playoff spot and Houston is struggling to score runs I think he does just fine tonight. Harrell is 10-10 for the Astros with a 3.89 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and .255 opponents batting average. At home this season he is a solid 6-2 with a 2.26 ERA. Garcia faced the Astros last week in a 5-4 victory, while Harrell faced the Cardinals in the same series but lost 5-0 (played in St Louis). In their 4 recent meetings this month the UNDER is 3-1 with totals of 7, 9, 5, and 5. Take note that the UNDER is 5-2 in the Astros last 7 overall, 10-2-1 in their last 13 divisional games, and 3-1-2 in Harrell's last 6 starts overall. Houston has scored just 18 runs over their last 7 games (2.57 per game). With Harrell pitching great at home and the Astros struggling to put up runs overall I think we have a low scoring game tonight. Take the UNDER.

1 UNIT = Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves - BRAVES -1.5 (-120)
Listed Pitchers: Eovaldi vs Medlen
(Note: I'm risking 1.20 units to win 1.00 unit)

Atlanta enters this game with 22 more wins on the season than the Marlins at 88-65, and they are 43-32 at home compared to the Marlins who are 31-47 on the road. Miami has lost 4 straight games and 6 of their last 7, scoring just 7 runs over their last 4 games (1.75 runs per game). Atlanta has won two straight and 7 of 9, which includes taking two of three in Miami last week. Nathan Eovaldi is on the mound for Miami and he is 4-12 on the season with a 4.36 ERA. Kris Medlen is taking the rubber for Atlanta and he has been exceptional going 9-1 with a 1.51 on the season, and a stellar 8-0 with a 0.76 over his 10 starts. Over his last two outings he has pitched a combined 15 innings with just 1 earned run against and 19 strikeouts. Note that the Marlins are 19-40 in their last 59 vs a team with a winning record, 9-24 in their last 33 vs divisional opponents, and 0-6 in their last 6 road games. The Braves are 8-3 in their last 11 following a win, 37-14 in their last 52 vs divisional opponents and 20-8 in their last 28 home games. The Braves are also 24-2 in Medlen's last 26 starts and 11-0 in his last 11 home starts. Atlanta is 4-1 in their last 5 home games vs Miami. Take the Braves on the run line tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Handicappster

Phillies (3 UNITS)
Reds (3 UNITS)
Cardinals (4 UNITS)
TB/BOS UNDER 8 (5 UNITS)

[Mr. IWS]

Craig Davis

Tuesday's Action...


20 Dime Winner #13 of 19 goes this Tuesday night on the visting New York Yankees on the RUN LINE against the Minnesota Twins. At time I release this selection at 10:30 am eastern time the Yankees are -120 on the RUN LINE with Hughes and Vasquez as the listed starters both in Vegas and the offnore books.



Analysis

20 DIME - NEW YORK YANKEES - RUN LINE - (Hughes vs. Vasquez) -

[Mr. IWS]

Anthony Redd

Tuesday's Play

30 Dime selction on the Los Angeles Angels on the Run Line against the Seattle Mariners. As I release this play at 7:00 am Pacific in Vegas, the Angels Run Line is currently -110 in Vegas and offshore

[Mr. IWS]

Jeff Benton Tuesday's Action 30 Dime winner going out in baseball on St. Louis and Houston to play Over the total on the diamond tonight. At the time I release my selection on the Over, the total runs stands at 8o, -115 with Garcia and Harrell listed as the starters both here in Vegas and offshore at 9:30 am eastern. Both listed pitchnrs must start or the play is VOID.

[Mr. IWS]

Matt Rivers

Tuesday's Selection ...

For Tuesday night in baseball: 250,000♦ winner on the the visiting Milwaukee Brewers against the Cincinnati Reds. Fiers and Cueto are the listed pitchers, both must start or this selectinn is VOID. The price at 8:45 am eastern is Milwaukee +120 both in Vegas and the offshore books.

[Mr. IWS]

Al DeMarco - GM Tuesday's Play 10 dime play on the Rangers and Yu Darvish on the run line at home against Oakland and TOmmy Milone. Obviously specify both pitchers. Texas is +105 laying the 1 1/2 runs as of Midnight Pacific. TODAY'S NOTE Ended the betting week on a positive not at least with a 10 dime run line winnner on the Cardinals 6-1 at Houston last night. And after watching the Green Bay-Seattle game, a contest where I told you I thought the Packers would win when breaking it down on Monday's video report, you better believe I'm damn glad I stayed away from it considering how the Packers and those that bet on them were robbed while the NFL was embarrassed by its scab replacement officials. Staying on the diamond tonight for Baseball Winner # 18 of 22. It's also 10 dime winner # 9 of 12 overall as I seek winning day #29 of 48 with Run Line Winner #13 of 15 over the past two months.

[Mr. IWS]

Easy Baseball Betting

Padres (+106)
Blue Jays (+181)
Cubs (+120)
Phillies (-144)
Red Sox (+154)
Mariners (+221)
Mets (+106)
Royals (+179)
Athletics (+178)
Indians (+177)

[Mr. IWS]

From Platinum Plays 500K MLB Blowout St Louis Cardinals w/Garcia -155 over Houston Astros Best Bets San Diego Padres w/Volquez +105 over LA Dodgers Cincinnati Reds w/Cueto -140 over Milwaukee Brewers Chicago/Colorado Game Over Total Of 11 Runs Tampa Bay/Boston Game Under Total Of 8 Runs Premier Pick the Tampa Bay Rays w/Price -165 over the Boston Red Sox