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Bryan Leonard MLB Total Fri, 10/05/12 - 8:37 PM
double-dime bet 904 TEX / 903 BAL UNDER 9
Analysis: Baltimore @ Texas
Joe Saunders takes the mound for the Orioles against a Rangers offense that spent the better part of September posting numbers well below their season averages. In September/October, the Rangers batted just .251 with a season-low .305 OBP. The biggest key for Saunders in this start is that he doesn't walk people. In 174.2 innings of work, Saunders has issued just 39 walks. After Saunders was rocked in his first start with the Orioles, he posted a 2.75 ERA in the other six starts, a span of 39.1 innings.
Yu Darvish will head to the hill for the Rangers, with some strong numbers on his side. In his first start against a team, Darvish is 10-3 with a 3.12 ERA. In late August, the Rangers decided to leave Darvish alone and allow him to pitch his game instead of trying to change what worked for him. He responded in September with a 2.21 ERA in five starts, after posting a 5.74 ERA in July and a 5.29 ERA in August. With Darvish able to dictate things for himself, he has been far more comfortable. The moment shouldn't catch up with Darvish, who pitched in several big games in Japan and in international competition.
Both teams should play this game pretty close to the vest and the pitchers will be focused on their games. The Rangers also have to try and overcome their epic collapse that cost them the AL West crown, while the Orioles, who hoped to be hosting their first playoff game in 15 years had to head to Texas to try and keep their postseason dream alive.
PLAY: BAL/TEX UNDER
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BOB BALFE
St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves
Atlanta Braves -165, 6.5
10/05/2012 5:00 PM
SELECTION: ATLANTA BRAVES -165
Medlen/Lohse
Who the heck is Kris Medlen? That will be the reaction from most baseball fans watching the playoffs tonight. This guy is 9-0 in all of his starts this year and its not because of run support. He is sporting a ERA under 1.00 when he starts. That is just amazing. I think he will show a little nerves tonight, but I like the fact the Braves dominate against right handing pitching while the Cardinals broke even this year. The Braves are a tough team to beat at home and the Cardinals actually had a losing away record this year. Look for game one to go to Atlanta. I don't usually play prices this high, but its playoff time and we have no other choice. Take the Braves.Comment
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ANDRE GOMES
MLB - 901 St Louis Cardinals @ 902 Atlanta Braves
(Starting Pitchers: K. Lohse vs K. Medlen)
Atlanta will of course use Medlen in today's wild card game and I expect the Cardinals' batters to struggle today. Medlen generally uses three kind of pitches: fastball, curveball and changeup, with his secret being the fact that his release point is the same for the three pitches, something that really fools the opposing batters. According to fangraphs.com, Medlen is a top 5 pitcher in all these three pitches, while St Louis is #6 against fastballs, #4 against curveballs and #16 against changeups (Medlen's best pitch). Over the last 30 days, the Cardinals are just #21 against fastballs, #7 against curveballs and #26 against changeups, therefore looking at Medlen's amazing form, I can't really expect St Louis (whose roster has just 33 AB's against him) to be the team who is finally able to make Medlen struggle, after a dozen of amazing outings. If we add to this, an excellent bullpen with Martinez, O'Flaherty and Avilan plus the closer Kimbrel (1.01 ERA, 0.78 FIP and 0.88 xFIP), I don't see how the Cardinals will be able to have any kind of decent offense today against the current best pitcher in the baseball plus a bullpen who is #2 in FIP with 3.21 and #1 in xFIP with 3.32 this season, while having had even better numbers in September.
So, it will be all up to Lohse to have a very good outing today to compensate St Louis' lack of hitting today. He had "just" a solid September/October with 3.89 ERA, but his advanced numbers (3.39 FIP, 3.34 xFIP) were quite good and better than his ERA. He had some issues against Washington twice, but that isn't expected to happen today against an Atlanta offense that combined a .635 OPS over the last 30 days. Lohse throws mostly fastballs (53%), sliders (23.4%) and changeups (19.2%), with the Braves being just #28 in hitting against fastballs, #25 against sliders and #5 against changeups in September. With the full season numbers not being much better, I don't see Atlanta putting Lohse in big trouble today. I know Lohse struggled in a start against Atlanta earlier on the season, but he didn't have his usual good control on his pitches (6 GB and 10 FB, including 2 HR allowed) and ended up struggled against a Braves offense that was in much better form back then than they are right now.
Even though I believe Atlanta will eventually win this game due to a brilliant pitching from Medlen plus the bullpen, I also expect Lohse to have a very good outing in here, turning this game into a very low scoring game. Therefore, even considering the low totals line, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 901/902 Under 7 (w/ K. Lohse & K. Medlen) @ -125 / 1.80Comment
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Al DeMarco - GM
Friday's Play
10 dime run line release on TExas and Yu Darvish at home agaisnt Baltimore and Joe Saunders. Obviously specify both pitchers. The Rangers are +100 as of 11 AM Pacific.
It's been a lousy - make that AWFUL - two weeks, but it's not the first time in my life I've been crushed nor will it be the last. And the past will not affect how I play tonight or this weekend because, bottom line, the breaks always even out over the long run and will ultimately go in my favor.
Back to baseball tonight for winner # 19 of 27 on the Rangers-Orioles wildcard game.Comment
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Marco D'Angelo | MLB Total - Friday, Oct 5 2012 8:37PM
903 BAL / 904 TEX UNDER 9 Hilton double-dime bet
Analysis: PLAY: TEXAS/BALTIMORE UNDER 9
RATING: DOUBLE DIME PLAY
The Texas Rangers have to be feeling the wait of the world on them right now after their colossal collapse last week. Texas basically was in 1st place the entire season right up to the final day. With a loss today the Rangers can go from back to back World Seri ‰es games to one and done. With that said I believe this game will be played more like a National League game where both will try to manufacture runs. So what I mean is instead of going for the big inning they will be more inclined to bunt a runner and give up a out to get a runner in scoring position. Both teams will be tight playing more trying not to lose rather than playing to win. That style will help our bet on the Under. Also both pitchers are in good form right now as Yu Darvish has had 8 straight starts where he has given up 3 runs or less. Baltimore starter Joe Saunders has had 6 straight starts with 3 runs or less. Another factor I like for the under is the fact that this will be the first time Baltimore has faced Darvish. The pitcher always has the advantage over the hitter the first time around the league. Darvish may be pitching in his first playoff game in Major League Baseball but he already has Playoff experience as he pitched in the Playoffs in Japan. In fact he pitched in the playoffs in 5 of the 6 seasons he was there and had an 8-2 record and a ERA of 1.38. Look for a pitcher's duel here as I see 7 or less runs being scored.
TAKE TEXAS/BALTIMORE UNDER 9Comment
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