9-30-12

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We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

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NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 4
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 4:

San Francisco 49ers at New York Jets (+4, 49.5)

Niners vs. Jet lag

At Green Bay, at Minnesota and now at the Jets. The Niners are spending the first month of the season in a migratory pattern east of the Mississippi before the schedule becomes more home-friendly in October.

In fact, they’ve traveled so much that the team is spending this week in Ohio to avoid two cross-country trips. It’ll be interesting to see if San Francisco adjusts its game plan and gets the ball in the air to see how quickly the Jets have adjusted to Darrelle Revis’ absence.

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+4, 52)

Tom Brady vs. Buffalo defense

The Bills were supposed to step it up significantly on defense this season, but they are barely mediocre after three games against so-so offenses (Jets, Chiefs, Browns). In New England, there are questions for the first time about whether Brady is regressing.

Things aren’t there yet with WR Brandon Lloyd, Wes Welker’s role has been down-sized and several drives have been killed by negative-yardage plays. Brady needs to air it out a bit to unclog the line of scrimmage.

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-9, 54)

New Orleans vs. Befuddled Packer organization

How can the Packers begin to think about looking ahead as they deal day after day with last Monday night’s debacle? Green Bay should be spending this week trying to figure out how to repair the offensive line, which allowed eight sacks in the bizarre loss to Seattle.

The Saints have plenty of issues of their own, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But as they say, out of chaos comes opportunity and the Saints have a good shot at righting their ship against the Packers.

Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+2.5, 38.5)

Seahawks defense vs. Rams’ lost running attack

Steven Jackson has been battling a groin injury and was limited to 11 carries in the Rams’ loss to the Bears. Not surprisingly, St. Louis had a grand total of zero touchdowns in that game.

Seattle has (statistically) the fourth-best defense in the league. It doesn’t look good for the Rams, who have the crap luck of being better but also competing in a division in which everyone else is also improved.

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Early NFL upsets a mint for moneyline bettors
By DOC'S SPORTS

Through the first two weeks of the NFL regular season, the underdogs provided a slightly better return than the favorites against the spread, but it was nothing to get too excited about.

That all changed in Week 3. Including Seattle’s highly-questionable win over Green Bay Monday night, the underdogs covered the spread in 11 of the 16 games and nine of those games were SU upsets.

If you decided to put one unit on the underdog in all 16 of those games, you would have walked away with a nice little return of $550 for the week betting with the spread. However, the real money to be made in Week 3 was on the moneyline.

While the average person that wagers on the NFL tends to stick with the spreads as their primary form of betting, it is weeks like this that make you realize the value that a moneyline bet can sometimes offer.

If you would have been clairvoyant enough to know which of the dogs were going to win their games outright, a one-unit bet on the moneyline on all nine of those games would have returned $1,665.

The amazing thing about last week’s results were that even if you placed that same one-unit on the moneyline for all 16 underdogs on the slate, you still would have cleared $965 for the week.

The highest moneyline payout for any of the games in the first three weeks of the season was +600 on Arizona’s shocking upset of New England in Week 2. In fact, if you would have made a one-unit bet on the moneyline for the surprising 3-0 Cardinals in their first three games this season, you would be up $895 right now.

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NFL injuries bettors should watch in Week 4
By LARRY JOSEPHSON

The Bills know that beating the Patriots, even at home, requires keeping the offensive engine tuned up. That’s why all eyes are on running Fred Jackson this week as he tries to return from knee injuries suffered in Week 1 of the season.

"From the workout and the rehab (Monday) morning, it went extremely well,” Bills coach Chan Gailey told the Buffalo News. “It looks like he's going to practice Wednesday and we'll see how he feels during the course of the week. I'm very optimistic."

Having Jackson on board might help push money towards the Bills, who have held at +4 (52) midweek. Getting him back for Week 4 is especially imperative after backup C.J. Spiller suffered a shoulder injury last week, after two solid outings, and will miss the next few weeks recovering.

