10-1-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.



Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

Strike Point Sports
NFL Selections:


Take #231 Chicago (+3.5) over Dallas

[Mr. IWS]

Robert Ferringo
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS

2-Unit Play. Take #232 Dallas (-3.5) over Chicago (8:30 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 41.5 Chicago at Dallas (8:30 p.m.)

[Mr. IWS]

Jimmy Boyd

4* (NFL) Chicago Bears +3.5

[Mr. IWS]

Doc Sports

4 Unit Play. Take Over 41.5 in Chicago Bears @ Dallas Cowboys

Chicago

This game will be hard to compete with the one that transpired last week, but, nonetheless, the Bears will travel south to Dallas to take on the Cowboys. The Bears have done well in MNF games recently, especially when they are an underdog. I still believe their defense is overrated despite having many big-name players, but many of them are past their prime. Chicago has gone over the posted total in 6 of their last 7 games following an ATS victory in the previous week.

Dallas

The Cowboys have scored just 23 combined points the last two weeks, and that came against questionable competition in Tampa Bay and Seattle. Expect them to put forth a better showing on Monday in a national TV game. Dallas has gone over the posted total in 17 of their last 24 games played during the month of October.

Final Comment

The point total has stayed under in the 3 previous MNF games, but expect things to change this week. Both teams have quarterbacks with big arms that throw it down the field, and expect a shootout in Dallas on Monday. We will not worry if Dallas can cover this spread and just collect with the total.

Play the Over

[Mr. IWS]

Double Dragon


TOP (3 UNITS)
COWBOYS -3.5 vs bears (MNF)

[Mr. IWS]

John Ryan Bears at Cowboys Play: Under The simulator shows a high probability that fewer than 41 points will be scored in this game. The sim shows that Dallas and Chicago will score less than 21 points. In past games where Dallas has scored 15 to 21 points they have posted a 50-25 UNDER mark since 1992. The Bears have posted a 55-30 UNDER record when they have allowed 15 to 21 points in game since 1992. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 71-36 UNDER for 66.4% winners since 2002. Play UNDER the posted total with any team against the total that are off two or more consecutive UNDERS and now facing an opponent off three or more consecutive unders. Of the 107 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 42 of them have gone UNDER the total by seven or more points. The Chicago Bears are struggling offensively despite posting a 2-1 record through the first three weeks of the season. There is a very intriguing and contrary statistic involving the Bears offense. On the one hand they rank 29th in the NFL averaging just 4.5 yards-per-play. Yet, on a yards-per-point basis they rank best in the NFL posting an 11.0 ratio. This reflects the fact that Chicago?s defense has forced turnovers giving the offense a short field to operate and enhances the probability of scoring points. With that piece of information in hand it is painfully clear to me that the Dallas offensive scheme will be to establish the run and use short slant and out routes to control the clock . This entire scheme will be used to minimize turnovers and to not provide the Bears with a short field for scoring opportunities. The Bears will be without Matt Forte and this severely hurts the Bears offensive scheme. This leaves only Michael Bush at running back and he has averaged just 3.5 yards-per-carry on 44 attempt for the season. Cutler needs to be able to use play action to generate vertical play routes. If he does not have that option, then all that will be left or slants, ins, and bubble screen passes to minimize the Dallas defensive front seven pressure. When these two schemes matchup, it gives the immediate feel of a field possession type of game and one where both teams are not going to take risks with vertical pass routes. Misdirection plays may be the most run play by both teams. Dallas is a solid 10-2 UNDER facing teams who force 2.75 or more turnovers per game on the season since 1992; 15-5 UNDER in home games vs. poor passing teams with a completion percentage of 53% or worse. since 1992. Moreover, Dallas is 17-6 UNDER in home games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards last game since 1992. I believe this last game situation reinforces Dallas? commitment to the running game, especially after a game where the run game struggled to get established. Take the UNDER for a 10* Play.

[Mr. IWS]

Sixth Sense

DALLAS –3.5 Chicago 41.5

The Bears defeated St. Louis last week 23-6 and their defense played well against a Rams offense that is still not that good. Chicago was out rushed 3.5ypr to 3.0ypr but out passed the Rams 5.2yps to 2.5yps. Overall, the Bears out gained the Rams 4.1yppl to 2.8yppl. The Bears sacked the Rams six times in the game.

Dallas got by TB last week in a snoozer, 16-10 but they weren’t very efficient in doing so. They averaged just 1.7ypr while holding TB to just 3.0ypr. Dallas was decent through the air, averaging 6.0yps and holding TB to just 3.0yps. Overall, they out gained TB 4.5yppl to 3.0yppl. Dallas was sacked four times. They scored 13 of their 16 points on drives of 23, 11 and 2 yards. They also allowed a touchdown on a drive of just 29 yards following an interception.

