9-29-12

[poopoo333]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[poopoo333]

Dr. Bob

I just released 2 more College Best Bets because I was afraid of the lines moving against us before tomorrow's final release and I didn't think there was a chance of Oregon going to -28 or of Arizona State going to +3.

Below is the analysis of the Best Bets that I've released so far. As always, make sure to pay attention to the line constraints if you didn't play the games at the time of release.
3 Star Best Bet
***NORTHERN ILL (-9.5) 40 Central Mich 19
29-Sep-2012 12:30PM Pacific
Both of these are capable offensively but Northern Illinois is vastly superior defensively and the Chippewas are due for a letdown after their upset win at Iowa. Central Michigan was actually out-played in that game to the tune of 394 yards at 5.7 yards per play to 432 yards at 8.3 yppl allowed to Iowa and the Chippewas’ defense has been horrible in all 3 of their games. Central Michigan started the season by allowing 5.1 yppl and 27 points to a horrible SE Missouri State offense that would average only 4.1 yppl against an average Division 1A defense. The Chippewas then gave up 6.4 yppl and 41 points to a struggling Michigan State offense that would average only 5.2 yppl against an average defense. Iowa’s offense was struggling too before last week’s 8.3 yppl against CMU and I still rate the Hawkeyes as a slightly worse than average offensive team. Northern Illinois has been better than average offensively with new quarterback Jordan Lynch at the controls. Lynch has averaged 7.6 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 7.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and he’s run for 460 yards on 59 running plays to lead a rushing attack that has been 0.2 yards per rushing play better than average (5.6 yprp against teams that would allow 5.4 yprp to an average team). Northern Illinois is 0.2 yppl better than average overall, but that’s the best offense that Central Michigan has faced this year and my math model projects 471 yards at 7.5 yppl for the Huskies in this game.

Central Michigan’s offense has been average overall in their 3 games, averaging 5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average 1A attack, but the Chippewas will have a tough time keeping up on the scoreboard against what has been a good Northern Illinois defense. The Huskies have yielded just 4.7 yppl in 4 games to teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team and even the 40 points that they allowed to Army was misleading given that they only gave up 5.6 yppl in that game. My math projects a modest 364 yards at 5.0 yppl for Central Michigan in this game.

Overall, the math model gives Northern Illinois a 61% chance to cover at -9 ½ (59% at -10 and 57% at -10 ½) but the Huskies chances of covering are enhanced by a likely letdown from the Chippewas based on last week’s upset win at Iowa. Central Michigan applies to a 4-30-1 ATS subset of a 41-96-5 ATS letdown situation and bad defensive teams coming off a high scoring wins are usually not reliable in their next game on the road. In fact, teams that have allowed 31 points or more in 2 or more consecutive games, but won their last game, are just 25-66-2 ATS on the road against a team that is also coming off a victory. Central Michigan actually applies to a 7-43 ATS subset of that angle and what’s amazing is that the 4-30-1 ATS situation and the 7-43 ATS situation have never applied to the same game, so they’re completely independent angles. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 3-Star Best Bet at -11 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -14 points.

3 Star Best Bet
***Arizona St. (+2.5) 33 CALIFORNIA 23
29-Sep-2012 1:00PM Pacific
As most of you probably know, I went to Cal and I’m a big Golden Bears’ fan. But, I’m also very realistic when it comes to the Bears. I thought they’d play well at Ohio State and they did and I wasn’t sure what to think going into last week’s game at USC. Each week I gather more information about every team and the one constant among these two teams is that Arizona State is a really good team. The Sun Devils have out-gained their 4 opponents by an average of 468 yards at 6.8 yards per play to 277 yards at 4.1 yppl and they’ve done so against a schedule of teams that’s only 0.3 yppl worse than average collectively.

Cal has been 0.1 yppl better than average offensively with starting quarterback Zach Maynard in the game and the Bears have been a surprisingly mediocre 0.3 yppl better than average defensively when their starting defense is on the field (I took out the poor stats that the backups allowed at the end of the Southern Utah game).