Here are other injuries that could push lines either way in Week 4:

Jacob Tamme, Denver Broncos TE

Peyton Manning is having a tough time getting rolling and not having one of his familiar go-to guys in the lineup at 100 percent wouldn’t help. Tamme is listed as probable, but could be slowed by a groin injury when Denver is home against the Raiders (Broncos -6.5, 47.5) Sunday.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions QB

Stafford was actually hurt (hip) playing defense after the Lions lost a fumble and at mid-week the team is uncertain if he’ll go vs. Minnesota. Shaun Hill actually got late snaps in Detroit’s wild 44-41 loss to Tennessee, but Hill isn’t the long-term answer. Detroit is -7 (45.5) at home against the Vikings.

Darrelle Revis, New York Jets CB

Revis is perhaps the only defensive player in the league who can bump a line one way or the other, and oddsmakers have the Jets at +4 against the Niners at home this week in what probably would have been a field-goal game with him in the lineup.

Reggie Bush, Miami Dolphins RB

Speaking of Revis, Bush threw salt on the wound with his comments on a radio show this week, saying “What goes around comes around” when asked about the Jets shutdown corner. Bush is dealing with his own ailment and is currently listed as questionable against the Cardinals (Arizona -6) Sunday. The running back is very important to the Fins attack, especially with the roster thin on playmakers.

Matt Forte, Chicago Bears RB

The Bears have a huge Monday night meeting with the Cowboys (Dallas -3.5) and may not have their top offensive weapon in the holster. Forte is listed as doubtful due to a sprained ankle and Chicago is scrambling for options at RB. Former Packers RB Ryan Grant looked like an option but took a job with the Redskins. Jacob Hester, Steve Slaton and DuJuan Harris have all tried out for the Bears empty RB position.

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DCI NFL

Week
Straight Up: 1-0 (1.000)
ATS: 0-1 (.000)
ATS Vary Units: 0-10 (.000)
Over/Under: 1-0 (1.000)
Over/Under Vary Units: 7-0 (1.000)

Season
Straight Up: 26-21 (.553)
ATS: 22-26 (.458)
ATS Vary Units: 98-179 (.354)
Over/Under: 26-21 (.553)
Over/Under Vary Units: 106-98 (.520)

Sunday, September 30, 2012
ATLANTA 33, Carolina 18
New England 35, BUFFALO 24
DETROIT 35, Minnesota 28
San Diego 23, KANSAS CITY 17
Seattle 23, ST. LOUIS 12
San Francisco vs. N.Y. JETS: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
HOUSTON 28, Tennessee 16
ARIZONA 25, Miami 12
Cincinnati 22, JACKSONVILLE 20
DENVER 28, Oakland 25
GREEN BAY 38, New Orleans 31
TAMPA BAY 29, Washington 26
N.Y. Giants 25, PHILADELPHIA 20

Monday, October 1, 2012
Chicago 21, DALLAS 17

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Colin Cowherd Blazing Five, ESPN Personality. Usually about as good or better than any service:

Redskins +1-
Packers -7-
Patriots -4
Raiders +7
49ers -4-

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NFL Predictions

Kevin

2 UNIT = San Francisco 49ers @ New York Jets - 49ERS -3 (-130)
(Note: I'm risking 2.60 units to win 2.00 units)

We locked this in right before a bit of line movement earlier in the week, but some sportsbooks still give you the option to buy this game down to -3 at -135. I also like -4 +101 which is available right now as well.

The New York Jets opened up the season with a blowout 48-28 win over the Buffalo Bills as 3 point favorites, but then went into Pittsburgh and lost 27-10 as 5 point underdogs. Last week the Jets improved to 2-1 with a 23-20 overtime victory against the Dolphins. Mark Sanchez had his second rough outing going 21/45 for 306 yards with 1 TD and 2 INTs, while the running game for New York didn't get much going at all. Miami RB Reggie Bush was injured in the game and I think that was the difference for the Jets winning, as Bush was averaging 6.1 yards per carry before getting injured. Mark Sanchez is 23rd in the league for QB Rating at 78.3 as he has completed just 50.5% of his passes and has 5 TDs and 3 INTs on the year. Overall the Jets offense is 22nd in the league averaging just 330 yards per game on offense. Defensively they are 21st in the league giving up 367 yards against per game, while allowing 25 points against per game (18th). The Jets took a big loss in their victory last week with their defensive star, Darrelle Revis, injuring his knee and is expected to miss the entire season.

