10-20-12

[Mr. IWS]

We are looking for someone to post service plays in the evenings from 5pm and on from there. If you can spare some time, the group would really appreciate it.


Note:


ALL PLAYS POSTED ARE UNCONFIRMED UNLESS YOU BUY THEM YOURSELF. THERE IS BAD INFO PASSED AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME, SO PLAY AT YOUR OWN RISK

[Mr. IWS]

DR. BOB

BEST BETS

Florida St -19
Oregon St -10
Kansas State +3

Opinions

N Illinois -15.5
Alabama -20
Ohio St -18
South Florida +7
Tulsa -19.5
Western Kentucky -3

[Mr. IWS]

Dr. Bob

3 Star Best Bet
***UTAH ST. (-30.5) 49 New Mexico St. 9
20-Oct-2012 12:00PM Pacific
I know a lot of you don’t like to see such a big favorite on my card, but huge favorites are reliable bets in conference play, especially if the favorite is playing well and the big dog is coming off a loss. In fact, since 2009 conference favorites of more than 21 points are 55-27 ATS if they’re coming off a conference win and the dog is coming of a loss. So, now that you’re now longer biased against betting on a huge favorite let’s take a look at why Utah State is going to crush New Mexico State.

Utah State is a vastly underrated team that is now 7-0 ATS this season after beating San Jose State by 22 points last week. The Aggies are very good on both sides of the ball, rating at 0.9 yards per play better than average on offense (6.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and 1.0 yppl better than average defensively (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team). Utah State also has a quarterback that doesn’t turn the ball over, as Chuckie Keeton has thrown just 6 interceptions on 402 career pass attempts.

Another ingredient to a good big favorite is the ability to run the ball well, which can lead to increased margins late in a game when all they’re doing is handing the ball off. Utah State averages 5.6 yards per rushing play (against teams that would allow 5.0 yprp to an average team) and New Mexico State can’t stop the run, allowing 5.2 yprp to teams that would average only 4.6 yprp against an average defense. The New Mexico State Aggies also can’t stop the pass (7.5 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average only 5.4 yppp against an average defense), so Keeton (1.0 yppp better than average) should have an easy time throwing the ball when he needs to. New Mexico State has faced only below average offensive teams this season but the two best (i.e. least bad) offenses that they faced were Ohio and UTEP and those teams scored an average of 46 points on 536 yards at 7.1 yppl against New Mexico State’s defense. My math model projects 587 yards at 8.1 yppl for Utah State in this game and they’d be likely to top 50 points if they kept their starters in the entire game (48 points assuming they pull them at some point).

New Mexico State has also faced only below average defensive teams this season but they’re still averaging only 19.6 points in their 5 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to allow 33.4 points to an average team. Utah State has allowed an average of just 14.9 points in their 7 games and the only really bad offensive team that they faced was Southern Utah, who managed just 209 yards and 3 points against the Aggies (and Southern Utah is actually better offensively than New Mexico State). My math model projects just 223 yards at 3.2 yppl for New Mexico State in this game and predicts 6.7 points for the Aggies if Utah State keeps their starters in the entire game (8.8 points if they pull their starters with a big lead).

This game is ideal for taking a huge favorite, as we have a team that is very good on both sides of the ball against a team that is bad on both sides of the ball and the favorite has a quarterback that isn’t turnover prone and is likely to run up the score by simply running the ball late in the game. My math model gives Utah State a 62% chance of covering in this game (based on the historical performance of my model) and my math model is 34-7-1 ATS over the years (2-0 this year) when making a play on a home favorite of 21 points or more (a math play is one that projects at a 56% or higher cover chance). Utah State also applies to a very good 163-77-2 ATS statistical matchup indicator that has won 19 consecutive times when applying to a favorite of 27 points or more. I’ll take Utah State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -31 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -34 points.

3 Star Best Bet
***Alabama (-20.0) 42 TENNESSEE 12
20-Oct-2012 4:00PM Pacific
Tennessee has given up an average of 43 points in their 3 SEC games and their horrible defense (466 yards at 6.6 yards per play allowed to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average team) will be exploited by an efficient Alabama attack that has averaged 40.5 points per game on 6.7 yppl against a schedule of teams that are 0.8 yppl better defensively than the Vols. My math model projects 499 yards at 7.5 yppl for the Crimson Tide in this game, which should be good for about 42 points.

If Alabama scores 40 points, which is certainly reasonable given that they’ve averaged 40.5 points against defenses considerably better than Tennessee’s defense, then the Tide will cover the spread in this game if they hold Tennessee to under 20 points. Alabama has held 19 consecutive Division 1A opponents to 14 points or less, including giving up just 269 yards and 14 points to a very good Michigan offense on opening day this season. The last 1A teams that score more than 14 points against Alabama was Cam Newton’s Auburn team that won the National Championship. Tennessee’s Tyler Bray is a pretty good quarterback but he’s no Cam Newton.

Alabama’s defense has allowed just 7.5 points per game on 192 yards at 3.3 yards per play this season to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team (that was adjusted for the fact that they faced Arkansas without Tyler Wilson at quarterback). Tennessee is 0.6 yppl better than average offensively (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they did manage to score 20 points against a very good Florida defense, but Florida’s defense is 0.9 yppl worse than Alabama’s dominating stop unit, which equates to 7 points – so I doubt that the Vols can get to 20 points in this game. My math model projects just 11.6 points on 260 yards at 4.0 yppl for Tennessee in this game.

In addition to the line value, Alabama applies to a 41-8 ATS big road favorite momentum situation while Tennessee applies to a negative 98-183-1 ATS situation that is based on their recent poor defense. I also don’t mind backing an Alabama team that is 34-14 ATS in all games the last 5 seasons when not favored by 30 points or more, including 24-8 ATS the week following a win. Nick Saban’s clubs have always been good at carrying over momentum and not letting down, as Saban is 40-15-1 ATS in his coaching career the week following a victory when not favored by 30 points or more, including 8-0 ATS since the beginning of last season. I’ll take Alabama in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -23 points.

3 Star Best Bet
***Kansas St. (+3) 37 WEST VIRGINIA 31
20-Oct-2012 4:00PM Pacific
I got an easy 3-Star win going against West Virginia last week and the Mountaineers were overrated before that and are now just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. I expect that record to drop another notch after their tussle with Kansas State. Kansas State was more lucky than good last season but this season they are simply good - really good. West Virginia has received a lot of attention for their offense, and rightfully so, but the Mountaineers’ potent attack (7.0 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) is just barely better than a Kansas State offense that’s averaged 6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. West Virginia is actually 1.7 yppl better than average when quarterback Geno Smith is in the game, but the Mountaineers’ attack is still just 0.3 yppl better than the Wildcats’ offense.

That small disparity in offense in favor of West Virginia is trumped soundly by a huge difference in the level of defense that these teams play. West Virginia is 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively, allowing 6.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team, and the Mounties have given up an average of 38.4 points in 5 games against 1A competition. Kansas State’s defense, meanwhile, is 0.8 yppl better than average (4.9 yppl allowed to 5 Division 1A teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team) and the Wildcats haven’t allowed more than 21 points in any game this season – and that includes a 24-19 road win at Oklahoma, a team that won at Texas Tech and just beat Texas by 63-21. West Virginia just lost by 35 points at Texas Tech and barely beat Texas by 3 points, so Kansas State winning at Oklahoma certainly shows that they’re a better team than West Virginia.

