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CAPPERS ACCESS
Iowa
Northwestern
Notre Dame
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Iowa
Northwestern
Notre Dame
LSU
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EZWINNERS Saturday Plays
5 STAR SELECTION
Game: South Carolina Gamecocks @ LSU Tigers
Sport: NCAA Football
Time: 7:00pm Central Time
TV: ESPN
(177) South Carolina Gamecocks +2.5
(Risking $550 to win $500)
(Line from 5dimes.com on 10/10/12)
This would normally be a very tough spot for South Carolina as they are coming off of a huge win over Georgia, while LSU is stinging from their loss at Florida in a night game in Death Valley, but I don't see it in this game. South Carolina has a very well balanced offense led by quarterback Conner Shaw and running back Marcus Lattimore and their defense is one of, if not the best in the SEC. I picked LSU to win the national title this year, but that is not going to happen. This Tigers team in just not as good as they look on paper. The defense is solid, but not dominating. Florida was able to pound them with the running game in the second half last week when their defense was tired due to being on the field too much and they also suffered some key injuries to starting linebackers. South Carolina should be able to do the same with Marcus Lattimore. On offense LSU looks like shit. They don't have much of a running game, the offensive line is in shambles and quarterback Zack Mettenburger plays very poorly when under pressure. One thing that the South Carolina defense will do is bring pressure. Gamecock's defensive end Jadeveon Clowney is going to be hard to handle for the LSU offensive line. Clowney led a defensive effort that held Georgia, the SEC's highest scoring team coming into last week, without a point for 58 minutes. Take the points.
4 STAR SELECTION
Game: Alabama Crimson Tide @ Missouri Tigers
Sport: NCAA Football
Time: 2:30pm Central Time
TV: CBS
(167) Alabama Crimson Tide -21.5
(Risking $440 to win $400)
(Line from 5dimes.com on 10/10/12)
The Missouri football program is at its lowest point in quite some time after their home loss to Vanderbilt last week. To put things into perspective this was just the ninth SEC road win for Vanderbilt in thirteen years. The flood of injuries that has hit the Tigers just doesn't seem to stop and it will most likely be backup quarterback Corbin Berkstresser making the start in this game against Alabama as starting quarterback James Franklin was injured in last week game against Vandy. Berkstresser was only nine for thirty passing in relief of Franklin against Vandy last week and is going to have his work cutout for him. The Tide are the number one team in the nation and are coming off of a bye week. Bama head coach Nick Saben has not been very happy with his offense's ability to finish drives with touchdowns in their past two games so I expect the Tide to do much better in that area in this game coming out of their bye week. Missouri's offense is reeling and is a complete mess right now. The two players who touch the ball on every play for the Tigers will be out for a few weeks as quarterback James Franklin and center Mitch Morse both suffered strained knee ligaments, so backups get to go against the Alabama defense that has allowed only five touchdowns all year. I look for a 44-10 type game. Lay the points.
4 STAR SELECTION
Game: Stanford Cardinals @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sport: NCAA Football
Time: 2:30pm Central Time
TV: NBC
(170) Notre Dame Fighting Irish -7
(Risking $440 to win $400)
(Line from 5dimes.com on 10/10/12)
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have quietly been rolling under head coach Brian Kelly. Over their last fifteen regular season games the Irish are 13-2 and off to an undefeated season this year. I'm sure the Irish will be up for this game against the Cardinals who have beaten Notre Dame three straight seasons. This time around I expect different results. The Irish offense is still a work in progress as their redshirt freshmen quarterback Everett Golson continues to grow in the offense, but they do have a big, physical offensive line that allows the team to run the ball effectively and take much of the pressure off Golson. The other side of the ball is where the Irish have a huge advantage. The Notre Dame defense has been outstanding and they have held their last three opponents Michigan State, Michigan, and Miami without a touchdown. The Irish are giving up 7.8 points per game which is second lowest in the country and they have forced 13 turnovers and recorded 14 sacks. The Stanford offense is going to struggle against the Irish defense as I don't expect them to be able to run the ball which will force Stanford quarterback Josh Nunes to make plays in the passing game which I don't think he can do consistently against a strong defense. The hangover effect of the big comeback win over Arizona last week might also show up here. Lay the points.