The San Francisco Giants went into Green Bay in Week 1 as 6 point underdogs and won outright 30-22, quickly making them early Super Bowl favorites. The 49ers followed that up with a Sunday Night victory against the Lions, 27-19, as 7 point favorites. Starting 2-0 the 49ers entered Minnesota last week as 6.5 road favorites, but ended up being upset 24-13 as they struggled on both sides of the ball. I think the loss was a good wake up call for the 49ers team that might have gotten a bit ahead of themselves after a hot start. QB Alex Smith has been effective completing just under 70% of his passes for 5 TDs and 1 INT, good for a QB rating of 102.7. The San Francisco offense is ranked just above the Jets at 21st with 335 yards per game, but their defense is 11th ranked allowing 321 yards against per game. After finishing last season with the 4th ranked defense I expect the 49ers numbers to continue to improve as they've started the season against 3 good offenses in GB, Det, and Min (with 2 of those games on the road).

The Jets were 6-2 at home last season, but their 2 losses were their only two games that they hosted a playoff team (New England and New York). San Francisco went 6-2 on the road last season, and beat 2 playoff teams (Detroit, Cincinnati) as well as some other good home teams (Philadelphia, Seattle). Their two road losses came against Baltimore and Arizona by a combined 12 points. San Francisco has gone 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 overall, and 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games following a straight up loss. The Jets are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. The Jets haven't gotten much done on offense in their last two games, and now they face their toughest test yet. San Francisco looks to avoid back to back losses and I think they come out hard Sunday and will be too much for the Jets. New York doesn't match up with the 49ers, and I think they get a big bounce back road victory and cover the spread.

2 UNIT = San Diego Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs - CHIEFS +1 (-110)
(Note: I'm risking 2.20 units to win 2.00 units)

The San Diego Chargers suffered their first loss of the season last weekend, but it came in a big way. The Chargers entered the game as 3 point favorites hosting the Atlanta Falcons and were blown out 27-3 in front of their home crowd. Matt Ryan completed 30 of 40 passes with 3 Touchdowns against the Chargers defense, while Michael Turner added 80 yards on the ground. Phillip Rivers didn't look good going 21 for 38 with just 178 yards and 2 INTs. San Diego's two victories have come @ Oakland and vs a weak Tennessee team at home. Although San Diego covered the spread in both games, neither victories impressed me too much. The Chargers are ranked 23rd offensively averaging 318 yards per game, and they are 21st scoring 21 points per game. Despite a bad game on defense last week the Chargers are still 9th in the league averaging 305 yards against per game.

The Kansas City Chiefs got their first win last week as 9 point underdogs in New Orleans. The Chiefs forced overtime and went on to kick a game winning field goal to pull off the upset. In Week 1 the Chiefs hosted the Atlanta Falcons and beat 40-24 as 3 point underdogs, and then went into Buffalo in Week 2 and 3 point underdogs and lost 35-17. Jamaal Charles broke out for a big game last week with 233 yards and 1 TD on 33 attempts, and I look for him to bring that effort into Sunday's game as the Chiefs look to improve to 2-2 (which would have them in 1st place in the division due to the h2h tie breaker). Kansas City ranks 1st offensively with 441 yards per game, but need to limit their turnovers as they are -8 already on the season. The Chiefs have completed 48% of their 3rd down attempts (4th in the league) and are averaging 22.7 ppg (17th). Defensively KC is 16th in the league allowing 347 yards against per game, although they are giving up a high 33 ppg (28th). Protecting the ball is going to be key for the Chiefs to win this game.

Kansas City was just 3-5 at home last season but 4-4 against the spread. Losses at home came against Buffalo, Miami, Denver, Pittsburgh and Oakland. The Chiefs beat San Diego 23-20 at home in overtime in Week 8 as 3 point underdogs, which came after the Chargers won their Week 3 meeting 20-17 as 14.5 point favorites. In their 4 meetings over the past 2 years the Chiefs are 3-1 ATS and 2-0 at home vs San Diego. Dating back the Chiefs are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games vs the Chargers. If you look back at last season you will notice the Chargers victories came against Minnesota, Kansas City, Miami, Denver, Jacksonville, Buffalo, Baltimore and Oakland (just 2 playoff teams) and I think they are a bit overrated after a 2-0 start to the season. Their victory in Oakland was mainly due to poor special teams play by the Raiders, and they could easily be 1-2 with their only win coming against a rookie QB in his first road game. Take note that the Chargers have good defensive numbers vs the rush this season, but their 3 opponents so far this year rank 25th, 31st, and 32nd in rushing. The Chargers were 20th in rush defense last season. I think Kansas City will be able to establish a good running game and allow Matt Cassel to be efficient. This won't be a popular pick this week but give me KC at home vs their divisional rivals.