My math model actually favors Kansas State by 6 points in this game and I’ll take Kansas State in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2-Stars as an underdog of less than 3 points.

3 Star Best Bet
***Florida St. (-19.0) 47 MIAMI FLA 16
20-Oct-2012 5:00PM Pacific
My math model gave Florida State a 57% chance of covering last week as a 28 point favorite against Boston College but I laid off the game because teams with National Championship hopes often letdown after losing their first game of the season and I thought that could be the case with the Seminoles (although I still leaned with them to cover). Florida State obviously didn’t suffer a letdown, as they buried the Eagles 51-7 and I don’t see a letdown here against in-state rival Miami.

Florida State is one of the most dominating teams in the nation, as they’ve outgained their 5 Division 1A opponents 540 yards at 7.7 yards per play to 277 yards at 4.0 yppl and the teams the Seminoles have faced are only 0.3 yppl worse than average collectively. The Noles’ offense should have no trouble lighting up the scoreboard against a bad Miami defense that has allowed 6.9 yppl in 6 games against Division 1A opponents that would combine to average 5.9 yppl against an average team. The Hurricanes only gave up 18 points last week but they allowed 487 yards and couldn’t stop the Tar Heels from running the ball with success (273 yards at 6.3 yards per rushing play). Miami also gave up 376 rushing yards at 7.4 yprp the week before to Notre Dame, so Florida State’s bevy of talented backs, averaging 7.2 yprp against 1A competition, should find plenty of holes to run though. FSU quarterback E.J. Manuel, averaging 8.3 yards per pass play, should also have success against a Hurricanes’ secondary that’s allowed 8.9 yards per pass play to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense. Miami was lucky to give up only 18 points last week, but they’ve allowed 32 points or more in their other 5 games against 1A opposition, which includes sub-par offensively teams Boston College and NC State. Florida State averages 7.7 yppl and I expect them to surpass that incredible number in this game.

While Florida State is racking up the yards and points the Hurricanes will have a tough time staying close against a very good Florida State defense, even is starting quarterback Stephen Morris is able to play on his badly sprained ankle (he’s listed as doubtful). Miami does have a good offense with Morris under center, as the Canes have averaged 6.0 yppl against teams that would combine to allow only 5.2 yppl to an average team. However, Florida State’s defense is among the best in the nation and rates at 1.5 yppl better than average (4.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defensive team). The Hurricanes’ chances for offensive success would probably be hurt even more if Morris can’t go and it looks like Ryan Williams is likely to get the start. Williams averaged a sub-par 5.9 yards per pass play as the starting quarterback at Memphis in 2010 (against teams that would combine to allow 6.3 yppp to an average QB), but I expect him to be better than that with better talent to work with – although he probably won’t be as good as Morris. I actually expect Williams to average the same yards per pass attempt as Morris, but Williams is not nearly as mobile and has a tendency to get sacked more than an average quarterback (9.5% of the time in his 337 career pass plays) while Morris rarely gets sacked (just 3.2% in his career and only 1.9% of the time he drops back this season). I don’t think Williams will get sacked 9.5% of the time, but it’s reasonable to assume he’ll get sacked the national average of 6% of the time. If that’s the case then Miami will be about 0.6 yards per pass play worse than normal.

While Miami has good overall numbers on offense they’ve been held to just 31 total points in 3 games against better than average defensive teams Kansas State, Notre Dame and North Carolina – none of whom are as good defensively as Florida State. So, even if Morris plays and is 100% I still don’t think Miami would score more than 20 points and I certainly likely that Florida State will score 40 points or more given that they average 40 points in their Division 1A games and Miami’s defense is much worse than the average defensive that Florida State has faced. My math model gives Florida State a 62.2% chance of covering in this game and the Seminoles apply to a very good 104-37-1 ATS situation. I’ll take Florida State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -23 ½ points.

3 Star Best Bet
***OREGON ST. (-10.0) 36 Utah 17
20-Oct-2012 7:30PM Pacific
Oregon State has emerged as one of the elite teams in the Pac-12 and the Beavers are now a national player after a 5-0 start against a tough schedule of opponents that include Wisconsin, UCLA, Arizona, and BYU. The Beavers have outgained their tough schedule of foes by an average of 464 yards at 6.2 yards per play to 362 yards at 5.3 yppl, so there is nothing fluky about what is going on with this team. Utah, meanwhile, was supposed to be good, but the offense has stalled and the defense can’t stop the pass and the result is a 1-4 record against Division 1A teams. I went against Utah last week and the Utes managed to cover the spread by one point thanks to a fumble return touchdown and a late covering score but the Beavers are a vastly superior team.

Oregon State’s offense has been 1.1 yppl better than average this season (6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and that offense was even better last week with backup quarterback Cody Vaz leading the way to 7.9 yppl against a very good BYU defense that would give up just 4.4 yppl at home to an average offense. Vaz was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week for his performance, but I’ll still assume that he’s no better than starter Sean Mannion. Oregon State throws the ball more than 40 times a game and the Beavers are very good at putting the ball in the air, averaging 7.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow just 5.7 yppp to an average team. That pass heavy attack matches up really well against a Utah defense that defends the run well (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yprp) but has had trouble defending the pass (7.7 yppp allowed to quarterbacks that would average 6.8 yppp against an average defense). Utah has gave up over 10 yards per pass play to both Arizona State and USC in the last month and Oregon State could approach that number today.

With Oregon State having success moving the ball through the air, the Utes’ struggling attack will have a tough time keeping pace. Utah has averaged only 18.6 points on 282 yards per game at 4.5 yards per play in 5 games against Division 1A teams that would combine to allow 4.8 yppl to an average team. Freshman quarterback Travis Wilson got his first start last week and Wilson’s numbers have been an upgrade over Jon Hays and I rate the Utes’ attack at only 0.1 yppl worse than average if Wilson plays as well as he has played so far (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average QB). A mediocre offense is likely to struggle against a good Oregon State defense that has been 0.9 yards per rushing play better than average (4.4 yprp against teams that would average 5.2 yprp against an average team) and 0.4 yppp better than average (adjusted for facing Wisconsin with O’Brien at quarterback). My math model projects Utah to average just 5.0 yppl in this game, which should lead to a double-digit loss against what should be a productive Oregon State offense.

My math model gives Oregon State a very good 58.6% chance of covering at -10 points and coach Riley’s teams tend to get better as the season progresses. In fact, Oregon State is 51-27 ATS from game 5 on since Riley returned to Corvallis in 2003. I’ll take Oregon State in a 3-Star Best Bet at -10 or less and for 2-Stars up to -12 points.


2 Star Best Bet
**OHIO ST. (-18.0) 43 Purdue 16
20-Oct-2012 9:00AM Pacific
Ohio State certainly hasn’t been dominating this season (just 3-4 ATS) but the Buckeyes are unbeaten at 7-0 and apply to a 54-11-2 ATS situation that plays on unbeaten teams (and a 19-0 ATS subset of that angle applies). I also don’t mind playing against a Purdue team that is struggling on both sides of the ball and has lost their two conference games by 31 points to Michigan and by 24 points to Wisconsin despite both of those games being at home.