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Robert Ferringo
COLLEGE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS
2-Unit Play. Take #139 Louisville (-3) over Pittsburgh (11 a.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
This Pittsburgh team is a mess. They are an absolute mess. Their two wins have come against a stunningly overrated Virginia Tech team and Gardner Webb. They were blown out at Cincinnati and they have losses to two other bad teams, Syracuse and Youngstown State (not a misprint). Louisville has had two weeks to prepare for their third straight road game. They are the best team that Pitt has faced yet this season. Louisville's defense is going to be able to frustrate a shaky Pitt offense and Terry Bridgewater is clearly the better of the two quarterbacks. We got burned by Louisville's lackluster performance at Southern Miss a couple weeks ago. But I think that game was a fluke. I think they are a well-coached team and I think that they will be prepared for their conference opener. Louisville dominated an SEC team in Kentucky and an ACC team in North Carolina. I think they will control this one from start to finish and get revenge for a tough home loss last year, while also snappig a four-game losing streak to the Panthers.
7-Unit Play. Take #159 Illinois (+25) over Michigan (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Note: This is our "Big Dog" Underdog of the Year.
I understand that this seems crazy. But it is not. I am simply holding firm on what all of my offseason research told me: Illinois is better than it seems and Michigan is much worse. I am holding firm to that. I could see this spread being around 14.5. But at 24.5 it is just ridiculous. Illinois has played some outstanding offenses (Louisiana Tech, Arizona State) and some offenses that are definitely trending upward in a big way (Penn State, Wisconsin) and they still have a defense ranked in the Top 40 overall. I think they are going to have one of their better efforts here.
Michigan is right where we want them. They had two weeks to prepare and were desperate for a win last week at Purdue and they responded with a brilliant 44-13 showing. ?The Wolverines are back!? That's the idea, right? But I don't believe it. Next week they have a huge rivalry game with Michigan State. In between is lowly Illinois. And we have already seen a letdown game out of Michigan this year in a 31-25 win over Air Force as a 21-point favorite. But the Illini have done well in this series, going 4-2 in the last six meetings and winning two of the last four. That includes a 45-20 win at The Big House in 2008 and a near-miss in their last trip here in 2010 (they lost 67-65 in OT). I think there is a lot of offense on both sides of the field - too much for this big of a number.
Illinois lost 31-14 in Madison last week, but that game was closer than the final score suggests. It was tied 7-7 at halftime and was just 10-7 going into the fourth quarter. Illinois missed a FG, set up a Wisconsin touchdown with an INT, and set up another score with a punt failure. Sure, sloppy play has been the Illini's M.O. this year, as they were crippled by turnovers against Louisiana Tech and Penn State. But Michigan has the same weakness. And if the Illini can just play even in the turnover battle in this one I really think they could win this game outright.
The public is pounding Michigan in this game. And why wouldn't they? The Wolverines are supposed to be really, really good, right? Well, they beat Purdue by 31 and Massachusetts by 40. Other than that they have looked mediocre at best. I think they are going to win this game. I do. But I don't think that they are 28-30 points better than Illinois.
The Illini have been posted as a double-digit underdog nine times since the start of the 2007 season. They are 6-2-1 ATS in those nine games and have been a very active underdog in these situations.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #138 Connecticut (-5.5) over Temple (1 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
I think that Temple is weak this year. Yes, they are coming off a win over South Florida. But everyone has beaten South Florida this year. And Temple had two weeks to prep for that one. The Owls lost to Penn State and Maryland rather handily and their only other victory came over lowly Villanova. I am not impressed with what Temple brings to the table. Connecticut went on the road and beat the same Maryland team that handled Temple with the Owls playing at home. Connecticut hammered Massachusetts and also beat Buffalo this year. Their losses have been close games against good teams like N.C. State (just beat Florida State), at Western Michigan (one of the better mid-majors) and at Rutgers (Top 25 team). Connecticut's defense is going to smother Temple's No. 114 ranked offense. The Huskies don't exactly light it up themselves, but they are playing at home and they can at least complete a forward pass. This one won't be pretty. But I think Connecticut finds a way to get to 20 and that should be enough.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #172 San Jose State (-3) over Utah State (4 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
The line swing on this game is a major indicator. Utah State started out as a -1 road favorite. But the line swung quickly and definitively in this one. And I think that San Jose State is the better team that has performed better so far this season. Utah State is coming off a heartbreaking 6-3 loss to rival BYU and I think it is going to be tough for them to go back on the road for a second week in a row and be sharp. They were in the same situation a few weeks ago. Utah State lost a tough one on the road against Wisconsin and then came back with a lackluster performance at Colorado State. And if you dig deep, Utah State's wins this season (UNLV, Colorado State, Southern Utah) aren't all that impressive. San Jose State was much more convincing against Colorado State, they won at Navy and at San Diego State, they had two weeks to prep for this game, and they have played the best game against Stanford of anyone this year.