Arizona State’s multidimensional attack has only failed to rack up 500-plus yards once – on the road against Missouri’s really good defense and Cal is just not good enough defensively to stop that attack consistently. The Bears did a decent job defending Nevada in their opener (5.4 yppl allowed), but they surrendered 6.9 yppl at Ohio State and 6.6 yppl at USC last week. Arizona State’s offense has been better than both of those teams and the Sun Devils raised their attack to a higher level with the 512 yards at 6.9 yppl they gained last week against a pretty good Utah defense.

Cal has some weapons offensively at the skill positions, but the offensive line has been hit by injuries and has given up 16 sacks in 4 games. The Bears lost returning starter Dominic Galas to a season ending injury in August and their best offensive linemen, Matt Summers-Gavin has missed the last 3 games and teams are taking advantage by attacking the Bears with blitzes that aren’t being picked up. Cal has given up 13 sacks the last two weeks and Arizona State’s aggressive defensive style should create havoc in the Bears’ backfield even if Summers-Gavin returns this week (he’s listed as questionable). ASU has averaged 3.5 sacks per game and the Sun Devils have held 3 of their 4 opponents to under 4 yards per play while the other managed only 4.5 yppl. Cal will have to depend on big plays since I don’t think they’re too capable of moving the ball consistently against the Sun Devils.

I was planning on take Arizona State even when I thought they’d be a small favorite and I was surprised that they were installed as an underdog in this game. My math model gives ASU a 60% chance of covering at +2 ½ points and I’ll take Arizona State in a 3-Star Best Bet as an underdog in this game.

2 Star Best Bet
**AKRON (+4.0) 30 Miami Ohio 26
29-Sep-2012 11:00AM Pacific
Miami-Ohio is 0-4 ATS this season and the Redhawks still appear to be overrated - or Akron is still underrated even after covering their last 3 games. Let’s break this game down starting with Miami-Ohio’s offense. I threw out Akron’s 66-6 win over a Morgan State team that is at the bottom of the Division 1AA level, so the Zips’ stats are only against UCF, Florida International, and Tennessee. The Redhawks have averaged only 5.1 yards per play in their 4 games against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average offensive team and their -0.8 yppl offensive rating is a bit worse than Akron’s defensive rating of 0.6 yppl worse than average (6.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team). So, Akron has a 0.2 yppl advantage against Miami-Ohio’s offense.

There is no advantage for either team with the Akron has the ball, as the Zips have been 1.2 yppl worse than average offensively (4.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl) while the Redhawks have been 1.2 yppl worse than average defensively (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.0 yppl against an average defense).

Akron has a slight overall advantage on a yards per play basis and the Zips are projected to run a lot more plays than Miami-Ohio will but they’re also projected to turn the ball over a bit more because they will likely throw far more passes than Miami will. Overall, my math favors Akron by 4 ½ points and a compensated points model also favors the Zips by 4 ½ points. Akron has been the MAC’s worst team the last two years (just 2-22 straight up) but former Auburn head coach Terry Bowden has the Zips playing much better than expected and being tied 23-23 in the 3rd quarter at Tennessee last week should serve as a confidence boost for them this week. Miami-Ohio, meanwhile, was expected to challenge for the MAC crown this season but the Zips haven’t been quite as good offensively and their defense is much worse than last season, which could be the result of a change in defensive coordinators this season. It’s clear that the line on this game is still being influenced by how good/bad these teams were supposed to be and is not based on how these teams have played so far this season. I’ll look for Miami-Ohio to drop to 0-5 ATS and I’ll take Akron in a 2-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more.

2 Star Best Bet
**PURDUE (-15.5) 43 Marshall 19
29-Sep-2012 12:15PM Pacific
Purdue has covered the spread by double-digit margins in all 3 of their games and the Boilermakers still appear to be underrated. Purdue isn’t as good offensively as their stats suggest (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average team), as those numbers are skewed by the 7.9 yppl that they averaged two weeks ago against Eastern Michigan. However, Purdue has an average attack after adjusting for variance and that’s good enough against a Marshall defense that’s allowed 49 points per game on 571 yards at 6.8 yppl in their 3 games against Division 1A opposition, including giving up 647 yards at 7.0 yppl to a sub-par Rice offense last week. Marshall’s dreadfully bad run defense (284 yards at 6.5 yards per rushing play allowed in 3 1A games) is well suited for a Boilermakers’ offense that would like to establish the run. My math model projects 519 yards at 6.6 yppl for Purdue in this game, which should lead to 40 to 45 points.