Purdue’s defense has allowed 6.1 yards per rushing play (to Division 1A opponents that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defense) and the Boilermakers are ill equipped to handle Ohio State’s run-oriented attack that has averaged 281 ground yards per game at 6.6 yprp (against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team. Ohio State has faced 4 teams that are worse than average defending the run (Miami-Ohio, UAB, Nebraska, and Indiana) and the Buckeyes have averaged 330 rushing yards at 7.4 yprp in those 4 games. The Boilermakers have given up 779 rushing yards at 7.3 yprp the last two weeks to Michigan and Wisconsin, neither of whom are as good running the ball as Ohio State is. Purdue is average defending the pass and Ohio State is just a bit better than average throwing the ball but my math model projects 349 rushing yards at 7.5 yprp for the Buckeyes in this game – and 525 total yards at 7.3 yards per play. That should lead to over 40 points of offense.

Ohio State’s defense appears to be on tilt after allowing 87 points the last two weeks, but the Buckeyes have allowed 6.2 yppl in those games against Nebraska and Indiana, who are teams that would combine to average 6.1 yppl against an average defense – so they haven’t been as bad as they appear. For the season the Buckeyes are also 0.1 yppl worse than average, allowing 5.6 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.5 yppl against an average team. That mediocre defense should be able to limit a sub-par Purdue attack that’s scored more than 17 points only against bad defensive teams Eastern Kentucky, Eastern Michigan, and Marshall. On the other hand, the 3 games in which the Boilermakers scored 17 points or fewer were all against good defensive teams and Ohio State is not a good defensive team either. Purdue’s offense has averaged only 5.1 yppl in 5 games against Division 1A opponents that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but the Boilermakers are 0.9 yppl worse than average offensively if you take out the stats they accumulated in garbage time, including 108 yards on 7 plays last week against Wisconsin’s backups. My math model projects just 302 yards at 4.4 yppl and only 16.3 points for Purdue in this game and my model gives Ohio State a solid 55.9% chance of covering based solely on the math. That chance goes up given that the Buckeyes are in a good situation and I’ll take Ohio State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less.

2 Star Best Bet
**Northern Ill (-15.5) 45 AKRON 21
20-Oct-2012 9:00AM Pacific
Akron showed some signs of life last week in scoring a couple of late touchdowns to lose by 6 points after falling behind by 20 points at Ohio, but the Zips are likely to get stream rolled today by a Northern Illinois team that hasn’t shown much mercy this season – winning their 3 games as double-digit favorites by an average margin of 34 points while going 3-0 ATS in those games.

The Huskies struggled early in the season offensively under new quarterback Jordan Lynch (just 4.4 yards per play against Iowa opening week), but Lynch has turned into a star – averaging 7.8 yards per pass play while racking up 952 yards on the ground in just 7 games. The Huskies have averaged 6.9 yards per play or more in all 3 of their MAC games (3-0 ATS) and Akron will be the worst defense they’ve faced since averaging 10.4 yppl against Army in week 3. The Zips have allowed 43 points on 520 yards per game and 6.6 yppl to Division 1A teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. Northern Illinois is better than the average offense that Akron has faced so it’s pretty likely the Zips will give up more than their 43 point average in this game. My math model projects 558 yards at 7.4 yppl for the Huskies.

Akron’s offense looks like it’s a pretty decent unit because they’ve averaged 27.5 points in their 6 games against 1A opposition, but the Zips have averaged only 5.3 yppl despite facing teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average attack – so they’re significantly worse than average offensively. Akron has only faced two average or better defensive team this season and they scored just 14 points on 4.1 yppl at home against Central Florida and only 10 points at 4.2 yppl at home against Bowling Green. UCF and Bowling Green both rate just slightly better than average defensively but Northern Illinois is 0.3 yppl better than average on defense – allowing just 4.9 yppl and 19.7 points to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team. My math model projects 411 yards at 4.9 yppl for Akron in this game but they could score less given how they’ve been dominated by the defenses they’ve faced that are close to as good as the Huskies’ defense.

My math model give Northern Illinois a solid 56.2% chance of covering and the Huskies apply to a 41-8 ATS big road favorite momentum situation while Akron applies to a negative 98-183-1 ATS situation. The Zips also have a habit of losing big to decent teams and they’re just 5-18 ATS in their last 23 conference games against teams with a win percentage of .333 or higher, including 2-10 ATS at home and 1-10 ATS as a double-digit underdog. I’ll take Northern Illinois in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 or less and for 3-Stars at -14 or less.

2 Star Best Bet
**San Jose St. (-10.5) 37 TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO 20
20-Oct-2012 11:00AM Pacific
Texas San Antonio won their first 5 games of the season against a schedule of horrible teams and then they lost by 20 points last week against a bad Rice team. San Jose State, meanwhile, started the season with a close 3 point loss at Stanford in which they outgained the Cardinal and then won and covered 4 straight before allowing 13 sacks in a 22 point home loss to Utah State last week. That loss will probably ensure that the Spartans are focused for their first meeting with new conference foe Texas San Antonio and that spells trouble for the Roadrunners.

There’s nothing to explain how San Jose State gave up 13 sacks last week after giving up just 10 total sacks in their first 5 games but I doubt that UTSA’s horrible defense can duplicate what a good Utah State defense did last week to the Spartans. San Jose State actually gained 471 yards of offense despite the 13 sacks and their 5.1 yards per play in that game was actually 0.2 yppl better than average considering Utah State’s defense would allow just 4.9 yppl on the road to an average team. San Jose State’s offense is 0.4 yppl better than average for the season (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Spartans’ quarterback David Fales is deadly accurate (75% completions) and will pick apart a horrible San Antonio pass defense that’s allowed 6.9 yards per pass play in 4 games (excluding their two games against non-Division 1A or 1AA opponents) to quarterbacks that would combine to average just 4.7 yppp against an average defense. San Jose State doesn’t have a good running attack (0.8 yprp worse than average) and they’re only projected to average 4.5 yard per rushing play in this game, but the Spartans are projected to gain 371 aerial yards at 9.6 yppp in this game and should convert on 3rd downs with ease when they need to.

San Antonio’s offense has averaged 5.9 yppl but they’ve faced teams that would allow 6.6 yppl to an average attack and the Roadrunners are projected to gain just 297 total yards at 5.1 yppl in this game against an average Spartans’ defense (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team).