Chicago averages just 3.5ypr against 4.5ypr and 5.4yps against 6.0yps. Overall, their offense is not very good, averaging just 4.5yppl against 5.3yppl. On defense they have been good, allowing 3.8ypr against 3.8ypr and just 4.8yps against 5.6yps. Overall, they allow just 4.5yppl against 5.0yppl. But, their overall defensive numbers are a bit skewed by their performance against the Rams, which have made them look better than they really are. Dallas averages 3.5ypr against 3.2ypr, 6.9yps against 7.1yps and 5.7yppl against 5.7yppl. They allow 4.0ypr against 3.9ypr, just 4.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.4yppl against 5.1yppl.

I don’t have any situation on this game. Numbers favor Dallas by 2.5 points and predict about 40 points. The Cowboys have played good defense this year. They allowed just 17 points to a good Giants offense. In their 27 points they allowed at Seattle, 10 of those points came off of turnovers or a blocked punt. We just pointed out above TB scored seven points on a short drive. The Bears have not moved the ball this year either. Indy has a bad defense so we remove that game. The Bears did nothing against the Packers and scored seven of their 23 points on an interception return last week. But, the Bears have also played good defense and Dallas has not shown an ability to move the ball this year either. Best play here is probably the under. DALLAS 21 CHICAGO 17

[Mr. IWS]

ASA's Pick Pack

NFL Guaranteed Pick

Guaranteed Plays

Matchup: Chicago at Dallas
Time: 8:35 PM EDT (Mon)
Play: Under (42.0 -110)
Line Source: William Hill
Posted on: September 30, 2012 @ 12:48:35 PM EDT

This line opened 43.5 and has since dropped to 41.5. Despite the loss of 2-points on the total, we still like the under here. We have two of the top defenses in the NFL facing off on Monday Night. Dallas leads the NFL in yards per play defense allowing just 4.4 YPP. Chicago is tied with a few teams for 2nd in that category at 4.5 YPP. They are ranked 1st and 6th respectively in YPG allowed. The Bears are giving up 16 PPG and they have allowed just 3 offensive TD’s this season. The Cowboys are giving up 18 PPG and have allowed just 5 offensive TD’s this season. These two defenses are top notch. Offensively both will struggle here. Chicago has had only one offensive outburst and that was a 41 point effort against a very poor Indy defense. Their other two games the Bears put up 23 against St. Louis and 10 against Green Bay. The Rams and Colts are two of the bottom 10 defenses in YPP allowed so Chicago’s offensive numbers are a bit skewed even though they aren’t overly impressive. The Cowboys are dead last in the NFL scoring just over 15 PPG on offense. After putting up 24 against the Giants to open the season, the Boys have only scored 7 & 16 their last two contests. Seattle is the only really solid defense this team has faced and they could only muster a TD in that one. This total is simply too high for these two teams. We like the UNDER on Monday Night.

[Mr. IWS]

4.5-STAR San Francisco over LA DODGERS - This is the perfect chance for the Giants to finish off their divisional rivals for the season. With their playoff seed locked up, they are not going to want to have to go all out later in the series to win games but might feel compelled to because of the team their playing. They can solve that issue simply by winning tonight and with their ace on the mound we seed that happening.

San Francisco won yesterday over San Diego, 7-5. The Giants are 19-7 since April 12, 2012 as a favorite after scoring 6+ runs for a net profit of $891.
They allowed those five runs on just six hits. The Giants are 8-1 since June 26, 2012 within 20 cents of pickem after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits for a net profit of $736.
LA won yesterday 7-1. However that one Colorado run came on nine hits with them leaving 23 on base individually The Dodgers are 1-6 since April 24, 2012 when playing a night game at home after a win in which their opponent left 18+ men on base for a net profit of $760 when playing against..
San Francisco's Matt Cain is coming off a start where he worked seven shutout innings in a win over Arizona. The Giants are 12-0 since May 12, 2012 when Matt Cain starts after a quality start and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $1220.
He allowed just four hits and a walk while striking out six. The Giants are 8-0 since May 12, 2012 when Matt Cain starts after more strike outs than hits allowed and they won in his previous start for a net profit of $820.
Cain was the home favorite in that start. The Giants are 8-0 since April 18, 2012 when Matt Cain starts after winning as a home favorite in his last start for a net profit of $820.
It was the third straight gem from Cain which the Giants have won. The Giants are 25-5 since June 14, 2006 when Matt Cain starts within 20 cents of pickem after the team won his last two starts for a net profit of $2075. SPORTSBOOK BREAKERS PREDICTION: San Francisco 5, LA DODGERS 2

[Mr. IWS]

Fantasy Sports Gametime

Baseball Monday

100* Play NY Yankees -225 over Boston (MLB TOP PLAY)
Starts at 7:00 PM EST

CC Sabathia has won 77 of the last 99 games as a favorite of -175 to -250 and he has won 91 of the last 141 home games when the total posted is between 8.5 and 10 runs. CC Sabathia has won 11 of the last 17 games when pitching in the month of October and he has an ERA of 2.38 over the last three starts.