2-Unit Play. Take #146 Wyoming (+3) over Air Force (7 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
I actually think the wrong team is favored here. Air Force is coming off a heartbreaking rivalry loss at home to Navy (we cashed with the Middies, who won outright as an 8-point underdog) and I really see a similar situation here. Navy was severely undervalued because they had played a tough schedule. The same can be said for Wyoming, which lost to a very dynamic Toledo team just 34-31 and lost at Nevada last week 35-28. This same Cowboys team also lost just 37-17 against Texas in the season opener. Air Force is a very young team and I think that makes them more susceptible to the letdown factor here on the road. Air Force lost at UNLV already this year and, really, their only two wins have come against Idaho State and pathetic Colorado State. I like the value with this one.
2-Unit Play. Take #186 Central Florida (-16.5) over Southern Miss (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
I am going to ride Central Florida in conference play until they prove they can't handle it. They are head-and-shoulders better than everyone in that league and they are clearly better than Southern Miss. People are having a hard time believing it because they have been so strong in recent years, but USM is pretty bad. This team got wrecked by Boise State at home last week and I think UCF is better than Boise. Southern Miss also got demolished on the road by 29 at Nebraska in a game that wasn't even THAT close and they lost by 25 at Western Kentucky in a game in which the Toppers outgained the Eagles by 300 yards.
Last week UCF hammered East Carolina - the same ECU team that beat USM by 10 in Mississippi - by 20 points and it could've been worse. Central Florida had a few extra days to prepare for this one and they have a lot of revenge from last year's crushing 30-29 loss at USM. Central Florida has actually lost four straight in this series. But they are going to make up for it here. I think this one should be another bludgeoning and I'll go with the more talented, experienced, motivated team here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #132 Minnesota (+3.5) over Northwestern (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 13)
Northwestern is not any good. They were in the Top 25 for about 12 seconds and we won betting against them last week. There is no way they should be favored in this game. Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare, with revenge, and they have the better offense and defense in this game. Northwestern has played and beaten a bunch of losers. They got dominated in Happy Valley last week, getting outgained by nearly 200 yards, and they have a home game with Nebraska next week. Smack in the middle is a trip to Minnesota against an upstart Gophers team. Over 70 percent of the public is taking the road chalk here but they are severely overestimating Minnesota. Northwestern can't stop ANYONE. And the Gophers defense plays above itself on its home turf. Again, with extra prep time, with Marqueis Gray back in the fold, facing a pathetic defense, as a home underdog that the public is completely overlooking, I really like Minnesota in this spot.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #200 UCLA (-8.5) over Utah (3 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
Yeah, I'm expecting Utah to fall off a cliff right about now. They have lost three of four games and the one win, against BYU, was complete and utter rubbish. They have been outgained in each of their last four games and they are coming off an emotional home loss on national TV to USC. The Utes snuck in the back door in that game (their second garbage cover of the season) and I am not all that impressed. UCLA is still a team on the upswing. They and covered in four of their first five games before getting ambushed at Cal last week. That makes this a prime bounce back situation.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #161 Fresno State (+7) over Boise State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
I am still selling my Boise State stock. Don't be fooled by their 40-14 win at Southern Miss last week because Southern Miss stinks. And prior to that the Broncos won by just three points at New Mexico, beat BYU (just four days after the Holy War) by just one point, and fluked their way to covers against Miami, OH and Michigan State. I am not that impressed with this rebuilding Boise State team. But I have been impressed with this Fresno State team. They are 6-0 ATS this year and they have earned every cover. They have a better quarterback, a better defense, and a huge revenge motivation after losing 57-7 to Boise State last year and 51-0 the year before. But as we've seen, this year's Boise State team is not the same caliber as in years past. Take the points and look for a potential upset here.
1-Unit Play. Take #130 Purdue (-2) over Wisconsin (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 13)
Why is Purdue favored in this game? There is no reason that Purdue should be favored in this game, right? Well, the fact that they are favored is a huge red flag in this game. Purdue laid an egg last week. But apparently the oddsmakers still like what they have going on. And the fact that 75 percent of the wagers in this game are coming down on Wisconsin - which has been kind of a mess this season - is another red flag.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #111 Texas (+3.5) over Oklahoma (Noon, Saturday, Oct. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #156 Mississippi (-5.5) over Auburn (12:20 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #181 West Virginia (-3.5) over Texas Tech (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #203 Florida Atlantic (+24.5) over UL-Monroe (8 p.m., Saturday, Oct. 13)
2.5-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #114 Michigan State (-2) over Iowa (Noon) AND Take #236 Louisiana Tech (+14.5) over Texas A&M (9 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #115 North Carolina (-0.5) over Miami (2:30 p.m.) AND Take #177 South Carolina (+10) over LSU (8 p.m.)Comment
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BETTORSWORLD
3* #111 Texas +3 and +3.5 over Oklahoma - Split your wager, half at +3 -105 and the other half at +3.5 up to -120.