UTSA has played 4 games against Division 1A or 1AA teams and the Roadrunners have averaged 371 yards at 5.9 yppl and allowed 375 yards at 5.8 yppl but they’ve outscored their opponents by an average of 6.7 points because they’re +12 in turnover margin in those 4 games (+6 in interceptions and +6 in fumbles). Having average stats aside from the turnovers is not good considering that the 4 Division 1 teams that Roadrunners have faced are a combined 22 points worse than an average Division 1A team. San Jose State is a better than average team, so I don’t expect UTSA to stay close in this game unless they continue to be lucky with turnovers. That’s not likely given that Fales is an accurate quarterback that’s thrown just 3 interceptions in 6 games and Roadrunners quarterback Eric Soza (just 1 pick all season) is a bit more likely to make mistakes when stepping way up in class after facing nothing but bad defensive teams so far. My math model picks the turnovers about even (a slight edge to UTSA) and San Jose State will likely win by 20 points or more if turnovers are even. My math model gives the Spartans a 60% chance of covering in this game and I don’t expect the Spartans to take this game lightly after last week’s 22 point loss (they’re 8-2 ATS after a loss lately). Spartans’ head coach Mike MacIntyre can also point to UTSA’s 5-1 straight up record to help keep his troops focused. We know that good record is a function of the nation’s easiest schedule and the luck of turnovers, but the Spartans players just see 5-1 next to Texas San Antonio’s name in the standings and they are looking to atone for last week’s bad loss. I’ll take San Jose State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -13 ½ points or less and for 3-Stars at -10 or less.

2 Star Best Bet
**Texas Tech (-1.0) 30 TCU 20
20-Oct-2012 12:30PM Pacific
I pegged Texas Tech as an underrated team a few weeks ago and the Red Raiders had an uncharacteristic turnover prone game in their loss to Oklahoma, a team that has proven to be a lot better than I thought. The Red Raiders were only outgained by 20 total yards against the Sooners, so I gladly jumped on them against last week as a Best Bet and they destroyed West Virginia 49-14. I was also on TCU as a Best Bet upset winner last week but the Horned Frogs are not nearly as good as the Red Raiders and my math likes Texas Tech again this week.

Texas Tech is known for their offense and the Red Raiders have certainly been impressive on that side of the ball, averaging 538 yards at 6.9 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team, but the defense is the reason they’re underrated. Tech has allowed just 3.9 yppl this season against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team and they limited the very good attacks of Oklahoma and West Virginia to just 4.9 yppl combined the last two weeks. Those teams would combine to average 6.7 yppl against an average defense, so the Red Raiders have been just as good defensively (on a relative basis) against the good offensive teams as they were against the bad offensive teams earlier in the season.

TCU’s offense started out the season looking potent but the Horned Frogs lost their best running back Waymon James and their star quarterback Casey Pachall and the Frogs have been just 0.1 yppl better than average the last two weeks with Trevone Boykin at quarterback (5.7 yppl against Iowa State and Baylor, who would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average team). That’s not going to be good enough to do much damage against an elite Texas Tech defense and my math model projects just 272 total yards at 4.2 yppl for the Frogs in this game.

TCU’s defense was good early in the season against bad offensive teams but the Horned Frogs have allowed 7.1 yppl the last two weeks to Iowa State and Baylor and are now 0.2 yppl worse than average for the season on the defensive side of the ball – allowing 5.6 yppl to Division 1A teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defense. Texas Tech is 1.2 yppl better than average offensively and my math projects 443 total yards at 7.1 yppl for the Red Raiders in this game. TCU does have a huge edge in special teams and a 0.5 edge in projected turnovers but my math model gives Texas Tech a 58.4% chance of covering based solely on the math. The Red Raiders apply to a 42-89 ATS road favorite letdown situation but TCU applies to a 36-73-1 ATS letdown situation that is based on their upset win. The record is 1-1 when those angles intersect, so the technical analysis is a wash and I’ll go with the math. I’ll take Texas Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -2 ½ points or less.

2 Star Best Bet
**TULSA (-19.5) 44 Rice 16
20-Oct-2012 12:30PM Pacific
Tulsa barely covered for me last week, but the Golden Hurricane apply to the same strong statistical matchup indicator that applied to them last week and that indicator is now 83-19-2 ATS, including 5-0 ATS this season. That’s one of those angles that I play pretty much every time it comes up as long as the line is reasonable. The line on this game is reasonable, as my math model favors Tulsa by 20 ½ points, and Tulsa should dominate the line of scrimmage, which is what the indicator is all about.

Tulsa is not as explosive offensively this season because new quarterback Cody Green is not a good passer, but the Golden Hurricane won’t need to throw much in this game against a perennially bad Rice run defense that has allowed 257 yards per game at 6.7 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average only 4.8 yprp against an average defensive team). Tulsa would prefer to run the ball, which they do 46 times per game for an average of 246 yards, so this matchup works for them. Rice has faced two good running teams this season, UCLA and Louisiana Tech, and the Owls gave up 350 rushing yards in both of those games at an average of 9.0 yprp. Rice is bad defending the pass too, so Green should have some success through the air when he needs to throw the ball. Rice allowed just 14 points in each of their last two games against bad offensive teams Memphis and UTSA but the Owls have allowed 43.6 points per game to their 5 opponents that aren’t horrible offensively and Tulsa should score about that many here.

This game is also a good matchup for Tulsa’s defense, which is a bit worse than average defending the pass but is very good against the run, allowing just 3.7 yards per rushing play (to teams that would combine to average 4.5 yprp to an average team). Rice, with Taylor McHargue at quarterback, is a team that needs to run to be successful, as McHargue is not a good passing quarterback (he’s averaged just 5.6 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.0 yppp to an average QB). With Tulsa likely to keep McHargue’s scrambling in check the Owls will probably struggle a bit offensively.

In addition the very strong 83-19-2 ATS statistical matchup indicator Tulsa also applies to a 91-37-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation and I’ll take Tulsa in a 2-Star Best Bet at -21 points or less.

2 Star Best Bet
**S. Florida (+7) 29 LOUISVILLE 28
20-Oct-2012 12:30PM Pacific
Louisville is unbeaten at 6-0 and South Florida is riding a 4 game losing streak, but there is a good argument in favor of USF being the better team. South Florida’s 4 game losing streak is simply a function of the Bulls being -11 in turnover margin in those 4 games, which is something that’s not likely to continue going forward. South Florida is actually a good team that is going to start to win when they stop turning the ball over the way they have been. Louisville, meanwhile, isn’t that much better than an average Division 1A team and the Cardinals’ unbeaten record has them overrated.

Louisville does have a good offense that has averaged 6.2 yards per play against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.7 yppl to an average team. The Cardinals’ defense, however, has allowed an average of 5.7 yppl to teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average defensive team. As you can see, Louisville is just 0.1 yppl better than average overall from the line of scrimmage, 0.5 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively.

South Florida is clearly better than that from the line of scrimmage, as the Bulls rate at 0.5 yppl better than average offensively (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl) and 0.1 yppl better than average defensively (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team) in their 5 games against Division 1A opponents.