Marshall does have a better than average offense that’s produced 543 yards at 5.9 yppl in 3 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. However, Purdue is good defensively against the run (4.3 yprp allowed to teams that would average 5.0 yprp) and very good defending the pass (4.9 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team), which is vital to stopping a Marshall attack that averages over 50 pass plays per game. Marshall will run a lot of plays with their hurry up offense, but my math model projects just 4.6 yppl and 397 total yards for the Thundering Herd.

My math model gives Purdue a solid 54.7% chance of covering and the Boilermakers apply to a 124-66 ATS home momentum situation while Marshall applies to a negative 102-193-4 ATS letdown situation that is based on last week’s high scoring win (a 54-51 overtime win at Rice). The combination of line value and the situations make the Boilermakers a solid play and I’ll take Purdue in a 2-Star Best Bet at-17 points or less and for 3-Stars at -14 or less.

2 Star Best Bet
**BOSTON COLLEGE (+10.0) 31 Clemson 34
29-Sep-2012 12:30PM Pacific
I went against Clemson last week because their defense is bad and I thought Florida State would roll over that unit at will while holding the Tigers’ good offense relatively in check. That’s exactly what happened, as Florida State racked up 670 yards at 9.1 yards per play while Clemson managed 426 at a modest 5.5 yppl. The 244 yards and 3.6 yppl difference was more than I had expected but Clemson managed to cover in their 12 point loss due to a late touchdown on 4th down that wouldn’t have even mattered if not for the good fortune of being +2 in fumbles and FSU’s kicker missing both field goal attempts. While losing that good bet was disappointing we have another opportunity to go against Clemson this week because people still think this team is good.

Clemson has averaged 6.3 yppl and they’ve allowed 6.5 yppl to a schedule of teams that is a combined 0.1 yppl better than average. That makes Clemson 0.1 yppl worse than average – although I actually have the Tigers rated a bit higher after only including the stats of their starters and the offensive numbers with star WR Sammy Watkins playing (he was suspended for the first two games). Clemson also runs more plays than their opponents because of their style of offense and quarterback Tajh Boyd doesn’t throw a lot of interceptions, so the Tigers are actually a better than average team when you put it all together. But, they’re not close to being the top-25 team that the public and media think they are.

Boston College has played 3 games and the Eagles have been better than their scores would suggest. Boston College opened the season with a really good performance against Miami-Florida, out-gaining the Hurricanes 543 yards at 6.5 yppl to 415 yards at 5.3 yppl but losing because they were -2 in fumbles. The 41 points that they allowed in that game is very misleading given the 5.3 yppl they allowed (to a good Miami offense) is lower than the national average of 5.6 yppl. After dominating Maine 34-3 the Eagles did play a poor game in a 13-22 loss to Northwestern but overall Boston College has averaged 5.7 yppl and allowed 4.7 yppl to 3 teams that are collectively 0.2 yppl worse than average – so they’ve been 0.8 yppl better than average in those games.