3* #177 South Carolina +3 over LSU - This number is bouncing back and forth between +2.5 and +3. Right now there are mostly +3's at -115 on the board. There are some +3's at -110 and even -108 on the board though, again stressing how important it is to have multiple outs. You don't want to get into the habit of laying extra juice!!
3* Key Release - Wyoming +3.5 over Air Force - good at +3 as well, but there are some +3.5's on the board.Comment
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Xpert picks parlay of year-
SATURDAY
• Play Oklahoma -3 over Texas (NCAA RIVALRY PARLAY OF THE YEAR)---20%
OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 12:00 PM EST
Oklahoma has won 15 of the last 16 games when playing in the 1st half of
the season and they have also won 12 consecutive games coming off an
OVER the total. Oklahoma has won 5 consecutive games when playing as a
neutral field favorite and they have also won 11 of the last 13 games
when the total posted is between 56.5 and 63 points.
• Play South Carolina +2.5 over LSU (NCAA RIVALRY PARLAY OF THE
YEAR)---20% OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 8:00 PM EST
South Carolina has won 10 of the last 11 games coming off a win by 21
points or more and they have also won 16 of the last 19 games when
playing in the 1st half of the season. South Carolina has covered the
spread in 5 of the last 6 games this year and they are only allowing an
average of 10 points a game on defense this season.
• Play Alabama -21.5 over Missouri (TOP NCAA PLAY)---5% OF YOUR
BANKROLL
Starts at 3:30 PM EST
Alabama has covered the spread in 8 of the last 9 games when the total
posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have also covered the
spread in 6 consecutive road games coming off a win by 17 points or
more. Alabama has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 games as a road
favorite of 14.5 points or more and they are only allowing an average of
7 points a game on defense this season.
• Play San Diego State -20.5 over Colorado State (TOP NCAA PLAY)---5%
OF YOUR BANKROLL
Starts at 6:30 PM EST
Colorado State has lost 5 consecutive games against the spread and they
have also lost 22 of the last 25 games as an underdog. Colorado State
has lost 8 consecutive games coming off a home loss and they are only
averaging 16 points a game on offense this season.Comment
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INDIAN COWBOY
4-Unit Play. #294. Take Under 53.5 Calgary vs. Winnipeg (Saturday @ 1pm est).
The last time these two teams met the final score was 44-3 as Winnipeg was routed and they certainly remember that game back on September 14th. It's hard to forget when you lose that bad on the road. I can see Winnipeg having a much stronger effort with revenge at home coming into this game. Plus, the line itself indicates that this game is likely to be a lot closer as its within 3 points essentially so the oddsmakers are expecting a more competitive game tonight. I like how Calgary comes off a tough loss against British Columbia and they usually respond with a strong defensive effort such as their two previous losses when they lost to Saskatchewan they gave up 15 points in their next game to to Edmonton or when they lost to Toronto and they gave up 10 points in their next game after that. As per Winnipeg, they have that big revenge angle to not give up 44 points in this game but also they come off a nice win against Montreal as a huge 13.5 point underdog on Monday if you remember and I can see them having that revenge on the defensive end and having a let down on the offensive end. Look for this game to likely go under the posted total today.
6-Unit Play. #295. Take Saskatchewan PK over Edmonton (Saturday @ 4:05pm est).
Saskatchewan I think is set up nicely for this game. With Edmonton coming off an emotional 35-20 win over Hamilton in their last game, I can see them having a let down here. In fact, Edmonton was our 6* in that game which worked out for us nicely. But, this could be a let down spot for them as they beat Saskatchewan earlier this year by a score of 28-20 back in early August. Saskatchewan is a very streaky team and does well with revenge. They have covered their last 3 straight including beating Toronto 36-10 on the road, beating the defending Champs 27-21 at home and beating Calgary 30-25 at home as a 1 point underdog. These are all difficult games and now they hook up with a team they have revenge against so the motivation is certainly there. Combine that with Edmonton having a likely let down after their big win and facing a motivated Saskatchewan team seeking revenge, I like Saskatchewan to roll in on Saturday afternoon and do well here.Comment
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