My math model projects USF with a 0.2 yppl advantage in this game, but Louisville should run more plays and the Cardinals have a projected edge of 26 totals yards because of that. South Florida, however, is better than Louisville in special teams so this game comes down to turnovers. USF certainly won’t cover if they are once again -3 or worse in turnovers, as they’ve been in recent weeks, but it’s highly unlikely that will be the case. Bulls’ quarterback B.J. Daniels does have a history of throwing more interceptions than a normal quarterback and my math model projects an edge of 0.5 turnovers in favor of Louisville. Overall, Louisville’s slight edge in projected total yards and their turnover advantage isn’t enough to justify them being favored by more than a field goal and my math model gives South Florida a 54.6% chance of covering at +7 points based solely on the math (that percentage is based on the historical performance of my math model). Adding to the Bulls’ chance to cover is a very good 281-147-5 ATS contrary indicator that favors South Florida. The fact that an unbeaten team is only favored by 7 points at home against a 2-4 team that is on a 4 game losing streak is an indication that these teams are really very competitive. In fact, teams that have lost 3 or more games in a row are 78-39-1 ATS against teams that have won 3 or more consecutive games if the team on a winning streak is not favored by more than 8 points. The low line is telling us something and my math model is verifying that South Florida is at least as good as Louisville. I’ll take South Florida in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more. USF is a Strong Opinion at less than +7.

2 Star Best Bet
**WESTERN KENTUCKY (-3.0) 31 UL Monroe 21
20-Oct-2012 1:00PM Pacific
UL Monroe got some notoriety early in the season with their win at Arkansas and an overtime loss at Auburn the next week, but they won the Arkansas game because Razorbacks’ star quarterback Tyler Wilson got hurt and the backups are horrible and a close loss at Auburn isn’t all that impressive given how bad the Tigers have been. Western Kentucky is the team that should be getting some notoriety, as the Hilltoppers have reeled off 15 consecutive spread wins. My math model was on them last week and I had to pass because Troy had a mountain of strong situations on their side. The situation worked as Troy jumped out to an early lead but Western Kentucky ultimately prevailed and covered anyway. My math model is on the Hilltoppers again this week and this time there are no situations that are keeping me from playing them.

UL Monroe is actually a pretty good team, especially by Sun Belt standards, as the Warhawks have been average offensively (6.1 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppl to an average team) and average defensively (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average defense). That defensive rating adjusts for UL Monroe playing a half against Arkansas’ horrible backup quarterback and a full game against Tulane’s horrible backup quarterback. Being an average team is going to go a long way in the Sun Belt, but Western Kentucky is much better than average.

The Hilltoppers have averaged 5.7 yards per play on offense against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team and they’ve scored 26 points or more against all teams not named Alabama. The Western Kentucky defense has been really good in allowing just 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit. That takes into account that they faced Kentucky in week 3 before the Wildcats starting quarterback Maxwell Smith got injured and there is a monumental difference between Smith and his backups. That defense is good against the run (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yprp) and good against the pass (5.5 yards per pass play allowed to quarterbacks that would combine to average 6.4 yppp against an average defense), so that unit should slow down an average UL Monroe attack.

You’d figure that at team that has covered the spread in 15 straight games would eventually have the line catch up to them but that is not the case here as my math model gives Western Kentucky a 56.1% chance of covering the spread as a 3 point favorite in this game. I’ll take Western Kentucky in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less. The Hilltoppers can be considered a Strong Opinion if they are favored by more than 3 points.

Strong Opinion
TEMPLE (+5.5) 23 Rutgers 24
20-Oct-2012 9:00AM Pacific
Rutgers is 6-0 and ranked in the top-20 but the Scarlet Knights are not really a good team at all. They’re a lucky team. Rutgers has averaged only 5.4 yards per play while allowing 5.0 yppl to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 5.3 yppl and allow 5.7 yppl to an average team (adjusted for facing Arkansas with Tyler Wilson at quarterback and Tulane with Griffin at QB). So, the Knights are 0.3 yppl worse than average on offense and 0.3 yppl better than average on defense. Rutgers is unbeaten because they’re +13 in turnover margin and such good fortune is not likely to continue. Rutgers’ quarterback Gary Nova may indeed continue to avoid interceptions (he’s thrown just 2) but being +3 in fumble margin is random and the Rutgers’ defense is not going to continue averaging 2.0 interceptions per game, especially given that their pass defense is slightly worse than average otherwise. Temple quarterback Chris Coyer has thrown only 2 interceptions on 153 career pass attempt because he takes off running when nobody is open – so Rutgers isn’t likely to have more than 1 pick in this game and if turnovers are close to even then there is a very good chance that the Scarlet Knights lose this game straight up.

Temple isn’t as good as I thought they’d be, rating at 0.1 yppl worse than average offensively without injured RB Matt Brown and rating at 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively, but the Owls are very good on special teams and their great punting (40.5 yards average net punt) and punt return team (31.4 yards net for their opponents) will help them in field position, which is important in a game in which neither teams figures to move the ball particularly well. My math model projects Rutgers with only a slight 0.2 turnover edge and favors the Scarlet Knights by only 1 point in this game. Temple is likely to cover even if Rutgers is +1 in turnovers, so there is room for error here. Temple is also 11-1-1 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog. I’ll consider Temple a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more.

Strong Opinion
MARYLAND (+3.0) 22 No Carolina St. 19
20-Oct-2012 12:30PM Pacific
Maryland is a very good defensive team and a horrible offensive team and teams like that tend to play close games. The underdog in Maryland games is 5-0-1 ATS so far and I like the Terrapins to cover as a small home dog today against a worse than average NC State team that appears to be overrated now thanks to their upset win over Florida State two weeks ago.

NC State’s offense is 0.3 yards per play worse than average (5.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and the Wolfpack are 0.4 yppl worse than average defensively, allowing 6.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.7 yppl against an average team. Maryland is a below average team from the line of scrimmage too, but overall a bit better than NC State. The Terrapins are horrible offensively, averaging just 4.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team and I rate the Terps’ attack at 1.4 yppl worse than average without top running back Wes Brown, whose 4.5 ypr average, while not good, is far better than the other 3 running backs that have averaged only 2.2 ypr on 110 carries this season. Maryland’s strength is a defense that has yielded just 4.4 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team.

Overall, NC State is 0.7 yppl worse than average while Maryland is 0.4 yppl worse than average without Brown at running back. The Wolfpack are projected to run significantly more plays than Maryland but these teams are still about even and the Terrapins are at home and should be favored based on how each team has played so far this season. Maryland also has the only advantage that either offense has in this game, as Terrapins’ quarterback Perry Hills (6.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 6.6 yppp to an average quarterback) is projected to average 7.3 yppp in this game against a horrible NC State pass defense that’s given up 7.6 yppp to a collection of quarterbacks that would combine to average only 6.2 yppp against an average defensive team. Maryland won’t be able to run the ball without Brown (I project only 2.1 yprp) but hopefully the coaching staff is smart enough to throw the ball more often than they run it. NC State is projected to average just 3.3 yprp and 4.6 yppp against Maryland’s dominating defense so they don’t have anything that’s likely to work for them offensively. My math model gives Maryland a solid 55.4% chance of covering at +3 points and the Terrapins apply to a 59-18-1 ATS home momentum situation. NC State did have a bye week since beating Florida State and coach O’Brien is 21-11 ATS after a bye week, so I’ll resist making this game a Best Bet, but I’ll consider Maryland a Strong Opinion at +3 points or more.