2 UNIT = Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars - OVER 42.5 (-102)
(Note: I'm risking 2.04 units to win 2.00 units)

Cincinnati is coming off an impressive victory in Washington, which moved them to 2-1 on the season. The Bengals had a tough start to the season as they travelled to Baltimore in a Monday Night match up and went on to lose 44-13, but the Bengals have rebounded nicely with a 34-27 victory against Cleveland and a 38-31 victory against Washington. Cincinnati comes into this one 8th in the NFL offensively averaging 391 yards per game, while they are 8th with 28.3 points per game. QB Andy Dalton has been solid with a 105.0 QB Rating while completing 68.4% of his passes. The Bengals are 29th in the league defensively allowing 416 yards against per game, while giving up a high 34 points per game (31st).

The Jaguars managed to grab their first victory of the season last week as 3 point underdogs. The Jaguars beat Luck and the Colts 22-17 with a last minute drive to take the game and a bit of momentum with them back home. Losses came against Minnesota (26-23 in OT) and Houston (27-7). RB Maurice Jones-Drew got it going last week with 177 yards and 1 TD on 28 attempts. Overall Jacksonville is 30th in the league on offense with 268 yards per game, but MJD is a big part of that and his success last week should carry into this game. The Bengals are 31st against the rush allowing 154 rushing yards against per game. Take note that Cincinnati should also be able to get a balanced attack going as the Jaguars are barely in front of the Bengals at 30th in the NFL against the rush allowing 154 rushing yards against per game. Overall the Jags are 28th in the league in defense giving up 412 yards against per game.

Take note that the OVER is 5-0 in the Bengals last 5 games overall, 6-1 in their last 7 vs a team with a losing record, and 14-3 in their last 17 games vs AFC opponents. The OVER is also 8-3 in their last 11 road games, and 5-2 in their last 7 road games vs a team with a losing home record. The Jags have been playing to the under lately as their offense hasn't done much over the past year or so, but the OVER is 10-4 in their last 14 games following a straight up win. The Bengals have been great offensively their last two games and Andy Dalton has been solid under center. Also with MJD coming home after a big game I expect him to help get the offense going this week. Two struggling defenses calls for the OVER in this one.

2 UNIT = Miami Dolphins @ Arizona Cardinals - UNDER 39.5 (-103)
(Note: I'm risking 2.06 units to win 2.00 units)

Miami lost a tough one last week as they fell 23-20 against the New York Jets in overtime. The Dolphins lost their season opener 30-10 in Houston before winning big 35-13 at home against the Raiders. RB Reggie Bush was hurt in their lost last week, which hurt them as he looked like he was going to have back to back very quality games. He is probable this week. Despite almost being 2-1 entering this game, the Dolphin's rookie QB Ryan Tannehill is last in the league with a 58.3 QB rating completing just 52.9% of his passes with 1 TD and 4 INTs. The ground game has helped the Dolphins rank 12th overall with 369 yards per game. The defense is ranked 22nd giving up 373 yards against per game.

Arizona continued their unexpected start to the season as they improved to 3-0 after a 27-6 home victory against the Eagles last week as 3 point underdogs. In week 1 the Cardinals beat Seattle 20-16 and followed that up with a 20-18 win in New England as 13 point underdogs. The offense ranks 31s in the league with just 262 yards per game, but they've been effective when they've needed to be. The story has been on defense where they are 10th in the league giving up 316 yards against per game against some good offenses, and they are 2nd in the NFL giving up just 13.3 points against per game.

Take note that the UNDER is 22-8 in the Dolphins last 30 road games, 12-5-1 in their last 18 games overall, and 9-3 in their last 12 games following a straight up loss. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the Cardinals last 6 games overall, 3-0-1 in their last 4 games following a straight up win, and 5-0 in their last 5 September games (including 3-0 this season). In this match up we have two underrated and solid defenses going up against average at best offenses. Tannehill struggled in his first road game and I don't expect much here against a good Cardinals defense. I think both teams will be looking to run the ball quite a bit as part of their game plan, and points will be tough to come by. Take the UNDER.