The Boston College defense has given up only 5.4 yppl to Miami and Northwestern, teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team, so the Eagles are capable of slowing down a Clemson attack that I rate at 1.3 yppl better than average with Watkins playing. That’s a pretty good 0.9 yppl advantage for the Clemson offense, but Boston College has been 0.3 yppl better than average offensively in their 2 games against Division 1A foes (5.9 yppl against Miami and NW defenses that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) while Clemson’s horrible defense has been 1.0 yppl worse than average in allowing 6.5 yppl to 4 teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team. So, the Boston College offense actually has a 1.3 yppl advantage over Clemson’s defense, which is bigger than the advantage that the Tigers have when they have the ball. And, it’s not as if Clemson’s bad defensive numbers were skewed too much by last week’s 9.1 yppl that they gave up to Florida State. That effort was 1.7 yppl worse than average since the Seminoles would average 7.4 yppl at home against an average Division 1A defense. Clemson’s game against Auburn was 0.9 yppl worse than average (5.8 yppl against a 4.9 yppl offense), their game against Ball State was 0.5 yppl worse than average (5.5 yppl against a 5.0 yppl offense), and they even allowed Division 1AA Furman to average 5.4 yppl, which is 0.9 yppl worse than average. Clemson’s median defensive rating is 0.9 yppl worse than average, which is not much different than their -1.0 yppl average rating.

Both teams should be able to move the ball pretty well here and my math model gives Boston College a 57.8% chance of covering at +10 points – based on the historical performance of my model. Clemson just doesn’t have the profile of a team that should be laying double-digits on the road. In fact, teams that allow 4.3 ypr or more (that’s the NCAA version, which includes sacks in rushing yards) and allows a higher ypr than they average on offense are just 54-108-3 ATS (from game 3 on), including 38-84-2 ATS in conference games. I can certainly understand how a team that can’t control the line of scrimmage would be a bad bet as a double-digit road favorite and Clemson is only 3-6 ATS after a loss the last two seasons. I’ll take Boston College in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.

2 Star Best Bet
**Oregon (-29.0) 52 WASHINGTON ST. 14
Seattle, WA
29-Sep-2012 7:30PM Pacific
This game is being played in Seattle and word is that Oregon fans will fill up about half of the seats, so I’m going to consider this a neutral site. Even if this game were being played in Pullman I’d still expect an Oregon romp. The fact that Washington State could blow a 17 point lead to lowly Colorado is a bad omen for the Cougars here. Oregon let up in a couple of their non-conference games after building huge leads, but Chip Kelly takes conference games more seriously and his Ducks are 17-8-1 ATS in conference games when not favored by 35 points or more. Oregon also applies to a 97-39-1 ATS huge favorite momentum situation (the Ducks are 5-2 ATS when they apply) and the Ducks also apply to a 120-48-1 ATS situation that is based on shutting out Arizona last week. Last week’s results, with Oregon shutting out Arizona 49-0 and Washington State losing straight up as a big favorite are very telling, as teams that won by 30 points or more in as shutout the previous week are 41-9 ATS as favorites against a team that lost straight up as a favorite the previous week. You might remember Alabama’s 52-0 win over Arkansas, after Arkansas lost to UL Monroe, as an example of how that trend works.

The fact that Oregon could shut out Arizona’s attack and hold the Wildcats to under 4.0 yards per play indicates that they can certainly dominate a sub-par Washington State offense (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team) that averaged only 3.7 and scored just 6 points against BYU – the only other good defensive team that the Cougars have faced. Oregon has scored 42 points or more in all 4 of their games despite 2 of those being against better than average defensive teams Fresno State and Arizona and the Ducks won’t be challenged at all by a Washington State defense that ha that has given up an average of 472 yards at 5.9 yppl to a collection of bad offensive teams that would combine to average only 4.7 yppl against an average defensive team.

My math model projects a 43 point win for Oregon if I only used the stats of their starting units and I get the Ducks by 38 ½ points even with the backups expected to get some time – although Kelly didn’t put in his subs last week until the very end of their 49-0 win. The situation favors the huge favorite in this game and the math agrees. I’ll take Oregon in a 2-Star Best Bet at -31 points or less and for 3-Stars at -28 or less.

[poopoo333]

Ness Legend- Arizona

[poopoo333]

BEN BURNS

10* Saturday Afternoon PERSONAL FAVORITE!

California-2

[Mr. IWS]

Wayne Root

ACC Game of the Year
Pinnacle
Boston College (+7) over Clemson

No Limit
So Florida (+17) over Florida State

Billionaire
Fresno State (-7) over San Diego St

[Mr. IWS]

Lang 50 dime OHIO STATE