Strong Opinion
Baylor (+10) 37 TEXAS 43
20-Oct-2012 5:00PM Pacific
You can expect an exciting, high scoring game when Baylor is involved, as the Bears’ average score this season is 48-42. Texas has had their share of high scoring games too and this figures to be fun game to watch. I’m not going to spend too much time discussing the matchup since this play has nothing to do with line value. But, as you probably know, Baylor is great on offense (568 yards at 7.5 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and horrible on defense (6.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). Overall, the Bears are a good team (1.2 yppl better than average from the line of scrimmage) and they’re capable of competing with a Texas team that is 1.1 yppl better than average offensively and 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively. The Longhorns’ defense figures to get worse without the services of injured star DE Jackson Jeffcoat, who has 4 sacks and 11 total tackles for loss in just 6 games.

Overall, my math model favors Texas by 11 points, so the line is fair, but Baylor applies to a very reliable 53-8 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation and a 40-9 ATS subset of a 112-48-3 ATS statistical matchup indicator that has also been a consistent winner for me. Texas, meanwhile, applies to a 34-78-4 ATS negative momentum situation that is based on their back-to-back losses. It doesn’t get too much better than that from a technical perspective and I’ll consider Baylor a Strong Opinion at +10 points or more.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness
Legend-Kent State

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness


8* Las Vegas Insider is on TCU at 3;30 ET.

Texas Tech and TCU were longtime SWC rivals but with the breakup of that conference after the 1995 season, Tech became part of the Big 12 while the Horned Frogs were ‘banished’ to the WAC, then C-USA and then settled in the MWC. TCU agreed to join the Big East but before that took place, the Horned Frogs found themselves in the “new” Big 12 (10 teams), created by the losses of first Colorado and Nebraska, then Missouri and Texas A&M. All’s well that ends well! Texas Tech has played all these years since in the more high-profile conference but under Gary Patterson’s leadership (since 2001), TCU has made the bigger ‘splash’ in the CFB world. Patterson enters his 12th year at Fort Worth and he’s put together nine, 10-win plus seasons, including the school’s memorable 13-0 season of 2010 which included a 21-19 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin (TCU finished No. 2 in the final AP poll that season, trailing only Auburn, the national champs). These schools last met back in 2006 (TCU won 12-3 at home) but it’s the Red Raiders who come in as the ranked team this year (No. 18 in the AP) and are the small road favorite. However, both schools appeared in the first BCS standings (released last Sunday), 5-1 Texas Tech at No. 17 and 5-1 TCU at No. 23. While Patterson’s an “old vet” at Fort Worth, Tommy Tuberville is in just his third season at Lubbock. His Red Raiders went 8-5 in 2010 (including a bowl win) but last year, after shocking Oklahoma in Norman as four-TD underdogs 41-38 to reach 5-2 (ranked 19th), Tech lost their final five games to finish 5-7, allowing 51.2 PPG during the team’s final five-game slide. Now Tech lost at home to Oklahoma this year 41-20 but that’s the only blemish on Tech’s record. As for the team's defense, despite the 41 points allowed to the Sooners, the Red Raiders are allowing a modest 16.3 PPG (tied-17th) and only 243.0 YPG (4th-best). QB Seth Doege threw for 4,004 yards last year (28-10 ratio) and is on pace for another 4,000-yards season this year (assuming Tech plays 13 games). However, he already has 21 TD throws, putting him on pace for around 45 TD passes in 2012. The running game averages 168.3 YPG (4.9 YPC) and features a pair of RBs, Williams (376 YR / 6.1 YPC) and Stephens (319 YR / 5.5 YPC) plus a 5-7 former WR named Foster, who has just five catches this season but 291 yards rushing (5.7 YPC). TCU is still adjusting to life without QB Casey Pachall (66.0% with 10 TDs and one INT in the 1st four games), who has withdrawn from school after his arrest for drinking and driving. His replacement, Trevone Boykin struggled at home vs Iowa St on Sep 29 (three INTs), as the Cyclones ended TCU’s 12-game winning streak (was longest-active in CFB). It’s also worth noting that it marked just TCU’s FOURTH home loss (against 41 wins), since Patterson suffered his only losing season at TCU back in 2004 (5-6). However, Boykin bounced back in a big way last Saturday, completing 22 of 30 for 261 yards and four TDs (zero INTs) plus added 56 yards rushing and a fifth TD, in a 49-21 win at Baylor. Of course, the Baylor defense in NO WAY, resembles that of Texas Tech. TCU’s defense has returned to its “old ways” in 2012, after allowing 21.5 PPG in 2011. That ended a stretch in which the Horned Frogs hadn’t allowed more than 18.7 PPG in a year since that lone losing season of 2004. TCU is allowing 14.5 PPG in 2012 (ranks 11th) and a very solid 300.8 YPG. The key to TCU’s defensive revival this year is the unit leads the nation in turnovers forced with 20 (14 INTs and six fumbles). That “D” will get a HUGE test from Texas Tech on Saturday but the Horned Frogs catch the Red Raiders fresh off the team's shocking 49-14 rout of then-No. 5 West Va in Lubbock last weekend. That terrific win came one week after Tech was ‘spanked’ at home by Oklahoma, which turned a 14-13 second-quarter deficit into a 41-14 lead entering the 4th quarter (Sooners won, 41-20). This makes a THIRD straight very tough assignment for Tech (on the road after two home games) and playing a bitter old rival, which as noted, has won 41 of its previous 45 home games. No reason I can think of why Tech is the small road favorite in this one. It’s Homecoming for TCU and with three of its final five games on they road (at Okla St, West va and Texas) plus home games vs Kansas St and Oklahoma left, this season could “get away” from Patterson very quickly with a loss in this one. Not to worry, as TCU comes up big with Tech falling a little ‘flat’ after embarrassing West Va and Heisman-favorite, Geno Smith.

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Kent State at 3:30 ET.

Western Michigan went ‘bowling’ last season and with 14 starters returning plus an easier schedule than in 2011, the Broncos were the favorite of many to win the MAC West this year. QB Alex Carder was coming off back-to-back 3,000-yard passing seasons (3,873 & 3,334) while also topping 30 TD passes in each (31 & 30). The Broncos opened the season at Illinois and were a ‘sexy’ pick to win. However, a mediocre Illinois team handled them 24-7. WMU has alternated wins and losses since and enters this game 3-4 overall, including 1-2 in the MAC. Carder threw for 1,049 yards and eight TDs in the first four games, but a hand injury suffered in a 30-24 home win over UConn (Sep 24) has kept him sidelined for the past three weeks. In his absence, Tyler Van Tubbergen (great name, if nothing else) has stepped in and been streaky. Van Tubbergen completed 23-of-28 attempts for 283 yards and five TDs in the team's triumph over UMass but in losses to Toledo and Ball State, he’s thrown five INTs. I’m not much on WMU’s defense either, as the unit has allowed 37 points and 30 points in MAC losses to Toledo & Ball St plus in the home win over UConn, allowed 425 yards and 24 points to a Huskies team which is averaging only 320.6 YPG and 19.0 PPG on the season. While WMU’s s 2012 season is NOT going as hoped, the same can’t be said at Kent State. The Golden Flashes are used to success on the college basketball court but even though the football team began play back in 1920, Kent’s lone bowl appearance came way back in 1972. However, Kent State enters this game 5-1 (four straight wins), including starting 3-0 in MAC play. A win here and the Golden Flashes will be “bowl-eligible” after just seven games! What’s going on? Kent played a poor game in losing 47-14 at Kentucky back on Sep 8 but in the team’s five wins, the Flashes are averaging an impressive 36.2 PPG. QB Spencer Keith has been no better than serviceable, completing 55.7 percent of his pass attempts for 849 yards and just five TDS but has also thrown just only two interceptions in 140 attempts. The running game has been the key to Kent’s offense this season, averaging 215.3 YPG on 5.0 YPC with 14 TDs. Archer (625 YR / 10.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Durham (525 YR / 4.2 YPC / 6 TDs) have both been major contributors, with Archer being the MAC’s most exciting offensive player (his lone pass attempt ended in a 24-yard TD). He has 16 catches (225 yards with three TDs) to go along with his excellent rushing numbers plus has returned three kickoffs for TDs in 2012 (98, 99 and 98 yards!). Archer leads the MAC and is 5th in the FBS in scoring at 12.0 PPG. I’m sold, Kent’s football team finally makes a mark on the gridiron, after a 40-year wait. ‘Bowling’ anyone?