2 UNIT = Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys - COWBOYS -3.5 (+105) *Monday Night'er*
(Note: I'm risking 2.00 units to win 2.10 units)

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Jimmy Boyd

5* (NFL) Miami Dolphins +6.5

4* (NFL) NY Giants +2

3* (NFL) Atlanta Falcons -7

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Wunderdog Sports

Game: New England at Buffalo (Sunday 9/30 1:00 PM Eastern)
Pick: New England -3.5 (-110)

For the second week in a row we get tremendous value backing a great team. We took New England last week and cashed. We'll do it again this week. The New England Patriots are off to a 1-2 start, but it is not like they have played poorly. The teams they lost to, Baltimore and Arizona, are off to a combined 6-1 start. Last week they had the game in hand on the road against a great team until a controversial last minute field goal by the Ravens. It has been nearly a decade since the Pats lost three in a row, so I expect them to come out breathing fire in this one. The last five times this team lost two in a row, they have come back to win all five by a combined score of 157-57. Arizona's 3-0 start has been impressive but did you know that the Patriots out-gained them 387-245? New England also moved the chains well in that game, getting 25 first downs compared to just 16 for the Cardinals. New England also had 33 first downs at Baltimore in the 1-point loss. In the game vs. Arizona the Pats missed a game winning FG as well. The Bills need all the weapons they can muster vs. New England, so the loss of C.J. Spiller is a big one. Spiller had gained 308 yards on 33 carries before injuring his shoulder. They also have lost David Nelson who caught 61 balls a year ago to a torn ACL. The Patriots are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 after a loss and 51-24-3 ATS on the road in their last 78. They are also 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games after allowing 30+ points. Finally, the Pats have covered seven of the last eight here in this building. Under Belichick, New England is 34-20 ATS as a road favorite. My computer matchup for this game has New England winning by a touchdown. I agree: Lay the points and look for a big New England win.

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Norm Hitzges

DOUBLE PLAYS:
· Denver -6 1/2 Oakland
· NY Giants + 1 1/2 Philly


SINGLE PLAYS:

· Houston -12 Tennessee
· San Fran -4 NY Jets
· Kansas City +1 San Diego
· Green Bay -7 1/2 New Orleans
· Detroit -4 1/2 Minnesota
· Denver-Oakland OVER 48 1/2
· Arizona-Miami UNDER 39

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POINTWISE PHONES:

3* San Fran, NE, Houst

2* Wash, Carolina, Miami, St Louis

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Info Plays

7* Carolina Panthers +7.5

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EA Sports Consultants

Lions -4.5
Chiefs +1
Rams +3
Dolphins +6
Jaguars +2.5

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SPORTS WAGERS

Survivor Pick –
GREEN BAY over New Orleans

We could certainly use the Ravens or Texans this week but the majority of your poolies will be on one of those two teams and we’ll stick with our philosophy of not following the masses. The Packers would be the fourth or fifth choice on most people’s list after Houston, Baltimore, Arizona and Atlanta but not ours, as we expect Green Bay to come out with more focus than ever after that Monday night debacle.

The Packers come off a tragic loss last week but beneath it all, we find a defense that has been very good. Let’s not overlook that Green Bay has faced three of the stronger D’s in the league after playing the 49ers, Bears and Seahawks. The Saints defense is a disaster, ranking #32 after getting torched by Washington, Carolina and Kansas City, not exactly the cream of the crop.

The Packers are too sound a team, both offensively and defensively, to lose focus and allow that game to affect them in a negative way. Adversity reveals character. The Saints have revealed theirs after Bountygate with some ugly football. The Packers have a chance to show how strong a unit they are and we expect them to respond appropriately. The point-spread is an indication of the disparity between these two. It’s not without its merits.

Week 4 pick – GREEN BAY straight up.

N.Y. Jets √
Cincinnati √
Chicago √

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BLEZOW LOCK OF THE WEEK NFL ( 0-3 ) :

Lock- ST LOUIS RAMS