50* Play Miami -175 over New York Mets (MLB BONUS PLAY)
50* Play Arizona -185 over Colorado (MLB BONUS PLAY)

[Mr. IWS]

5 Lines

Total Line for 10/01/2012
(Won last 2 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - New York Yankees : u8.5
Cost: -110

Run Line for 10/01/2012
(Won last 3 games)
Today's Winning Team is:
MLB - Boston Red Sox : +1.5
Cost: -105

[Mr. IWS]

Wunderdog Sports

Game: Houston at Chicago Cubs (8:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: Chicago Cubs -110 (moneyline)

It has been a long season for both these teams and the Houston Astros have endured thair second straight 100 loss season. It is impossible to back Houston on the road with their 18-60 road mark particularly at almost even odds. The Cubs have to sweep to avoid the 100 loss mark and they have been a decent team at home where they are 37-41 on the season. The Astros haven't fared much better on the road vs. a losing team where they are 12-40 in their last 52. The Cubs aren't posted as home chalk often, but have been a profitable 11-5 in their last 16 in this role. Play on the Cubs in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Turner System "Diamond Play"
Dallas Cowboys - 3

[Mr. IWS]

SPORTS WAGERS - MLB

CLEVELAND +106 over Chicago
Speaking of teams that choked when it mattered most, one need not look further than these White Sox, who have dropped 10 of their past 12 games to fall three games behind the Tigers with three games left. Detroit closes out the season with three against the Royals.
Instead of going with someone they can rely on, the South Side will turn to Hector Santiago’s wildness to try and keep their faint hopes alive. Santiago has walked 39 in 63 frames. He made a start against Cleveland last week, lasting only 3.1 innings while allowing five hits, four BB’s, and three earned runs. His xERA in three starts is 7.52. He also has an unfavorable fly-ball bias profile and while he has some upside with a good strikeout rate, you can’t keep falling behind hitters at this level and expect positive results.
Corey Kluber’s expected results are much better with a groundball bias profile, 16 walks in 57 frames and 48 K’s over that same span. Kluber’s ERA is 5.02 but an xERA of 3.41 over the his past four starts reveals just how much upside the kid has. The Indians second half will go down as one of the worst ever. A little satisfaction by officially eliminating the White Sox would be a fun way to close out this forgettable season for the Tribe. With a pitching matchup in our favor, we'll lean that way.

San Diego +150 over MILWAUKEE
The Brewers never really got it going until September when they were on a 17-4 run to close within 2½ games of a Wild Card birth. Then, when it counted most, they proceeded to lose five of their past six games, including two of three this past weekend at home to the hapless Astros. How does that happen? Now they’re being asked to spot -160 when morale is shot and the season is over. In terms of psychological edge, give a big advantage to the visitor.
The Padres season was over in May but they refuse to quit. They’re coming off seven games against the Dodgers and Giants in which they went a respectable 3-4 against some of the best pitchers in the game. They should find the going a little easier against Shaun Marcum. Marcum’s batted ball profile of 35% groundballs, 23% line-drives and 41% fly-balls makes him a big risk at this price. Pitching with nothing on the line for the first time all season increases that risk.
Clayton Richard doesn’t strike out as many as we’d like but he did ride elite control and a 54% groundball rate to a respectable season (3.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP). This wager, however, is more predicated on the Brewers lack of interest after losing 7-0 to the Astros yesterday and being officially eliminated after 159 games.

NFL

DALLAS -3 -120 over Chicago
The 2-1 Bears have two big wins at home against weak opponents (Indy and St. Louis) and then got beat big on the road in Green Bay. The win over the Rams was a letdown spot for the guest after they rallied from a big deficit to beat the Redskins. Despite being 2-1, the Bears look like anything but contenders with an array of issues. Jay Cutler has struggled in the last two games, failing to exceed 183 yards passing and tossing for just one score. He was intercepted four times in Green Bay and once by the visiting Rams. Worse yet, Cutler has been sacked 11 times this season while being hit hard far more times than that. The offensive line continues to be a major issue and facing the Cowboys in Dallas is not going to do anything to improve the blocking.
The ‘Boys 2-1 record isn’t thrilling either. They were whacked by Seattle in between wins over the Giants and Bucs. The season opening win against New York was impressive while the other two games were not. However, the Cowboys defense has been outstanding and now they’ll face a Bears club that is likely going to be without Matt Forte. Even if Forte goes, he’ll be at half speed. Dallas has weapons which will go off sometime soon.
The Bears defense has also been good but the problem is they could be on the field for an extended period of time and that’s grating to a stop unit. With Chicago taking to the road and it’s offence struggling, facing the best secondary they’ve seen yet does not bode well for them here. While the price seems fair, it may turn out to be rather cheap and that’s the side we’re far more comfortable endorsing.