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

My 10* CFB Week 8 Goin' Over Total is on FAU/South Alabama Over at 3:30 ET.

This is one ‘ugly’ game, as South Alabama hosts Florida Atlantic. The Jaguars began their football program in 2009, playing a mixture of FCS, Div II and NAIA schools the first two seasons. They went 7-0 in 2009 and 10-0 in 2010. They were considered an FCS Independent in 2011, going 6-4 with games against two FBS schools, NC St (lost 33-25) and Kent St (lost 33-25). The Jags moved to the Sun Belt in 2012, as a transitional FBS team. They opened vs UT-San Antonio, a transitional FBS team playing in the WAC this season. It was an exciting game, with UTSA winning 33-31 on a 51-yard FG with just 16 seconds remaining. The Jags then beat Nicholls St 9-3 the following weekend but have lost four in a row, since. The Owls of FAU were 1-11 last season in the Sun Belt last season, in Howard Schnellenberger’s final season (not the way he wanted to go out). Carl Pelini , the DC at Nebraska under his brother Bo, accepted the job in Boca Raton, his first head coaching gig. The Owls opened with a 7-3 home win over Wagner but have since lost five in a row. Now many will say that with FAU averaging 13.2 PPG and South Alabama averaging only 16.0 PPG, this is a ‘dead under!” I STRONGLY disagree. Let’s note that FOUR of FAU’s five straight losses have come by 14 points or more and the fact that the Owls have allowed 36.4 PPG since the 7-3 Wagner win, has to give South Alabama hopes of scoring, especially since it’s Homecoming. Let’s remember, the Owls have now lost 19 of their last 20 games against FBS opponents. As for South Alabama's “D,” the Jags have allowed 30 or more points in all five of their 2012 losses, allowing an average of 32.3 per. I began by saying that this was an ‘ugly’ game. It can turn ‘beautiful’ VERY QUICKLY when it goes OVER!

Good luck...Larry

[Mr. IWS]

Larry Ness

My 10* CFB Bailout Blowout is on Arizona at 10:00 ET.

I’m a big fan of Washington’s head coach Steve Sarkisian and his knack of stepping up against ranked teams, especially at home. I had the Huskies in their 17-13 upset of Stanford back on Sep 27 and took them plus-14 last Saturday at home vs USC, covering in 24-14 loss. Note that in those two games, the Huskies “D”was just terrific, holding the Cardinal without an offensive TD in that contest and to just 235 yards on 10 FDs. The high-powered Trojans did not score in the second half last Saturday and one of USC’s three TDs came on a blocked punt return. Preseason Heisman favorite Matt Barkley, threw for just 167 yards. However, the Huskies are a different team on the road. Now ‘ll admit, trips to LSU (lost 41-3 while allowing 437 yards) and to Oregon (lost 52-21 while allowing 497 yards) are tough spots but note the Huskies are now 4-14 SU on the road under Sarkisian (including TY), going just 1-4 last year. Washington allowed 41.6 PPG in its five road games last season (that includes a 31-14 win at Utah) and doesn’t include them allowing 67 points to Baylor and RG3 in the Alamo Bowl. QB Keith Price was quite good last season, throwing for 3,063 yards while completing 66.9% with 33 TDs and 11 INTs. However, he’s WAY off that pace this season, topping 200 yards passing in just ONE of six games with just seven TDs and six INTs through six games. He gets little help from his running game, which averages just 131.0 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Rich-Rod is in his first season with Arizona and his Wildcats opened 3-0 but then lost their next three games. The first loss was 49-0 up at Oregon but the last two have been heartbreakers. Arizona fell behind Oregon St in Tucson 17-0 but rallied to lead 21-17. The game was back-and-forth after that, with Arizona going ahead 35-31 with 5:34 left in the game. However, the “D” was unable to stop the Beavers, who scored the game-winning TD with 1:09 left in the game. Then, up in Palo Alto vs Stanford, the Wildcats got into a shootout with the Cardinal, only to lose 54-48 in OT. Arizona got a much-needed bye last weekend and I really like them here. QB Matt Scott has picked up Rich-Rod’s offense quickly, completing 64.4% with 13 TDs and seven INTs. He’s passed for 403 and 491 yards the last two games, with six TD passes (that’s against ranked teams Oregon St & Stanford!). RB Carey has topped 100 yards in four of six games this year (670 YR / 5.3 YPC), including 247 yards the last two games (5.4 YPC). Yes, the Arizona defense ranks 96th in points allowed (32.7 PPG) and 110th in yards allowed (478.8) but I don’t think Price and his Huskies can trade points with Scott and his Wildcats. I’ve mentioned Washington’s road woes under Sarkisian and let me add going back even further, Washington is a poor 11-23-1 ATS on grass fields the last 12 seasons. Expect Rich-Rod’s spread option to ‘EXPLODE’ here vs Washington, with the Huskies being unable to keep pace. Lay the point

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer - CFB 3* MORNING KNOCKOUT G.O.Y.!


Scott Spreitzer | CFB Side Sat, 10/20/12 - 12:00 PM
triple-dime bet 388 Oklahoma St. -14.0 (-110) SportsInteraction vs 387 Iowa St.


My #1 play for Saturday's CFB: I'm laying the points with Oklahoma State on Saturday. This is the first time since 2006 that I have bet and released Oklahoma State with GOY status attached to its name. We won that one, my CFB 2006 overall Game of the Year, when the Cowboys crushed Baylor 66-24. I am confident that this one will end in blowout fashion, also. This is obviously a huge revenge spot for the Cowboys, who lost their chance for a potential spot in last year's BCS title game when they were upset 37-31 on a November night in Ames, Iowa. It was an emotional day for OSU after finding out earlier in the day that the coach of their women's basketball team and three others died in a plane crash. It certainly made it tough to focus and ISU was able to pull the major upset (27-point underdogs). But here we aˆre, a season later, and OSU is laying 13 points less...even though this one is in Stillwater. Yes, some have moved on, including QB Brandon Weeden who now QBs the Cleveland Browns. But Oklahoma State still owns huge speed and overall talent advantages over the slow-footed and offensively challenged Cyclones. ISU won at TCU for us a couple of weeks ago. They did so while getting outgained 455-350. ISU caught TCU at the perfect time and last week faced Kansas State in Ames, with the Wildcats in a sandwich spot. The Cyclones, despite being in terrific situations the last three games, have averaged just 256.7 yards per game on 4.4 yards per play. They have averaged just 3.43 yards rushing per game and have hit just 50% of their pass attempts. ISU has 29 fewer first downs than their opponents over the last three games. This is a Cyclone offense ill-equipped to hang with the firepower that should be on display for the home team. And for the first time in weeks, ISU will be the sole focus of an opponent. The 'Clones head to Stillwater just 3-12 ATS off a conference loss by 7 or fewer points. They have covered just 9 of their last 33 after a game where they rushed for less than 100 yards. And finally, Oklahoma State is on a 13-3 ATS run at home against teams playing .600 to .750 football. Revenge will be sweet for OSU. I'm laying the points with Oklahoma State. Thanks! GL! Scott Spreitzer.

[Mr. IWS]

Scott Spreitzer | CFB Side Sat, 10/20/12
double-dime bet 408 W. Kentucky 2.5 vs 407 La.-Monroe

[Mr. IWS]

Big Al

GOY South Florida

Air Force

[poopoo333]

Ben Burns

October 20, 2012

3:30 PM NCAAF Brigham Young vs. Notre Dame **EARLY NATIONALLY TELEVISED BLOCKBUSTER** Burns' *10* EARLY Saturday Afternoon S-H-O-O-T-O-U-T! (10-2 L12 TOTALS!)

Pinnacle @ Over 39.5 -105

[poopoo333]

BEN BURNSExpert: Ben BurnsEvaluation: October 20, 2012 - 3:00 PM
Reason For Pick:
I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. Utah State is having a great season and has been one of the most profitable teams around. However, its not a team accustomed to laying anywhere close to this many points.

The largest previous pointspread that Utah State was asked to lay was 22 vs. UNLV. They won that game by exactly 22 points. They did beat the Southern Utah Thunderbirds by 31, a game that they were favored by 21 for. Southern Utah is a 1AA team though. Now, Utah State is being asked to lay an extra 10 points against a 1A team.

Keep in mind that New Mexico State hasn't lost by more than 27 points all season.

Also note that New Mexico State, which is coming off a bye, is 8-2 ATS in October the past few seasons and that New Mexico State has played Utah State tough in recent seasons.

In fact, the last three meetings have ALL been decided by five points or less, New Mexico State goig 3-0 ATS. Last year's game had a final score of 24-21. It was 27-22 the previous season and New Mexico State won outright 20-17 in 2009.

Utah State has not been a strong favorite and I look for this one to prove closer than expected once again. *9

[poopoo333]

BEN BURNS I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Regulars will recall that I successfully backed Iowa State in this matchup last year. The Cyclones were roughly 4-TD underdogs in that game and they won outright. Last year's game set up very nicely for the Cyclones. I feel that this one sets up very nicely for the Cowboys though and I expect a vastly different result from last year.
Here's an excerpt from last year' playing on Iowa State: "...with all due respect to the Cowboys, I feel this line will prove to be too high. Off back to back wins, the Cyclones are arguably playing their best football right now. One of those victories was a 41-7 destruction of Texas Tech - so, the Cowboys weren't the only team to blow out the Red Raiders recently. The Cyclones have allowed only 17 total points their last two games and they've ran the ball for more than 600 yards in those games. They won't be able to "shut" down the Cowboys but that's at least the right formula for "slowing" them down. Off a bye, they've had plenty of extra time to prepare for this dangerous attack. The Cowboys are playing the second of b2b road games here. Off such a huge blowout and with a bye and then Oklahoma, their biggest game of the year, on deck - they could easily get caught looking past the Cyclones here. Iowa State, on the other hand, is playing its home finale. Given the situation and that the Cyclones haven't lost by more than 23 at home all year (they've hosted the likes of Iowa, A@M and Texas) and with this number having climbed from its already high opener, I feel that we're getting excellent value with the home underdog ... "

While the line is roughly half what it was last season, the Cowboys are now playing at home. Obviously, the Cyclones will have their full attention. After all, last year's loss spoiled their dreams of an undefeated season. Throw in the fact that its an important game in the Big 12 standing AND that a win will vault Mike Gundy past Pat Jones for the most wins in Oklahoma State history AND there are plenty of reasons for the Cowboys to really want this one.

Perhaps due in part to the fact that they were off a disappointing loss to Texas and perhaps partly due to the fact that they were looking ahead to this week's game, the Cowboys didn't cover last time out. They did still win though (20-4 at Kansas) which should give them their positive momentum and swagger back.

On the other hand, the Cyclones are off a tough loss against K-State in their last game. They had a chance to pull the upset in that game and that would have gone a really long way in making this season special. To come close only to eventually fall short can be tough.

Last time, remember, the Cyclones were playing their home finale and were off back to back wins. This time, not only is Iowa State off a loss but Oklahoma State is playing its homecoming game. In other words, the situation is entirely different from what it was last season.

Even with last week's ATS loss, the Cowboys are a terrific 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) in October the past few seasons. During that time, they're 19-8 ATS (24-3 SU) when laying points, including a 5-2 ATS (7-0 SU) mark as home favorites in the 10.5 to 21 range. I expect the revenge-minded Cowboys, who destroyed the Cyclones in the last meeting here, to improve on that stat in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

[poopoo333]

BEN BURNS Evaluation: October 20, 2012 - 7:00 PMReason For Pick:
I'm playing on FLORIDA. Some are surprised by the Gators' fast start. This is a talented and experienced team though. I still don't feel that they're getting enough credit here.

Thsi is a team which checks in at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. They've won on the road at venues like Texas A@M, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, the latter two of those road wins coming by double-digits.

Beating up on Kentucky 38-0 wasn't that big a deal. However, beating LSU by eight points was significant.

The Gators are confident and realizing that the sky is the limit for them. They're also getting healthier.

Center Jon Harrison, left tackle Xavier Nixon and guard James Wilson are all expected to return. Linebacker Jelani Jenkins will also likely return and defensive end Dominique Easley is expected to be do the same.
On the other hand, the Gamecocks are banged-up. Most importantly, Spurrier has said that Marcus Lattimore may not play and that Kenny Miles is expected to start. Even if Lattimore is available, he's likely to be at less than 100%.

Note that Miles hasn't been very effective in limited action, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry with just one touchdown. A senior, Miles hasn't averaged more than four yards per carry since his freshman season in 2009.

In addition to Lattimore, other significant players dealing with some health concerns include defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and defensive tackle Kelcy Quarles. While Clowney is currently probably, Quarles is listed as doubtful.

The Gamecocks are a talented team and they're off to an impressive start. Last week's loss figures to be a bit tough to immediately shake off though, as they were starting to entertain thoughts of an undefeated season. When a team actually believes an undefeated season is possible, losing that first one can be difficult to bounce back from.

While the Gamecocks won here in 2010, the Gators have still dominated them here in The Swamp. I expect them to resume that domination Saturday afternoon, covering the small number along the way. *9